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At least 397 records · Page 22

Sensitivity Analysis of the Human Research Program’s Impact 1.0 Model

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Leave One Out (LOO) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on non-linear simulation models like the IMPACT Model. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The “partial” part is due to the adjustments made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. LOO removes a medical condition from test suite and calculates the change in the outcome. This is used to identify the influence of the condition input in the model The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number of occurrences of each of the one hundred plus IMPACT medical conditions generated over the simulations, and the IMPACT outputs from the MEDPRAT mathematical model. The outputs total task time lost (TTL), number of return to definitive care (RTDC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMPACT team will report the results of using PRCC and LOO on IMPACT 1.0. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty, and input values could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMPACT 1.0.

Sensitivity Anaylsis↗

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗

Adjoint Sensitivity of FARMS to the Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents the development and application of an adjoint model for investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to forecasted variables from WRF-Solar. The first part of this study focuses on developing an adjoint model for the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS) to investigate the input variables having the highest sensitivity to global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI), which are the output variables. The applicability and usefulness of the adjoint sensitivity approach are demonstrated by conducting a sensitivity analysis under various scenarios defined by low, medium, and high values for the input variables. This preliminary study uses elasticity values to understand the sensitivity of solar radiation to the input variables (e.g. solar zenith angle, Angstrom turbidity coefficient, and cloud optical depth) of FARMS. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained sensitivity results for FARMS, as well as future research steps that will lead to the development of high-quality probabilistic solar forecasts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Generalized Sensitivity Calculation in the Monte Carlo Wielandt Method

Recently the Monte Carlo (MC) adjoint-weighted perturbation (AWP) methods with k-adjoint have been developed for the k sensitivity calculations. In order to extend the MC AWP methods to estimate sensitivities of a ratio of two reaction rates, Perfetti and Rearden devised a MC sensitivity calculation method with the generalized adjoint expressed by the intra-generational and intergenerational effects. Aufiero et al. suggested the collision history-based approach to calculate sensitivities of responses in the form of ratios of linear or bilinear functions by applying the correlated sampling for multi-generational collisions. However these methods may require a huge size of computer memory to save inter-generational contributions proportional to the number of the sensitivity tallies. In order to reduce memories required for the k-adjoint estimation, the present authors proposed the AWP algorithm in the MC Wielandt method where multiple generations from a fission source neutron are simulated in single history calculations. In this paper, we present perturbation formulations to estimate sensitivities for general tallies such as volume flux, reaction rates, etc. in the MC Wielandt calculations. The proposed method has been implemented into the Seoul National University MC code, McCARD and tested in two-group infinite homogeneous problems. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deterministic-Monte Carlo Hybrid Methods for Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations

The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package includes several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) capabilities. For generating sensitivities with CE data, three methods are available in SCALE 6.3.0: (1) the iterated fission probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) IFP with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance Characterization (CLUTCH) with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Currently, it is difficult to generate accurate sensitivities with large reflectors when using the CLUTCH method, specifically with fissionable and hydrogenous materials. To address this issue, the work presented herein examines a methodology to calculate the adjoint flux externally with the 3D deterministic SN transport code DENOVO in SCALE; the result is then read directly into the CLUTCH-TSUNAMI sequence. This hybridization method replaces the Monte Carlo F*(r) calculation in CLUTCH while still utilizing the forward calculation. The critical benchmark HEU-MET-FAST-028-001 is used to generate sensitivities based on the inability of CLUTCH to generate accurate sensitivities. Results from the hybrid method appear to generate sensitivity values that are in excellent agreement with direct perturbations. Although further testing is needed, the method provides promising results for the development and utility of a hybrid method for use in TSUNAMI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sensitivity of summer ensembles of fledgling superparameterized U.S. mesoscale convective systems to cloud resolving model microphysics and grid configuration

The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-like events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed and Simulated Sensitivities of Spring Greenup to Preseason Climate in Northern Temperate and Boreal Regions: Climate control on spring phenology

Vegetation phenology plays an important role in regulating land-atmosphere energy, water, and trace-gas exchanges. Changes in spring greenup (SG) have been documented in the past half-century in response to ongoing climate change. We use normalized difference vegetation index generated from NOAA's advanced very high resolution radiometer data in the Global Inventory Modeling and Monitoring Study project over the 1982–2005 period, coupled with climate reanalysis (Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction) to investigate the SG responses to preseason climate change in northern temperate and boreal regions. We compared these observed responses to the simulated SG responses to preseason climate inferred from the Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over 1982–2005. The observationally inferred SG suggests that there has been an advance of about 1 days per decade between 1982 and 2005 in the northern midlatitude to high latitude, with significant spatial heterogeneity. The spatial heterogeneity of the SG advance results from heterogeneity in the change of the preseason climate as well as varied vegetation responses to the preseason climate across biomes. The SG to preseason temperature sensitivity is highest in forests other than deciduous needleleaf forests, followed by temperate grasslands and woody savannas. The SG in deciduous needleleaf forests, open shrublands, and tundra is relatively insensitive to preseason temperature. Although the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason precipitation is smaller than the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason temperature, the biomes that are more sensitive to temperature are also more sensitive to precipitation, suggesting the interactive control of temperature and precipitation. Finally, in the mean, the CMIP5 ESMs reproduced the dominant latitudinal preseason climate trends and SG advances. However, large biases in individual ESMs for the preseason period, climate, and SG sensitivity imply needed model improvements to climate prediction and phenological process parameterizations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Leptin-induced basal Akt phosphorylation and its implication in exercise-mediated improvement of insulin sensitivity

Highlights: • Acute exercise stimulates leptin release while chronic exercise decreased basal serum leptin. • Leptin increased basal levels of insulin signaling and glucose uptake. • Leptin decreased insulin-stimulated insulin signaling and glucose uptake. • Blocking JAK2 signaling decreased leptin-stimulated insulin signaling. • Blocking JAK2 signaling restored leptin-attenuated insulin sensitivity. Physical exercise is an efficient therapeutical tool in the management of insulin resistance (IR) and related metabolic diseases. Leptin, the well-known obesity hormone and the absence of which leads to IR, showed controversial effects on IR as research continues. Thus, in this study, a detailed investigation of the effect of leptin on exercise-mediated improvement of insulin sensitivity and its underlying mechanism was carried out. Using a rat model of chronic or acute swimming exercise training, we found that serum leptin increased 1 h after either acute exercise or the last session of chronic exercise, when impaired insulin action was observed in previous reports. However, chronic exercise reducd basal serum leptin levels and promoted insulin sensitivity compared with sedentary controls or rats subjected to one bout of aerobic exercise. Our animal results indicated the potential linkage between leptin and insulin sensitivity, which is further investigated in the skeletal muscle L6 cells. Leptin treatment in L6 cells promoted the basal levels of insulin signaling as well as glucose uptake, while blocking JAK2 signaling with either pharmacological intervention (JAK2 inhibitor AG490) or genetic manipulation (siRNA knockdown) decreased the basal levels of insulin signaling. Furthermore, leptin treatment inhibited insulin-stimulated insulin signaling and glucose uptake, while blocking JAK2 signaling restored leptin-attenuated insulin sensitivity. Taken together, our results demonstrated that reduced serum leptin, at least in part, contributes to exercise-mediated improvement of insulin sensitivity, indicating JAK2 as a potent therapeutical target of insulin resistance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Role of CTGF in sensitivity to hyperthermia in ovarian and uterine cancers

Even though hyperthermia is a promising treatment for cancer, the relationship between specific temperatures and clinical benefits and predictors of sensitivity of cancer to hyperthermia is poorly understood. Ovarian and uterine tumors have diverse hyperthermia sensitivities. Integrative analyses of the specific gene signatures and the differences in response to hyperthermia between hyperthermia-sensitive and -resistant cancer cells identified CTGF as a key regulator of sensitivity. CTGF silencing sensitized resistant cells to hyperthermia. CTGF small interfering RNA (siRNA) treatment also sensitized resistant cancers to localized hyperthermia induced by copper sulfide nanoparticles and near-infrared laser in orthotopic ovarian cancer models. Lastly, CTGF silencing aggravated energy stress induced by hyperthermia and enhanced apoptosis of hyperthermia-resistant cancers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Understanding how chemical structure affects ignition-delay-time $\phi$-sensitivity

$\phi$-sensitivity is the change in ignition delay time (IDT) with respect to the fuel-to-air equivalence ratio ($\phi$). High $\phi$-sensitivity is a desirable fuel property for applications in advanced compression ignition and multi-mode engine designs. Understanding how $\phi$-sensitivity depends on chemical structure is essential for selecting promising biofuels from the ever-growing list of proposed candidates. Here, we investigate the effect of chemical structure on $\phi$-sensitivity with experiment, simulation, and theory. Experimental Advanced Fuel Ignition Delay Analyzer (AFIDA) measurements for 2,4-dimethylpentane and diisopropyl ether provide evidence that branching and functional groups strongly impact $\phi$-sensitivity. Further insights into this dependence are obtained with 0-D kinetic simulations with existing mechanisms for n-pentane, diethyl ether, 3-pentanone, n-heptane, 2-methylhexane, 2,4-dimethylpentane, and 2,2,3-trimethylbutane. Quantum mechanical (QM) G4 calculations of low-temperature reactions help explain the observed experimental and simulation trends. Specifically, these QM calculations provide theoretical estimates of the ketohydroperoxide (KHP) dissociation rates, the HO 2 formation rates from peroxy radical (ROO), and the “cross-over” temperatures, i.e., the temperature at which ROO dissociation is favored compared to hydroperoxyl radical (QOOH) formation. Each of these reaction rates is compared to the n-alkane reference point to determine the impact of branching and different functional groups. Although kinetic mechanisms typically assume that KHP dissociation rates are invariant of chemical environment, our QM results suggest that this rate can span a range of roughly two orders of magnitude. We also discuss the importance of including the peroxy-hydroperoxy (OO-OOH) hydrogen transfer reaction for branched ethers. Finally, the insights gained assist in proposing a highly $\phi$-sensitive compound, namely, isopropyl propyl ether.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A crystal plasticity finite element model embedding strain-rate sensitivities inherent to deformation mechanisms: Application to alloy AZ31

We report the fundamental power-law relationship representing the flow rule in crystal visco-plasticity ensures uniqueness in the selection of slip systems accommodating imposed plastic strain-rates. The power-law relationship also introduces an artificially high strain-rate sensitivity in crystal plasticity simulations, unless a high value of the power-law exponent is used. However, the use of high values for the exponent is limited by numerical tractability. This paper presents a numerical method implemented in a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model for embedding any value of the power-law exponent reflecting the true material strain-rate sensitivity. Importantly, the method does not increase computation time involved in the simulations. The enhanced CPFE model is used to interpret and predict a complex strain-rate sensitive response and microstructural evolution of AZ31 Mg alloy. Measured values of strain-rate sensitivity for slip and twinning modes are used in the simulations. Calculations show that the model successfully captures the phenomena pertaining to the effect of changing applied strain-rate on the mechanical response including flow stress and evolution of texture and twinning for a broad range of strain-rates ranging from 10 -3 s -1 to 10 3 s -1 and loading orientations in tension and compression. It is shown that such predictions are a consequence of not only relative amounts of slip and twinning activities driven by a set of accurately characterized hardening law parameters but also values of the strain-rate sensitivities inherent to individual deformation mechanisms. Besides, the model validates the measured strain-rate dependency of deformation mechanisms while accurately reproducing the mechanical data. Hence, the model can be used to verify and further refine or infer measured strain-rate sensitivity per deformation mechanism by reproducing experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗

Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO 2

Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global vegetation dynamics and their responses to drought, yet sensitivity changes in response to climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with a dynamic statistical learning approach to examine changes in the sensitivity of vegetation greenness to precipitation over the past four decades. We observe a robust increase in precipitation sensitivity (0.624% yr –1 ) for drylands, and a decrease (–0.618% yr –1 ) for wet regions. Using model simulations, we show that the contrasting trends between dry and wet regions are caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ). eCO 2 universally decreases the precipitation sensitivity by reducing leaf-level transpiration, particularly in wet regions. However, in drylands, this leaf-level transpiration reduction is overridden at the canopy scale by a large proportional increase in leaf area. The increased sensitivity for global drylands implies a potential decrease in ecosystem stability and greater impacts of droughts in these vulnerable ecosystems under continued global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biome-scale temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration revealed by atmospheric CO2 observations

Abstract The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration regulates how the terrestrial carbon sink responds to a warming climate but has been difficult to constrain observationally beyond the plot scale. Here we use observations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from a network of towers together with carbon flux estimates from state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to characterize the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration, as represented by the Arrhenius activation energy, over various North American biomes. We infer activation energies of 0.43 eV for North America and 0.38 eV to 0.53 eV for major biomes therein, which are substantially below those reported for plot-scale studies (approximately 0.65 eV). This discrepancy suggests that sparse plot-scale observations do not capture the spatial-scale dependence and biome specificity of the temperature sensitivity. We further show that adjusting the apparent temperature sensitivity in model estimates markedly improves their ability to represent observed atmospheric CO 2 variability. This study provides observationally constrained estimates of the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration directly at the biome scale and reveals that temperature sensitivities at this scale are lower than those based on earlier plot-scale studies. These findings call for additional work to assess the resilience of large-scale carbon sinks to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. Here, a sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Layer thickness dependent strain rate sensitivity of Cu/amorphous CuNb multilayer

We report strain rate sensitivity of crystalline materials is closely related to dislocation activity. In the absence of dislocations, amorphous alloys are usually considered to be strain rate insensitive. However, the strain rate sensitivity of crystalline/amorphous composites is rarely studied, especially at nanoscale. In this study, we show that the strain rate sensitivity of Cu/amorphous CuNb multilayers is layer thickness dependent. At small layer thickness (below 50 nm), the multilayers demonstrate limited strain rate sensitivity; at relatively large layer thickness (above 100 nm), the strain rate sensitivity of multilayers is close to that of the single layer Cu film. Finally, mechanisms that lead to size dependent variation of strain rate sensitivity in these multilayers are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗