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NASA NTRS2018

Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding

The large population and major economic assets along New York City's extensive waterfront face exposure to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), an advisory group of academic and private-sector experts, provides the city with scientific guidance on future climate risks. Here we highlight current NPCC research on sea level rise, coastal flooding, with some of the City's current and planned responses.Twentieth century SLR in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.2-1.9 cm/decade), underscoring a greater regional risk. In 2015, the NPCC projected a 2080s SLR of 46-99 cm relative to 2000-2004 (25th -75th percentile) at the Battery, with high-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) of 1.9 m by 2100. Growing evidence of potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) suggests the possibility of even higher future sea levels. We therefore present a new low probability, yet high impact SLR scenario for New York City, which incorporates these ice sheet instabilities. The new SLR projections will be combined with coastal flood return period curves for the 100-year storm flood levels. Related ongoing research examines changes in storm characteristics, surge--sea level rise interactions, and mapping of neighborhoods at risk.Guided by NPCC findings, New York City undertakes programs to strengthen coastal defenses, tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC in collaboration with the city, continues to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, such as inland floods and coastal storms, and to develop stronger links with community-based stakeholder groups. New York City's plans to enhance coastal urban resiliency stand as a model for other urban coastal centers as they prepare for climate change.

Gornitz, Vivien↗

DOE OSTI2023

COMSOL Models and Simulation Results for Closed-Loop Geothermal Systems with Thermal Enhancements

The Closed-Loop Geothermal Working Group and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have studied the performance of disc-shaped and linear thermal enhancements (conductive material introduced around a wellbore) in closed-loop geothermal systems. COMSOL models were developed to investigate the increase in heat production in systems with thermal enhancements compared to those without, across a range of scenarios. This dataset includes two example COMSOL models, a summary of the simulation results, and a link to an accompanying paper. Studied are idealized versions of two thermal enhancement designs: (1) existing or newly created fractures surrounding the wellbore, filled with highly conductive material, and (2) a 'fishbone structure,' where short wellbores are drilled radially outward from the main wellbore and filled with highly conductive material.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational Investigation of the Catalytic Hydrodeoxygenation of Propanoic Acid over a Cu(111) Surface

Cu-based alloy catalysts have recently been investigated experimentally for the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of biomass-derived organic acids. Here, the HDO of propanoic acid (PAc) has been studied over Cu(111) by mean-field microkinetic modeling based on parameters obtained from first-principles calculations. Models were developed for the gas- and liquid-phase HDO in condensed water and 1,4-dioxane. In agreement with experimental observations, the gas-phase PAc conversion rate is low at 573 K and increases in liquid water by 1 order of magnitude. In all reaction environments, the decarboxylation mechanism is dominant at low hydrogen partial pressures less than 0.1 bar, and the C–COO bond dissociation is the rate-controlling elementary step. This observation contrasts with the rate-controlling step identified over most group VIII metal surfaces, which is the C–OH bond dissociation in the decarbonylation mechanism. At high hydrogen (H 2 ) partial pressures greater than 10 bar, the HDO of PAc produces propionaldehyde that can readsorb and further react through decarbonylation to produce C 2 alkane products, which is conceptually different from the low H 2 partial pressure scenario. At high H 2 partial pressures, the initial hydrogenation at the carbonyl carbon of PAc becomes the rate-controlling elementary step.

Catalysts↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Wildfire Risk and Promoting Equity through Optimal Configuration of Networked Microgrids

As climate change increases the risk of large-scale wildfires, wildfire ignitions from electric power lines are a growing concern. To mitigate the wildfire ignition risk, many electric utilities de-energize power lines to prevent electric faults and failures. These preemptive power shutoffs are effective in reducing ignitions, but they could result in wide-scale power outages. Advanced technology, such as networked microgrids, can help reduce the size of the resulting power outages; however, even microgrid technology might not be sufficient to supply power to everyone, thus forcing hard questions about how to prioritize the provision of power among customers. In this paper, we present an optimization problem that configures networked microgrids to manage wildfire risk while maximizing the power served to customers; however, rather than simply maximizing the amount of power served in kilowatts, our formulation also considers the ability of customers to cope with power outages, as measured by social vulnerability, and it discourages the disconnection of particularly vulnerable customer groups. To test our model, we leverage a synthetic but realistic distribution feeder, along with publicly available social vulnerability indices and satellite-based wildfire risk map data, to quantify the parameters in our optimal decision-making model. Our case study results demonstrate the benefits of networked microgrids in limiting load shed and promoting equity during scenarios with high wildfire risk.

distribution systems↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probalistic Finite Elements (PFEM) structural dynamics and fracture mechanics

The purpose of this work is to develop computationally efficient methodologies for assessing the effects of randomness in loads, material properties, and other aspects of a problem by a finite element analysis. The resulting group of methods is called probabilistic finite elements (PFEM). The overall objective of this work is to develop methodologies whereby the lifetime of a component can be predicted, accounting for the variability in the material and geometry of the component, the loads, and other aspects of the environment; and the range of response expected in a particular scenario can be presented to the analyst in addition to the response itself. Emphasis has been placed on methods which are not statistical in character; that is, they do not involve Monte Carlo simulations. The reason for this choice of direction is that Monte Carlo simulations of complex nonlinear response require a tremendous amount of computation. The focus of efforts so far has been on nonlinear structural dynamics. However, in the continuation of this project, emphasis will be shifted to probabilistic fracture mechanics so that the effect of randomness in crack geometry and material properties can be studied interactively with the effect of random load and environment.

Liu, Wing-Kam↗

NASA NTRS2013

Service Oriented Robotic Architecture for Space Robotics: Design, Testing, and Lessons Learned

This paper presents the lessons learned from six years of experiments with planetary rover prototypes running the Service Oriented Robotic Architecture (SORA) developed by the Intelligent Robotics Group (IRG) at the NASA Ames Research Center. SORA relies on proven software engineering methods and technologies applied to space robotics. Based on a Service Oriented Architecture and robust middleware, SORA encompasses on-board robot control and a full suite of software tools necessary for remotely operated exploration missions. SORA has been eld tested in numerous scenarios of robotic lunar and planetary exploration. The experiments conducted by IRG with SORA exercise a large set of the constraints encountered in space applications: remote robotic assets, ight relevant science instruments, distributed operations, high network latencies and unreliable or intermittent communication links. In this paper, we present the results of these eld tests in regard to the developed architecture, and discuss its bene ts and limitations.

service oriented architecture↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Changes to the Appearance of Optical Lightning Flashes Observed From Space According to Thunderstorm Organization and Structure

Optical lightning observations from space reveal a wide range of flash structure. Lightning imagers such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper and Lightning Imaging Sensor measure flash appearance by recording transient changes in cloud top illumination. The spatial and temporal optical energy distributions reported by these instruments depend on the physical structure of the flash and the distribution of hydrometeors within the thundercloud that scatter and absorb the optical emissions. This study reported herein explores how flash appearance changes according to the scale and organization of the parent thunderstorms with a focus on mesoscale convective systems. Clouds near the storm edge are frequently illuminated by large optical flashes that remain stationary between groups. These flashes appear large because their emissions can reflect off the exposed surfaces of nearby clouds to reach the satellite. Large stationary flashes also occur in small isolated thunderstorms. Optical flashes that propagate horizontally, meanwhile, are most frequently observed in electrified stratiform regions where extensive layered charge structures promote lateral development. Highly radiant “superbolts” occur in two scenarios: embedded within raining stratiform regions or in nonraining boundary/anvil clouds where optical emissions can take a relatively clear path to the satellite.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Proof-of-Concept Trajectory Designs for a Multi-Spacecraft, Low-Thrust Heliocentric Solar Weather Buoy Mission

A new solar weather mission has been proposed, involving a dozen or more small spacecraft spaced at regular, constant intervals in a mutual heliocentric circular orbit between the orbits of Earth and Venus. These solar weather buoys (SWBs) would carry instrumentation to detect and measure the material in solar flares, solar energetic particle events, and coronal mass ejections as they flowed past the buoys, serving both as science probes and as a radiation early warning system for the Earth and interplanetary travelers to Mars. The baseline concept involves placing a mothercraft carrying the SWBs into a staging orbit at the Sun-Earth L1 libration point. The mothercraft departs the L1 orbit at the proper time to execute a trailing-edge lunar flyby near New Moon, injecting it into a heliocentric orbit with its perihelion interior to Earth s orbit. An alternative approach would involve the use of a Double Lunar Swingby (DLS) orbit, rather than the L1 orbit, for staging prior to this flyby. After injection into heliocentric orbit, the mothercraft releases the SWBs-all equipped with low-thrust pulsed plasma thrusters (PPTs)-whereupon each SWB executes a multi-day low-thrust finite bum around perihelion, lowering aphelion such that each achieves an elliptical phasing orbit of different orbital period from its companions. The resulting differences in angular rates of motion cause the spacecraft to separate. While the lead SWB achieves the mission orbit following an insertion burn at its second perihelion passage, the remaining SWBs must complete several revolutions in their respective phasing orbits to establish them in the mission orbit with the desired longitudinal spacing. The complete configuration for a 14 SWB scenario using a single mothercraft is achieved in about 8 years, and the spacing remains stable for at least a further 6 years. Flight operations can be simplified, and mission risk reduced, by employing two mothercraft instead of one. In this scenario: the second mothercraft stays in a libration-point or DLS staging orbit until the first mothercraft has achieved nearly 180 separation from the Earth. The timing of the second mothercraft's subsequent lunar flyby is planned such that this spacecraft will be located 180 from the first mothercraft upon completion of its heliocentric circularization maneuvers. Both groups of satellites then only have to spread out over 180 to obtain full 360 coverage around the Sun.

Muller, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Collaborative Web-Based Approach to Planning Research, Integration, and Testing Using a Wiki

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Integrated Vehicle Health Management program touches on many different research areas while striving to enable the automated detection, diagnosis, prognosis, and mitigation of adverse events at the aircraft and system level. At the system level, the research focus is on the evaluation of multidisciplinary integrated methods, tools, and technologies for achieving the program goal. The participating program members form a diverse group of government, industry, and academic researchers. The program team developed the Research and Test Integration Plan in order to track significant test and evaluation activities, which are important for understanding, demonstrating, and communicating the overall project state and project direction. The Plan is a living document, which allows the project team the flexibility to construct conceptual test scenarios and to track project resources. The Plan also incorporates several desirable feature requirements for Plan users and maintainers. A wiki has proven to be the most efficient and effective means of implementing the feature requirements for the Plan. The wiki has proven very valuable as a research project management tool, and there are plans to expand its scope.

Delaney, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Early Design Choices: Capture, Model, Integrate, Analyze, Simulate

I. Designs are constructed incrementally to meet requirements and solve problems: a) Requirements types: objectives, scenarios, constraints, ilities. etc. b) Problem/issue types: risk/safety, cost/difficulty, interaction, conflict, etc. II. Capture requirements, problems and solutions: a) Collect design and analysis products and make them accessible for integration and analysis; b) Link changes in design requirements, problems and solutions; and c) Harvest design data for design models and choice structures. III. System designs are constructed by multiple groups designing interacting subsystems a) Diverse problems, choice criteria, analysis methods and point solutions. IV. Support integration and global analysis of repercussions: a) System implications of point solutions; b) Broad analysis of interactions beyond totals of mass, cost, etc.

Malin, Jane T.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learned closure of URANS for stably stratified turbulence: connecting physical timescales & data hyperparameters of deep time-series models

Stably stratified turbulence (SST), a model that is representative of the turbulence found in the oceans and atmosphere, is strongly affected by fine balances between forces and becomes more anisotropic in time for decaying scenarios. Moreover, there is a limited understanding of the physical phenomena described by some of the terms in the Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) equations—used to numerically simulate approximate solutions for such turbulent flows. Rather than attempting to model each term in URANS separately, it is attractive to explore the capability of machine learning (ML) to model groups of terms, i.e. to directly model the force balances. We develop deep time-series ML for closure modeling of the URANS equations applied to SST. We consider decaying SST which are homogeneous and stably stratified by a uniform density gradient, enabling dimensionality reduction. We consider two time-series ML models: long short-term memory and neural ordinary differential equation. Both models perform accurately and are numerically stable in a posteriori (online) tests. Furthermore, we explore the data requirements of the time-series ML models by extracting physically relevant timescales of the complex system. We find that the ratio of the timescales of the minimum information required by the ML models to accurately capture the dynamics of the SST corresponds to the Reynolds number of the flow. The current framework provides the backbone to explore the capability of such models to capture the dynamics of high-dimensional complex dynamical system like SST flows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been proposed; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. This paper addresses this gap by designing and developing a controller-hardware-in-the-loop framework to evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. Simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional reference-control grouping-based approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency.

closed-loop validation↗

DOE OSTI2025

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2004

Understanding Columbia's Reentry Problems

Soon after the Space Shuttle Columbia accident occurred last year, a group of CFD analysts from NASA centers and private industry was organized to help determine the cause of the accident. This group was under the direction of the Applied Aeroscience and CFD Branch of the Aeroscience and Flight Mechanics Division at the Johnson Space Center. For external flow simulations, noncommercial CFD codes that specialize in hypersonic or high Mach number flows were used. These tools were used to determine heating rates, pressures, and temperatures for a large number of vehicle damage scenarios. Lockheed Martin Space Operations was called upon to provide CFD support in the area of internal flows within the shuttle wing cavity, and or these simulations, FLUENT 6.1 was chosen. Two large-scale, simplified models were run to understand the flow patterns once a breach of the internal wing cavity was initiated. The results were primarily used to visualize flow patterns within the wing cavity. The first CFD model included the entire left wing without the wheel. well cavity. The purpose of the first model, which did not include the reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) cavity along the wing leading edge, was to visualize the flow field within the wing cavity immediately after the leading edge spar breach, This model assumed that the flow coming into the wing cavity was nom1 to the spar. It included all o f the primary vents that allow for flow between the main cavities of the wing. A six-inch diameter hole was modeled in the spar at the approximate location where the spar breach was judged to have occurred, which was between RCC panels 8 and 9. The results of the modeling showed that at this location, the high temperature, high velocity gas stream entering the wing cavity impinged on the outboard wheel well cavity. Instrumentation in the Shuttle wheel well cavity registered abnormal temperatures during reentry, so the FLUENT results helped support the conclusion of the accident investigation team that the spar breach was in the RCC panel 8-9 area, and that the initial spar breach was likely entering the wing cavity normal to the spar. This model also showed that the flow entering the wing cavity tended to swirl within the cavity just outboard of the wheel well, and did not initially penetrate further into the rear cavities of the wing. The second CFD model was a 2-D simulation of the left wing cavity and the RCC cavity. It was used to visualize the flow through the RCC breach, through the wing spar breach, and into the wing cavity directly outboard of the wheel well. The purpose of this model was to verify whether or not it was possible for the flow to come into the wing cavity normal to the leading edge spar. The results from this 2-D model showed that the internal structure behind the RCC panels probably deflected the flow entering the RCC cavity so that it impinged normal to the spar. As in the 3-D model, this deflected flow stream was found to impinge on the wheel well outer wall. This model again supported the conclusions regarding the location of the spar breach and how the flow behaved inside the wing cavity.

Paul, Thomas H.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Understanding Columbia's Reentry Problems

Soon after the Space Shuttle Columbia accident occurred last year, a group of CFD analysts from NASA centers and private industry was organized to help determine the cause of the accident. This group was under the direction of the Applied Aeroscience and CFD Branch of the Aeroscience and Flight Mechanics Division at the Johnson Space Center. For external flow simulations, noncommercia2 CFD codes that specialize in hypersonic or high Mach number flows were used. These tools were used to determine heating rates, pressures, and temperatures for a large number of vehicle damage scenarios. Lockheed Martin Space Operations was called upon to provide CFD support in the area of internal flows within the shuttle wing cavity, and for these simulations, FLUENT 6.1 was chosen. Two large-scale, simplified models were m to understand the flow patterns once a breach of the internal wing cavity was initiated. The results were primarily used to visualize flow patterns within the wing cavity. The first CFD model included the entire lee wing without the wheel well cavity. The purpose of the first model, which did not include the reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) cavity along the wing leading edge, was to visualize the flow field within the wing cavity immediately after the leading edge spar breach, This model assumed that the flow coming into the wing cavity was normal to the spar. It included all of the primary vents that allow for flow between the main cavities of the wing. A six-inch diameter hole was modeled in the spar at the approximate location where the spar breach was judged to have occurred, which was between RCC panels 8 and 9. The results of the modeling showed that at this location, the high temperature, high velocity gas stream entering the wing cavity impinged on the outboard wheel well cavity. Instrumentation in the Shuttle wheel well cavity registered abnormal temperatures during reentry, so the FLUENT results helped support the conclusion of the accident investigation team that the spar breach was in the RCC panel 8-9 area, and that the initial spar breach was likely entering the wing cavity normal to the spar. This model also showed that the flow entering the wing cavity tended to swirl within the cavity just outboard of the wheel well, and did not initially penetrate further into the rear cavities of the wing. The second CFD model was a 2-D simulation of the left wing cavity and the RCC cavity. It was used to visualize the flow through the RCC breach, through the wing spar breach, and into the wing cavity directly outboard of the wheel well. The purpose of this model was to verify whether or not it was possible for the flow to come into the wing cavity normal to the leading edge spar. The results from this 2-D model showed that the internal structure behind the RCC panels probably deflected the flow entering the RCC cavity so that it impinged normal to the spar. As in the 3-D model, this deflected flow stream was Found to impinge on the wheel well outer wall. This model again supported the conclusions regarding the location of the spar breach and how the flow behaved inside the wing cavity.

Paul, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2024

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services: Preprint

closed-loop validation↗

NASA NTRS1993

Luminosity segregation in galaxy clusters as an indication of dynamical evolution

Theoretical models describing the dynamical evolution of self-gravitating systems predict a spatial mass segregation for more evolved systems, with the more massive objects concentrated toward the center of the configuration. From the observational point of view, however, the existence of mass segregation in galaxy clusters seems to be a matter of controversy. A special problem in this connection is the formation of cD galaxies in the centers of galaxy clusters. The most promising scenarios of their formation are galaxy cannibalism (merger scenario) and growing by cooling flows. It seems to be plausible to consider the swallowing of smaller systems by a dominant galaxy as an important process in the evolution of a cD galaxy. The stage of the evolution of the dominant galaxy should be reflected by the surrounding galaxy population, especially by possible mass segregation effects. Assuming that mass segregation is tantamount to luminosity segregation we analyzed luminosity segregation in roughly 40 cD galaxy clusters. Obviously there are three different groups of clusters: (1) clusters with luminosity segregation, (2) clusters without luminosity segregation, and (3) such objects exhibiting a phenomenon which we call antisegregation in luminosity, i.e. a deficiency of bright galaxies in the central regions of clusters. This result is interpreted in the sense of different degrees of mass segregation and as an indication for different evolution stages of these clusters. The clusters are arranged in the three segregation classes 2, 1, and 0 (S2 = strong mass segregation, S1 = moderate mass segregation, S0 = weak or absent mass segregation). We assume that a galaxy cluster starts its dynamical evolution after virialization without any radial mass segregation. Energy exchange during encounters of cluster members as well as merger processes between cluster galaxies lead to an increasing radial mass segregation in the cluster (S1). If a certain degree of segregation (S2) has been established, an essential number of slow-moving and relative massive cluster members in the center will be cannibalized by the initial brightest cluster galaxy. This process should lead to the growing of the predominate galaxy, which is accompanied by a diminution of the mass segregation (transition to S1 and S0, respectively) in the neighborhood of the central very massive galaxy. An increase of the areal density of brighter galaxies towards the outer cluster regions (antisegregation of luminosity), i.e. an extreme low degree of mass segregation was estimated for a substantial percentage of cD clusters. This result favors the cannibalism scenario for the formation of cD galaxies.

Baier, F. W.↗