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DOE OSTI2019

Robust and Nonrobust Aspects of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability and Mechanisms in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract Robust and nonrobust aspects of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability and mechanisms are analyzed in several 600-yr simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The simulations consist of a set of cases where a few loosely constrained ocean model parameter values are changed, a pair of cases where round-off level perturbations are applied to the initial atmospheric temperature field, and a millennium-scale integration. The time scales of variability differ among the cases with the dominant periods ranging from decadal to centennial. These dominant periods are not stationary in time, indicating that a robust characterization of AMOC temporal variability requires long, multimillennium-scale simulations. A robust aspect is that positive anomalies of the Labrador Sea (LS) upper-ocean density and boundary layer depth and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation lead AMOC strengthening by 2–3 years. Respective contributions of temperature and salinity to these density anomalies vary across the simulations, but in a majority of the cases temperature contributions dominate. Following an AMOC intensification, all cases show that advection of warm and salty waters into the LS region results in near-neutral density anomalies. Analysis of the LS heat budget indicates that temperature acts to increase density in all cases prior to an AMOC intensification, primarily due to losses by sensible and latent heat fluxes. The accompanying salt budget analysis reveals that the salt contribution to density anomalies varies across the cases, taking both positive and negative values.

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Additive-Mixing Fuel Injection (AMFI): A device for robust control and improved performance of high-efficiency LTGC engines

Low-temperature gasoline combustion (LTGC) engines can provide high efficiencies with very low NOx and particulate emissions. Despite these major advantages, methods for controlling LTGC combustion timing, achieving robust autoignition, and good low-load performance have challenged the development of practical LTGC engines. A key reason is that the ideal reactivity of the fuel varies with operating conditions, with low-reactivity fuels working well at high loads and higher-reactivity fuels working better at low loads. This article introduces a new technique called Additive Mixing Fuel Injection (AMFI) that adjusts the reactivity of the gasoline to obtain good performance over the operating map. Moreover, AMFI can provide robust combustion-timing control because it precisely meters very small amounts (0.01–0.6 mm 3 ) of an ignition-enhancing additive into the fuel each engine cycle. The additive used was 2-ethylhexyl nitrate (EHN), a common, inexpensive diesel-fuel ignition improver, but other additives could be used. Because additive amounts are so small, a 2-gal reservoir would be sufficient for medium-duty applications with refilling only at service intervals of about 8000 mi. The AMFI system has been installed on a single-cylinder LTGC research engine and demonstrated to provide robust combustion-timing control over wide ranges of combustion phasing, fueling rate, intake boost, engine speed, and intake temperature. AMFI also increases the fuel’s reactivity sufficiently to greatly reduce or eliminate the need for charge heating, simplifying engine design and significantly increasing thermal efficiency and the maximum load at low-boost conditions. The nitrogen in the EHN produced a modest increase in NOx, but it was mitigated by lower intake temperatures, and NOx emissions remained very low. Finally, the additive increases the sensitivity of autoignition reactions to variations in the local fuel/air mixture within the charge. This allows the use of controlled fuel stratification for improved LTGC-engine performance, and its potential to improve low-load operation was demonstrated.

Dec, John E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards a robust out-of-the-box neural network model for genomic data

The accurate prediction of biological features from genomic data is paramount for precision medicine and sustainable agriculture. For decades, neural network models have been widely popular in fields like computer vision, astrophysics and targeted marketing given their prediction accuracy and their robust performance under big data settings. Yet neural network models have not made a successful transition into the medical and biological world due to the ubiquitous characteristics of biological data such as modest sample sizes, sparsity, and extreme heterogeneity. Here, we investigate the robustness, generalization potential and prediction accuracy of widely used convolutional neural network and natural language processing models with a variety of heterogeneous genomic datasets. Mainly, recurrent neural network models outperform convolutional neural network models in terms of prediction accuracy, overfitting and transferability across the datasets under study. While the perspective of a robust out-of-the-box neural network model is out of reach, we identify certain model characteristics that translate well across datasets and could serve as a baseline model for translational researchers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust COTS objective for diffraction-limited, high-NA, long front working distance imaging

We present a robust objective lens optimized for applications requiring both high numerical aperture (NA) and long front working distance imaging, comprised of all commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) spherical singlet lenses. Unlike traditional designs that require separate collimation and refocusing stages, our approach directly converges imaged light to the back focal plane using a single lens group. Our configuration corrects spherical aberrations and efficiently collects light to achieve diffraction-limited performance across a wide range of wavelengths while simplifying alignment and assembly. Using this approach, we design and construct an example objective lens that features a long front working distance of 61 mm and a clipped NA of 0.30 (limited by an aperture in our experimental setup). We experimentally verify that it achieves monochromatic diffraction-limited resolution at wavelengths from 375 nm to 866 nm without requiring replacement of the lenses or changing the inter-lens spacings, and its performance remains robust across a 46 mm range variation in total length (by adjusting mainly the back working distance). Additionally, we develop a quantitative method to measure the field of view (FOV) using an experimentally calibrated pinhole target. Under 397 nm illumination (i.e., from 40 Ca + ion fluorescence), the objective achieves a resolution of 0.87 μm with a 540 μm FOV. This robust, all-COTS, and versatile design is well-suited for a broad range of experiments, supporting high-precision measurements and exploring quantum phenomena.

Cui, Jiafeng [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2013

Spatial Stochastic Dynamics Enable Robust Cell Polarization

Although cell polarity is an essential feature of living cells, it is far from being well-understood. Using a combination of computational modeling and biological experiments we closely examine an important prototype of cell polarity: the pheromone-induced formation of the yeast polarisome. Focusing on the role of noise and spatial heterogeneity, we develop and investigate two mechanistic spatial models of polarisome formation, one deterministic and the other stochastic, and compare the contrasting predictions of these two models against experimental phenotypes of wild-type and mutant cells. We find that the stochastic model can more robustly reproduce two fundamental characteristics observed in wild-type cells: a highly polarized phenotype via a mechanism that we refer to as spatial stochastic amplification, and the ability of the polarisome to track a moving pheromone input. Moreover, we find that only the stochastic model can simultaneously reproduce these characteristics of the wild-type phenotype and the multi-polarisome phenotype of a deletion mutant of the scaffolding protein Spa2. Significantly, our analysis also demonstrates that higher levels of stochastic noise results in increased robustness of polarization to parameter variation. Furthermore, our work suggests a novel role for a polarisome protein in the stabilization of actin cables. These findings elucidate the intricate role of spatial stochastic effects in cell polarity, giving support to a cellular model where noise and spatial heterogeneity combine to achieve robust biological function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test 78 alternative reopening strategies, using California as an example. This study uniquely considers a wide range of uncertainties and demonstrates that seemingly sensible reopening plans can lead to both unnecessary COVID-19 deaths and days of interventions. We find that plans using fixed COVID-19 case thresholds might be less effective than strategies with time-varying reopening thresholds. While we use California as an example, our results are particularly relevant for jurisdictions where vaccination roll-out has been slower. The approach used in this paper could also prove useful for other public health policy problems in which policymakers need to make robust decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Robust parallel iterative solvers for linear and least-squares problems (Final Technical Report)

The primary goal of this project is to study and develop robust iterative methods for solving linear systems of equations and least squares systems. The focus of the Minnesota team is on algorithms development, robustness issues, and on tests and validation of the methods on realistic problems. 1. The project begun with an investigation on how to practically update a preconditioner obtained from an ILU-type factorization, when the coefficient matrix changes. 2. We investigated strategies to improve robustness in parallel preconditioners in a specific case of a PDE with discontinuous coefficients. 3. We explored ways to adapt standard preconditioners for solving linear systems arising from the Helmholtz equation. These are often difficult linear systems to solve by iterative methods. 4. We have also worked on purely theoretical issues related to the analysis of Krylov subspace methods for linear systems. 5. We developed an effective strategy for performing ILU factorizations for the case when the matrix is highly indefinite. The strategy uses shifting in some optimal way. The method was extended to the solution of Helmholtz equations by using complex shifts, yielding very good results in many cases. 6. We addressed the difficult problem of preconditioning sparse systems of equations on GPUs. 7. A by-product of the above work is a software package consisting of an iterative solver library for GPUs based on CUDA. This was made publicly available. It was the first such library that offers complete iterative solvers for GPUs. 8. We considered another form of ILU which blends coarsening techniques from Multigrid with algebraic multilevel methods. 9. We have released a new version on our parallel solver - called pARMS [new version is version 3]. As part of this we have tested the code in complex settings - including the solution of Maxwell and Helmholtz equations and for a problem of crystal growth.10. As an application of polynomial preconditioning we considered the problem of evaluating f(A)v which arises in statistical sampling. 11. As an application to the methods we developed, we tackled the problem of computing the diagonal of the inverse of a matrix. This arises in statistical applications as well as in many applications in physics. We explored probing methods as well as domain-decomposition type methods. 12. A collaboration with researchers from Toulouse, France, considered the important problem of computing the Schur complement in a domain-decomposition approach. 13. We explored new ways of preconditioning linear systems, based on low-rank approximations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

CALiPER Report 20.3: Robustness of LED PAR38 Lamps

Three samples of 40 of the Series 20 PAR38 lamps underwent multi-stress testing, whereby samples were subjected to increasing levels of simultaneous thermal, humidity, electrical, and vibrational stress. The results do not explicitly predict expected lifetime or reliability, but they can be compared with one another, as well as with benchmark conventional products, to assess the relative robustness of the product designs. On average, the 32 LED lamp models tested were substantially more robust than the conventional benchmark lamps. As with other performance attributes, however, there was great variability in the robustness and design maturity of the LED lamps. Several LED lamp samples failed within the first one or two levels of the ten-level stress plan, while all three samples of some lamp models completed all ten levels. One potential area of improvement is design maturity, given that more than 25% of the lamp models demonstrated a difference in failure level for the three samples that was greater than or equal to the maximum for the benchmarks. At the same time, the fact that nearly 75% of the lamp models exhibited better design maturity than the benchmarks is noteworthy, given the relative stage of development for the technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Next Generation Robust Polarization Photocathodes for EIC

Cornell group developed and characterized robust photocathodes dedicated to generation of spin-polarized electrons by employing a thin protective activation layer of a robust material in place of the conventional cesiation, which is extremely prone to the damage by ions and chemical poisoning. Various thicknesses of Cs2Te and of other materials on III-V semiconductors were studied to understand their effect on the cathode longevity and the polarization state. These photocathodes, as well as new alternative materials, will be eventually tested with high beam current for their operational (lifetime) performance in the Cornell HV DC guns, including a brand- new photoemission high voltage gun that features a cryogenically cooled photocathode holder. The research conducted opens a new and robust way to reach the negative electron affinity for a large class of photocathodes specifically designed to maximize their accelerator performance. It particular, it benefits the future EIC by improving the lifetime available from spin-polarized electron photoemission sources.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust Distributed State Estimator for Interconnected Transmission and Distribution Networks (Final Report RPPR-1)

This project’s objective is to develop a combined transmission and distribution state estimator which accounts for very large system size and model complexity (by way of distributing the computations) and large number of solar PV units connected to the distribution system on multiple feeders. The project not only provides a robust formulation and solution to this problem but also tests the solution by implementing it on a well-established large utility system. It introduces several improvements with respect to the state of the art in existing state estimation software: (a) The developed state estimator (SE) allows robust and accurate monitoring of bidirectional flows in distribution systems which result due to the distributed energy sources which are not observable and thus not incorporated in generation dispatch; (b) Large utility systems with tens of thousands of transmission buses and hundreds of thousands of distribution nodes are difficult to model as a single integrated system. This shortcoming is addressed by developing a “scalable distributed computational framework” which allows splitting the ultra large system models into several small subsystems and coordinating their solution by a robust and practical state estimation formulation; (c) Measurement errors irrespective of their locations are detected and removed by the developed state estimator. Historically, transmission and distribution systems were analyzed and operated as two independent systems. Given the non-transposed short feeder sections, unevenly loaded phases, strictly radial configuration and unidirectional power flows in the absence of remote generation, distribution system analysis was customized to account for these characteristics. However, some of these assumptions are no longer valid (non-radial configuration, bidirectional power flows) and thus distribution system analysis should be revisited. Furthermore, in the past, the interaction between the transmission and distribution systems was quite passive, where distribution substations were modeled as lumped loads in the transmission system model. With substantial generation injected by renewable generation located in the distribution systems, such modeling will no longer be accurate. The developed state estimator facilitates proper monitoring of the interactions between the transmission and distribution systems and enables smart dispatch of these units which are made observable by the state estimator.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Robust Event Diagnostics Platform: Integrating Tensor Analytics and Machine Learning into Real-time Grid Monitoring

The objective of this project is to develop a robust event diagnostics (RED) platform by integrating state-of-the-art tensor analytics and machine learning into real-time grid monitoring. The proposed platform can effectively analyze and discover the information hiding within the provided PMU data for effective real-time grid monitoring. The proposed RED platform provides a set of robust diagnostics tools for grid operation and management, including 1) data quality assessment, 2) data completion, 3) event detection, and 4) robust event classification. All the functionalities of the RED platform can help the operator to make informed decisions and respond in a timely manner. The developed RED platform will serve as an innovative advisory tool to reliably identify key events and discover new insights about the events and grid characteristics in the PMU data, and contribute to the efficient, safe, reliable operation and design of the nation’s electric system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanically-, Thermally, and Chemically-Robust High-Temperature Ceramic Composites

In an effort to lower the levelized cost of electricity generated by Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants, the heat-to-electricity conversion efficiency may be increased by operating such plants with higher turbine inlet temperatures using closed Brayton cycles with high-pressure, supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as the working fluid. For example, if the turbine inlet temperature is raised to ≥750°C, in combination with sCO2 closed Brayton cycles, the relative heat-to-electricity efficiency may be raised by more than 20% (compared to subcritical steam Rankine cycles operating with turbine inlet temperatures ≤550°C). The associated reduction in the cost of dispatchable electricity from such CSP plants (utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage) would be an important breakthrough on the path towards direct competition with fossil-fuel-based plants. A key barrier to achieve such high-temperature efficient operation has been the limited thermomechanical performance of metal alloys used in compact, primary printed circuit- type heat exchangers (PCHEXs) for heat transfer to high-pressure sCO 2 . The maximum allowed stresses for the use of conventional stainless steels and nickel-based superalloys at high sCO 2 pressures (≥20 MPa) decline rapidly at temperatures ≥550°C. This project has been focused on demonstrating the desired high-temperature properties and attractive manufacturing characteristics of mechanically-, thermally-, and chemically-robust ceramic/metal composites (cermets), in order to allow for the use of such composites in primary PCHEXs for heat transfer to sCO 2 at ≥750°C and ≥20 MPa in CSP plants. Prior work with high-temperature, co-continuous carbide/refractory metal cermets, such as ZrC/W composites, has already demonstrated: i) the attractive combination of high-temperature properties exhibited by such materials (e.g., high values of stiffness, failure strength, and thermal conductivity at 800°C), and ii) cost-effective processes for manufacturing PCHEX plates comprised of such cermets with tailorable channel patterns. However, ZrC/W cermets were not found to be inherently corrosion resistant in sCO 2 at 750°C and 20 MPa. While the application of a Cu coating to ZrC/W surfaces, along with a modest addition (50 ppm) of CO to CO 2 , rendered such composites resistant to corrosion for 1000 h in such sCO 2 -based fluids at 750°C, such additional steps would increase the design complexity of such cermet-based components. An alternative approach (the focus of this project) is to develop mechanically-robust, cost- effective cermets that are inherently resistant to high-temperature oxidation in air and CO 2 . The overall goals of this project have been to demonstrate: i) the oxidation resistance of at least one cermet at 750°C in air and in CO 2 (i.e., with a projected annual corrosion ≤30 μm), ii) the mechanically robust nature of at least one cermet at 750°C (i.e., with an average failure strength ≥200 MPa), and iii) that the selected cermet can be manufactured via low-cost forming techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust Real-Time Modeling of Distribution Systems with Data-Driven Grid-Wise Observability (Final Technical Report)

The overall objective of this project is to leverage existing and emerging sensor measurements to develop data-driven observability enhancement algorithms as well as robust state estimation and parameter identification techniques to enable real-time grid-wise monitoring and modeling of loads and distributed energy resources (DERs). The project resulted in a holistic framework with the following key components: 1) data-driven and machine learning-based grid-edge visibility enhancement, 2) robust branch-current-based state estimation (BCSE), and 3) robust real-time steady-state and dynamic-state modeling of loads and DERs. The research outcomes have provided utility companies better network visibility, higher-fidelity load/DER models, and more accurate assessment of DERs’ impacts, thus, facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. The synergistic collaborative project among Iowa State University (ISU), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Electric Power Research Center (EPRC), SIEMENS Industry, Alliant Energy, Cedar Falls Utilities (CFU), and Maquoketa Valley Electric Cooperative (MVEC) to leverage the team’s extensive expertise and experience in power distribution systems, state estimation, online modeling and identification, and DER integrations. The proposed frameworks have been verified with industry adopted software and attempted integrated with existing tool wherever possible

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recent Advances of PyROS: A Pyomo Solver for Nonconvex Two-Stage Robust Optimization in Process Systems Engineering

This poster highlights uncertainty and technical risk reduction capabilities in CCSI2, with a focus on robust optimization. It presents recent advances of the two-stage robust optimization (RO) solver PyROS and applications to advanced energy systems optimization. To demonstrate the computational performance and reliability of PyROS, a benchmarking study on a library of over 8,500 small-scale RO problems is presented. Further, PyROS is used to obtain robust system designs of a MEA-based CO2 absorber under uncertainty in the thermodynamic property models for a variety of CO2 capture rate threshold requirements. Overall, the results demonstrate that the PyROS solver, including recent extensions to multi-stage RO settings, provides a reliable avenue to optimize the design and operation of advanced energy systems subject to various sources of parametric uncertainty.

Sherman, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recent Advances of PyROS: A Pyomo Solver for Nonconvex Two-Stage Robust Optimization in Process Systems Engineering

Sherman, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2019

Identifying Parameter Space for Robust Stability in Nonlinear Networks: A Microgrid Application

As modern engineering systems grow in complexity, attitudes toward a modular design approach become increasingly more favorable. A key challenge to a modular design approach is the certification of robust stability under uncertainties in the rest of the network. In this paper, we consider the problem of identifying the parametric region, which guarantees stability of the connected module in the robust sense under uncertainties. We derive the conditions under which the robust stability of the connected module is guaranteed for some values of the design parameters, and present a sum-of-squares (SOS) optimization-based algorithm to identify such a parametric region for polynomial systems. Using the example of an inverter-based microgrid, we show how this parametric region changes with variations in the level of uncertainties in the network.

Kundu, Soumya↗

DOE OSTI2018

Robust decentralized frequency control: A leaky integrator approach

We investigate the robustness of the so-called leaky integral frequency controller for the power network. In particular, using a strict Lyapunov function, we show the closed-loop system is robust in the input-to-state stability sense to measurement noise in the controller. Moreover, an interesting and explicit trade-off between controller performance and robustness is discussed and illustrated using a benchmark study of the 39-bus New England reference network.

Weitenberg, Erik↗