Results for “risk objectives” — Page 22

NASA NTRS2026

Raising TRL of Your Lunar Payload

Preparing payloads for the lunar surface requires rigorous testing that accurately captures the extreme environmental and operational conditions. This presentation provides an overview of the lunar relevant test capabilities at NASA JSC’s Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) laboratories as well as the Energy System Test Area (ESTA) Lunar Development and Test Facility. These facilities allow teams to assess hardware performance in dusty vacuum environments, characterize interactions with high fidelity lunar regolith simulants, evaluate mechanical and thermal durability, and understand the effects of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impacts—critical factors for certifying payloads that will operate on the lunar surface or in orbit. While Lunar power challenges such as variable illumination, extreme temperatures, and dust driven degradation will be briefly summarized, the focus of this talk is on how JSC’s test infrastructure enables developers to validate designs, reduce mission risk, and ensure compatibility with CLPS and Artemis objectives. NASA JSC’s expertise and experience help industry, academic, and government teams prepare robust hardware ready for successful delivery and operation on the surface of the Moon.

Lunar Regolith Simulant↗

NASA NTRS2026

Raising TRL of Your Lunar Payload

Preparing payloads for the lunar surface requires rigorous testing that accurately captures the extreme environmental and operational conditions. This presentation provides an overview of the lunar relevant test capabilities at NASA JSC’s Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) laboratories as well as the Energy System Test Area (ESTA) Lunar Development and Test Facility. These facilities allow teams to assess hardware performance in dusty vacuum environments, characterize interactions with high fidelity lunar regolith simulants, evaluate mechanical and thermal durability, and understand the effects of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impacts—critical factors for certifying payloads that will operate on the lunar surface or in orbit. While Lunar power challenges such as variable illumination, extreme temperatures, and dust driven degradation will be briefly summarized, the focus of this talk is on how JSC’s test infrastructure enables developers to validate designs, reduce mission risk, and ensure compatibility with CLPS and Artemis objectives. NASA JSC’s expertise and experience help industry, academic, and government teams prepare robust hardware ready for successful delivery and operation on the surface of the Moon.

Laboratories↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The Spaceguard Survey - Protecting the earth from cosmic impacts

The conclusions of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop (May 1991-January 1992) are summarized. Near-earth asteroids and short-period comets constitute about 90 percent of potential earth-impacting projectiles. The greatest risk is from those with diameters greater than 1 km. The objective of a near-earth object survey is to find such objects, calculate their long-term orbital trajectories, and identify any that may impact the earth over the next several centuries. There will generally be a period of at least several decades to take corrective action if any potential earth-impactors are found. A region of space extending outward from the earth to approximately the inner edge of the main asteroid belt must be monitored. Detection can be by reflected sunlight or infrared. Though faint, the objects should be readily detectable with ground-based telescopes, and thus there is no need for a more expensive space-based system.

Morrison, David↗

NASA NTRS1990

Evaluation of a proposed expert system development methodology: Two case studies

Two expert system development projects were studied to evaluate a proposed Expert Systems Development Methodology (ESDM). The ESDM was developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and serve as a standard in the development of expert systems. It was agreed that the proposed ESDM must be evaluated before it could be adopted; therefore a study was planned for its evaluation. This detailed study is now underway. Before the study began, however, two ongoing projects were selected for a retrospective evaluation. They were the Ranging Equipment Diagnostic Expert System (REDEX) and the Backup Control Mode Analysis and Utility System (BCAUS). Both projects were approximately 1 year into development. Interviews of project personnel were conducted, and the resulting data was used to prepare the retrospective evaluation. Decision models of the two projects were constructed and used to evaluate the completeness and accuracy of key provisions of ESDM. A major conclusion reached from these case studies is that suitability and risk analysis should be required for all AI projects, large and small. Further, the objectives of each stage of development during a project should be selected to reduce the next largest area of risk or uncertainty on the project.

Gilstrap, Lewey↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Role of Space Medicine in Management of Risk in Spaceflight

The purpose of Space Medicine is to ensure mission success by providing quality and comprehensive health care throughout all mission phases to optimize crew health and performance and to prevent negative long-term health consequences. Space flight presents additional hazards and associated risks to crew health, performance, and safety. With an extended human presence in space it is expected that illness and injury will occur on orbit, which may present a significant threat to crew health and performance and to mission success. Maintaining crew health, safety and performance and preventing illness and injury are high priorities necessary for mission success and agency goals. Space flight health care should meet the standards of practice of evidence based clinical medicine. The function of Space Medicine is expected to meet the agency goals as stated in the 1998 NASA Strategic Plan and the priorities established by the Critical Path Roadmap Project. The Critical Path Roadmap Project is an integrated NASA cross-disciplinary strategy to assess, understand, mitigate, and manage the risks associated with long-term exposure to the space flight environment. The evidence based approach to space medicine should be standardized, objective process yielding expected results and establishing clinical practice standards while balancing individual risk with mission (programmatic) risk. The ability to methodically apply available knowledge and expertise to individual and mission health issues will ensure appropriate priorities are assigned and resources are allocated. NASA Space Medicine risk management process is a combined clinical and engineering approach. Competition for weight, power, volume, cost, and crew time must be balanced in making decisions about the care of individual crew with competing agency resources.

Clark, Jonathan B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Ergonomic Injury Risk in the Nuclear Material Processing Glovebox Environment [Capstone Project]

Gloveboxes are isolation barriers that are used within many different industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic parts fabrication, nuclear, and biological. The research on glovebox ergonomics is currently limited with few ergonomic professionals that focusing exclusively on glovebox working environments. There is existing documentation on occupational injuries, such as musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), sustained as a direct result of working in gloveboxes. The main elements that pose ergonomic risks to glovebox workers are operational repetition, duration, force, vibration, lifting heavy (more than 15lbs with two hands) objects, and awkward postures. This paper examines a small sample of the potential causal or risk factors that lead to the ergonomic injuries. A meta-analysis utilizing a random effect model is used to examine data from several studies which focus on, dexterity and strength changes as result of glove thickness, and robotic assistive technology as a means to improve postural mechanics. With the meta-analysis technique, similar data sets from different research studies can be coalesced into a single weighted, statistically significant result for subsequent consideration. The results from the analysis show that increased glove thickness results in decreased dexterity for operators thus increasing ergonomic risk factors such as task duration. It is also shown that glove thickness decreases grip strength but a similar decrease in pinch strength is not definitively demonstrated. With decreased grip strength, operators will need to exert more force (a known ergonomic risk factor) on processing tools, etc. during operations thus increasing the risk of ergonomic injury. The use of robotic assistive technology as a means to improve operator posture (risk factor) was also examined. Although it may be intuitively assumed that human-robotic collaboration would be beneficial in reducing risk factors, the result from this study’s analysis was not statistically significant. It is inferred that with additional directed research on this topic another study/analysis could be statistically significant demonstrating the benefits of the technology.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project

Since early 2005, NASA's Robotic Lunar Lander Development (RLLD) office at NASA MSFC, in partnership with the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), has developed mission concepts and preformed risk-reduction activities to address planetary science and exploration objectives uniquely met with landed missions. The RLLD team developed several concepts for lunar human-exploration precursor missions to demonstrate precision landing and in-situ resource utilization, a multi-node lunar geophysical network mission, either as a stand-alone mission, or as part of the International Lunar Network (ILN), a Lunar Polar Volatiles Explorer and a Mercury lander mission for the Planetary Science decadal survey, and an asteroid rendezvous and landing mission for the Exploration Precursor Robotics Mission (xPRM) office. The RLLD team has conducted an extensive number of risk-reduction activities in areas common to all lander concepts, including thruster testing, propulsion thermal control demonstration, composite deck design and fabrication, and landing leg stability and vibration. In parallel, the team has developed two robotic lander testbeds providing closed-loop, autonomous hover and descent activities for integration and testing of flight-like components and algorithms. A compressed-air test article had its first flight in September 2009 and completed over 150 successful flights. This small test article (107 kg dry/146 kg wet) uses a central throttleable thruster to offset gravity, plus 3 descent thrusters (~37lbf ea) and 6 attitude-control thrusters (~12lbf ea) to emulate the flight system with pulsed operation over approximately 10s of flight time. The test article uses carbon composite honeycomb decks, custom avionics (COTS components assembled in-house), and custom flight and ground software. A larger (206 kg dry/322 kg wet), hydrogen peroxide-propelled vehicle began flight tests in spring 2011 and fly over 30 successful flights to a maximum altitude of 30m. The monoprop testbed also uses a central gravity-canceling thruster and 3 descent thrusters, but has 12 attitude-control thrusters and a maximum flight time of over a minute. The testbed uses aluminum ortho-grid decks, an LN200-1 IMU, Roke Manor Radar Altimeter, Illunis optical cameras, Novatel Pro-Pak GPS truth data system, Pressure transducers & thermocouples for housekeeping, "In-Control" ground system software, and the core Flight Executive (cFE) modular software environment. The peroxide lander testbed is able to accept other sensors and algorithms for testing, both from within NASA and from other customers. Through these activities, the RLLD team has significantly reduced technical risks for all small and medium class robotic landers for the Moon and other airless planetary bodies.

Cohen, Barbara A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Options and Risk for Qualification of Electric Propulsion System

Electric propulsion vehicle systems envelop a wide range of propulsion alternatives including solar and nuclear, which present unique circumstances for qualification. This paper will address the alternatives for qualification of electric propulsion spacecraft systems. The approach taken will be to address the considerations for qualification at the various levels of systems definition. Additionally, for each level of qualification the system level risk implications will be developed. Also, the paper will explore the implications of analysis verses test for various levels of systems definition, while retaining the objectives of a verification program. The limitations of terrestrial testing will be explored along with the risk and implications of orbital demonstration testing. The paper will seek to develop a template for structuring of a verification program based on cost, risk and value return. A successful verification program should establish controls and define objectives of the verification compliance program. Finally the paper will seek to address the political and programmatic factors, which may impact options for system verification.

Bailey, Michelle↗

NASA NTRS2008

Close Approach Prediction Analysis of the Earth Science Constellation with the Fengyun-1C Debris

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. Each day, close approach predictions are generated by a U.S. Department of Defense Joint Space Operations Center Orbital Safety Analyst using the high accuracy Space Object Catalog maintained by the Air Force's 1" Space Control Squadron. Prediction results and other ancillary data such as state vector information are sent to NASAJGoddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Collision Risk Assessment analysis team for review. Collision analysis is performed and the GSFC team works with the ESC member missions to develop risk reduction strategies as necessary. This paper presents various close approach statistics for the ESC. The ESC missions have been affected by debris from the recent anti-satellite test which destroyed the Chinese Fengyun- 1 C satellite. The paper also presents the percentage of close approach events induced by the Fengyun-1C debris, and presents analysis results which predict the future effects on the ESC caused by this event. Specifically, the Fengyun-1C debris is propagated for twenty years using high-performance computing technology and close approach predictions are generated for the ESC. The percent increase in the total number of conjunction events is considered to be an estimate of the collision risk due to the Fengyun-1C break- UP.

Duncan, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS2004

NRA8-21 Cycle 2 RBCC Turbopump Risk Reduction

This project was composed of three sub-tasks. The objective of the first task was to use the CFD code INS3D to generate both on- and off-design predictions for the consortium optimized impeller flowfield. The results of the flow simulations are given in the first section. The objective of the second task was to construct a turbomachinery testing database comprised of measurements made on several different impellers, an inducer and a diffuser. The data was in the form of static pressure measurements as well as laser velocimeter measurements of velocities and flow angles within the stated components. Several databases with this information were created for these components. The third subtask objective was two-fold: first, to validate the Enigma CFD code for pump diffuser analysis, and secondly, to perform steady and unsteady analyses on some wide flow range diffuser concepts using Enigma. The code was validated using the consortium optimized impeller database and then applied to two different concepts for wide flow diffusers.

Ferguson, Thomas V.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Determination of the Risk of Radiation-Associated Circulatory and Cancer Disease Mortality in a NASA Early Astronaut Cohort

Of the many possible health challenges posed during extended exploratory missions to space, the effects of space radiation on cardiovascular disease and cancer are of particular concern. There are unique challenges to estimating those radiation risks; care and appropriate and rigorous methodology should be applied when considering small cohorts such as the NASA astronaut population. The objective of this work was to determine if there was sufficient evidence for excess risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer in early NASA astronaut cohorts. NASA astronauts in selection groups 1-7 were chosen; this relatively homogeneous cohort consists of 73 white males, who unlike today's astronauts, maintained similar smoking and drinking habits to the general US population, and have published radiation doses. The participants flew in space on missions Mercury through Shuttle and received space radiation doses between 0-74.1 milligrays. Cause of death information was obtained from the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) program at NASA Johnson Space Center. Mortality was compared with the US male population. Trends of mortality with dose were assessed using a logistic model, fitted by maximum likelihood. Only 32 (43.84 percent) of the 73 early astronauts have died. Standard mortality ratios (SMRs) for cancer (n=7, SMR=43.4, 95 percent CI 17.8, 84.9), all circulatory disease (n=7, SMR=33.2, 95 percent CI 13.7, 65.0), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) (n=5, SMR=40.1, 95 percent CI 13.2, 89.4) were significantly lower than for the US white male population. For cerebrovascular disease, the upper confidence interval for SMR included 100, indicating it was not significantly different from the US population (n=2, SMR = 77.0, 95 percent CI 9.4, 268.2). The power of the study is low and remains below 10 percent even when risks 10 times those reported in the literature are assumed. Due to small sample size, there is currently insufficient statistical power to evaluate space radiation exposure effects on mortality in NASA astronauts. In addition to a comprehensive longitudinal study of NASA astronauts, a research strategy of low dose epidemiology data integration with cell and animal studies should be utilized for space radiation risk assessment in the astronauts.

Elgart, S. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proposed Risk-Informed Regulatory Framework for Approval of Microreactor Transportation Packages

Microreactors are very small nuclear reactors with a power output of about 20 megawatts electric or less that are designed to be factory-built, modular in nature, and highly portable. These compact reactors will be small enough to be transported by truck or even air and could help solve energy challenges in a number of areas, ranging from remote commercial or residential locations to military bases. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is tasked to develop and evaluate transportation licensing options for microreactors. The work is funded by the National Reactor Innovation Center a National Department of Energy program led by Idaho National Laboratory for the Office of Nuclear Energy Research and Development which support demonstration of microreactor technology. Key transportation steps include the (1) initial movement of high-assay low enriched uranium fresh fuel, (2) transportation of an intact, but never-operated microreactor, and (3) transportation of an intact, previously-operated microreactor. The deliverables on the project consists of a documentation of applicable regulations and regulatory authority for transportation. The objective of this report is to propose a risk-informed regulatory framework for the licensing of the transportation of microreactors, including the transportation of irradiated nuclear fuel that is assumed to be an integral component of the microreactor transportation package. The framework lays out a viable regulatory pathway, including decision points for regulatory options and the supporting technical evaluations for those options in phases from near to long term. This report includes discussion of the (1) general microreactor design concepts including representative microreactor source terms, (2) options for regulatory approval of microreactor transportation based on current regulation and historical precedence, (3) regulatory basis for including risk information in microreactor transportation licensing activities, and (4) description of a risk-informed regulatory framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proposed Risk-Informed Regulatory Framework for Approval of Microreactor Transportation Packages

Microreactors are very small nuclear reactors with a power output of about 20 megawatts electric or less that are designed to be factory-built, modular in nature, and highly portable. These compact reactors will be small enough to be transported by truck or even air and could help solve energy challenges in a number of areas, ranging from remote commercial or residential locations to military bases. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is tasked to develop and evaluate transportation licensing options for microreactors. The work is funded by the National Reactor Innovation Center a National Department of Energy program led by Idaho National Laboratory for the Office of Nuclear Energy Research and Development which support demonstration of microreactor technology. Key transportation steps include the (1) initial movement of high-assay low enriched uranium fresh fuel, (2) transportation of an intact, but never-operated microreactor, and (3) transportation of an intact, previously-operated microreactor. The deliverables on the project consists of a documentation of applicable regulations and regulatory authority for transportation. The objective of this report is to propose a risk-informed regulatory framework for the licensing of the transportation of microreactors, including the transportation of irradiated nuclear fuel that is assumed to be an integral component of the microreactor transportation package. The framework lays out a viable regulatory pathway, including decision points for regulatory options and the supporting technical evaluations for those options in phases from near to long term. This report includes discussion of the (1) general microreactor design concepts including representative microreactor source terms, (2) options for regulatory approval of microreactor transportation based on current regulation and historical precedence, (3) regulatory basis for including risk information in microreactor transportation licensing activities, and (4) description of a risk-informed regulatory framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2026

xEMU Spacesuit Boot Lunar South Pole Thermal Vacuum Testing

The Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) spacesuit lunar boot was evaluated in the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) CITADEL thermal vacuum chamber at lunar South Pole conditions. The JPL CITADEL chamber provides a radiation environment and contact plate temperature of 48K, simulating the temperature of a lunar Permanently Shadowed Region (PSR) at the South Pole of the Moon. The main objectives of the test series were: to evaluate the risk lunar PSRs pose to advanced spacesuit boots, validate the xEMU lunar boot thermal model, and develop a test methodology to evaluate lunar spacesuit boots. To simulate the thermal effects of a crewmember’s foot inside the boot, a thermal manikin foot was developed to inject heat into the spacesuit boot. Thermal data was collected through a variety of sensors including thermocouples, thermistors, heat flux sensors, and infrared cameras. A test matrix was developed to investigate the variables of foot contact force, simulated skin temperature, external contact plate temperature, and ventilation flowrate. The JPL CITADEL chamber includes a loadlock (airlock) that afforded the ability to simulate the transition of the boot from a thermally neutral IVA condition to a cold EVA condition within seconds. This paper will document the test design, test objectives, success criteria, test support equipment, spacesuit boot to chamber interfaces, and configuration of the test article. Additionally, this paper will document the high-level results of the testing. More detailed test results will be presented in a different paper.

TVAC↗

NASA NTRS2026

xEMU Spacesuit Boot Lunar South Pole Thermal Vacuum Testing

The Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) spacesuit lunar boot was evaluated in the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) CITADEL thermal vacuum chamber at lunar South Pole conditions. The JPL CITADEL chamber provides a radiation environment and contact plate temperature of 48K, simulating the temperature of a lunar Permanently Shadowed Region (PSR) at the South Pole of the Moon. The main objectives of the test series are: to evaluate the risk lunar PSRs pose to advanced spacesuit boots, validate the xEMU lunar boot thermal model, and to develop a test methodology to evaluate lunar spacesuit boots. To simulate the thermal effects of a crewmember’s foot inside the boot, a thermal manikin foot was developed to inject heat into the spacesuit boot. Thermal data was collected through a variety of sensors including thermocouples, thermistors, heat flux sensors, and infrared cameras. A test matrix was developed to investigate the variables of foot contact force, simulated skin temperature, external contact plate temperature, and ventilation flowrate. The JPL CITADEL chamber includes a loadlock (airlock) that afforded the ability to simulate the transition of the boot from a thermally neutral IVA condition to a cold EVA condition within seconds. This paper will document the test design, test objectives, success criteria, test support equipment, spacesuit boot to chamber interfaces, and configuration of the test article. Additionally, this paper will document the high-level results of the testing. More detailed test results will be presented in a different paper.

Ben Swartout↗

NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of The Interaction of Space Tethers with Catalogued Space Objects

The potential for collisions or close passes with other space objects presents a significant issue for many space tether applications, representing a potential risk both to the integrity of the tether system and t o the safety of other spacecraft. Potential collisions between tethers and other space objects may be possible to avoid if close encounters can be predicted with sufficient precision and advance notice. In order to provide a method for predicting the frequency with which a tether must be maneuvered to avoid collisions, and to provide a resource for accurate close-encounter prediction during tether flight experiments, we have developed a software tool that compares the trajectory of a tether object with that of all of the objects in the NORAD space catalogue. In this paper we describe the models and algorithms used in this tool, and discuss results of test cases conducted to predict the close-encounter frequency of a tether systems ranging from a short nanosatellite-based tether experiment to a hundred-kilometer long MXER tether system.

Bonometti, Joseph↗