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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

RectifHydPlus: Forty Year Hydropower Generation Reanalysis for Conterminous United States, Version 1.1.

This dataset contains monthly hydropower net-generation totals for 590 plants (each >10 MW) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1980 to 2019. RectifHydPlus v1.1 includes one harmonized table of historical monthly generation—backfilled with observed monthly values where available—and two companion tables: (i) an estimates-only version with no backfill and (ii) a hydrological-control version that removes the effects of capacity and operational change. Each table comprises 23,600 records (590 plants × 40 years). The dataset was developed to address temporal gaps and inconsistencies in publicly available hydropower generation data as available through EIA-923 survey reports. Each record includes a quality label denoting the underlying proxy—from best (direct reservoir releases) to weakest (pattern copied from similar years). By combining the agency-reported survey records with observed and simulated hydrologic releases, RectifHydPlus offers complete, quality-labeled monthly estimates suitable for trend analysis and generation of hydropower generation inputs for energy-water modeling.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pressure-tailored lithium deposition and dissolution in lithium metal batteries

Unregulated lithium (Li) growth is the major cause of low Coulombic efficiency, short cycle life and safety hazards for rechargeable Li metal batteries. Strategies that aim to achieve large granular Li deposits have been extensively explored, and yet it remains a challenge to achieve the ideal Li deposits, which consist of large Li particles that are seamlessly packed on the electrode and can be reversibly deposited and stripped. In this work, we report a dense Li deposition (99.49% electrode density) with an ideal columnar structure that is achieved by controlling the uniaxial stack pressure during battery operation. Using multiscale characterization and simulation, we elucidate the critical role of stack pressure on Li nucleation, growth and dissolution processes and propose a Li-reservoir-testing protocol to maintain the ideal Li morphology during extended cycling. The precise manipulation of Li deposition and dissolution is a critical step to enable fast charging and a low-temperature operation for Li metal batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Heat Extraction Performance of Closed-Loop Geothermal Systems with Thermally Conductive Enhancements in Conduction-Only Reservoirs: Preprint

We investigated the impact of disc-shaped and linear thermal enhancements on performance of closed-loop geothermal systems using steady-state and transient COMSOL numerical simulations. Thermal enhancements refer to thermally conductive material introduced in the rocks surrounding a wellbore to compensate for the relatively low rock thermal conductivity and increase heat extraction. Materials proposed include composite cements with thermally conductive additives such as metals or graphite to obtain overall cement thermal conductivities of 10 to 100x the rock thermal conductivity. Our simulation approach was modeling a subsegment (e.g., 100 m long) of a wellbore with idealized (e.g., perfect disc-shaped) thermal enhancements, and we report results as relative increase in heat extraction with respect to systems without thermal enhancements. We did not evaluate technical feasibility or cost of installing thermal enhancements. Simulations indicate that for 5-mm thick disc-shaped thermal enhancements with 5-m radius, repeated every 1 m along the wellbore and with thermal conductivity of 100x the rock thermal conductivity, the thermal output increases roughly 20% with respect to a closed-loop system without thermal enhancements. For fishbone structure thermal enhancements, we estimate a roughly 7% increase in thermal output for 5-m long radially outward pipes with half the radius of the main wellbore, repeated every 2.5 m, with thermal conductivity of 100x the rock thermal conductivity.

advanced geothermal systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Innovations in underground hydrogen storage with multiphysics simulations, optimization, and monitoring: A review

Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) is a promising solution for large-scale energy storage and a critical component in advancing low-carbon energy system. Ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS necessitates a comprehensive understanding of multiphysical interactions driven by cyclic pore fluid pressure fluctuations and coupled physicochemical processes. Here, this review examines the key geomechanical responses in UHS, including rock property variations under cyclic loading, fracture evolution and propagation, reservoir stress sensitivity, and fault stability. It also explores the impact of geochemical and microbial reactions on geomechanical characteristics. We provide an in-depth analysis of Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) coupled numerical simulations, highlighting their potential for future multi-scale modeling. Limitations of current machine learning (ML) approaches in addressing UHS challenges are highlighted, emphasizing the need for innovative ML-based methodologies. Operational strategies for hydrogen injection and production are reviewed, focusing on safety, efficiency, and economic viability. The necessity for multi-objective optimization (MOO) to balance storage efficiency, risk mitigation, and cost-effectiveness is also discussed. Current monitoring technologies are evaluated to ensure safe and efficient UHS operations. Finally, this review identifies critical knowledge gaps and underscores the importance of advancing geomechanical understanding under multiphysics-coupling. We highlight the need for ML-driven multiphysics theories, enhanced modeling techniques, and robust optimization strategies to improve UHS performance. This study serves as a comprehensive reference for future research and the large-scale implementation of UHS systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Thermodynamics of Nonequilibrium Processes in Lattice Gauge Theories

A key objective in nuclear and high-energy physics is to describe nonequilibrium dynamics of matter, e.g., in the early Universe and in particle colliders, starting from the standard model of particle physics. Classical computing methods, via the framework of lattice gauge theory, have experienced limited success in this mission. Quantum simulation of lattice gauge theories holds promise for overcoming computational limitations. Because of local constraints (Gauss’s laws), lattice gauge theories have an intricate Hilbert-space structure. This structure complicates the definition of thermodynamic properties of systems coupled to reservoirs during equilibrium and nonequilibrium processes. We show how to define thermodynamic quantities such as work and heat using strong-coupling thermodynamics, a framework that has recently burgeoned within the field of quantum thermodynamics. Our definitions suit instantaneous quenches, simple nonequilibrium processes undertaken in quantum simulators. To illustrate our framework, we compute the work and heat exchanged during a quench in a Z 2 lattice gauge theory coupled to matter in 1+1 dimensions. Here, the thermodynamic quantities, as functions of the quench parameter, evidence a phase transition. For general thermal states, we derive a simple relation between a quantum many-body system’s entanglement Hamiltonian, measurable with quantum-information-processing tools, and the Hamiltonian of mean force, used to define strong-coupling thermodynamic quantities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A new coupled multiphase flow–finite strain deformation–fault slip framework for induced seismicity

Production of hydrocarbons and water from subsurface reservoirs are known to cause permanent deformation of the reservoir and seismicity along faults both of which are detrimental to sustainable development of natural resources. Most of the prior studies on understanding fluid flow-induced plasticity and seismicity have focused on one or the other phenomenon due to the numerical difficulty associated with simultaneous modeling of the two failure phenomena because stress and deformation evolve non-linearly in both plasticity and seismicity. However, in reservoirs undergoing long-term production, plastic failure can alter the stress paths of points on a fault such that the onset, location, and magnitude of actual seismic events can no longer be predicted by a poroelastic simulation due to inaccurate stress and deformation history. We present a computational framework for coupled multiphase flow, finite strain poroplastic deformation, and dynamic fault slip and use it to understand the impact of plastic deformation on the onset, location, and magnitude of induced fault slip events. We evaluate the impact of plasticity on reservoir pressure, deformation, induced stress, and fault slip by comparing infinitesimal strain elastic and finite strain poro-elastoplastic models. For real-world applications, we consider different scenarios where the reservoir is either mechanically weaker or stronger than the caprock. We analyze the stress evolution as a function of the change in reservoir pressure to understand the role of contrast in reservoir and caprock elastic moduli on geomechanical stability. The results show that the poroplastic reservoir exhibits larger vertical deformation and delayed slip than the poroelastic reservoir after the same amount of oil production. For the same amount of pressure drop, a reservoir with a smaller modulus than the caprock displays a larger vertical displacement and an earlier onset of both plastic failure and fault slip. For a reservoir with a larger modulus than the caprock, vertical displacement is larger on the reservoir top boundary and smaller on the ground surface, and a higher pressure drop is needed to induce plastic failure and fault slip.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-trained machine learning models for Lorentz transmission electron microscopy

Understanding the collective behavior of complex spin textures, such as lattices of magnetic skyrmions, is of fundamental importance for exploring and controlling the emergent ordering of these spin textures and inducing phase transitions. It is also critical to understand the skyrmion–skyrmion interactions for applications such as magnetic skyrmion-enabled reservoir or neuromorphic computing. Magnetic skyrmion lattices can be studied using in situ Lorentz transmission electron microscopy (LTEM), but quantitative and statistically robust analysis of the skyrmion lattices from LTEM images can be difficult. In this work, we show that a convolutional neural network, trained on simulated data, can be applied to perform segmentation of spin textures and to extract quantitative data, such as spin texture size and location, from experimental LTEM images, which cannot be obtained manually. This includes quantitative information about skyrmion size, position, and shape, which can, in turn, be used to calculate skyrmion–skyrmion interactions and lattice ordering. We apply this approach to segmenting images of Néel skyrmion lattices so that we can accurately identify skyrmion size and deformation in both dense and sparse lattices. The model is trained using a large set of micromagnetic simulations as well as simulated LTEM images. This entirely open-source training pipeline can be applied to a wide variety of magnetic features and materials, enabling large-scale statistical studies of spin textures using LTEM.

McCray, Arthur R. C. (ORCID:0000000160774698)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linear and Nonlinear Solvers for Simulating Multiphase Flow within Large-Scale Engineered Subsurface Systems

Simulation of multiphase flow in the subsurface is well-known to be computationally challenging. While there have been many studies that have explored approaches to overcoming these challenges, they often utilize relatively simple case studies. In this paper, we focus on the unique numerical challenges posed by modeling large-scale engineered subsurface systems, characterized by discrete features embedded in a heterogeneous natural subsurface setting. The man-made features such as shafts, tunnels, and barriers often cause multiple challenges in modeling the domain for multiphase porous media flow. This flow scenario can have a wide range of applications such as nuclear waste repositories, enhanced recovery of a petroleum reservoir, geothermal engineering, and carbon sequestration. An example of these severe numerical challenges is the case of performance assessment (PA) for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the only operating deep geological repository in the US, which simulates extreme material properties of bedded salt rock formation and extreme contrast due to open excavation next to the formation. The models have extremes not only of permeability and porosity but also of the constitutive models needed for multiphase flow; additionally, they have process models like salt creep closure reducing porosity over time, fracturing in clay and anhydrite interbeds of the bedded salt, gas generation from the waste materials, and unintentional human borehole intrusions in some scenarios. Numerical simulations require the solution of coupled systems of nonlinear PDEs; in our work, we use the open-source simulator PFLOTRAN which is based on Finite Volume discretization. The solution of the nonlinear equations requires use of the Newton-Raphson iteration at each time step, which entails the solution of the linearized Jacobian system at each iteration. The effects of all the processes (i.e., large number of unknowns, highly nonlinear constitutive relations, large contrasts in material properties in short distances) lead to an ill-conditioned Jacobian matrix that severely challenges traditional linear solver, i.e., stabilized biconjugate gradient with block Jacobi incomplete LU preconditioner (BCGS-ILU) leading to non-convergence for traditional Newton-Raphson nonlinear solver causing unacceptably long computation time for each model. This paper presents linear solvers such as constrained pressure residual (CPR) two-stage preconditioner with alternate-block-factorization (ABF) and quasi- implicit pressure and explicit saturation (QIMPES) decouplers and flexible generalized residual solver (FGMRES). The new general-purpose nonlinear solver, Newton trust-region dogleg Cauchy (NTRDC), is also introduced to resolve extreme nonlinearities in the models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of each method relative to the default BCGS-Newton solver. The two best cases had nearly 50 times speed-up and achieved completion of a simulation in 14 hours that never completed due to non-convergence with the default solver. We also investigate the strong scalability of each method and discuss some of the deficiencies found for Block Jacobi preconditioner using parallel domain decomposition, and node packing effects of modern processor architecture.

Preconditioner, Nonlinear, Porous media, Multiphas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating Fracture Sealing by Granular LCM Particles in Geothermal Drilling

Lost circulation occurs when the returned fluid is less than what is pumped into the well due to loss of fluid to pores or fractures. A lost-circulation event is a common occurrence in a geothermal well. Typical geothermal reservoirs are often under-pressured and have larger fracture apertures. A severe lost-circulation event is costly and may lead to stuck pipe, well instability, and well abandonment. One typical treatment is adding lost-circulation materials (LCMs) to seal fractures. Conventional LCMs fail to properly seal fractures because their mechanical limit is exceeded at elevated temperatures. In this paper, parametric studies in numerical simulations are conducted to better understand different thermal effects on the sealing mechanisms of LCMs. The computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) and the discrete element method (DEM) are coupled to accurately capture the true physics of sealing by granular materials. Due to computational limits, the traditional Eulerian–Eulerian approach treats solid particles as a group of continuum matter. With the advance of modern computational power, particle bridging is achievable with DEM to track individual particles by modeling their interactive forces between each other. Particle–fluid interactions can be modeled by coupling CFD algorithms. Fracture sealing capability is investigated by studying the effect of four individual properties including fluid viscosity, particle size, friction coefficient, and Young’s modulus. It is found that thermally degraded properties lead to inefficient fracture sealing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computing with a Chemical Reservoir

Contemporary computation is expensive, with large language models and artificial intelligence becoming more common in daily life. However, high-performance computing is reaching the limits in speed and energy expenditure, and domain science requires ever-increasing computational capacity, with simulations and data analysis pipelines ever-growing in complexity. As we progress towards post-exascale computation, with the associated high energy costs, new methods of energy-conscious computation are required. Novel analog and hybrid digital-analog systems can overcome these challenges, and chemical reactions offer a promising avenue. Computers based on chemistry can provide compact desktop devices with immense computational power. These devices are readily scalable by considering greater reaction systems or vessels, meeting the high-performance requirements for scientific workflows. In this article, we present ChemComp, a compilation pipeline for the conversion of ordinary differential equations into implementable chemical reactions. We then demonstrate the solving capabilities of ChemComp by emulating a potential chemical reservoir device. We leverage the multi-layer intermediate representation (MLIR) compiler framework to implement an expressive chemical reaction abstraction and propose a path for chemical reaction networks (CRNs) to represent mathematical problems effectively. Combined, we demonstrate a potential workflow that can harness chemistry’s computing power to create energy-efficient, high-performance computation systems for contemporary computing needs.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implications of rootless geothermal models: Missing processes, parameter compensation, and imposter convection

Numerical models of geothermal systems commonly capture only the top of a reservoir. Deeper areas of the reservoir are simplified to a boundary at the base of the model domain. Commonly, the basal boundary is given either a heat source or a source of mass and enthalpy. Here we developed and present simple numerical experiments which demonstrate that these approaches do not produce the correct model behavior in comparison to a model that captures the entire convecting domain with a heat flux only. We describe a variety of incorrect types of model behavior that arise directly from the choice of boundary condition, independent of the specific parameterization of the model. Heat sources are sensitive to the thickness of the domain and parameters take unphysical values to compensate for the reduced height. The combined mass/heat boundary can produce temperatures that show similarities to circulating geothermal systems, but with incorrect fluid flow and a strong boundary layer focused at the base of the simulated clay cap. These errors likely cause parameters to adjust their values to compensate for the incorrect physics. We highlight these issues and show an example from a developed reservoir model. Initial calibrations to natural state temperature were unsuitable for history matching. The 3D model required parameter adjustments to achieve a more realistic production model. Appropriate mitigation measures should be considered to reduce parameter compensation and improve decision-support models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A machine-learning inverse model framework for rapid forecasting and history matching in unconventional reservoirs

Model-based optimization for real-time forecasting in unconventional reser-voirs requires novel methods and work?ows since the strategies and work?ows used in conventional reservoirs are either inapplicable, or prohibitively expen-sive and time-consuming. Insu?cient site data and computational expense of high-?delity simulations mean that work?ows with high-?delity simulations are not ideal for usage in comprehensive uncertainty quanti?cation stud-ies that require 1000s of forward model runs. We present an alternative, novel work?ow for unconventional reservoirs, based on the interplay between reduced-order models and machine-learning. Our physics-informed machine-learning (PIML) work?ow addresses the challenges to real-time reservoir management in uncoventionals, namely lack of data (the time-frame for which the wells have been producing), and computational expense of high-?delity modeling. We use the machine-learning paradigm of transfer-learning to bind together fast but less accurate reduced-order models with slow, but accurate high-?delity models and circumvent the di?culties inherent in the current state-of-the-art for unconventionals. Such a PIML work?ow, grounded in physics, is a viable candidate for real-time history matching and production forecasting in a fractured shale gas reservoir. The signi?cance of our approach is that while it is developed for a particu-lar well and site in the Marcelus Shale gas reservoir of the Appalachian basin (MSEEL), it is not wedded to it. We expect the same work?ow can be ap-plied to other shale formations (e.g., Woodford, Barnett, Utica, EagleFord) should site-data become available, using the same set of machine-learning techniques from transfer learning. Some ?ne-tuning (or minimal retraining of the neural networks) will be required to transfer knowledge across shale gas sites/formations but it is a clearly superior alternative to developing a new machine-learning model altogether when considering a di?erent site.

Srinivasan, Shriram↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$μ$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$α$ galaxies

Across the peak of cosmic star formation at $z\sim1-2$, inflow, processing, and feedback drive rapid changes in the spatial distribution and chemical composition of baryons in galaxies and surrounding reservoirs; this baryon cycle can be tomographically mapped by line intensity mapping (LIM) of atomic hydrogen, ionized carbon, and carbon monoxide. We present a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting auto- and cross-power spectra between spectroscopic surveys of four such tracers at $z\sim0.5-1.7$ mapping the same deep field - TIM, EoRSpec/FYST, MeerKAT, & Euclid. We forward-model 3-D distributions for these tracers from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, directly capturing the two-halo, one-halo, and shot statistics without relying on analytical decompositions. We further detail a signal-to-noise formalism, tailored to LIM surveys with highly anisotropic geometries and Fourier-space coverage. We demonstrate that galaxy cross-correlations will be the dominant discovery channel for current-generation surveys. These instruments will detect the auto-spectra for CO and HI 21 cm and the CO $\times$ 21 cm cross-spectrum at modest S/N $\sim 1-10$, while placing upper limits on the [CII]-158$μ$m signals. [CII], CO, and HI LIM will be $\sim3-30\times$ ($0.5-1.5$ dex) more sensitive to cross-correlation with the Euclid survey, however, than their respective auto-correlations, constraining all three models of line emission at high significance (S/N $\sim 10-40$) within this decade. Finally, we formulate a staged instrumental trajectory with planned or reasonable improvements, including the as-proposed SKA-Mid. We forecast advancing the per-$k$-mode sensitivities of each auto-, galaxy-line, and line-line spectrum by several orders of magnitude, enabling new percent- and sub-percent level constraints on cosmology and the redshift evolution of star formation and the baryon cycle.

Agrawal, Shubh [Pennsylvania U., Dept. Math.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

wmpy-power: A Python package for process-based regional hydropower simulation

Hydropower is an important source of renewable energy in many parts of the world. The generation potential for a hydropower facility can vary greatly due to fluctuations in precipitation and snowmelt patterns impacting streamflow and reservoir storage. Human activities such as irrigation, manufacturing, and hydration can also influence water availability at nearby and downstream facilities. wmpy-power--the hydropower model described in this work--is process-based, leveraging explicit reservoir storage and release data to address impacts on hydropower from climate change and human adaptive behaviors to inform long-term planning and resource-adequacy considerations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗