Comparison and Regression Analysis of Measured and Modeled Sonic Booms Across a Lateral Array
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sonic boom↗
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Results for “regression models”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Using ridge regression in systematic pointing error corrections
A pointing error model is used in the antenna calibration process. Data from spacecraft or radio star observations are used to determine the parameters in the model. However, the regression variables are not truly independent, displaying a condition known as multicollinearity. Ridge regression, a biased estimation technique, is used to combat the multicollinearity problem. Two data sets pertaining to Voyager 1 spacecraft tracking (days 105 and 106 of 1987) were analyzed using both linear least squares and ridge regression methods. The advantages and limitations of employing the technique are presented. The problem is not yet fully resolved.
Guiar, C. N.↗
Determination of airplane model structure from flight data using splines and stepwise regression
A procedure for the determination of airplane model structure from flight data is presented. The model is based on a polynomial spline representation of the aerodynamic coefficients, and the procedure is implemented by use of a stepwise regression. First, a form of the aerodynamic force and moment coefficients amenable to the utilization of splines is developed. Next, expressions for the splines in one and two variables are introduced. Then the steps in the determination of an aerodynamic model structure and the estimation of parameters are discussed briefly. The focus is on the application to flight data of the techniques developed.
Klein, V.↗
SCI model structure determination program (OSR) user's guide
The computer program, OSR (Optimal Subset Regression) which estimates models for rotorcraft body and rotor force and moment coefficients is described. The technique used is based on the subset regression algorithm. Given time histories of aerodynamic coefficients, aerodynamic variables, and control inputs, the program computes correlation between various time histories. The model structure determination is based on these correlations. Inputs and outputs of the program are given.
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Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach
The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.
Ozone variables↗
Improvement of observer/Kalman filter identification (OKID) by residual whitening
This paper presents a time-domain method to identify a state space model of a linear system and its corresponding observer/Kalman filter from a given set of general input-output data. The identified filter has the properties that its residual is minimized in the least squares sense, orthogonal to the time-shifted versions of itself, and to the given input-output data sequence. The connection between the state space model and a particular auto-regressive moving average description of a linear system is made in terms of the Kalman filter and a deadbeat gain matrix. The procedure first identifies the Markov parameters of an observer system, from which a state space model of the system and the filter gain are computed. The developed procedure is shown to improve results obtained by an existing observer/Kalman filter identification method, which is based on an auto-regressive model without the moving average terms. Numerical and experimental results are presented to illustrate the proposed method.
Phan, Minh↗
Quantifying radiation quality for space relevant radiation types: Fitting excess risk models to outbred mice data
Accurately quantifying the differences in radiation quality between space and terrestrial environments is important for predicting health risks for astronauts.Recently, Edmundson et al. 2020[1] provided valuable new results from out-bred mice linking tumor induction and genetic background a er exposure to low and high-LET radiation. The goal of the current study is to more rigorously estimate a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor by leveraging the solid tumor data from Edmundson et al. 2020. Excess relative risk (ERR) models and excess absolute risk (EAR) models were fit using Poisson regression similar to the models that the Radiation Effects Research Foundation uses to fit atomic bomb survivor data. Linear ERR and EAR slopes were simulated usingBayesian analyses, and RBE values were calculated from the ratio of the heavy ion linear slope to the gamma linear slope using the full posterior distribution.
Lori J. Chappell↗
Model Development for MODIS Thermal Band Electronic Crosstalk
MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has 36 bands. Among them, 16 thermal emissive bands covering a wavelength range from 3.8 to 14.4 m. After 16 years on-orbit operation, the electronic crosstalk of a few Terra MODIS thermal emissive bands developed substantial issues that cause biases in the EV brightness temperature measurements and surface feature contamination. The crosstalk effects on band 27 with center wavelength at 6.7 m and band 29 at 8.5 m increased significantly in recent years, affecting downstream products such as water vapor and cloud mask. The crosstalk effect is evident in the near-monthly scheduled lunar measurements, from which the crosstalk coefficients can be derived. The development of an alternative approach is very helpful for independent verification.In this work, a physical model was developed to assess the crosstalk impact on calibration as well as in Earth view brightness temperature retrieval. This model was applied to Terra MODIS band 29 empirically to correct the Earth brightness temperature measurements. In the model development, the detectors nonlinear response is considered. The impact of the electronic crosstalk is assessed in two steps. The first step consists of determining the impact on calibration using the on-board blackbody (BB). Due to the detectors nonlinear response and large background signal, both linear and nonlinear coefficients are affected by the crosstalk from sending bands. The second step is to calculate the effects on the Earth view brightness temperature retrieval. The effects include those from affected calibration coefficients and the contamination of Earth view measurements. This model links the measurement bias with crosstalk coefficients, detector non-linearity, and the ratio of Earth measurements between the sending and receiving bands. The correction of the electronic cross talk can be implemented empirically from the processed bias at different brightness temperature. The implementation can be done through two approaches. As routine calibration assessment for thermal infrared bands, the trending over select Earth scenes is processed for all the detectors in a band and the band averaged bias is derived at a certain time. In this case, the correction of an affected band can be made using the regression of the model with band averaged bias and then corrections of detector differences are applied. The second approach requires the trending for individual detectors and the bias for each detector is used for regression with the model. A test using the first approach was made for Terra MODIS band 29 with the biases derived from long-term trending of brightness temperature over ocean and Dome-C.
Chang, Tiejun↗
Spatial structure, sampling design and scale in remotely-sensed imagery of a California savanna woodland
This article describes research related to sampling techniques for establishing linear relations between land surface parameters and remotely-sensed data. Predictive relations are estimated between percentage tree cover in a savanna environment and a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Thematic Mapper sensor. Spatial autocorrelation in original measurements and regression residuals is examined using semi-variogram analysis at several spatial resolutions. Sampling schemes are then tested to examine the effects of autocorrelation on predictive linear models in cases of small sample sizes. Regression models between image and ground data are affected by the spatial resolution of analysis. Reducing the influence of spatial autocorrelation by enforcing minimum distances between samples may also improve empirical models which relate ground parameters to satellite data.
Mcgwire, K.↗
Component Level Regression Testing in a Hierarchical Architecture
The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) is an Earth system model consisting of a large suite of individual model components that can be coupled in a flexible manner to investigate a variety of Earth science issues. Specific GEOS model configurations are composed as a hierarchical collection of components based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). Regression testing of GEOS is currently limited to (1) full system tests that are poor at isolating specific defects and (2) a suite of unit tests which have very limited coverage. As part of our approach to improve upon the current testing situation, we have prototyped the capability to perform regression tests on individual GEOS components by leveraging and extending existing checkpoint/restart capabilities. In our implementation, each ESMF component has 3 states: Import (what it needs to run), Export (which it needs to provide to other components), and Internal (the component state proper). By capturing, Import, Export and Internal states for a given component during a ull run of GEOS, a generic driver can then rerun the component offline and compare expected exports with those that have been saved. The hierarchical structure of GEOS introduces an interesting wrinkle when trying to test components that in turn drive interacting child components. To fully isolate a parent component, we use the approach of software mocks, in which the exports of children are also saved during the initial capture run of GEOS. Then when testing the parent component, the children components are replaced by a generic mock component that produces exports from the previously saved data and ensures that that all interdependencies among children components are satisfied.
Thomas Clune↗
Determination of airplane model structure from flight data by using modified stepwise regression
The linear and stepwise regressions are briefly introduced, then the problem of determining airplane model structure is addressed. The MSR was constructed to force a linear model for the aerodynamic coefficient first, then add significant nonlinear terms and delete nonsignificant terms from the model. In addition to the statistical criteria in the stepwise regression, the prediction sum of squares (PRESS) criterion and the analysis of residuals were examined for the selection of an adequate model. The procedure is used in examples with simulated and real flight data. It is shown that the MSR performs better than the ordinary stepwise regression and that the technique can also be applied to the large amplitude maneuvers.
Klein, V.↗
A New CO2 Transmittance Parameterization and Its Impact on the GLA GCM
The Wu-Kaplan radiation parameterization (Krishnamurthy, 1982) used in the GLA Global Circulation Model (GCM) was improved by replacing its fixed tables of CO2 transmittance in the 15 micron band with models developed by regression on line-by-line transmittances. The transmittances between layers are modeled as products of effective sublayer transmittances. The GLA GCM was integrated for 20 days starting at OZ, January 21, 1979, using the transmittance model. In the control run the fixed table of 15 micron CO2 transmittances is used. The effect of the change of initial cooling rate is illustrated by a map of the difference of 50 mb temperature after 6 hours. The cooling is reduced over high topography, where the fixed table underestimates the transmittance, and is reduced slightly throughout the tropics and the north polar area where the stratosphere is relatively cold. Over elevated topography the surface cooling increases, also as expected. The stratospheric temperature increases over a degree in the arctic and smaller amounts over Antarctica and elsewhere. Tropospheric equilibrium temperature response is obscured by time dependent differences in synoptic disturbances.
Wobus, R.↗
Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models
Previous studies have shown that probabilistic forecasting may be a useful method for predicting persistent contrail formation. A probabilistic forecast to accurately predict contrail formation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) is created by using meteorological data based on hourly meteorological analyses from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as well as GOES water vapor channel measurements, combined with surface and satellite observations of contrails. Two groups of logistic models were created. The first group of models (SURFACE models) is based on surface-based contrail observations supplemented with satellite observations of contrail occurrence. The second group of models (OUTBREAK models) is derived from a selected subgroup of satellite-based observations of widespread persistent contrails. The mean accuracies for both the SURFACE and OUTBREAK models typically exceeded 75 percent when based on the RUC or ARPS analysis data, but decreased when the logistic models were derived from ARPS forecast data.
Duda, David P.↗
Modeling Fatigue Crack Growth Using Symbolic Regression
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Keven Carlson↗
Uncertainty Quantification for Interpretable Constitutive Models using Genetic Programming based Symbolic Regression
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Donovan Birky↗
Evaluating the Feasibility of Data Simulation for Radiation Research: Estimating RBE Values for HZE Radiation
As the drive for deep space exploration intensifies, a comprehensive understanding of the health effects of radiation exposure becomes paramount to the future of human space flight. However, epidemiological data for radiation exposure, particularly to high-energy (HZE) ions, is limited, partially due to the financial and logistical costs of radiation studies. As an alternative, this study aims to assess the viability of data simulation strategies to accurately model potential study parameters prior to utilizing laboratory conditions. This study estimates a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor based on the solid tumor data for outbred mice provided by Edmundson et al. 2020. Excess relative risk (ERR) models for HZE-Fe ions and gamma radiation were estimated using Poisson regression with Weibull models to represent the background solid tumor hazard without radiation. RBE values were calculated from the ratio of the heavy ion linear slope to the gamma linear slope. The parameters from these models were then applied to simulate iterations of 300 datasets across HZE-Fe doses of 0.05, 0.2, 0.4, and 0.75 Gy; gamma radiation doses of 0.75, 2, and 3 Gy, as well as an unirradiated control group. Sample size per dose varied from 100-500 mice across simulations (800-4000 mice total per dataset). 1500 datasets were generated total (300 each for sample sizes 800, 1600, 3200, and 4000). For each dataset, ERR per radiation type and RBE for HZE-Fe were calculated. The RBE from the Edmondson data was calculated to be 5.55. The RBEs from the simulated data converged around this value across the increasing sample sizes. For n = 4000, the mean RBE across the 300 datasets was 5.71 (95% CI: 5.47-5.95). These results suggest that RBEs calculated from simulated data are credible. Based on this exploration, data simulation is a viable method of testing radiation studies. It provides a method of testing study assumptions and refining research questions prior to embarking on costly laboratory experiments.
Sneha Mehta↗
Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction
The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.
Aida Sharif Rohani↗
Bounding Species Distribution Models
Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].
Stohlgren, Thomas J.↗