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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-arrival infrasound from meteoroids: Fragmentation signatures versus propagation effects in a fine-scale layered atmosphere

Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ∼140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Common Coordination Procedures across Extensible Traffic Management (xTM) to Integrate xTM Operations into the National Airspace System

New categories of missions and vehicle types, such as drone delivery services, on-demand air taxi, and high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) vehicles are being proposed to operate using a novel, highly automated information exchange infrastructure and a community-based, cooperative traffic management concept. Collectively, these new operations are called Extensible Traffic Management (xTM). As these xTM vehicles become more prevalent, their operations will increasingly overlap with existing conventional aircraft and with each other. In order to seamlessly co-exist with current conventional aircraft operations, new coordination procedures, tools and services will be needed to integrate xTM into the future National Airspace System (NAS). In our prior work, we have identified a set of use cases for xTM interactions with air traffic control (ATC), categorized across different xTM operations based on trigger events. Events consisted of ones such as nominal xTM vehicle transition into the ATC environment or an off-nominal emergency landing situation. In this paper, we have extended the prior work to identify commonalities in the coordination procedures across xTM, as well as differences that are specific to the individual xTM operations. The overall results showed that two types of xTM-ATC interactions were prevalent: 1) xTM vehicles transitioning between xTM and ATC operational environments; 2) xTM vehicles being allowed to continue xTM operations in areas that are normally controlled by ATC. The results also suggested that emergency and rare off-nominal events may need specialized procedures for each vehicle type. The overall results suggest that there is a pathway to define a common method of handling and integrating diverse xTM operations in the future NAS, but there need to be procedures for individualized handling of xTM vehicles in infrequent, safety-critical events.

Extensible Traffic Management (xTM)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Communication-Constrained Robust Control and Learning of Grid-Connected

The electric grid of things (EGoT) promises great potential for innovative grid services by tapping into vast load flexibility. However, the unique characteristics of EGoT, being a part of the cyber-physical electric power system, present both opportunities and challenges, especially concerning supply-demand balancing, stability, and communication constraints. Traditionally, centralized control was employed to ensure balance and stability in power systems. However, with the massive influx of EGoT devices, new strategies are needed to efficiently coordinate and control these distributed devices for optimal grid operations. While some studies have explored efficiency and economic models, there remains a gap in ensuring reliability under everyday operations and resilience during extreme conditions. Addressing this gap, this project develops the technology for an Energy Service Interface (ESI) that includes novel pricing, control, learning, and distributed optimization algorithms, which will enable utilities to recruit EGoT assets for crucial grid services such as load flexibility, voltage regulation, and situation-awareness. The key novelty of the proposed technology is the careful distribution of learning and control functions across utility and EGoT asset owners such that provably efficient and resilient grid operations are attained while respecting communication and information-exchange constraints. Specifically, the project team develops machine-learning enhanced load modeling methods to allow EGoT asset owners to learn their load capability and flexibility, and develops pricing-based and decentralized learning-based control so that asset owners can coordinate to meet system-wide demand-supply balance and reliability goals. For extreme situations involving high-impact, low-probability catastrophic events (termed the “black-sky” events), the team also develops (1) a “Feeder-Operating Center-on-a-Laptop” (FOCAL) software that can assist utility personnel in leveraging EGoT assets to accelerate the service recovery of damaged feeders, and (2) distributed optimization algorithms that can coordinate the operation points of EGoT devices under severe communication constraints. The proposed technology has been extensively tested and evaluated through simulations and on a testbed. In summary, as we transition into a more interconnected and digital power grid era, our project’s findings and developments offer a pivotal step toward guaranteeing both efficiency and resilience in the face of both everyday operations and rare “black-sky” events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2013

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Mixtures of Soot Characterized by SP-AMS Spectra Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model

Soot produced by detonation or combustion events exhibits different chemical properties depending on the fuel, device construction, and environmental conditions in which the event occurs. These properties can be useful for defining relevant signatures for probabilistically identifying the different types of events that occurred, based on the soot that is produced from these events. However, it is rare to observe samples of soot from a detonation or combustion that are not contaminated by outside particles. In this paper, we present a method for resolving mixtures of soot to determine the contributions of sources that may be present in samples of recovered soot. We use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to describe the generative process for a sample of recovered soot, and use Variational Bayesian Inference to learn about the parameters associated with the generative model. We demonstrate the utility of this method by considering real samples of mixtures of soot under various frameworks to show that the model is able to identify the different components present in a sample of soot as well as their mixing proportions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Safety Hazards of Batteries and Hydrogen Storage Systems in Proximity

This report addresses the safety concerns and mitigations for battery failures and their impact on hydrogen storage systems. Through an analysis of failure modes, this report highlights the risks posed by thermal runaway and chemical emissions caused by batteries. Although rare, battery thermal failure events may prompt the opening of the relief valve on the hydrogen tank. Strategies such as battery management systems, thermal management systems, and multiple thermally activated pressure relief devices can mitigate these risks. Potential simulations and experiments to better quantify the unique risks posed by lithium-ion batteries near tanks are suggested. Improving safety standards will enable integration of batteries and hydrogen storage systems in various energy storage technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Fire Safety in the Low-Gravity Spacecraft Environment

Research in microgravity (low-gravity) combustion promises innovations and improvements in fire prevention and response for human-crew spacecraft. Findings indicate that material flammability and fire spread in microgravity are significantly affected by atmospheric flow rate, oxygen concentration, and diluent composition. This information can lead to modifications and correlations to standard material-assessment tests for prediction of fire resistance in space. Research on smoke-particle changes in microgravity promises future improvements and increased sensitivity of smoke detectors in spacecraft. Research on fire suppression by extinguishing agents and venting can yield new information on effective control of the rare, but serious fire events in spacecraft.

Friedman, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2010

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis

This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.

Hanson, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multiple-Beam Detection of Fast Transient Radio Sources

A method has been designed for using multiple independent stations to discriminate fast transient radio sources from local anomalies, such as antenna noise or radio frequency interference (RFI). This can improve the sensitivity of incoherent detection for geographically separated stations such as the very long baseline array (VLBA), the future square kilometer array (SKA), or any other coincident observations by multiple separated receivers. The transients are short, broadband pulses of radio energy, often just a few milliseconds long, emitted by a variety of exotic astronomical phenomena. They generally represent rare, high-energy events making them of great scientific value. For RFI-robust adaptive detection of transients, using multiple stations, a family of algorithms has been developed. The technique exploits the fact that the separated stations constitute statistically independent samples of the target. This can be used to adaptively ignore RFI events for superior sensitivity. If the antenna signals are independent and identically distributed (IID), then RFI events are simply outlier data points that can be removed through robust estimation such as a trimmed or Winsorized estimator. The alternative "trimmed" estimator is considered, which excises the strongest n signals from the list of short-beamed intensities. Because local RFI is independent at each antenna, this interference is unlikely to occur at many antennas on the same step. Trimming the strongest signals provides robustness to RFI that can theoretically outperform even the detection performance of the same number of antennas at a single site. This algorithm requires sorting the signals at each time step and dispersion measure, an operation that is computationally tractable for existing array sizes. An alternative uses the various stations to form an ensemble estimate of the conditional density function (CDF) evaluated at each time step. Both methods outperform standard detection strategies on a test sequence of VLBA data, and both are efficient enough for deployment in real-time, online transient detection applications.

Thompson, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Characteristics of Ephemeral Coronal Holes

Small-scale ephemeral coronal holes may be a recurring feature on the solar disk but have received comparatively little attention. These events are characterized by compact structures and short total lifetimes, which are substantially less than a solar disk crossing. We present a systematic search for these events, using Atmospheric Imaging Assembly extreme ultraviolet image data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, covering the time period of 2010–2015. Following strict criteria, this search yielded four clear examples of the ephemeral coronal hole phenomenon. The properties of each event are characterized, including their total lifetime, growth and decay rates, and areas. The magnetic properties of these events are also determined using Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data. Based on these four events, ephemeral coronal holes experience rapid initial growth of up to ∼3000 Msq.m/hr, while the decay phases are typically more gradual. Like conventional coronal holes, the mean magnetic field in each ephemeral coronal hole displays a consistent polarity, with mean magnetic flux densities generally <10 G. No evidence of a corresponding signature is seen in solar wind data at 1 au. Further study is needed to determine whether ephemeral coronal holes are under reported events or are truly rare phenomena.

Inglis, A. R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Tank Vapors in Worker Breathing Zones - Source, Dispersion, and Receptor Data - 20373

A wide range of organic and inorganic chemicals from historical Hanford Site processes are now stored in 177 underground storage tanks at the Hanford tank farms. Workers at the Hanford tank farms have expressed concerns about chemical vapor exposures for many years. During the spring of 2014, worker reports of chemical odors and/or symptoms prompted the development of the Savannah River National Laboratory Hanford Tank Vapor Assessment Team (TVAT) and their resulting independent assessment and recommendations concerning tank farm worker reports of vapors. The Tank Vapor Assessment report included a hypothesis that 'vapors coming out of tanks in high concentration (bolus) plumes sporadically intersected with the breathing zones of workers, resulting in brief but intense exposures to some workers.' The focus of this effort is to present current knowledge to describe the mechanisms by which workers may experience short duration vapor concentrations above background in the tank farms environment. The TVAT hypothesis that workers have experienced concentrations approaching 80% of the tank headspace up to 3 meters (10 feet) from tank sources is not supported by sampling data or modeling results. Modeling indicates that concentrations are quickly reduced from the source, and that the upper end of predicted concentrations at worker breathing zones are a factor of 10 or more lower than source concentrations. Area measurements corroborate the fact that worker breathing zone concentrations are 10 to 100 times lower than source concentrations, and events with elevated concentrations are rare. These reduced vapor concentration levels may result in detectable odors or irritation, depending on a worker's specific odor threshold and sensitivity to the chemical species. Short-duration vapor events may be mitigated by evaluating daily atmospheric conditions in conjunction with planned tank farm activities. Monitoring changing conditions related to tank vapors concentrations at the source and within worker breathing zone is also an important step to protect workers from short duration elevated concentration events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

The REDTOP experiment: Rare $\eta/\eta^{\prime}$ Decays To Probe New Physics

The $\eta$ and $\eta^{\prime}$ mesons are nearly unique in the particle universe since they are almost Goldstone bosons and the dynamics of their decays are strongly constrained. The integrated $\eta$-meson samples collected in earlier experiments amount to $\sim10^{9}$ events. A new experiment, REDTOP (Rare Eta Decays To Probe New Physics), is being proposed, with the intent of collecting a data sample of order 10$^{14}$ $\eta$ (10$^{12}$ $\eta^{\prime}$) for studying very rare decays. Such statistics are sufficient for investigating several symmetry violations, and for searching for particles and fields beyond the Standard Model. In this work we present several studies evaluating REDTOP sensitivity to processes that couple the Standard Model to New Physics through all four of the so-called \emph{portals}: the Vector, the Scalar, the Axion and the Heavy Lepton portal. The sensitivity of the experiment is also adequate for probing several conservation laws, in particular $CP$, $T$ and Lepton Universality, and for the determination of the $\eta$ form factors, which is crucial for the interpretation of the recent measurement of muon $g-2$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1989

The role of polar stratospheric clouds on total ozone minihole events

Using seven years of data from tha SAM 2 (Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement 2) and TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) instruments, along with 70 mbar temperatures extracted from an NMC analysis, the effect of the austral spring polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) on the formation of total ozone miniholes is investigated. A total ozone minihole event is designated as the rapid decrease of more than 20 DU of total ozone over a time period of a day and a spatial extent of approximately 1000 by 1000 km. The severe decrease of total ozone during these minihole events could be explained in part by PSC being formed at altitudes of 10 to 24 km and preventing scattered UV radiation from ozone below the cloud from reaching the TOMS instrument. A result of the cloud's opaqueness is that the total ozone retrieval from TOMS data would underestimate the ozone column in the vicinity of the PSC. The approach to investigate the effect of PSC on total ozone was to use SAM 2 aerosol extinction values in conjunction with NMC stratospheric temperatures to determine if PSC are present during total ozone minihole events occurring during August and September, 1979 to 1986. The minihole events during these seven years were divided into two types: type 1, where the minihole region of 24 hour darkness from regions exposed to sunlight, and type 2, where the minihole occurred 5 to 10 degrees north of the terminator. The presence of PSC in a given region was ascertained by a maximum aerosol extinction greater than .006/km occurring with a temperature less than 189 K. It is found that PSC are consistently present with type 2 minihole events. This is contrasted with PSC rarely occurring in the same vicinity of type 2 miniholes. Also observed of that type 1 minihole events have minimum total ozone values which are on the average 3 to 10 DU smaller than type 2 miniholes. It can be concluded that care must be taken when trying to deduce a dynamical explanation of minihole events near the polar terminator and the role of PSC must be accounted for in type 1 minihole formation.

Sabutis, Joseph L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

4th TDAMM Workshop White Paper

Time-Domain and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (TDAMM) is entering a fundamentally new phase characterized by an unprecedented increase in the rate and diversity of astrophysical transient detections. The community is transitioning from a discovery-limited to a follow-up-limited era, driven by major investments across electromagnetic, gravitational-wave, and neutrino observatories. Upcoming facilities such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and wide-field survey instruments will produce a deluge of time-domain alerts, reaching millions of events per night. Simultaneously, upgrades to the gravitational-wave network (LVK O5 and beyond) and neutrino observatories (IceCube Gen2) will significantly increase the detection rates of non-electromagnetic messengers. New high-energy missions and expansions of the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) will further enhance discovery capabilities across the gamma-ray and X-ray regimes. This convergence of capabilities represents a transformative opportunity: for the first time, the community will routinely detect rare and high-impact events across multiple messengers. However, the scientific return from these discoveries will depend critically on the ability to rapidly identify, prioritize, and coordinate follow-up observations across a heterogeneous and globally distributed set of facilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Threat Landscape for BESS and IBR

The cyber risk landscape for BESS and IBR can be broken up by threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences for these systems. This presentation walks through the cyber risk landscape for BESS through the lens of consequence-informed awareness and mitigation for each risk factor. Threats with varying capabilities have been demonstrated in real-world events. Though threat actors can rarely be directly influenced by organizations, exposure of systems to adversaries can be limited (a known issue with IBR systems) to reduce likelihood of adversaries accessing systems with disruptive consequences. Common trends in disclosed IBR vulnerabilities include weak password generation or managements for various devices or services and web portal vulnerabilities that provide unauthorized access to data or capabilities or elevated user privileges. Understanding these common vulnerabilities and considering the consequences if these types of vulnerabilities were to occur can help mitigate risk. Consequences range from loss-of-view events that have no reliability impact to asset damage or grid stability impacts. Five case studies are briefly shared to highlight trends in real-world events affecting IBR.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

What We Don't Understand About Ion Acceleration Flares

There are now strong associations between the (3)He-rich, Fe-rich ions in "impulsive" solar energetic particle (SEP) events and the similar abundances derived from gamma-ray lines from flares. Compact flares, where wave energy can predominate, are ideal sites for the study of wave-particle physics. Yet there are nagging questions about the magnetic geometry, the relation between ions that escape and those that interact, and the relative roles of cascading Alfven waves and the EMIC waves required to enhance He-3. There are also questions about the relative timing of ion and electron acceleration and of heating; these relate to the variation of ionization states before and during acceleration and during transport out of the corona. We can construct a model that addresses many of these issues, but problems do remain. Our greatest lack is realistic theoretical simulations of element abundances, spectra, and their variations. By contrast, we now have a much better idea of the acceleration at CME-driven shock waves in the rare but large "gradual" SEP events, largely because of their slow temporal evolution and great spatial extent.

Reames, Donald V.↗