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Review of advanced radiator technologies for spacecraft power systems and space thermal control

A two-part overview of progress in space radiator technologies is presented. The first part reviews and compares the innovative heat-rejection system concepts proposed during the past decade, some of which have been developed to the breadboard demonstration stage. Included are space-constructable radiators with heat pipes, variable-surface-area radiators, rotating solid radiators, moving-belt radiators, rotating film radiators, liquid droplet radiators, Curie point radiators, and rotating bubble-membrane radiators. The second part summarizes a multielement project including focused hardware development under the Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) High Capacity Power program carried out by the NASA Lewis Research Center and its contractors to develop lightweight space radiators in support of Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) power systems technology.

Juhasz, Albert J.↗

Radiative interactions in multi-dimensional chemically reacting flows using Monte Carlo simulations

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is applied to analyze radiative heat transfer in nongray gases. The nongray model employed is based on the statistical narrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. The amount and transfer of the emitted radiative energy in a finite volume element within a medium are considered in an exact manner. The spectral correlation between transmittances of two different segments of the same path in a medium makes the statistical relationship different from the conventional relationship, which only provides the non-correlated results for nongray methods is discussed. Validation of the Monte Carlo formulations is conducted by comparing results of this method of other solutions. In order to further establish the validity of the MCM, a relatively simple problem of radiative interactions in laminar parallel plate flows is considered. One-dimensional correlated Monte Carlo formulations are applied to investigate radiative heat transfer. The nongray Monte Carlo solutions are also obtained for the same problem and they also essentially match the available analytical solutions. the exact correlated and non-correlated Monte Carlo formulations are very complicated for multi-dimensional systems. However, by introducing the assumption of an infinitesimal volume element, the approximate correlated and non-correlated formulations are obtained which are much simpler than the exact formulations. Consideration of different problems and comparison of different solutions reveal that the approximate and exact correlated solutions agree very well, and so do the approximate and exact non-correlated solutions. However, the two non-correlated solutions have no physical meaning because they significantly differ from the correlated solutions. An accurate prediction of radiative heat transfer in any nongray and multi-dimensional system is possible by using the approximate correlated formulations. Radiative interactions are investigated in chemically reacting compressible flows of premixed hydrogen and air in an expanding nozzle. The governing equations are based on the fully elliptic Navier-Stokes equations. Chemical reaction mechanisms were described by a finite rate chemistry model. The correlated Monte Carlo method developed earlier was employed to simulate multi-dimensional radiative heat transfer. Results obtained demonstrate that radiative effects on the flowfield are minimal but radiative effects on the wall heat transfer are significant. Extensive parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effects of equivalence ratio, wall temperature, inlet flow temperature, and nozzle size on the radiative and conductive wall fluxes.

Liu, Jiwen↗

Radiative flux opens new window on climate research

For several decades, global satellite observations have been made of the rate at which electromagnetic energy (radiative flux) is emerging from the top of the atmosphere of our planet in the spectral range of about 0.2-50.0 microns. At the same time, models have been developed to infer the radiative flux at the surface from the values observed by the satellites at the upper boundary. The balance of incoming and outgoing radiative flux (radiation budget) at both boundaries, determines the net gain or loss of the radiative energy within an atmospheric column. Climate researchers can use the radiative flux as a tool to validate climate models, separate the radiative impact of clouds from surface and atmosphere contributions, and to understand the global hydrological cycle. When applied to physical processes occurring at the surface, information on the radiative flux has the potential to substantially advance our understanding of the transport of heat, moisture, and momentum across the surface/atmosphere interface. Geophysicists of many disciplines stand to benefit from efforts to improve the use of this latter untapped resource. Oceanographers can improve the representation of the selective absorption of radiation in the oceans; biologists and ecologists can improve their models for carbon dioxide exchange and biological heating in oceans; agronomists can model more realistically biomass and crop yields; and environmentalists can obtain better assessment of natural resources of radiation.

Pinker, R. T.↗

Theoretical and Numerical Investigation of Radiative Extinction of Diffusion Flames

The influence of soot radiation on diffusion flames was investigated using both analytical and numerical techniques. Soot generated in diffusion flames dominate the flame radiation over gaseous combustion products and can significantly lower the temperature of the flame. In low gravity situations there can be significant accumulation of soot and combustion products in the vicinity of the primary reaction zone owing to the absence of any convective buoyant flow. Such situations may result in substantial suppression of chemical activities in a flame, and the possibility of a radiative extinction may also be anticipated. The purpose of this work was to not only investigate the possibility of radiative extinction of a diffusion flame but also to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the influence of soot radiation on a diffusion flame. In this study, first a hypothetical radiative loss profile of the form of a sech(sup 2) was assumed to influence a pure diffusion flame. It was observed that the reaction zone can, under certain circumstances, move through the radiative loss zone and locate itself on the fuel side of the loss zone contrary to our initial postulate. On increasing the intensity and/or width of the loss zone it was possible to extinguish the flame, and extinction plots were generated. In the presence of a convective flow, however, the movement of the temperature and reaction rate peaks indicated that the flame behavior is more complicated compared to a pure diffusional flame. A comprehensive model of soot formation, oxidation and radiation was used in a more involved analysis. The soot model of Syed, Stewart and Moss was used for soot nucleation and growth and the model of Nagle and Strickland-Constable was used for soot oxidation. The soot radiation was considered in the optically thin limit. An analysis of the flame structure revealed that the radiative loss term is countered both by the reaction term and the diffusion term. The essential balance for the soot volume fraction was found to be between the processes of soot convection and soot growth. Such a balance yielded to analytical treatment and the soot volume fraction could be expressed in the form of an integral. The integral was evaluated using two approximate methods and the results agreed very well with the numerical solutions for all cases examined.

Ray, Anjan↗

An Experimental and Theoretical Study of Radiative Extinction of Diffusion Flames

The objective of this research was to experimentally and theoretically investigate the radiation-induced extinction of gaseous diffusion flames in microgravity. The microgravity conditions were required because radiation-induced extinction is generally not possible in 1-g but is highly likely in microgravity. In 1-g, the flame-generated particulates (e.g. soot) and gaseous combustion products that are responsible for flame radiation, are swept away from the high temperature reaction zone by the buoyancy-induced flow and a steady state is developed. In microgravity, however, the absence of buoyancy-induced flow which transports the fuel and the oxidizer to the combustion zone and removes the hot combustion products from it enhances the flame radiation due to: (1) transient build-up of the combustion products in the flame zone which increases the gas radiation, and (2) longer residence time makes conditions appropriate for substantial amounts of soot to form which is usually responsible for most of the radiative heat loss. Numerical calculations conducted during the course of this work show that even non-radiative flames continue to become "weaker" (diminished burning rate per unit flame area) due to reduced rates of convective and diffusive transport. Thus, it was anticipated that radiative heat loss may eventually extinguish the already "weak" microgravity diffusion flame. While this hypothesis appears convincing and our numerical calculations support it, experiments for a long enough microgravity time could not be conducted during the course of this research to provide an experimental proof. Space shuttle experiments on candle flames show that in an infinite ambient atmosphere, the hemispherical candle flame in microgravity will burn indefinitely. It was hoped that radiative extinction can be experimentally shown by the aerodynamically stabilized gaseous diffusion flames where the fuel supply rate was externally controlled. While substantial progress toward this goal was made during this project, identifying the experimental conditions for which radiative extinction occurs for various fuels requires further study. Details concerning this research which are discussed in published articles are included in the appendices.

Atreya, Arvind↗

Cloud Spatial Structure and 3D Radiative Transfer

Cloud radiative properties are sensitive to drop size and other parameters of cloud micro-structure, but also to cloud shape,spacing, and other parameters of cloud macro-structure, including internal fractal structure. New information on cloud structure is being derived from a variety of cloud radars. Ongoing field programs such as Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (DoE/ARM) are improving the measurement and modelling of physical and radiative properties of clouds. A parallel effort is underway to improve cloud remote sensing, especially from the new suite of EOS-AM1 instruments which will provide higher spectral, spatial resolution, and/or angular resolution. Key parameters for improving pixel-scale retrievals are cloud thickness and photon mean-free-path, which together determine the scale of "radiative smoothing" of cloud fluxes and radiances. This scale has been observed as a change in the spatial spectrum of Landsat cloud radiances, and was also recently found with the Goddard micropulse lidar, by searching for returns from directions nonparallel to the incident beam. "Offbeam" Lidar returns are now being used to estimate the cloud "radiative Green's function", G,which depends on cloud thickness and may be used to retrieve that important quantity. G is also being applied to improving simple IPA estimates of cloud radiative properties. This and other measurements of 3D transfer in clouds, coupled with Monte Carlo and other 3D transfer methods, are beginning to provide a better understanding of the dependence of adiation on cloud inhomogeneity, and to suggest new retrieval and parameterization algorithms which take account of cloud inhomogeneity. An international "Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes" or I3RC, program is beginning to coordinate and evaluate the variety of 3D radiative transfer methods now available, and to make them more widely available. Information is on the Web at: http://climate.qsfc.nasa.crov/I3RC. Input consists of selected cloud fields derived from data sources such as radar, microwave and satellite, and from models involved in the GEWEX Cloud Systems Studies. Output is selected radiative quantities that characterize the large- scale properties of the fields of radiative fluxes and heating. Several example cloud fields will be used to illustrate.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Large Diameter, Radiative Extinction Experiments with Decane Droplets in Microgravity

The extinction of a diffusion flame is of fundamental interest in combustion science. Linan, Law, and Chung and Law analytically and experimentally determined an extinction boundary in terms of droplet diameter and pressure for a single droplet due to Damkohler, or blowoff, extinction. More recently, other researchers demonstrated extinction due to finite rate kinetics in reduced gravity for free droplets of heptane. Chao modeled the effect of radiative heat loss on a quasi-steady spherically symmetric single droplet burning in the absence of buoyancy. They determined that for increasing droplet diameter, a second limit can be reached such that combustion is no longer possible. This second, larger droplet diameter limit arises due to radiative heat loss, which increases with increasing droplet and flame diameter. This increase in radiative heat loss arises due to an increase in the surface area of the flame. Recently, Marchese modeled fuel droplets with detailed chemistry and radiative effects, and compared the results to other work. The modeling also showed the importance of radiative loss and radiative extinction Experiments examined the behavior of a large droplet of decane burning in reduced gravity onboard the NASA Lewis DC-9 aircraft, but did not show a radiative extinction boundary due to g-jitter (Variations in gravitational level and direction) effects. Dietrich conducted experiments in the reduced gravity environment of the Space Shuttle. This work showed that the extinction diameter of methanol droplets increased when the initial diameter of the droplets was large (in this case, approximately 5 mm). Theoretical results agreed with these experimental results only when the theory included radiative effects . Radiative extinction was experimentally verified by Nayagam in a later Shuttle mission. The following work focuses on the combustion and extinction of a single fuel droplet. The goal is to experimentally determine a large droplet diameter limit that arises due to radiative heat loss from the flame to the surroundings.

Easton, John↗

Effects of Gas-Phase Radiation and Detailed Kinetics on the Burning and Extinction of a Solid Fuel

This is the first attempt to analyze both radiation and detailed kinetics on the burning and extinction of a solid fuel in a stagnation-point diffusion flame. We present a detailed and comparatively accurate computational model of a solid fuel flame along with a quantitative study of the kinetics mechanism, radiation interactions, and the extinction limits of the flame. A detailed kinetics model for the burning of solid trioxane (a trimer of formaldehyde) is coupled with a narrowband radiation model, with carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and water vapor as the gas-phase participating media. The solution of the solid trioxane diffusion flame over the flammable regime is presented in some detail, as this is the first solution of a heterogeneous trioxane flame. We identify high-temperature and low-temperature reaction paths for the heterogeneous trioxane flame. We then compare the adiabatic solution to solutions that include Surface radiation only and gas-phase and surface radiation using a black surface model. The analysis includes discussion of detailed flame chemistry over the flammable regime and, in particular, at the low stretch extinction limit. We emphasize the low stretch regime of the radiatively participating flame, since this is the region representative of microgravity flames. When only surface radiation is included, two extinction limits exist (the blow-off limit, and the low stretch radiative limit), and the burning rate and maximum flame temperatures are lower, as expected. With the inclusion of surface and gas-phase radiation, results show that, while flame temperatures are lower, the burning rate of the trioxane diffusion flame may actually increase at low stretch rate due to radiative feedback from the flame to the surface.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the range -50 to -190 W sq m per unit inadvisable optical depth. The magnitudes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger forcing in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce the actual major radiative forcing events that contribute to any global-average climate effect. Detailed comparisons of calculated and measured forcings for specific events are used for more refined tests of closure.

Russell, P. B.↗

Radiation Hardness Assurance for Space Systems

The space radiation environment can lead to extremely harsh operating conditions for on-board electronic box and systems. The characteristics of the radiation environment are highly dependent on the type of mission (date, duration and orbit). Radiation accelerates the aging of the electronic parts and material and can lead to a degradation of electrical performance; it can also create transient phenomena on parts. Such damage at the part level can induce damage or functional failure at electronic box, subsystem, and system levels. A rigorous methodology is needed to ensure that the radiation environment does not compromise the functionality and performance of the electronics during the system life. This methodology is called hardness assurance. It consists of those activities undertaken to ensure that the electronic piece parts placed in the space system perform to their design specifications after exposure to the space environment. It deals with system requirements, environmental definitions, part selection, part testing, shielding and radiation tolerant design. All these elements should play together in order to produce a system tolerant to.the radiation environment. An overview of the different steps of a space system hardness assurance program is given in section 2. In order to define the mission radiation specifications and compare these requirements to radiation test data, a detailed knowledge of the space environment and the corresponding electronic device failure mechanisms is required. The presentation by J. Mazur deals with the Earth space radiation environment as well as the internal environment of a spacecraft. The presentation by J. Schwank deals with ionization effects, and the presentation by T. Weatherford deals with Single particle Event Phenomena (SEP) in semiconductor devices and microcircuits. These three presentations provide more detailed background to complement the sections 3 and 4. Part selection and categorization are discussed in section 5. Section 6 presents the organization of the hardness assurance within a project. Section 7 discusses emerging radiation hardness assurance issues.

Poivey, Christian↗

Overview of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR)

The SuperSonic Transport (SST) development program within the US was based at the Langley Research Center as was the Apollo radiation testing facility (Space Radiation Effects Laboratory) with associated radiation research groups. It was natural for the issues of the SST to be first recognized by this unique combination of research programs. With a re-examination of the technologies for commercial supersonic flight and the possible development of a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT), the remaining issues of the SST required resolution. It was the progress of SST radiation exposure research program founded by T. Foelsche at the Langley Research Center and the identified remaining issues after that project over twenty-five years ago which became the launch point of the current atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) research project. Added emphasis to the need for reassessment of atmospheric radiation resulted from the major lowering of the recommended occupational exposure limits, the inclusion of aircrew as radiation workers, and the recognition of civil aircrew as a major source of occupational exposures. Furthermore, the work of Ferenc Hajnal of the Environmental Measurements Laboratory brought greater focus to the uncertainties in the neutron flux at high altitudes. A re-examination of the issues involved was committed at the Langley Research Center and by the National Council on Radiation Protection (NCRP). As a result of the NCRP review, a new flight package was assembled and flown during solar minimum at which time the galactic cosmic radiation is at a maximum (June 1997). The present workshop is the initial analysis of the new data from that flight. The present paper is an overview of the status of knowledge of atmospheric ionizing radiations. We will re-examine the exposures of the world population and examine the context of aircrew exposures with implications for the results of the present research. A condensed version of this report was given at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the NCRP with proceedings published in the journal of Health Physics.

Wilson, J. W.↗

An Introduction to Atmospheric Radiation: Review for the Bulletin of AMS

Whether you like a certain geophysical book or not, largely depends on your background. The field of radiative transfer and atmospheric radiation, in particular, combines people with a wide range of mathematical skills: from theoretical astrophysicists and nuclear physicists to meteorologists and ecologists. There is always a delicate balance between physical explanations and their mathematical interpretations. This balance is very personal and is based on your background. I came to the field of atmospheric radiative transfer as a mathematician with little knowledge of atmospheric physics. After being in the field for more than a decade, I still have gaps in my atmospheric science education. Thus I assess a radiative transfer book fi-om two main criteria: how well does it describe the material that is familiar to me (the radiative transfer equation and its numerical solutions) and how well does it help me to fill the gaps in my personal knowledge. So I present this review fi-om the perspective of a former mathematician working in the field of atmospheric radiation. . After being asked to review the book, my first intention was to compare the new edition with the previous one (Liou, 1980). In doing so, you can clearly follow the progress made in the field of atmospheric radiation over the past two decades. If there are few changes (as in Fundamental Radiative Transfer) or no changes at all (as in the Maxwell s equations), then the field has not seen much development. To the contrary, many differences between the two editions illustrate areas of major progress in the field, such as evidenced in Thermal Ineared Radiative Transfer and even in the creations of completely new fields like Three-Dimensional Radiative Transfer or Light Scattering by Nonspherical Particles. Obviously, the major changes happened not in the theory, which is at least half a century old, but in data quality and completely new measurements (mostly due to new satellite data) with higher accuracy and more reliability. The new edition illustrates this progress well.

Marshak, Alexander↗

Introduction to Radiation Issues for International Space Station Extravehicular Activities

The International Space Station (ISS) provides significant challenges for radiation protection of the crew due to a combination of circumstances including: the extended duration of missions for many crewmembers, the exceptionally dynamic nature of the radiation environment in ISS orbit, and the necessity for numerous planned extravehicular activities (EVA) for station construction and maintenance. Radiation protection requires accurate radiation dose measurements and precise risk modeling of the transmission of high fluxes of energetic electrons and protons through the relatively thin shielding provided by the space suits worn during EVA. Experiments and analyses have been performed due to the necessity to assure complete radiation safety for the EVA crew and thereby ensure mission success. The detailed characterization described of the material and topological properties of the ISS space suits can be used as a basis for design of space suits used in future exploration missions. In radiation protection practices, risk from exposure to ionizing radiation is determined analytically by the level of exposure, the detrimental quality of the radiation field, the inherent radiosensitivity of the tissues or organs irradiated, and the age and gender of the person at the time of exposure. During low Earth orbit (LEO) EVA, the relatively high fluxes of low-energy electrons and protons lead to large variations in exposure of the skin, lens of the eye, and tissues in other shallow anatomical locations. The technical papers in this publication describe a number of ground-based experiments that precisely measure the thickness of the NASA extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) and Russian Zvezda Orlan-M suits using medical computerized tomography (CT) X-ray analysis, and particle accelerator experiments that measure the minimum kinetic energy required by electrons and photons to penetrate major components of the suits. These studies provide information necessary for improving the understanding of the current ISS space suits and provide insights into improved approaches for the design of future suits. This chapter begins with a summary of the dynamic ionizing radiation environment in LEO space and introduces the concepts and quantities used to quantify exposure to space radiation in LEO. The space suits used for EVA and the experimental partial human phantom are described. Subsequent chapters report results from measured charged particle fields before and after incident protons and secondary particles are transported through the space suits and into organs and tissues.

Shavers, M. R.↗

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Design and "As Flown" Radiation Environments for Materials in Low Earth Orbit

A conservative design approach was adopted by the International Space Station Program for specifying total ionizing radiation dose requirements for use in selecting and qualifying materials for construction of the International Space Station. The total ionizing dose design environment included in SSP 30512 Space Station Ionizing Radiation Design Environment is based on trapped proton and electron fluence derived from the solar maximum versions of the AE-8 and AP-8 models, respectively, specified for a circular orbit at 500 km altitude and 51.7 degree inclination. Since launch, the range of altitudes utilized for Space Station operations vary from a minimum of approximately 330 km to a maximum of approximately 405 km with a mean operational altitude less than 400 km. The design environment, therefore, overestimates the radiation environment because the particle flux in the South Atlantic Anomaly is the primary contributor to radiation dose in low Earth orbit and flux within the Anomaly is altitude dependent. In addition, a 2X multiplier is often applied to the design environment to cover effects from the contributions of galactic cosmic rays, solar energetic particle events, geomagnetic storms, and uncertainties in the trapped radiation models which are not explicitly included in the design environment. Application of this environment may give radiation dose overestimates on the order of 1OX to 30X for materials exposed to the space environment, suggesting that materials originally qualified for ten year exposures on orbit may be used for longer periods without replacement. In this paper we evaluate the "as flown" radiation environments derived from historical records of the ISS flight trajectory since launch and compare the results with the SSP 30512 design environment to document the magnitude of the radiation dose overestimate provided by the design environment. "As flown" environments are obtained from application of the AE-8/AP-8 trapped particle models along the ISS flight trajectory including variations in altitude due to decay of the vehicle orbit and periodic reboosts to higher altitudes. In addition, an estimate of the AE-8 model to predict low Earth orbit electron flux (because the radiation dose for thin materials is dominated by the electron component of the radiation environment) is presented based on comparisons of the AE-8 model to measurements of electron integral flux at approximately 850 km from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector on board the NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellite.

Minow, Joseph↗

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗