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At least 397 records · Page 22

Ares I-X Range Safety Flight Envelope Analysis

Ares I-X was the first test flight of NASA's Constellation Program's Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle designed to provide manned access to low Earth orbit. As a one-time test flight, the Air Force's 45th Space Wing required a series of Range Safety analysis data products to be developed for the specified launch date and mission trajectory prior to granting flight approval on the Eastern Range. The range safety data package is required to ensure that the public, launch area, and launch complex personnel and resources are provided with an acceptable level of safety and that all aspects of prelaunch and launch operations adhere to applicable public laws. The analysis data products, defined in the Air Force Space Command Manual 91-710, Volume 2, consisted of a nominal trajectory, three sigma trajectory envelopes, stage impact footprints, acoustic intensity contours, trajectory turn angles resulting from potential vehicle malfunctions (including flight software failures), characterization of potential debris, and debris impact footprints. These data products were developed under the auspices of the Constellation's Program Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel and its Range Safety Trajectory Working Group with the intent of beginning the framework for the operational vehicle data products and providing programmatic review and oversight. A multi-center NASA team in conjunction with the 45th Space Wing, collaborated within the Trajectory Working Group forum to define the data product development processes, performed the analyses necessary to generate the data products, and performed independent verification and validation of the data products. This paper outlines the Range Safety data requirements and provides an overview of the processes established to develop both the data products and the individual analyses used to develop the data products, and it summarizes the results of the analyses required for the Ares I-X launch.

Starr, Brett R.↗

Dimensions of Credibility in Models and Simulations

Based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) work in developing a standard for models and simulations (M&S), the subject of credibility in M&S became a distinct focus. This is an indirect result from the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB), which eventually resulted in an action, among others, to improve the rigor in NASA's M&S practices. The focus of this action came to mean a standardized method for assessing and reporting results from any type of M&S. As is typical in the standards development process, this necessarily developed into defming a common terminology base, common documentation requirements (especially for M&S used in critical decision making), and a method for assessing the credibility of M&S results. What surfaced in the development of the NASA Standard was the various dimensions credibility to consider when accepting the results from any model or simulation analysis. The eight generally relevant factors of credibility chosen in the NASA Standard proved only one aspect in the dimensionality of M&S credibility. At the next level of detail, the full comprehension of some of the factors requires an understanding along a couple of dimensions as well. Included in this discussion are the prerequisites for the appropriate use of a given M&S, the choice of factors in credibility assessment with their inherent dimensionality, and minimum requirements for fully reporting M&S results.

Steele, Martin J.↗

The Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) development efforts in the United States have demonstrated the technical viability and performance potential of NTP systems. For example, Project Rover (1955 - 1973) completed 22 high power rocket reactor tests. Peak performances included operating at an average hydrogen exhaust temperature of 2550 K and a peak fuel power density of 5200 MW/m3 (Pewee test), operating at a thrust of 930 kN (Phoebus-2A test), and operating for 62.7 minutes in a single burn (NRX-A6 test). Results from Project Rover indicated that an NTP system with a high thrust-to-weight ratio and a specific impulse greater than 900 s would be feasible. Excellent results were also obtained by the former Soviet Union. Although historical programs had promising results, many factors would affect the development of a 21st century nuclear thermal rocket (NTR). Test facilities built in the US during Project Rover no longer exist. However, advances in analytical techniques, the ability to utilize or adapt existing facilities and infrastructure, and the ability to develop a limited number of new test facilities may enable affordable development, qualification, and utilization of a Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS). Bead-loaded graphite fuel was utilized throughout the Rover/NERVA program, and coated graphite composite fuel (tested in the Nuclear Furnace) and cermet fuel both show potential for even higher performance than that demonstrated in the Rover/NERVA engine tests.. NASA's NCPS project was initiated in October, 2011, with the goal of assessing the affordability and viability of an NCPS. FY 2014 activities are focused on fabrication and test (non-nuclear) of both coated graphite composite fuel elements and cermet fuel elements. Additional activities include developing a pre-conceptual design of the NCPS stage and evaluating affordable strategies for NCPS development, qualification, and utilization. NCPS stage designs are focused on supporting human Mars missions. The NCPS is being designed to readily integrate with the Space Launch System (SLS). A wide range of strategies for enabling affordable NCPS development, qualification, and utilization should be considered. These include multiple test and demonstration strategies (both ground and in-space), multiple potential test sites, and multiple engine designs. Two potential NCPS fuels are currently under consideration - coated graphite composite fuel and tungsten cermet fuel. During 2014 a representative, partial length (approximately 16") coated graphite composite fuel element with prototypic depleted uranium loading is being fabricated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). In addition, a representative, partial length (approximately 16") cermet fuel element with prototypic depleted uranium loading is being fabricated at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During the development process small samples (approximately 3" length) will be tested in the Compact Fuel Element Environmental Tester (CFEET) at high temperature (approximately 2800 K) in a hydrogen environment to help ensure that basic fuel design and manufacturing process are adequate and have been performed correctly. Once designs and processes have been developed, longer fuel element segments will be fabricated and tested in the Nuclear Thermal Rocket Element Environmental Simulator (NTREE) at high temperature (approximately 2800 K) and in flowing hydrogen.

Houts, Michael G.↗

Fracture Toughness of Carbon Fiber Composites Containing Various Fiber Sizings and a Puncture Self-Healing Thermoplastic Matrix

Ongoing efforts at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) have resulted in the identification of several commercially available thermoplastic resin systems which self-heal after ballistic impact and through penetration. One of these resins, polybutylene graft copolymer (PBg), was selected as a matrix for processing with unsized carbon fibers to fabricate reinforced composites for further evaluation. During process development, data from thermo-physical analyses was utilized to determine a processing cycle to fabricate laminate panels, which were analyzed by photo microscopy and acid digestion. The process cycle was further optimized based on these results to fabricate panels for mechanical property characterization. The results of the processing development effort of this composite material, as well as the results of the mechanical property characterization, indicated that bonding between the fiber and PBg was not adequate. Therefore, three sizings were investigated in this work to assess their potential to improve fiber/matrix bonding compared to previously tested unsized IM7 fiber. Unidirectional prepreg was made at NASA LaRC from three sized carbon fibers and utilized to fabricate test coupons that were tested in double cantilever beam configurations to determine GIc fracture toughness.

Cano, Roberto J.↗

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Bio-Optimized Technologies to Keep Thermoplastics out of Landfills and the Environment (BOTTLE)

Plastics have revolutionized modern life, but reliance on these fossil-based materials that persist for centuries is causing a pollution crisis and contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To develop new technologies to address this problem, the Bio-Optimized Technologies to keep Thermoplastics out of Landfills and the Environment (BOTTLE) Consortium will deliver selective, scalable technologies to enable cost-effective recycling, upcycling, and increased energy efficiency. BOTTLE is an interdisciplinary team of experts that aim to develop selective, scalable processes to deconstruct and upcycle today's plastics and thermosets, redesign tomorrow's plastics to be recyclable-by-design (RBD) and derived from both bio-based and plastic waste-based feedstocks, work with industrial partners across the value chain to catalyze the circular economy for plastics, and leverage AMO and BETO investments in analysis-guided R&D, integrated process development, chemical and biological catalysis, materials characterization, modeling, and data science. BOTTLE is guided by techno-economic analysis (TEA) and supply chain-based life-cycle assessment (LCA). BOTTLE comprises members from ten partner institutions. Primary outcomes to date include establishment of a full consortium, impactful, benchmarking analyses that will be important for the plastics recycling and upcycling community, and multiple impactful, high-impact publications across the breadth of our research portfolio.

bio-optimized↗

Development of Leaching Processes for the Recovery of Rare Earth Elements from Acid Mine Drainage Precipitates

Acid mine drainage (AMD) has been a challenge for mine operators to address and has had significant environmental impacts when there is a failure to address it. Fortunately, there is a regulation in the US that requires the treatment of AMD before water can be discharged into the environment. AMD is generated when sulfide minerals are exposed to water and air from mining. The acidic water then leaches metals from the surrounding rock, creating the potential for environmental contamination of this acidic water containing dissolved metals. AMD can contain high concentrations of metals like iron, aluminum, and manganese and also have been shown to contain trace concentrations of critical minerals, including rare earth elements (REEs). This environmental waste stream is now being researched as a potential source for REEs. There is a patented process for processing and extracting REEs from AMD which produces rare earth oxide preconcentrate (REOP) from AMD treatment precipitates and a final stage mixed rare earth oxide (MREO) product. This body of research examines a selective leaching process for each of these products and determines the activation energy associated with the leaching processes. Acid leaching with HCl was examined to selectively leach REEs from REOP while contaminant metals remained in the solid residue. The maximum leaching recovery of the REEs from the REOP was approximately 90% and an activation energy of 6.4 kJ/mol at pH 3.0. Ammonium chloride leaching was examined to selectively remove contaminant metals from a MREO product. The ammonium chloride process successfully leached major contaminant metals in excess of 85% recovery and had a maximum activation energy of 40.0 kJ/mol.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Capability Maturity Model (CMM) for Software Process Improvements

This slide presentation reviews the Avionic Systems Division's implementation of the Capability Maturity Model (CMM) for improvements in the software development process. The presentation reviews the process involved in implementing the model and the benefits of using CMM to improve the software development process.

Ling, Robert Y.↗

High Reynolds Number Assessment of Boundary Layer Transition Trip Drag at Mach 2.48 on HSCT Configuration

The NASA High Speed Research (HSR) Program is intended to establish a technology base enabling industry development of an economically viable and environmentally acceptable second generation high speed civil transport (HSCT). The HSR program consists of work directed towards several broad technology areas, one of which is aerodynamic performance. The objective of the Configuration Aerodynamics task of the Aerodynamic Performance technology area is the development of aerodynamic drag reduction, stability and control, and propulsion airframe integration technologies required to support the HSCT development process. Towards this goal, computational and empirical based aerodynamic design tools are being developed, evaluated, and validated through ground based experimental testing. In addition, methods for ground to flight scaling are being developed and refined. Successful development of validated design and scaling methodologies will result in improved economy of operation for an HSCT and reduce uncertainty in full-scale flight predictions throughout the development process.

Wahls, Richard↗

Building Safer Systems With SpecTRM

System safety, an integral component in software development, often poses a challenge to engineers designing computer-based systems. While the relaxed constraints on software design allow for increased power and flexibility, this flexibility introduces more possibilities for error. As a result, system engineers must identify the design constraints necessary to maintain safety and ensure that the system and software design enforces them. Safeware Engineering Corporation, of Seattle, Washington, provides the information, tools, and techniques to accomplish this task with its Specification Tools and Requirements Methodology (SpecTRM). NASA assisted in developing this engineering toolset by awarding the company several Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts with Ames Research Center and Langley Research Center. The technology benefits NASA through its applications for Space Station rendezvous and docking. SpecTRM aids system and software engineers in developing specifications for large, complex safety critical systems. The product enables engineers to find errors early in development so that they can be fixed with the lowest cost and impact on the system design. SpecTRM traces both the requirements and design rationale (including safety constraints) throughout the system design and documentation, allowing engineers to build required system properties into the design from the beginning, rather than emphasizing assessment at the end of the development process when changes are limited and costly.System safety, an integral component in software development, often poses a challenge to engineers designing computer-based systems. While the relaxed constraints on software design allow for increased power and flexibility, this flexibility introduces more possibilities for error. As a result, system engineers must identify the design constraints necessary to maintain safety and ensure that the system and software design enforces them. Safeware Engineering Corporation, of Seattle, Washington, provides the information, tools, and techniques to accomplish this task with its Specification Tools and Requirements Methodology (SpecTRM). NASA assisted in developing this engineering toolset by awarding the company several Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts with Ames Research Center and Langley Research Center. The technology benefits NASA through its applications for Space Station rendezvous and docking. SpecTRM aids system and software engineers in developing specifications for large, complex safety critical systems. The product enables engineers to find errors early in development so that they can be fixed with the lowest cost and impact on the system design. SpecTRM traces both the requirements and design rationale (including safety constraints) throughout the system design and documentation, allowing engineers to build required system properties into the design from the beginning, rather than emphasizing assessment at the end of the development process when changes are limited and costly.

Source record↗

Space Shuttle ET Friction Stir Weld Machines

NASA and Lockheed-Martin approached the FSW machine vendor community with a specification for longitudinal barrel production FSW weld machines and a shorter travel process development machine in June of 2000. This specification was based on three years of FSW process development on the Space Shuttle External Tank alloys, AL2 195-T8M4 and AL22 19-T87. The primary motivations for changing the ET longitudinal welds from the existing variable polarity Plasma Arc plasma weld process included: (1) Significantly reduced weld defect rates and related reduction in cycle time and uncertainty; (2) Many fewer process variables to control (5 vs. 17); (3) Fewer manufacturing steps; (4) Lower residual stresses and distortion; (5) Improved weld strengths, particularly at cryogenic temperatures; (6) Fewer hazards to production personnel. General Tool was the successful bidder. The equipment is at this writing installed and welding flight hardware. This paper is a means of sharing with the rest of the FSW community the unique features developed to assure NASA/L-M of successful production welds.

Thompson, Jack M.↗

Corrosion Prevention of Additively Manufactured Aluminum Packing Devices Developed for Process Intensification of CO 2 Capture by Aqueous Amines

Corrosion of additively manufactured (i.e., 3D printed) aluminum packing devices, developed to enhance heat and mass transfer in CO 2 absorption columns using amine-CO 2 scrubbing solutions, is investigated in this paper. The aluminum structures printed by selective laser melting with Al-10Si-0.3Mg feed powder are susceptible to corrosion in aqueous monoethanolamine, both fresh and used CO 2 -saturated solutions. The efficacy of corrosion-protective surface layers of aqueous polyether–ketone–ketone (PEKK) dip coating to provide amine corrosion resistance to the 3D printed aluminum structure is also evaluated. PEKK nanothick layers were coated on the corrugated surface of a 3D printed structure, identical to that of the intensified device, yielding 27 times higher corrosion resistance than the uncoated Al alloy surface. Finally, a systematic long-term electrochemical corrosion analysis revealed that a multilayer PEKK dip coating protocol enables protection of the 3D printed Al alloy surface in various CO 2 –monoethanolamine solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Micromechanical Machining Processes and their Application to Aerospace Structures, Devices and Systems

Micromechanical machining processes are those micro fabrication techniques which directly remove work piece material by either a physical cutting tool or an energy process. These processes are direct and therefore they can help reduce the cost and time for prototype development of micro mechanical components and systems. This is especially true for aerospace applications where size and weight are critical, and reliability and the operating environment are an integral part of the design and development process. The micromechanical machining processes are rapidly being recognized as a complementary set of tools to traditional lithographic processes (such as LIGA) for the fabrication of micromechanical components. Worldwide efforts in the U.S., Germany, and Japan are leading to results which sometimes rival lithography at a fraction of the time and cost. Efforts to develop processes and systems specific to aerospace applications are well underway.

Friedrich, Craig R.↗

Celion/Larc-160 graphite/polyimide composite processing techniques and properties

Weight savings in the range from 25 to 35 percent could be achieved on Space Shuttle orbiter components and the thermal protection system (TPS) by employing a suitable graphite/polyimide (Gr/Pi) composite material system as a substitute for the baseline aluminum structural material. Predicted weight savings are based on the superior strength and stiffness-to-density ratios of Gr/Pi composite material over metallic counterparts. Specific strength and stiffness properties of Celion/Larc-160 composite laminates are compared with aluminum and titanium alloys. Aspects of materials and processes development are discussed, taking into account Celion/Larc-160 composite cure cycle and tooling evolution, complex shaped component process development, mechanical and physical properties testing and results, and structural element design fabrication, testing, and results. Attention is given to a demonstration of materials and processing technology, and a Celion/Larc-160 materials and processes summary is presented.

Jones, J. S.↗

Progress of the NASA/USGS Lunar Regolith Simulant Project

Beginning in 2004 personnel at MSFC began serious efforts to develop a new generation of lunar simulants. The first two products were a replication of the previous JSC-1 simulant under a contract to Orbitec and a major workshop in 2005 on future simulant development. Beginning in 2006 the project refocused its efforts and approached simulant development in a new and more comprehensive manner, examining new approaches in simulant development and ways to more accurately compare simulants to actual lunar materials. This led to a multi-year effort with five major tasks running in parallel. The five tasks are Requirements, Lunar Analysis, Process Development, Feed Stocks, and Standards. Major progress has been made in all five areas. A substantial draft of a formal requirements document now exists and has been largely stable since 2007. It does evolve as specific details of the standards and Lunar Analysis efforts proceed. Lunar Analysis has turned out to be vastly more difficult than anticipated. After great effort to mine existing published and gray literature, the team has realized the necessity of making new measurements of the Apollo samples, an effort that is currently in progress. Process development is substantially ahead of expectations in 2006. It is now practical to synthesize glasses of appropriate composition and purity. It is also possible to make agglutinate particles in significant quantities. A series of minerals commonly found on the Moon has been synthesized. Separation of mineral constituents from starting rock material is also proceeding. Customized grinding and mixing processes have been developed and tested are now being documented. Identification and development of appropriate feedstocks has been both easier and more difficult than anticipated. The Stillwater Mining Company, operating in the Stillwater layered mafic intrusive complex of Montana, has been an amazing resource for the project, but finding adequate sources for some of the components remains a difficult problem. For example the ratio of clino- to ortho-pyroxenes in the Stillwater is not an exact match for lunar materials. One of the sources being examined as an alternative pyroxene source is the Bushveld Complex in South Africa. Standards have been a major success for the project. The Figure of Merit algorithms have been created, tested, and are being considered for an ISO standard. Agreement has been reached in the community about how to make many of the critical measurements. There remains much work to do: (1) driving down the cost of simulants remains a major obstacle; (2) documentation and cost data analysis have not kept up with progress; (3) educating users in the complexity of the lunar regolith and the use of simulants remains a major task. In summary the project has made enormous progress and is successfully placing simulant development and use on a rigorous, scientifically defensible, engineering basis.

Rickman, Doug↗

Aerospace Engineering Systems

Continuous improvement of aerospace product development processes is a driving requirement across much of the aerospace community. As up to 90% of the cost of an aerospace product is committed during the first 10% of the development cycle, there is a strong emphasis on capturing, creating, and communicating better information (both requirements and performance) early in the product development process. The community has responded by pursuing the development of computer-based systems designed to enhance the decision-making capabilities of product development individuals and teams. Recently, the historical foci on sharing the geometrical representation and on configuration management are being augmented: Physics-based analysis tools for filling the design space database; Distributed computational resources to reduce response time and cost; Web-based technologies to relieve machine-dependence; and Artificial intelligence technologies to accelerate processes and reduce process variability. Activities such as the Advanced Design Technologies Testbed (ADTT) project at NASA Ames Research Center study the strengths and weaknesses of the technologies supporting each of these trends, as well as the overall impact of the combination of these trends on a product development event. Lessons learned and recommendations for future activities will be reported.

VanDalsem, William R.↗

Aerospace Engineering Systems and the Advanced Design Technologies Testbed Experience

Continuous improvement of aerospace product development processes is a driving requirement across much of the aerospace community. As up to 90% of the cost of an aerospace product is committed during the first 10% of the development cycle, there is a strong emphasis on capturing, creating, and communicating better information (both requirements and performance) early in the product development process. The community has responded by pursuing the development of computer-based systems designed to enhance the decision-making capabilities of product development individuals and teams. Recently, the historical foci on sharing the geometrical representation and on configuration management are being augmented: 1) Physics-based analysis tools for filling the design space database; 2) Distributed computational resources to reduce response time and cost; 3) Web-based technologies to relieve machine-dependence; and 4) Artificial intelligence technologies to accelerate processes and reduce process variability. The Advanced Design Technologies Testbed (ADTT) activity at NASA Ames Research Center was initiated to study the strengths and weaknesses of the technologies supporting each of these trends, as well as the overall impact of the combination of these trends on a product development event. Lessons learned and recommendations for future activities are reported.

VanDalsem, William R.↗

Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

ozone↗