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DOE OSTI2025

On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).

Trivedi, Shubhendu [MIT] (ORCID:0000000312374301)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Targeting tissues via dynamic human systems modeling in generative design

Drug discovery is a complex, costly process with high failure rates. A successful drug should bind to a target, be deliverable to an intended site of activity, and promote a desired pharmacological effect without causing toxicity. Typically, these factors are evaluated in series over the course of a pipeline where the number of candidates is sequentially whittled down from a very large initial pool. One promise of AI-driven discovery is the opportunity to evaluate multiple facets of drug performance in parallel. However, despite ML-driven advancements, current models for pharmacological property prediction are exclusively trained to predict molecular properties, ignoring important, dynamic biodistribution and bioactivity effects. Here, we present our progress towards incorporating quantitative systems physiology models into an AI-enabled drug design and molecular generation pipeline. Within a genetic algorithm, we include human-relevant physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. These PBPK models leverage properties that are predicted by a fine-tuned molecular language model. Together, these models will aid in capturing the mapping between molecules and therapeutic outcomes that is necessary to accelerate the drug discovery process.

Fox, Zach↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-accelerated 3D carbon storage reservoir pressure forecasting based on data assimilation using surface displacement from InSAR

Fast forecasting of the reservoir pressure distribution during geologic carbon storage (GCS) by assimilating monitoring data is a challenging problem. Due to high drilling cost, GCS projects usually have spatially sparse measurements from few wells, leading to high uncertainties in reservoir pressure prediction. To address this challenge, we use low-cost Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) data as monitoring data to infer reservoir pressure build up. We develop a deep learning-accelerated workflow to assimilate surface displacement maps interpreted from InSAR and to forecast dynamic reservoir pressure. Employing an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates three-dimensional (3D) geologic properties and predicts reservoir pressure with quantified uncertainties. We use a synthetic commercial-scale GCS model with bimodally distributed permeability and porosity to demonstrate the efficacy of the workflow. A two-step CNN-PCA approach is employed to parameterize the bimodal fields. The computational efficiency of the workflow is boosted by two residual U-Net based surrogate models for surface displacement and reservoir pressure predictions, respectively. The workflow can complete data assimilation and reservoir pressure forecasting in half an hour on a personal computer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology from Planck CMB lensing and DESI DR1 quasar tomography

We present a measurement of the amplitude of matter fluctuations over the redshift range 0.8 ≤ z ≤ 3.5 from the cross correlation of over 1.2 million spectroscopic quasars selected by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) across 7,200 deg 2 (∼ 170 quasars/deg 2 ) and Planck PR4 (NPIPE) cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing maps. We perform a tomographic measurement in three bins centered at effective redshiftsz=1.44, 2.27 and 2.75, which have ample overlap with the CMB lensing kernel. From a joint fit using the angular clustering of all three redshift bins (auto and cross-spectra), and including an Q m prior from DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations to break the $Ω_{m}-σ_{8}$ degeneracy, we constrain the amplitude of matter fluctuations in the matter-dominated regime to be $σ_{8}=0.929^{+0.059}_{-0.074}$ and $S_{8}≡σ_{8}(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.922^{+0.059}_{-0.073}$. We provide a growth of structure measurement with the largest spectroscopic quasar sample to date at high redshift, which is ∼ 1.5σ higher than predictions from ΛCDM fits to measurements of the primary CMB from Planck PR4. The cross-correlation between PR4 lensing maps and DESI DR1 quasars is detected with a signal-to-noise ratio of 21.7 and the quasar auto-correlation at 27.2 for the joint analysis of all redshift bins. We combine our measurement with the CMB lensing auto-spectrum from the ground-based Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT DR6) and Planck PR4 to perform a sound-horizon-free measurement of the Hubble constant, yielding $H_{0}=69.1^{+2.2}_{-2.6} {\rm \ km\ s}^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ through its sensitivity to the matter-radiation equality scale.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗

DOE OSTI2022

RNAseq-based transcriptome assembly of Clostridium acetobutylicum for functional genome annotation and discovery

Accurate genome annotations are essential in modern biology and biotechnology, yet they are still largely based on genome sequencing and comparative analyses. We show that the Clostridium acetobutylicum genome annotation can be markedly improved by integrating bioinformatic predictions with RNA sequencing (RNAseq) data. Samples were acquired under butanol, butyrate, and unstressed treatments across various growth conditions. Analysis of an initial assembly revealed errors due to background signals and limitations of assembly algorithms. Hurdles for RNAseq transcriptome mapping include optimizing library complexity and sequencing depth, yet most studies report low sequencing depth and ignore the effect of ribosomal RNA abundance. An integrative analysis was developed to combine motif predictions, single-nucleotide resolution sequencing depth, and library complexity to resolve difficulties in assembly curation. This minimized false positive error and determined gene boundaries, in some cases, to the exact base-pair of prior studies. This will be the first strand-specific transcriptome assembly in a Clostridium organism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stacked CMB lensing and ISW signals around superstructures in the DESI Legacy Survey

The imprints of large-scale structures on the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) can be studied via the CMB lensing and Integrated Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) signals. In particular, the stacked ISW signal around supervoids has been claimed in several works to be anomalously high. In this study, we find cluster and void superstructures using four tomographic redshift bins with 0 < z < 0.8 from the DESI Legacy Survey and measure the stacked CMB lensing and ISW signals around them. To compare our measurements with ΛCDM model predictions, we construct a mock catalogue with matched galaxy number density and bias and apply the same photo-z uncertainty as the data. The consistency between the mock and the data is verified via the stacked galaxy density profiles around the superstructures and their quantity. The corresponding lensing convergence and ISW maps are then constructed and compared. The stacked lensing signal agrees with data well except at the highest redshift bin in density peaks, where the mock prediction is significantly higher, by approximately a factor of 1.3. The stacked ISW signal is generally consistent with the mock prediction. We do not obtain a significant signal from voids, A ISW = -0.10 ± 0.69, and the signal from clusters, A ISW = 1.52 ± 0.72, is at best weakly detected. However, these results are strongly inconsistent with previous claims of ISW signals at many times the level of the ΛCDM prediction. We discuss the comparison of our results with past work in this area and investigate possible explanations for this discrepancy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

The geometry of the Mach cone produced by a supersonic source is analyzed and mapped into initial conditions used in acoustic ray tracing. The resulting source model is combined with spherical geometry ray tracing methods to enable propagation simulations for infrasonic signals produced by bolides, space debris, rockets, aircraft, and other fast-than-sound sources out to typical infrasonic observation distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers. Idealized linear and parabolic trajectories typical of bolides and rockets, respectively, are used to demonstrate the calculation of regional infrasonic signals produced by such sources and characteristics of the radiated infrasonic waves are found to vary strongly with the geometry of the trajectory and atmospheric structure. Predicted regional infrasonic signals are compared with those observed from a November 2020 bolide that passed over Scandinavia using a combination of institutionally maintained infrasound stations and “citizen scientist” data from the Raspberry Shake data repository.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Dry Cooler Air-Side Performance on a sCO2 Power Cycle for a CSP Application

Uncertainty around the design and control of the supercritical CO2 power cycle must be reduced before this technology can be implemented for large-scale grid support. To better understand the day-to-day performance of an sCO2 cycle, off-design performance calculations must be included for all power block components, and performance assumptions must be removed. This study has expanded the modeled scope to include the air-side performance for the dry cooler and has incorporated discretized heat transfer calculations for both streams through the pre-cooler to better predict off-design performance. This study considered a recompression Brayton cycle in a concentrating solar power application. The cycle model utilized fixed sCO2 turbomachinery maps for the main compressor, recompressor, and expander operating to supply approximately 10 MW gross at the design point. Fixed vendor-supplied fan curves were used to calculate the air-side performance of the dry cooler. The primary heater was modeled considering both the sCO2 and heat transfer fluid streams. Off-design performance was predicted for an ambient temperature range of 0-55℃, a HTF temperature range of 705-735℃, and a HTF mass flow range of 50-105% of the design point value. To understand the importance of modeling the air-side performance, the cycle off-design performance was also calculated using a constant CO2 outlet temperature assumption and a constant approach temperature assumption for the dry cooler. Results show that using these assumptions can significantly alter the power output and cycle efficiency predictions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Saturn's Weather‐Driven Aurorae Modulate Oscillations in the Magnetic Field and Radio Emissions

Abstract The Cassini spacecraft revealed that Saturn's magnetic field displayed oscillations at a period originally thought to match the planetary rotation rate but later found not to. One of many proposed theories predicts that a polar twin‐cell neutral weather system drives this variation, producing observable differences in flows within Saturn's ionosphere. Here, using spectral observations of auroral emission lines taken by the Keck Observatory's Near Infrared Echelle Spectrograph (Keck‐NIRSPEC) in 2017, we derive ion line‐of‐sight velocity maps after grouping spectra into rotational quadrants matching phases of the planetary magnetic field. We measure 0.5 km s −1 wind systems in the ionosphere consistent with predicted neutral twin‐vortex flow patterns. These findings demonstrate that neutral winds in Saturn's polar regions cause the rotational period, as determined via the magnetic field, to exhibit differences and time variabilities relative to the planet's true period of rotation in a process never before seen within planetary atmospheres.

Chowdhury, M. N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coherence mapping to identify the intermediates of multi-channel dissociative ionization

Identifying the short-lived intermediates and reaction mechanisms of multi-channel radical cation fragmentation processes remains a current and important challenge to understanding and predicting mass spectra. We find that coherent oscillations in the femtosecond time-dependent yields of several product ions following ultrafast strong-field ionization represent spectroscopic signatures that elucidate their mechanism of formation and identify the intermediate(s) they originate from. Experiments on endo-dicyclopentadiene show that vibrational frequencies from various intermediates are mapped onto their resulting products. Aided by ab initio methods, we identify the vibrational modes of both the cleaved and intact molecular ion intermediates. These results confirm stepwise and concerted fragmentation pathways of the dicyclopentadiene ion. This study highlights the power of tracking the femtosecond dynamics of all product ions simultaneously and sheds further light onto one of the fundamental reaction mechanisms in mass spectrometry, the retro-Diels Alder reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

DOE OSTI2026

Large Eddy Simulations of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Satellite‐Sensed Sea Ice Maps

Surface heterogeneity in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) causes multiscale secondary atmospheric circulations that are challenging to model or observe. The absence or inadequate representation of these circulations in ocean‐atmosphere exchange schemes in climate models is partially responsible for the underestimation of Arctic sea ice loss. Observationally, such circulations obfuscate the interpretation of polar atmospheric chemistry measurements, among others. To address this open challenge, large‐eddy simulations are conducted over real‐world satellite‐sensed sea ice maps with an ice‐sea temperature contrast, as well as over idealizations of these maps that alter the ice pattern but conserve its fraction, showing that the ice fraction of a surface is not sufficient to predict the surface heat flux. In a second suite of simulations, three other heterogeneity metrics (representing the surface fragmentation, patch edge tortuosity, and patch size variability) are introduced to complement the ice fraction in describing the surface. Simulations varying these parameters suggest that they also significantly impact surface‐air interactions. A roughness contrast is then added to the surface temperature contrast, indicating that the contribution of roughness changes to the resulting atmospheric circulations is less pronounced than that of thermal heterogeneity. Based on these results, we illustrate, using a multi‐linear regression on these map features, that MIZ surface parameterizations in Earth Systems Models can be improved if they account for these various characteristics of the sea‐ice patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Allosteric prediction via convolutional neural networks and protein structural and dynamical features

Allostery is the phenomenon whereby a binding event or covalent modification at one site in a protein modulates function at a distal site, thus changing a protein’s functional state. As such, it is a ubiquitous aspect of protein functional regulation. Computationally predicting allosteric states is important as part of the broader challenge of functional annotation, but it also has practical implications for drug development, as targeting an allosteric site often affords greater specificity compared with targeting an orthosteric site. This study introduces a machine learning approach to predict the allosteric functional state using the small G-protein KRas as the model system, due to its implication in many types of cancer and being well studied as a result with many x-ray crystallographic structures of KRas available with different mutations and ligands bound. Using structural and dynamical features that can be cast as images, namely interatomic distances, contact maps, covariance, and mutual information, supervised learning was performed using convolutional neural networks. Two pretrained convolutional neural network architectures, GoogLeNet and ResNet18, were fine-tuned to classify KRas into active or inactive states based on these features. Across training regimes, atomic contact maps emerged as the most effective structural feature, whereas linearized mutual information outperformed covariance in capturing dynamical correlations relevant to allostery. Models achieved significant validation accuracy, with atomic contact maps yielding up to 90% accuracy. In conclusion, the findings suggest that integrating global structural rearrangements and correlated motion patterns with deep learning can reliably predict protein allosteric states, offering a promising framework for understanding allosteric regulation and developing targeted therapeutics.

Rajeshwar T., Rajitha [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revealing the three-dimensional arrangement of polar topology in nanoparticles

In the early 2000s, low dimensional ferroelectric systems were predicted to have topologically nontrivial polar structures, such as vortices or skyrmions, depending on mechanical or electrical boundary conditions. A few variants of these structures have been experimentally observed in thin film model systems, where they are engineered by balancing electrostatic charge and elastic distortion energies. However, the measurement and classification of topological textures for general ferroelectric nanostructures have remained elusive, as it requires mapping the local polarization at the atomic scale in three dimensions. Here we unveil topological polar structures in ferroelectric BaTiO3 nanoparticles via atomic electron tomography, which enables us to reconstruct the full three-dimensional arrangement of cation atoms at an individual atom level. Our three-dimensional polarization maps reveal clear topological orderings, along with evidence of size-dependent topological transitions from a single vortex structure to multiple vortices, consistent with theoretical predictions. The discovery of the predicted topological polar ordering in nanoscale ferroelectrics, independent of epitaxial strain, widens the research perspective and offers potential for practical applications utilizing contact-free switchable toroidal moments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of stereochemistry in combustion processes

Stereochemical effects significantly influence chemical processes, yet it is not well understood if they are a leading source of uncertainty in combustion modeling. Stereochemistry influences a combustion model (i) at the earliest stage of its construction when mapping the reaction network, (ii) in the computation of individual thermochemical and rate parameters, and (iii) in the prediction of combustion observables. The present work reviews the importance of enumerating stereochemical species and reactions at each of these steps. Further, it analyzes the separate influence of several types of stereochemistry, including geometric, optical, and fleeting transition state diastereomers. Three reaction networks serve to examine which stages of low-temperature oxidation are most affected by stereochemistry, including the first and second oxidation of n-butane, the third oxidation of n-pentane, and the early stages of pyrolysis of 1- and 2-pentene. The 149 reactions in the n-butane mechanism are expanded to 183 reactions when accounting for diastereomerism. Each of these 183 reactions is parameterized with ab initio kinetics computations to determine that, for the n-butane mechanism, the median factor of diastereomeric deviation is 3.5 at 360 K for rate constants and as high as 1.6 for mechanism reactivity, in terms of ignition delay times, as opposed to a mechanism without stereochemical expansion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding structure-processing relationships in metal additive manufacturing via featurization of microstructural images

Understanding and predicting accurate property-structure-processing relationships for additively manufactured components is important for both forward and inverse design of robust, reliable parts and assemblies. While direct mapping of process parameters to properties is sometimes plausible, it is often rendered difficult due to poor microstructural control. Exploring the direct relationship between processing conditions and microstructural features can thus provide significant physical insights and aid the overall design process. Here, in this study, we develop an automated high-throughput framework to simulate an uncertainty-aware additive manufacturing (AM) process, characterize microstructural images, and extract meaningful features/descriptors. A kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) based model of the AM process is used to simulate microstructural evolution for a diverse set of experimentally relevant processing conditions. We perform a parametric study to explore the relationship between microstructural features and processing conditions. Our results indicate that a many-to-one mapping can exist between processing conditions and typical descriptors; therefore, multiple descriptors are thus necessary to unambiguously represent microstructural images. Our work provides crucial quantitative and qualitative in-formation that would aid in the selection of features for microstructural images. Featurized microstructures could then be utilized to build data-driven models for predictive control of microstructures and thereby properties of additively manufactured components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗