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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-Coherent Fluctuations Limiting the Pedestal Growth on Alcator C-Mod: Experiment and Modeling

Performance predictions for future fusion devices rely on an accurate model of the pedestal structure. The leading candidate for predictive pedestal structure is EPED, and it is imperative to test the underlying hypotheses to further gain confidence for ITER projections. Here, we present experimental work testing one of the EPED hypotheses, namely the existence of a soft limit set by microinstabilities such as the kinetic ballooning mode (KBM). This work extends recent work on Alcator C-Mod [Diallo, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., , (2014), 115001], to include detailed measurements of the edge fluctuations and comparisons of edge simulation codes and experimental observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Interface in Additively Manufactured Interpenetrating Composites

Additively Manufactured Interpenetrating Composites (AMIPCs) are a relatively new metal-metal chain composite in development for use in high energy absorption systems. In this system, reinforcing phase of additively manufactured continuous lattice configurations 316L austenitic stainless-steel is in melt infiltrated with a matrix phase of A356 aluminum-silicon casting alloy. Measurements and observations of this material system have shown that weakly bonded or open/porous interface between the reinforcement and matrix phases exhibits dramatically different mechanical properties of AMIPCs, which is not currently well understood. In this work, Finite Element Models (FEM) are used to model the effects of interfaces between the composite phases. Mechanical tensile tests measurements of various composite volume fractions and varying degrees of casting infiltration are also examined and used to show consistency with the FEM results. The outcome provides insight into material design criteria and performance predictions for new hybrid material systems with exceptional damage tolerance.

Allen, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodel ensemble predictions of precipitation using bayesian neural networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodel Ensemble Predictions of Precipitation using Bayesian Neural Networks

Multimodel ensembling improves predictions and considers model uncertainties. In this study, we present a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) ensemble approach for large-scale precipitation predictions based on a set of climate models. BNN infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases through the calibration against observations. This ensemble scheme of BNN sufficiently leverages individual model skill for accurate predictions as well as provides interpretability about which models contribute more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times to inform model development. Additionally, BNN accurately quantifies epistemic uncertainty to avoid overconfident projections. We demonstrate BNN’s superior prediction performance to three state-of-the-art ensemble approaches and discuss its interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Fan, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2023

PRINTED, PLANAR MICROWAVE CONNECTOR WITH MULTIPLE SIGNAL LINES

Microwave connectors with a planar geometry have been demonstrated using additive manufacturing techniques. This planar form factor is expected to enable connectors to be integrated directly with other components onto a printed circuit board. The connectors were developed with multiple signal lines that will increase the density of signal connections to PCBs, eliminating the physical constraints of single-signal COTS microwave connectors. This work developed electromagnetic models (using Ansys HFSS) of these planar connectors to predict performance and optimize connector design. Materials and printing processes were developed to fabricate the connectors based on high-temperature PEEK thermoplastics. The multiple signal connectors were designed to operate over the 1-6GHz band and are built upon the single signal printed planar geometry connector introduced in a previous paper [1].

Additive Manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural Network Enhanced RKPM for Electrochemical-Mechanical Coupled Damage Modeling of Energy Storage Materials

Energy storage materials undergo significant charge cycling, which makes understanding their reliability and durability fundamental in predicting performance and service life. Strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking, largely along material interfaces and grain boundaries. For Li-ion batteries, for example, lithium moving between electrodes during charging and discharging process causes expansion and contraction of grains, and the strongly anisotropic and nonlinearly [Li]-dependent grain material properties can cause grains to expand into and contract away from each other, leading to chemo-mechanical cracking. In the first part of this work, a RKPM based computational framework for solving the coupled solid-phase lithium conservation with Fickian diffusion and the lithium concentration dependent anisotropic mechanical problem subjected to a highly nonlinear Butler-Volmer boundary condition is introduced. The choice of RKPM completeness conditions for lithium concentration and mechanical deformation fields, and the variational consistency condition for the domain integration of the coupled problem is first determined. In the second part of this work, a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN-RKPM) [1] is leveraged to accurately capture damage and crack propagation throughout the material, by learning the location, orientation, and sharpness of discontinuity while allowing for a coarser nodal distribution than that is necessary for capturing sharp solution transitions using traditional mesh-based methods. NN-RKPM is used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the coupled chemical equations and material microstructure.

damage modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural Network-Enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Image-Based Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Energy Storage Materials

Energy storage materials undergo significant stresses during charge/discharge cycling, which makes understanding their reliability and durability fundamental in predicting performance and service life. Strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking, largely along material interfaces and grain boundaries. With microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), image-based modeling techniques are used to represent the complex material microstructures that dictate the coupled physics of these systems. Traditional electrochemical-mechanical models rely on mesh-based finite element methods, which can lead to difficulties in capturing crack propagation due to mesh dependency. Additionally, commonly used damage models, such as the continuous damage model and the cohesive zone model, often have steep tradeoffs between discontinuous field accuracy and computational expense. In this work, a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN-RKPM) [1] is leveraged to accurately capture damage and crack propagation throughout the material by learning the location, orientation, and sharpness of discontinuity while allowing for a coarser nodal distribution than that necessary for capturing sharp solution transitions using traditional mesh-based methods. NN-RKPM is used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the coupled chemical equations and material microstructure. Reference: [1] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, pp 4422-4454, https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040, 2022.

damage modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling for a Digital Twin-Based Remote Operation System Framework

New reactor designs and technologies are being developed to grow and advance the nuclear industry. Microreactors are one of the many new concepts for advancing the industry. Microreactors are very small reactors generally designed to have an operating power of 20 MWth or less. They are ideal for many applications in which it would not be feasible to have a large-scale reactor, such as powering remote communities, military bases, and mining sites. Many of these applications currently rely on diesel generators for power, and replacing those generators with the carbon-free energy of a microreactor is a major driving factor for microreactor development. However, most of the use cases for microreactors are in isolated locations where construction and labor costs are much higher. Microreactors will need to be comparable to other energy production methods for their deployment to be successful. Remotely operating the microreactor has a great potential to benefit the economics and make it more cost competitive. With remote operations, the operation facility location could be strategically chosen based on factors such as construction costs, workforce size, etc. The benefits of remote operations could be leveraged even more if the remote operation system is semi-autonomous. If the remote operation system is semi-autonomous, more microreactors could be operated and monitored from one remote operation facility. Additionally, with the system handling some tasks for the human operator, it could reduce the number of operating staff necessary for the microreactor. Digital twins can be used to introduce a level of automation to the remote operation system. Digital twins are capable of component monitoring, system operation and control, and predictive performance [1]. All of those features are important for a successful semi-autonomous remote operation system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fuel Performance Evaluation of THOR-C Experiments

The Temperature Heatsink Overpower Response Commissioning (THOR-C) and THOR-Metal (THOR-M) experiments will be performed as part of an ongoing project for testing sodium fast reactor fuels with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The THOR-C experiments consist of fresh metallic fuel pins and have been analyzed using the ABAQUS, Ansys codes and the BISON fuel performance code. THOR-M-Loss of Flow-1 (THOR-M-LOF-1) is designed to test an EBR-II irradiated fuel pin under LOF conditions. Simulation of the THOR-MLOF-1 experiment required first simulating the base irradiation of the fuel pin in EBR-II. MFUEL module of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 [1] is a physics-based metallic fuel performance model applicable to the normal operation, transient scenarios and fuel failure modeling including scenarios with bulk fuel melting. The model has been validated using EBR-II normal operation, separate effect transient tests as well as TREAT M-Series transient tests [2]. In this study, MFUEL models has been utilized together with a new capsule heat transfer model developed in this project. The new heat transfer model was necessary due to (1) significant amount of heat losses that required 2D heat transfer, (2) the presence of a titanium heat sink, rejecting a significant amount of heat, and (3) stagnant coolant conditions, which are inconsistent with SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) heat transfer model. Updates to SAS4A/SASSYS-1 and MFUEL has been described below, followed by a preliminary validation effort using the results from THOR-C-2 fresh fuel capsule experiment. A previous study for THOR-C-2 analysis using BISON code is also utilized in this study to model this test [3]. [1] D. O’Grady, A. J. Brunett, L. Ibarra, A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. S. Sumner, R. Thomas, T. H. Fanning, “The SAS4A/SASSYS-2 Version 5.7 Safety Analysis Code System,” Argonne National Laboratory,ANL/NSE-SAS/5.7, (2023). [2] A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. Fanning, D. O’Grady, “Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1,” Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/NSE-23/11, (2023). [3] M. Mihelish, A. Zabriskie, K. Paaren, P. Medvedev, C. Jensen, “Fuel Performance Predictions for the TREAT THOR-C Experiments,” Idaho National Laboratory, INL/RPT-23-73397, Revision 0, (2023)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydride Reprecipitation in Prototypical 17x17 PWR Fuel Rods after Simulated Vacuum Drying Conditions

Light water reactor (LWR) fuel rod cladding picks up hydrogen as it oxidizes in reactor. Once the hydrogen concentration exceeds the solubility limit, zirconium hydride platelets precipitate, generally in the circumferential direction. In preparation for dry storage, elevated temperatures can dissolve some of the circumferential hydrides, which during cooling can then reprecipitate in a direction perpendicular to the hoop stress (radially). From 2019 to 2024, ORNL published a series of reports that included metallographic observations of cladding after a thermal transient to 400°C followed by slow cooling. The simulated dry storage process was performed on three full-length 17x17 PWR fuel rods at their as-discharged rod internal pressure. There were two important observations from the metallographic examinations of these heat-treated rods: (1) the propensity for hydride reorientation is strongly influenced by nearby as-discharged precipitated hydrides, (2) the radial hydrides observed near the cladding inner diameter were often associated with cracks in the pellet. Subsequent modeling using the BISON fuel performance code that considered the effects of pellet cracks and pellet-cladding bonding observed in high-burnup fuel support the conclusion that pellet cracks enhance the local hoop stress in the cladding creating preferential sites for hydride reorientation, and that the influence of the pellet cannot be ignored in accurate fuel rod performance predictions.

Montgomery, Rose [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286038936)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) represents a significant innovation in nuclear technology, offering several operational and safety benefits over traditional solid-fuel reactors. However, MSRs face uncertainties in waste management due to their flexible designs and variable waste compositions. To address these challenges, we propose a visualization platform that illustrates solutions and performance predictions for various waste management strategies, enhancing user experience and improving strategy and communication. Immersive visualizations are widely used in the nuclear industry for training, simulation, and safety enhancement. Our project aims to develop a visualization platform incorporating virtual reality (VR) technologies to illustrate MSR characteristics immediately following reactor shutdown. This immersive simulation will allow users to interact, explore, and understand different waste management strategies. The platform will display MSR reactor characterizations, including nuclide decay, salt solidification, and corrosion, which are crucial for assessing and selecting backend management strategies. Using the Meta Quest 3 VR headset with Unity software, our platform will provide real-scale visualizations, enabling users to experience and evaluate designs and plans as if they were physically present. This user-friendly interface will make complex data accessible and understandable for non-domain experts, aiding in decision-making for MSR waste management. Our proposed visualization workflow can be applied to other nuclear reactors, assisting in the design and planning of waste management strategies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Opportunities for HVAC + Phase Change Material Thermal Energy Storage in Buildings

Phase-change material (PCM) thermal-energy storage (TES) integrated with HVAC and domestic hot water (DHW) can shift a large share of building thermal loads. By flattening and shifting loads, PCM TES reduces peak electricity use, eases stress on local and grid infrastructure, and lowers costs. It can also defer costly upgrades to service panels, distribution, and transmission. Higher energy density relative to chilled or hot water storage makes PCM TES practical for small, space limited, and retrofit projects, while packaged HVAC-integrated systems expand cost-effective load shifting to commercial buildings that previously lacked options. Despite this promise, deployment faces barriers. This paper presents challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned from lab and field integrations of PCM TES with packaged HVAC systems. Key challenges include misalignment between default heat pump controls tuned for direct-to-load operation and TES charge/discharge objectives, PCM properties that diverge from manufacturer claims and evolve with cycling, and high integration and deployment costs with off-the-shelf products. These studies underscore the need for factory built, integrated systems that arrive as prepackaged modules with proven controls, reducing design and installation effort and delivering predictable performance across projects. The paper outlines steps to enable viable and scalable PCM TES HVAC and DHW systems, including 1) validated methods that can be used to characterize PCM properties and TES system performance, 2) supervisory controls that optimize charge/discharge scheduling, and 3) factory integrated packaging that eliminates bespoke field engineering.

Dutton, Spencer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Moving from Fundamental Knowledge of Kinetics and Mechanisms on Surfaces to Prediction of Catalyst Performance in Reactors

Catalysis is defined by kinetics, but after over a century of catalyst development our kinetic and mechanistic knowledge governing real-world catalysis is still severely lacking. This Perspective considers how we can use the precise knowledge available from both theoretical and fundamental experimental techniques to understand and even predict catalytic performance under operational conditions. Here, we describe advances that link fundamental and "real-world" measurements, crucial elements required to successfully recreate a reaction network, and avenues which appear to offer viable routes to success.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development Of Thermodynamic and Kinetic Simulation Tools and Testing Procedures for Enhanced Durability of Concrete Containing Industrial By-Products

This project developed screening tools that enable evaluation of alternative cementitious binders that create concretes to significantly reduce energy and emissions while remaining cost competitive on both initial and long-term costs. The team began with the viewpoint that acceptance of new cementitious binder products has a substantially greater chance of successful implementation when capital investment is not excessive and the end product has customers that have experience and resources to use this. As such, a binder system that is based on portland cement with blended using industrial by-products (alternative cementitious materials) has the potential for dramatic and meaningful impact. The team has focused on developing implementable solutions in specifications and current practice. This however requires three main factors: 1) ability to screen byproducts and alternative materials for success, 2) ability to ‘treat’ materials chemically to enhance kinetics, and 3) ability to provide predictions of performance of both binders and concrete from first principles. The project developed/refined a state of the art and scientifically based screening test for SCM called the pozzolanic reactivity test. The team developed kinetic models to simulate these materials as well as experimental approaches to alter selected reactions. Simulation tools were developed that enable the performance of concrete to be predicted based on the chemistry and reactivity of the cement and alternative SCM. Specifically, this project: • enhanced the kinetic reactivity models for use in multi-scale computational programs that use thermodynamics to predict reaction products. 2 • developed scaling models to extend thermodynamic modeling to link these models with pore structure. This enables strength, transport property, and coupled transport prediction. • developed tools to predict performance of cementitious materials using the pozzolanic reactivity test and chemical composition. The predicted properties are consistent with AASHTO R101 and the CEB-FIP model code and can be measured using associated test procedures. • demonstrated mechanical and fracture based modeling tools that thermodynamic predictions and inputs to predict concrete service life. These results have been used to demonstrate the value of enabling specifications to include ASTM C 595 cement as well ASTM C150 cement. In addition, these products are being used to expedite the evaluation of alternative SCM to aide in determining which materials have potential value and what ‘compositions’ of blended cements merit further investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance and transport in the ARC tokamak

The ARC TM tokamak, a high-field (𝐵 𝑇 = 11.4 T) fusion power plant, under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is studied using a suite of integrated modelling tools to predict its fusion power generation (𝑃𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠), transport and confinement properties. Analysis is based off an ARC operational point scoped first with zero-dimensional (0-D) plasma operational contour (POPCON) modelling to produce 1.13 GW of fusion power. A suite of integrated modelling tools (TRANSP, ASTRA and TORAX) were applied to predict the performance and kinetic profiles of the ARC design point, yielding a range of predicted performance spanning from ∼900 to 1300 MW in rough quantitative agreement with POPCON predictions. The sensitivity of these results to uncertain modelling inputs was probed using scans of pedestal boundary conditions around EPED-predicted values (total pressure and temperature ratios), tungsten concentration and seperatrix density around their nominal assumptions. Pedestal pressure and pedestal top (𝑇 𝑖 /𝑇 𝑒 ) play a large role in 1.5-dimensional performance predictions, able to modify the predicted 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 by a factor of 2 within reasonable assumptions. High-fidelity core nonlinear gyrokinetic profile predictions, performed using CGYRO (Candy et al. 2016 J. Comput. Phys., vol. 324, pp. 73–93) coupled with the PORTALS (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al. 2024 Nucl. Fusion, vol. 64, 076034; Phys. Plasmas, vol. 31, 2024, 062501) framework, yield substantially lower performance (𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 =677 MW) compared with 0-D and medium-fidelity modelling for nominal assumptions, showing that there is non-negligible uncertainty between models and that future work on SPARC may help resolve discrepancies. Lower overall performance results from significantly reduced volume-averaged densities and temperatures, along with reduced levels of density and temperature peaking. Turbulence and transport are largely dominated by ion temperature gradient across the profile, confirmed by both linear stability and the response of the nonlinear fluxes to changes in gradients, with some impact of kinetic ballooning modes in the deep core. This work represents one of the most complete scoping of potential fusion power plant conditions performed to date. The extensive integrated modelling provides confidence in ARC performance approaching 1 GW, while nonlinear gyrokinetic modelling results in open questions into the physics of density and temperature peaking in fusion-power-plant-relevant operational space. A discussion of results and the role that the SPARC tokamak (Creely et al. 2020 J. Plasma Phys., vol. 86, 865860502) will play in informing ARC design, performance and operation is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance and power modeling and prediction using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods

Energy-efficient scientific applications require insight into how high performance computing system features impact the applications' power and performance. This insight can result from the development of performance and power models. Here, in this article, we use the modeling and prediction tool MuMMI (Multiple Metrics Modeling Infrastructure) and 10 machine learning methods to model and predict performance and power consumption and compare their prediction error rates. We use an algorithm-based fault-tolerant linear algebra code and a multilevel checkpointing fault-tolerant heat distribution code to conduct our modeling and prediction study on the Cray XC40 Theta and IBM BG/Q Mira at Argonne National Laboratory and the Intel Haswell cluster Shepard at Sandia National Laboratories. Our experimental results show that the prediction error rates in performance and power using MuMMI are less than 10% for most cases. By utilizing the models for runtime, node power, CPU power, and memory power, we identify the most significant performance counters for potential application optimizations, and we predict theoretical outcomes of the optimizations. Based on two collected datasets, we analyze and compare the prediction accuracy in performance and power consumption using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗