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NASA NTRS2019

Nasa Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Updated Requirements Architecture

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.

Newman, Lauri K.↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Updated Requirements Architecture

Newman, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A performance index approach to aerodynamic design with the use of analysis codes only

A method is described for designing an aerodynamic configuration for a specified performance vector, based on results from several similar, but not identical, trial configurations, each defined by a geometry parameter vector. The theory shows the method effective provided that: (1) the results for the trial configuration provide sufficient variation so that a linear combination of them approximates the specified performance; and (2) the difference between the performance vectors (including the specifed performance) are sufficiently small that the linearity assumption of sensitivity analysis applies to the differences. A computed example describes the design of a high supersonic Mach number missile wing body configuration based on results from a set of four trial configurations.

Barger, Raymond L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

SSME fuelside preburner two-dimensional analysis

The flow field within the fuelside preburner of the Space Shuttle Main Engine is calculated using a reacting flow code (REACT2D). Inlet and modeling parameters involved in the numerical calculation are systematically varied to establish the sensitivity of the calculated exit temperature profile. It is found that differences in the inlet equivalence ratio have a large effect on the turbine inlet temperature profile. A variety of preburner inlet modeling changes such as inlet turbulence level, modeling the gases as burned, unburned, premixed, or unmixed, are shown to have a smaller effect on the calculated turbine inlet temperature profile. Also, the form of finite differencing used is shown to have an effect on the temperature profile.

Vanoverbeke, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Orbit determination sensitivity analysis for th Europa Clipper Mission tour

This paper will assess the sensitivity of OD delivery and knowledge performance for the current Europa Mission trajectory through parametric variation of a baseline tour navigation strategy.2 Variations of several parameters are run, one at a time, to determine the impact on spacecraft ephemeris uncertainties at OD knowledge, delivery, and encounter reconstruction times. There are two basic categories of sensitivity runs considered: variations of tracking data type and amount, and variations to dynamic parameters. The results of these parameter and data variations are compared against the values necessary to achieve accurate instrument pointing and observation planning.

Young, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1976

A model of the human observer in failure detection tasks

A model for the human observer in failure detection tasks is proposed which consists of two stages: a linear estimator and a decision mechanism. The estimator is a Kalman filter, and the decision mechanism, which is based on Wald's sequential analysis, leads to a decision function which is the integration of the filter residuals. The final result is a simple detection system which depends on only three parameters, and the sensitivity of the model to these parameters is analyzed. The results of an experiment designed to test the validity of the model are reported. The question of open and closed decision intervals as well as the generalization of the model to more complicated cases is discussed.

Gai, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Effects of winglet on transonic flutter characteristics of a cantilevered twin-engine-transport wing model

A transonic model and a low-speed model were flutter tested in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel at Mach numbers up to 0.90. Transonic flutter boundaries were measured for 10 different model configurations, which included variations in wing fuel, nacelle pylon stiffness, and wingtip configuration. The winglet effects were evaluated by testing the transonic model, having a specific wing fuel and nacelle pylon stiffness, with each of three wingtips, a nonimal tip, a winglet, and a nominal tip ballasted to simulate the winglet mass. The addition of the winglet substantially reduced the flutter speed of the wing at transonic Mach numbers. The winglet effect was configuration-dependent and was primarily due to winglet aerodynamics rather than mass. Flutter analyses using modified strip-theory aerodynamics (experimentally weighted) correlated reasonably well with test results. The four transonic flutter mechanisms predicted by analysis were obtained experimentally. The analysis satisfactorily predicted the mass-density-ratio effects on subsonic flutter obtained using the low-speed model. Additional analyses were made to determine the flutter sensitivity to several parameters at transonic speeds.

Ruhlin, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Optimal placement of tuning masses for vibration reduction in helicopter rotor blades

Described are methods for reducing vibration in helicopter rotor blades by determining optimum sizes and locations of tuning masses through formal mathematical optimization techniques. An optimization procedure is developed which employs the tuning masses and corresponding locations as design variables which are systematically changed to achieve low values of shear without a large mass penalty. The finite-element structural analysis of the blade and the optimization formulation require development of discretized expressions for two performance parameters: modal shaping parameter and modal shear amplitude. Matrix expressions for both quantities and their sensitivity derivatives are developed. Three optimization strategies are developed and tested. The first is based on minimizing the modal shaping parameter which indirectly reduces the modal shear amplitudes corresponding to each harmonic of airload. The second strategy reduces these amplitudes directly, and the third strategy reduces the shear as a function of time during a revolution of the blade. The first strategy works well for reducing the shear for one mode responding to a single harmonic of the airload, but has been found in some cases to be ineffective for more than one mode. The second and third strategies give similar results and show excellent reduction of the shear with a low mass penalty.

Pritchard, Jocelyn I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Statistical circuit design for yield improvement in CMOS circuits

This paper addresses the statistical design of CMOS integrated circuits for improved parametric yield. The work uses the Monte Carlo technique of circuit simulation to obtain an unbiased estimation of the yield. A simple graphical analysis tool, the yield factor histogram, is presented. The yield factor histograms are generated by a new computer program called SPICENTER. Using the yield factor histograms, the most sensitive circuit parameters are noted, and their nominal values are changed to improve the yield. Two basic CMOS example circuits, one analog and one digital, are chosen and their designs are 'centered' to illustrate the use of the yield factor histograms for statistical circuit design.

Kamath, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Cosmic microwave background anisotropies in cold dark matter models with cosmological constant: The intermediate versus large angular scales

We obtain predictions for cosmic microwave background anisotropies at angular scales near 1 deg in the context of cold dark matter models with a nonzero cosmological constant, normalized to the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) detection. The results are compared to those computed in the matter-dominated models. We show that the coherence length of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy is almost insensitive to cosmological parameters, and the rms amplitude of the anisotropy increases moderately with decreasing total matter density, while being most sensitive to the baryon abundance. We apply these results in the statistical analysis of the published data from the UCSB South Pole (SP) experiment (Gaier et al. 1992; Schuster et al. 1993). We reject most of the Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-Lambda models at the 95% confidence level when both SP scans are simulated together (although the combined data set renders less stringent limits than the Gaier et al. data alone). However, the Schuster et al. data considered alone as well as the results of some other recent experiments (MAX, MSAM, Saskatoon), suggest that typical temperature fluctuations on degree scales may be larger than is indicated by the Gaier et al. scan. If so, CDM-Lambda models may indeed provide, from a point of view of CMB anisotropies, an acceptable alternative to flat CDM models.

Stompor, Radoslaw↗

NASA NTRS2016

Substructure Versus Property-Level Dispersed Modes Calculation

This paper calculates the effect of perturbed finite element mass and stiffness values on the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the finite element model. The structure is perturbed in two ways: at the "subelement" level and at the material property level. In the subelement eigenvalue uncertainty analysis the mass and stiffness of each subelement is perturbed by a factor before being assembled into the global matrices. In the property-level eigenvalue uncertainty analysis all material density and stiffness parameters of the structure are perturbed modified prior to the eigenvalue analysis. The eigenvalue and eigenvector dispersions of each analysis (subelement and property-level) are also calculated using an analytical sensitivity approximation. Two structural models are used to compare these methods: a cantilevered beam model, and a model of the Space Launch System. For each structural model it is shown how well the analytical sensitivity modes approximate the exact modes when the uncertainties are applied at the subelement level and at the property level.

Stewart, Eric C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adjoint-based Sensitivities of Flutter Predictions based on the Linearized Frequency-domain Approach

Flutter is a critical factor in designing and certifying aircraft. The linearized frequency-domain method offers a lower cost alternative to time-marching computational fluid dynamics for high-fidelity flutter analysis. In this work, adjoint-based sensitivities are added to a flutter analysis based on the linearized frequency-domain method to efficiently compute derivatives of flutter cost functions with respect to design variables or uncertain parameters. The derivation of the adjoint equations, which involve complications such as derivatives of a nonlinear generalized eigenvalue problem with complex-valued inputs and derivatives of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations, is provided. The implemented adjoint terms and derivatives are verified before demonstrating the approach for derivatives of flutter dynamic pressure with respect to Mach number for the AGARD 445.6 wing.

Aeroelasticity↗

NASA NTRS1983

Experimental modal analysis

Experimental modal analysis is extremely important with regard to verification of analytical models, identification of vibration and acoustic problems, and structural modification and sensitivity analysis. With the expanding access of the testing environment to computational power, the complexity of existing approaches, as well as the development of new approaches, to the estimation of modal parameters has grown tremendously. Currently, the state of the art in experimental modal analysis involves methods that can be grouped in four categories: forced normal mode excitation method, frequency response function method, damped complex exponential function method, and mathematical input-output model methods. The theoretical basis of each of these general approaches, with appropriate references, is reviewed briefly.

Allemang, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A high temperature thermal diffusivity determination procedure for solids and liquids

A new method for measuring the thermal diffusivity of materials at high temperatures is presented. The method is applicable to solids on Earth, and to liquids in the reduced gravity environment of space. It is especially suited to levitated liquid metals at elevated temperatures where thermal diffusivity data is not available. The method is applied in two parts, such that lumped analysis is valid in the first part, and Fourier's law of conduction is valid in the second. In both parts, the spherical specimen is assumed to have been heated to a desired temperature and cooled. An inverse conduction problem is then formulated and solved using Laplace transformation techniques. Using this solution, sample sizes, and experimentally obtained surface temperature history, the thermal diffusivity is determined by minimizing a function that satisifies the heat balance at the surface. Minimization is performed using a modified quasilinearization algorithm. Accuracy is very sensitive to error in the temperature data and increases with better curve fits to the temperature data. An error analysis is also performed, and the effect of errors in the various parameters on the evaluated thermal diffusivity is determined. An experimental study for solids on Earth is suggested, before development for implementation in space.

Bayazitoglu, Yildiz↗

NASA NTRS2018

High Efficiency Megawatt Motor Conceptual Design

The High Efficiency Megawatt Motor (HEMM) is being designed to meet the needs of Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP). The key objective of this work is to establish a motor technology which simultaneously attains high specific power (>16kW/kg ratio to electromagnetic weight) and high efficiency (>98%) by judicious application of high temperature superconducting wire and integrated thermal management. Another important feature is to achieve the performance goals with an eye to aircraft integration constraints. An electromagnetic analysis was performed which shows that the proposed HEMM design meets the performance objectives if key current capability and mechanical constraints are achieved. Sensitivity of motor power and performance to those parameters is illustrated. The HEMM technology could be applied to a range of aircraft types that require megawatt level electrical power.

Superconducting↗

NASA NTRS2018

High Efficiency Megawatt Motor Conceptual Design

Jansen, Ralph H.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Simulation-Based Analysis and Prediction of Thrust Vector Servoelastic Coupling

A method of analysis and prediction of servoelastic coupling in launch vehicles is presented, surveying the discovery and subsequent resolution of a predicted servoelastic resonance phenomenon affecting the NASA Space Launch System launch vehicle at specific flight conditions. A physics-based linearized multibody mechanization of the governing equations is combined with first principles analysis to demonstrate that antisymmetric bending of the solid rocket motors leads to a reduction of equivalent viscous modal damping through coupling with the thrust vector control actuators. The sensitivity to parameters and the effects of the resonance phenomenon on flight control performance and stability are confirmed through extensive simulation verification in the time and frequency domain. A novel enhancement in model fidelity that accounts for Coriolis effects of fluid flow on bending within the solid rocket motor case and nozzle is shown to add sufficient damping to reduce the risk of adverse control-structure interaction.

Jeb S Orr↗

NASA NTRS2008

Tolerance and UQ4SIM: Nimble Uncertainty Documentation and Analysis Software

Ultimately, scientific numerical models need quantified output uncertainties so that modeling can evolve to better match reality. Documenting model input uncertainties and variabilities is a necessary first step toward that goal. Without known input parameter uncertainties, model sensitivities are all one can determine, and without code verification, output uncertainties are simply not reliable. The basic premise of uncertainty markup is to craft a tolerance and tagging mini-language that offers a natural, unobtrusive presentation and does not depend on parsing each type of input file format. Each file is marked up with tolerances and optionally, associated tags that serve to label the parameters and their uncertainties. The evolution of such a language, often called a Domain Specific Language or DSL, is given in [1], but in final form it parallels tolerances specified on an engineering drawing, e.g., 1 +/- 0.5, 5 +/- 10%, 2 +/- 10 where % signifies percent and o signifies order of magnitude. Tags, necessary for error propagation, can be added by placing a quotation-mark-delimited tag after the tolerance, e.g., 0.7 +/- 20% 'T_effective'. In addition, tolerances might have different underlying distributions, e.g., Uniform, Normal, or Triangular, or the tolerances may merely be intervals due to lack of knowledge (uncertainty). Finally, to address pragmatic considerations such as older models that require specific number-field formats, C-style format specifiers can be appended to the tolerance like so, 1.35 +/- 10U_3.2f. As an example of use, consider figure 1, where a chemical reaction input file is has been marked up to include tolerances and tags per table 1. Not only does the technique provide a natural method of specifying tolerances, but it also servers as in situ documentation of model uncertainties. This tolerance language comes with a utility to strip the tolerances (and tags), to provide a path to the nominal model parameter file. And, as shown in [1], having the ability to quickly mark and identify model parameter uncertainties facilitates error propagation, which in turn yield output uncertainties.

Kleb, Bil↗