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NASA NTRS2010

The Invigoration of Deep Convective Clouds Over the Atlantic: Aerosol Effect, Meteorology or Retrieval Artifact?

Associations between cloud properties and aerosol loading are frequently observed in products derived from satellite measurements. These observed trends between clouds and aerosol optical depth suggest aerosol modification of cloud dynamics, yet there are uncertainties involved in satellite retrievals that have the potential to lead to incorrect conclusions. Two of the most challenging problems are addressed here: the potential for retrieved aerosol optical depth to be cloud-contaminated, and as a result, artificially correlated with cloud parameters; and the potential for correlations between aerosol and cloud parameters to be erroneously considered to be causal. Here these issues are tackled directly by studying the effects of the aerosol on convective clouds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean using satellite remote sensing, a chemical transport model, and a reanalysis of meteorological fields. Results show that there is a robust positive correlation between cloud fraction or cloud top height and the aerosol optical depth, regardless of whether a stringent filtering of aerosol measurements in the vicinity of clouds is applied, or not. These same positive correlations emerge when replacing the observed aerosol field with that derived from a chemical transport model. Model-reanalysis data is used to address the causality question by providing meteorological context for the satellite observations. A correlation exercise between the full suite of meteorological fields derived from model reanalysis and satellite-derived cloud fields shows that observed cloud top height and cloud fraction correlate best with model pressure updraft velocity and relative humidity. Observed aerosol optical depth does correlate with meteorological parameters but usually different parameters from those that correlate with observed cloud fields. The result is a near-orthogonal influence of aerosol and meteorological fields on cloud top height and cloud fraction. The results strengthen the case that the aerosol does play a role in invigorating convective clouds.

Koren, Ilan↗

NASA NTRS1995

Microlensing by the galactic bar

We compute the optical depth and duration distribution of microlensing events towrd Baade's window in a model composed of a Galactic disk and a bar. The bar model is a self-consistent dynamical model built out of individual orbits that has been populated to be consistent with the COBE maps of the Galaxy and kinematic observations of the Galactic bulge. We find that most of the lenses are in the bulge with a line-of-sight distance 6.25 kpc (adopting R(sub 0) = 8 kpc). The microlensing optical depth of a 2 x 10(exp 10) solar mass bar plus a truncated disk is (2.2 +/- 0.45) x 10(exp -6), consistent with the large optical depth (3.2 +/- 1.2) x 10(exp -6) found by Udalski et al. (1994). This model optical depth is enhanced over the predictions of axisymmetric models by Kiraga & Paczynski (1994) by slightly more than a factor of 2, since the bar is elongated along the line of sight. The large Einstein radius and small transverse velocity dispersion also predict a longer event duration in the self-consistent bar model than in the Kiraga-Paczynski model. The event rate and duration distribution also depend on the lower mass cutoff of the lens mass function. With a 0.1 solar mass cutoff, five to seven events (depending on the contribution of disk lenses) with a logarithmic mean duration of 20 days are expected for the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) according to our model, while Udalski et al. (1994) observed nine events with durations from 8 to 62 days. On the other hand, if most of the lenses are brown dwarfs, our model predicts too many short-duration events. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test finds only 7% probability for the model with 0.01 solar mass cutoff to be consistent with current data.

Zhao, Hongsheng↗

NASA NTRS1995

Pinatubo Global- to Micro-Scale Evolution: A Unified Picture from Space, Air, and Ground Measurements

We combine space, air, and ground measurements to develop a composite picture of the post-Pinatubo aerosol, and assess the consistency and uncertainties of various measurement and retrieval techniques. impactor and optical counter measurements, as well as retrievals from optical depth spectra, paint a generally consistent picture of the evolution of particle effective radii, R(sub eff). In the first month after the eruption, although particle numbers increased by orders of magnitude, R(sub eff) was similar to the preeruption value of 4.2 micrometers, because both small (r less than 0.25 micrometers) and large (r greater than 0.6 micrometers) particles increased in number, Over the next 3-6 months, R(sub eff) increased rapidly to about 0.5 micrometers. In general, R(sub eff) continued to increase for about a year after the eruption. The peak wavelength of optical depth spectra increased from initial values of less than 0.42 micrometers to values between 0.78 and 1 micrometer. This coupled evolution in particle size distribution and optical depth spectra helps explain the relationship between the global maps of 0.5 and 1.0-micrometer optical depth derived from the AVHRR and SAGE satellite measurements. It also sets a context for evaluating remaining uncertainties in each of these satellite data products. We also make consensus recommendations for particle composition, shape, and temperature- and wavelength-dependent refractive index, and show how the latter effect on backscatter spectra can influence particle sizes retrieved from multiwavelength lidar measurements.

Russell, Philip B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Participation in TOMS missions

In the past year we have been investigating a new algorithm for the derivation of column sulfur dioxide, column ozone, and aerosol optical depth from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) High Density TOMS (HDT) archived albedos. Simulations of the measured albedos were made using a radiative transfer model, and a technique developed to separate the effects of the aerosol optical depth from the absorption optical depth. The retrieval adopted obtained values from the three parameters with high accuracy. This retrieval was then applied to the TOMS data.

Hudson, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Answering the Call for Model-Relevant Observations of Aerosols and Clouds

Redemann, J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Use of A-Train Aerosol Observations to Constrain Direct Aerosol Radiative Effects (DARE) Comparisons with Aerocom Models and Uncertainty Assessments

We describe a technique for combining multiple A-Train aerosol data sets, namely MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) and CALIOP aerosol backscatter retrievals (hereafter referred to as MOC retrievals) to estimate full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately to calculate the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative effects (DARE). We present MOC results using almost two years of data collected in 2007 and 2008, and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the MODIS Collection 6 AOD data derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the MOC retrievals towards higher latitudes. The MOC aerosol retrievals agree better with AERONET in terms of the single scattering albedo (ssa) at 441 nm than ssa calculated from OMI and MODIS data alone, indicating that CALIOP aerosol backscatter data contains information on aerosol absorption. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution of the MOC retrievals and MOC-based calculations of seasonal clear-sky DARE to values derived from four models that participated in the Phase II AeroCom model intercomparison initiative. Overall, the MOC-based calculations of clear-sky DARE at TOA over land are smaller (less negative) than previous model or observational estimates due to the inclusion of more absorbing aerosol retrievals over brighter surfaces, not previously available for observationally-based estimates of DARE. MOC-based DARE estimates at the surface over land and total (land and ocean) DARE estimates at TOA are in between previous model and observational results. Comparisons of seasonal aerosol property to AeroCom Phase II results show generally good agreement best agreement with forcing results at TOA is found with GMI-MerraV3. We discuss sampling issues that affect the comparisons and the major challenges in extending our clear-sky DARE results to all-sky conditions. We present estimates of clear-sky and all-sky DARE and show uncertainties that stem from the assumptions in the spatial extrapolation and accuracy of aerosol and cloud properties, in the diurnal evolution of these properties, and in the radiative transfer calculations.

aerosol↗

NASA NTRS2018

Satellite Observations of Cloud-Related Variations in Aerosol Properties

This paper presents an overview of our efforts to characterize and better understandcloud-related changes in aerosol properties. These efforts primarily involved the statistical analysisof global or regional datasets of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) andCloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol and cloud observations. Theresults show that in oceanic regions, more than half of all aerosol measurements by passive satelliteinstruments come from near-cloud areas, where clouds and cloud-related processes may significantlymodify aerosol optical depth and particle size. Aerosol optical depth is also shown to increasesystematically with regional cloud amount throughout the Earth. In contrast, it is shown thateffective particle size can either increase or decrease with increasing cloud cover. In bimodal aerosolpopulations, the sign of changes depends on whether coarse mode or small mode aerosols are mostaffected by clouds. The results also indicate that over large parts of Earth, undetected cloud particlesare not the dominant reason for the satellite-observed changes with cloud amount, and that 3Dradiative processes contribute about 30% of the observed near-cloud changes. The findings underlinethe need for improving our ability to accurately measure aerosols near clouds.

aerosol; cloud; satellite↗

NASA NTRS2019

TPSAS-NF1676L-34010-DND

We invert global black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and desert dust (DD) aerosol emissions from POLDER/PARASOL spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) using the GEOSChem inverse modelling framework. Our inverse modeling framework uses standard a priori emissions to provide a posteriori emissions that are constrained by POLDER/PARASOL AODs and AAODs. Our satellite-derived global aerosol emission database indicates an increase of BC and OC, while a decrease of DD with respect to the a priori emission inventories used in standard GEOS-Chem runs. The model simulations using a posteriori emissions (i.e. retrieved emissions) provide new estimate of global aerosol extinction and absorption constrained by observations. Additionally, the a posteriori model simulation of AOD, AAOD, single scattering albedo, Angstrom exponent, and absorption Angstrom exponent show better agreement with independent AERONET, MODIS, and OMI measurements than the a priori simulation. Thus, this study suggests that using satellite-constrained global aerosol emissions in aerosol transport models can improve the accuracy of simulated global aerosol properties and have potential to better understanding global aerosol effects on climate and human health.

Cheng Chen↗

NASA NTRS2021

Retrieving the global distribution of the threshold of wind erosion from satellite data and implementing it into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model (GFDL AM4.0/LM4.0)

Dust emission is initiated when surface wind velocities exceed the threshold of wind erosion. Many dust models used constant threshold values globally. Here we use satellite products to characterize the frequency of dust events and land surface properties. By matching this frequency derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products with surface winds, we are able to retrieve a climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold (V(threshold)) over dry and sparsely vegetated surfaces. This monthly two-dimensional threshold velocity is then implemented into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled land–atmosphere model (AM4.0/LM4.0). It is found that the climatology of dust optical depth (DOD) and total aerosol optical depth, surface PM10 dust concentrations, and the seasonal cycle of DOD are better captured over the “dust belt” (i.e., northern Africa and the Middle East) by simulations with the new wind erosion threshold than those using the default globally constant threshold. The most significant improvement is the frequency distribution of dust events, which is generally ignored in model evaluation. By using monthly rather than annual mean V(threshold), all comparisons with observations are further improved. The monthly global threshold of wind erosion can be retrieved under different spatial resolutions to match the resolution of dust models and thus can help improve the simulations of dust climatology and seasonal cycles as well as dust forecasting.

Bing Pu↗

NASA NTRS2019

Constraining global aerosol emissions using POLDER/PARASOL satellite remote sensing observations

We invert global black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and desert dust (DD) aerosol emissions from POLDER/PARASOL spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) using the GEOS-Chem inverse modeling framework. Our inverse modeling framework uses standard a priori emissions to provide a posteriori emissions that are constrained by POLDER/PARASOL AODs and AAODs. The following global emission values were retrieved for the three aerosol components: 18.4 Tg/yr for BC, 109.9 Tg/yr for OC and 731.6 Tg/yr for DD for the year 2010. These values show a difference of +166.7 %, +184.0 % and −42.4 %, respectively, with respect to the a priori values of emission inventories used in “standard” GEOS-Chem runs. The model simulations using a posteriori emissions (i.e., retrieved emissions) provide values of 0.119 for global mean AOD and 0.0071 for AAOD at 550 nm, which are +13.3 % and +82.1 %, respectively, higher than the AOD and AAOD obtained using the a priori values of emissions. Additionally, the a posteriori model simulation of AOD, AAOD, single scattering albedo, Ångström exponent and absorption Ångström exponent show better agreement with independent AERONET, MODIS and OMI measurements than the a priori simulation. Thus, this study suggests that using satellite-constrained global aerosol emissions in aerosol transport models can improve the accuracy of simulated global aerosol properties.

chemical transport model (CTM) simulations↗

NASA NTRS1997

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the range -50 to -190 W sq m per unit inadvisable optical depth. The magnitudes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger forcing in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce the actual major radiative forcing events that contribute to any global-average climate effect. Detailed comparisons of calculated and measured forcings for specific events are used for more refined tests of closure.

Russell, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aerosol-Induced Radiative Flux Changes Off the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast: Comparison of Values Calculated from Sunphotometer and In Situ Data with Those Measured by Airborne Pyranometer

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including flux changes) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the responsible aerosol particles. Here we use TARFOX-determined aerosol and surface properties to compute shortwave radiative flux changes for a variety of aerosol situations, with midvisible optical depths ranging from 0.06 to 0.55. We calculate flux changes by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to investigate the sensitivity of results to computational approach. We then compare computed flux changes to those determined from aircraft measurements. Calculations using several approaches yield downward and upward flux changes that agree with measurements. The agreement demonstrates closure (i.e. consistency) among the TARFOX-derived aerosol properties, modeling techniques, and radiative flux measurements. Agreement between calculated and measured downward flux changes is best when the aerosols are modeled as moderately absorbing (midvisible single-scattering albedos between about 0.89 and 0.93), in accord with independent measurements of the TARPOX aerosol. The calculated values for instantaneous daytime upwelling flux changes are in the range +14 to +48 W/sq m for midvisible optical depths between 0.2 and 0.55. These values are about 30 to 100 times the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger flux changes in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce major aerosol radiative forcing events and contribute to any global-average climate effect.

Russell, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Mars Atmosphere Water Ice Aerosol Climatology by MRO/CRISM: 5 Mars Years of Observations

We use near-infrared spectra returned from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to provide retrievals of the column-integrated optical depth of water ice aerosols for more than 5 Martian years between Mars Year (MY) 28 at Ls = 112° (27 September 2006) and MY 33 at Ls = 213° (30 August 2016). We have developed a radiative transfer model for this purpose that retrieves aerosol opacity from the water ice aerosol feature near 3.3 μm using CRISM hyperspectral observations for the first time. The resulting retrievals well depict the main features in the water ice aerosol climatology with repeatable patterns every Martian year. The aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is observed between 10°S and 30°N, with peak optical depth around Ls = 90°. Apart from the global dust storm during MY 28, modest interannual variability in the water ice aerosol optical depth is observed in the ACB. The north polar hood is observed at latitudes poleward of 45°N throughout northern spring and summer seasons and reappears in northern winter. The south polar hood is observed in early to mid-southern autumn, reaching latitudes around 60°S, and re-emerging during southern winter between 45°S and 60°S. A lack of water ice aerosols is repeatedly seen in the southern hemisphere throughout southern spring and summer. High optical depth in the ACB is observed over the volcanoes of Olympus Mons, Elysium, and the Tharsis bulge, as well as over Hellas Basin.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2020

Changes in the Surface Broadband Shortwave Radiation Budget During the 2017 Eclipse

While solar eclipses are known to greatly diminish the visible radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, less is known about the magnitude of the impact. We explore both the observed and modeled levels of change in surface radiation during the eclipse of 2017. We deployed a pyranometer and Pandora spectrometer instrument to Casper, Wyoming, and Columbia, Missouri, to measure surface broadband shortwave (SW) flux and atmospheric properties during the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse event. We performed detailed radiative transfer simulations to understand the role of clouds in spectral and broadband solar radiation transfer in the Earth’s atmosphere for the normal (non-eclipse) spectrum and red-shift solar spectra for eclipse conditions. The theoretical calculations showed that the non-eclipse-to-eclipse surface flux ratio depends strongly on the obscuration of the solar disk and slightly on the cloud optical depth. These findings allowed us to estimate what the surface broadband SW flux would be for hypothetical non-eclipse conditions from observations during the eclipse and further to quantify the impact of the eclipse on the surface broadband SW radiation budget. We found that the eclipse caused local reductions of time-averaged surface flux of about 379 W m−2 (50 %) and 329Wm-2 (46 %) during the ∼3 h course of the eclipse at the Casper and Columbia sites, respectively. We estimated that the Moon’s shadow caused a reduction of approximately 7 %–8% in global average surface broadband SW radiation. The eclipse has a smaller impact on the absolute value of surface flux reduction for cloudy conditions than a clear atmosphere; the impact decreases with the increase in cloud optical depth. However, the relative time-averaged reduction of local surface SW flux during a solar eclipse is approximately 45 %, and it is not sensitive to cloud optical depth. The reduction of global average SW flux relative to climatology is proportional to the non-eclipse and eclipse flux difference in the penumbra area and depends on cloud optical depth in the Moon’s shadow and geolocation due to the change in solar zenith angle. We also discuss the influence of cloud inhomogeneity on the observed SW flux. Our results not only quantify the reduction of the surface solar radiation budget, but also advance the understanding of broadband SW radiative transfer under solar eclipse conditions.

surface radiation↗

NASA NTRS1998

Aerosol analysis techniques and results from micro pulse lidar

The effect of clouds and aerosol on the atmospheric energy balance is a key global change problem. Full knowledge of aerosol distributions is difficult to obtain by passive sensing alone. Aerosol and cloud retrievals in several important areas can be significantly improved with active remote sensing by lidar. Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL) is an aerosol and cloud profilometer that provides a detailed picture of the vertical structure of boundary layer and elevated dust or smoke plume aerosols. MPL is a compact, fully eyesafe, ground-based, zenith pointing instrument capable of full-time, long-term unattended operation at 523 nm. In October of 1993, MPL began taking full-time measurements for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) site and has since expanded to ARM sites in the Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). Other MPL's are moving out to some of the 60 world-wide Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites which are already equipped with automatic sun-sky scanning spectral radiometers providing total column optical depth measurements. Twelve additional MPL's have been purchased by NASA to add to the aerosol and cloud database of the EOS ground validation network. The original MPL vertical resolution was 300 meters but the newer versions have a vertical resolution of 30 meters. These expanding data sets offer a significant new resource for atmospheric radiation analysis. Under the direction of Jim Spinhirne, the MPL analysis team at NASA/GSFC has developed instrument correction and backscatter analysis techniques for ARM to detect cloud boundaries and analyze vertical aerosol structures. A summary of MPL applications is found in Hlavka (1997). With the aid of independent total column optical depth instruments such as the Multifilter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (MFRSR) at the ARM sites or sun photometers at the AERONET sites, the MPL data can be calibrated, and time-resolved vertical profiles of aerosol optical depth as well as aerosol extinction can be calculated. The techniques used to calibrate the lidar, calculate the aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratio, and produce profiles of aerosol extinction and aerosol optical depths, will be described. Results using these techniques will be presented for case studies at the ARM site in the Tropical West Pacific and later in the Southern Great Plains.

Hlavka, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

On the size and composition of particles in polar stratospheric clouds

Attenuation measurements of the solar radiation between 1.5 and 15 micron wavelengths were performed with the airborne (DC-8) JPL MARK 4 interferometer during the 1987 Antarctic Expedition. The opacities not only provide information about the abundance of stratospheric gases but also about the optical depths of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) at wavelengths of negligible gas absorption (windows). The optical depth of PSCs can be determined for each window once the background attenuation, due to air-molecules and aerosol has been filtered out with a simple extinction law. The ratio of optical thicknesses at different wavelengths reveals information about particle size and particle composition. Among the almost 700 measured spectra only a few PSC cases exist. PSC events are identified by sudden reductions in the spectrally integrated intensity value and are also verified with backscattering data from an upward directed lidar instrument, that was mounted on the DC-8. For the selected case on September 21st at 14.40 GMT, lidar data indicate an optically thin cloud at 18k and later an additional optically thick cloud at 15 km altitude. All results still suffer from: (1) often arbitrary definitions of a clear case, that often already may have contained PSC particles and (2) noise problems that restrict the calculations of optical depths to values larger than 0.001. Once these problems are handled, this instrument may become a valuable tool towards a better understanding of the role PSCs play in the Antarctic stratosphere.

Kinne, Stefan↗

NASA NTRS1982

Diffusion instability in a bimodal disc

A simplified model of radial diffusion in a planetary disk with a bimodal size distribution is presented. The large particle component excites the small particles' dispersion velocity via gravitational scattering. The resulting small particle viscous stress goes through a maximum near optical depth = sq root 3. Such a stress profile promotes the development of high and low optical depth zones. The resulting ringlet appearance is due primarily to the distribution of small particles, which produce most of the optical depth but may constitute only a minor portion of system mass.

Ward, W. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗