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At least 397 records · Page 22

Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems

Abstract Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well‐observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state‐of‐the‐art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Missing components in ΛCDM from DESI Y1 baryonic acoustic oscillation measurements: Insights from redshift remapping

We explore transformations of the Friedman-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric and cosmological parameters that align with observational data while aiming to gain insights into potential extensions of standard cosmological models. We modified the FLRW metric by introducing a scaling factor, e 2Θ(a) –the cosmological scaling function (CSF), which alters the standard relationship between cosmological redshift and the cosmic scale factor without affecting angular measurements or cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. Using data from DESI Year 1, Pantheon+ supernovae, and the Planck CMB temperature power spectrum, we constrained both the CSF and cosmological parameters through a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Our results indicate that the CSF model fits observational data with a lower Hubble constant (although it is compatible with the value given by Planck 2018 within 1σ) and is predominantly dark matter dominated. Additionally, the CSF model produces temperature and lensing power spectra similar to those predicted by the standard model, though with lower values in the CSF model at large scales. We also checked that when fitting a CSF model without dark energy to the data, we obtain a more negative conformal function. This suggests that the CSF model may offer hints about missing elements and opens up a new avenue for exploring physical interpretations of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the Progenitor Stars of Observed Type IIP Supernovae

Abstract Type IIP supernovae (SNe IIP) are thought to originate from the explosion of massive stars >10M ⊙ . Their luminosity is primarily powered by the explosion energy and the radioactive decay energy of 56 Co, with the photosphere location regulated by hydrogen recombination. However, the physical connections between SNe IIP and their progenitor stars remain unclear. This paper presents a comprehensive study of SNe IIP and their progenitor stars by using the one-dimensional stellar evolution code,MESA. Our model grids consider the effects of stellar metallicity, mass, and rotation in the evolution of massive stars, as well as the explosion energy and 56 Ni production in modeling supernovae. To elucidate the observed SNe IIP and their origins, we compare their light curves (LCs) with our models. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of stellar parameters on LCs by considering stellar mass, metallicity, rotation, explosion energy, and 56 Ni production. We find that more massive stars exhibit longer plateaus due to increased photon diffusion time caused by massive ejecta. Higher metallicity leads to increased opacity and mass loss of progenitor stars. Rapid rotation affects internal stellar structures, enhancing convective mixing and mass loss, potentially affecting the plateau’s brightness and duration. Higher explosion energy results in brighter but shorter plateaus due to faster-moving ejecta. 56 Ni mass affects late-time luminosity and plateau duration, with larger masses leading to slower declines.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Large Eddy Simulations of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Satellite‐Sensed Sea Ice Maps

Surface heterogeneity in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) causes multiscale secondary atmospheric circulations that are challenging to model or observe. The absence or inadequate representation of these circulations in ocean‐atmosphere exchange schemes in climate models is partially responsible for the underestimation of Arctic sea ice loss. Observationally, such circulations obfuscate the interpretation of polar atmospheric chemistry measurements, among others. To address this open challenge, large‐eddy simulations are conducted over real‐world satellite‐sensed sea ice maps with an ice‐sea temperature contrast, as well as over idealizations of these maps that alter the ice pattern but conserve its fraction, showing that the ice fraction of a surface is not sufficient to predict the surface heat flux. In a second suite of simulations, three other heterogeneity metrics (representing the surface fragmentation, patch edge tortuosity, and patch size variability) are introduced to complement the ice fraction in describing the surface. Simulations varying these parameters suggest that they also significantly impact surface‐air interactions. A roughness contrast is then added to the surface temperature contrast, indicating that the contribution of roughness changes to the resulting atmospheric circulations is less pronounced than that of thermal heterogeneity. Based on these results, we illustrate, using a multi‐linear regression on these map features, that MIZ surface parameterizations in Earth Systems Models can be improved if they account for these various characteristics of the sea‐ice patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for heavy resonances decaying to a pair of Lorentz-boosted Higgs bosons in final states with leptons and a bottom quark pair at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search for new heavy resonances decaying to a pair of Higgs bosons (HH) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented. Data were collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 . Resonances with a mass between 0.8 and 4.5 TeV are considered using events in which one Higgs boson decays into a bottom quark pair and the other into final states with either one or two charged leptons. Specifically, the single-lepton decay channel HH → b b ¯ WW * → b b ¯ ℓ v q q ¯ ' and the dilepton decay channels HH → b b ¯ WW * → b b ¯ ℓ v ℓ v and HH → b b ¯ ττ → b b ¯ ℓ vv ℓ vv are examined, where ℓ in the final state corresponds to an electron or muon. The signal is extracted using a two-dimensional maximum likelihood fit of the H → b b ¯ jet mass and HH invariant mass distributions. No significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed in data. Model-independent exclusion limits are placed on the product of the cross section and branching fraction for narrow spin-0 and spin-2 massive bosons decaying to HH. The results are also interpreted in the context of radion and bulk graviton production in models with a warped extra spatial dimension. The results provide the most stringent limits to date for X → HH signatures with final-state leptons and at some masses provide the most sensitive limits of all X → HH searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for direct production of winos and higgsinos in events with two same-charge leptons or three leptons in $pp$ collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry targeting the direct production of winos and higgsinos is conducted in final states with either two leptons (e or μ) with the same electric charge, or three leptons. The analysis uses 139 fb -1 of pp collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess over the Standard Model expectation is observed. Simplified and complete models with and without R-parity conservation are considered. In topologies with intermediate states including either Wh or WZ pairs, wino masses up to 525 GeV and 250 GeV are excluded, respectively, for a bino of vanishing mass. Higgsino masses smaller than 440 GeV are excluded in a natural R-parity-violating model with bilinear terms. Upper limits on the production cross section of generic events beyond the Standard Model as low as 40 ab are obtained in signal regions optimised for these models and also for an R-parity-violating scenario with baryon-number-violating higgsino decays into top quarks and jets. The analysis significantly improves sensitivity to supersymmetric models and other processes beyond the Standard Model that may contribute to the considered final states.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

New inflationary probes of axion dark matter

Abstract If a light axion is present during inflation and becomes part of dark matter afterwards, its quantum fluctuations contribute to dark matter isocurvature. In this article, we introduce a whole new suite of cosmological observables for axion isocurvature, which could help test the presence of axions, as well as its coupling to the inflaton and other heavy spectator fields during inflation such as the radial mode of the Peccei-Quinn field. They include correlated clock signals in the curvature and isocurvature spectra, and mixed cosmological-collider non-Gaussianities involving both curvature and isocurvature fluctuations with shapes and running unconstrained by the current data analyses. Taking into account of the existing strong constraints on axion isocurvature fluctuations from the CMB, these novel signals could still be sizable and potentially observable. In some models, the signals, if observed, could even help us significantly narrow down the range of the inflationary Hubble scale, a crucial parameter difficult to be determined in general, independent of the tensor mode.

Physics↗

A detailed study of interpretability of deep neural network based top taggers

Abstract Recent developments in the methods of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) allow researchers to explore the inner workings of deep neural networks (DNNs), revealing crucial information about input–output relationships and realizing how data connects with machine learning models. In this paper we explore interpretability of DNN models designed to identify jets coming from top quark decay in high energy proton–proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. We review a subset of existing top tagger models and explore different quantitative methods to identify which features play the most important roles in identifying the top jets. We also investigate how and why feature importance varies across different XAI metrics, how correlations among features impact their explainability, and how latent space representations encode information as well as correlate with physically meaningful quantities. Our studies uncover some major pitfalls of existing XAI methods and illustrate how they can be overcome to obtain consistent and meaningful interpretation of these models. We additionally illustrate the activity of hidden layers as neural activation pattern diagrams and demonstrate how they can be used to understand how DNNs relay information across the layers and how this understanding can help to make such models significantly simpler by allowing effective model reoptimization and hyperparameter tuning. These studies not only facilitate a methodological approach to interpreting models but also unveil new insights about what these models learn. Incorporating these observations into augmented model design, we propose the particle flow interaction network model and demonstrate how interpretability-inspired model augmentation can improve top tagging performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this work, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

essential biodiversity variables↗

Electron energy distributions in the extended gas nebulae associated with high-z AGN: Maxwell–Boltzmann versus κ distributions

ABSTRACT Emission line observations together with photoionization models provide important information about the ionization mechanisms, densities, temperatures, and metallicities in active galactic nuclei (AGN)-ionized gas. Photoionization models usually assume Maxwell–Boltzmann (M–B) electron energy distributions (EED), but it has been suggested that using κ distributions may be more appropriate and could potentially solve the discrepancies in temperatures and abundances found in HII regions and planetary nebulae. We consider the impact of the presence of κ distributions in photoionized nebulae associated with AGN and study how this might affect spectral modelling and abundance analyses for such regions. Using the photoionization code MAPPINGS 1e, we compute models adopting M–B and κ distributions of electron energies and compare the behaviour of emission line ratios for different values of κ, gas metallicity, density, ionization parameter, and SED slope. We find that the choice of EED can have a large impact on some UV and optical emission lines emitted by photoionized nebulae associated with AGN, and that the impact of adopting a κ distribution is strongly dependent on gas metallicity and ionization parameter. We compile a sample of line ratios for 143 type 2 AGN and compare our models against the observed line ratios. We find that for 98 objects, κ distributions provide a better fit to the observed line ratios than M–B distributions. In addition, we find that adopting κ-distributed electron energies results in significant changes in the inferred gas metallicity and ionization parameter in a significant fraction of objects.

Morais, S. G. (ORCID:0000000200927813)↗

Less Common Topological Phenomena in Bulk Materials

"Prediction and subsequent discovery of topological insulators is considered to be one of the main results in condensed matter physics in the last decades. Not surprisingly, it has received major attention of both researchers and funding agencies. This attention is well-deserved; yet, one cannot but note that nearly all this research revolves about essentially the same concept: electronic excitations with linear dispersion, covering, of course, such diverse and intriguing phenomena as topological insulator, bulk Dirac states (or Weyl, if not spin degenerate), Mayorana fermions. In this project, we will address, mainly, other topological phenomena, such as topologically nontrivial magnetic patterns (as, for instance, topological Hall and related phenomena). Specifically, we propose three interrelated trusts: (1) Time-reversal symmetry breaking nonrelativistic antiferromagnets, called altermagnets. These are materials that break Kramers degeneracy of electronic bands, despite having zero net magnetization by symmetry and being fully collinear, and not necessarily non-centrosymmetric. The corresponding band structure is very similar to the band structure in non-centrosymmetric spin-orbital materials, but materials that we propose to study are distinctly different, first and foremost in the sense that despite sharing many aspects of their electronic properties with the latter, they break the time-reversal symmetry without either spin-orbit coupling or lack of inversion symmetry. (2) Topologically nontrivial magnetic spirals. The PI has been engaged with the experimental group of Dr. Ghimire at GMU investigating Dirac materials with helical magnetism, based on stacked magnetic Kagome layers, with a generic formula of RMn6Sn6. In particular, Y Mn6Sn6 demonstrates a component of the Hall effect that is naturally interpreted in terms of a topological spin texture, as well as linear magnetoresistance. Our calculation identify Dirac states that are robust with respect to the spiral formation, and let us derive an advance mean-field model explaining the observed phase diagram. This model predicted four distinct phases, with very distinct properties, which have now been seen in neutron experiments. The same compound is known to demonstrate topological Hall effect in a particular magnetic phase, and only at elevated temperature. Based on our understanding of the phase diagram, we have worked out a phenomenological theory of a chiral (skyrmionic) response to an external magnetic field, similar to the nematic response to external strain in Fe-based superconductors, which is possible in a centrosymmetric lattice and without interplanar Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction. This phenomenological theory agrees quantitatively with the experiment. It is in our plans to research other similar materials for this effect. (3) Search for 3D analogues of Fe-based superconductors. We want to investigate materials that can be viewed as 3D analogues of FeSe. Specifically, we want materials that are good metals and host antiferromagnetism, which can be suppressed by pressure and generate an s-wave superconductivity, as in Fe-based superconductors. We have in mind some candidates already. This work will proceed in close collaboration with the experimental group of Prof. Nirmal Ghimire in the same department, whose expertise lies in sample making, magnetometry and transport measurements of materials with complex magnetic structures."

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The Coupled Influence of Thermal Physiology and Biotic Interactions on the Distribution and Density of Ant Species along an Elevational Gradient

A fundamental tenet of biogeography is that abiotic and biotic factors interact to shape the distributions of species and the organization of communities, with interactions being more important in benign environments, and environmental filtering more important in stressful environments. This pattern is often inferred using large databases or phylogenetic signal, but physiological mechanisms underlying such patterns are rarely examined. We focused on 18 ant species at 29 sites along an extensive elevational gradient, coupling experimental data on critical thermal limits, null model analyses, and observational data of density and abundance to elucidate factors governing species’ elevational range limits. Thermal tolerance data showed that environmental conditions were likely to be more important in colder, more stressful environments, where physiology was the most important constraint on the distribution and density of ant species. Conversely, the evidence for species interactions was strongest in warmer, more benign conditions, as indicated by our observational data and null model analyses. Our results provide a strong test that biotic interactions drive the distributions and density of species in warm climates, but that environmental filtering predominates at colder, high-elevation sites. Such a pattern suggests that the responses of species to climate change are likely to be context-dependent and more specifically, geographically-dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diffuse Radiation Forcing Constraints on Gross Primary Productivity and Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration

Abstract The diffuse radiation fertilization effect—the increase in plant productivity in the presence of higher diffuse radiation ( K ↓,d )—is an important yet understudied aspect of atmosphere‐biosphere interactions and can modify the terrestrial carbon, energy, and water budgets. The K ↓,d fertilization effect links the carbon cycle with clouds and aerosols, all of which are large sources of uncertainties for our current understanding of the Earth system and for future climate projections. Here we establish to what extent observational and modeling uncertainty in sunlight's diffuse fraction ( k d ) affects simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and terrestrial evapotranspiration ( λE ). We find only 48 eddy covariance sites with simultaneous sufficient measurements of K ↓,d with none in the tropical climate zone, making it difficult to constrain this mechanism globally using observations. Using a land modeling framework based on the latest version of the Community Land Model, we find that global GPP ranges from 114 Pg C year −1 when using k d forcing from the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 reanalysis to a ∼7% higher value of 122 Pg C year −1 when using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System satellite product, with especially strong differences apparent over the tropical region (mean increase ∼9%). The differences in λE , although smaller (−0.4%) due to competing changes in shaded and sunlit leaf transpiration, can be greater than regional impacts of individual forcing agents like aerosols. Our results demonstrate the importance of comprehensively and systematically validating the simulated k d by atmosphere modules as well as the response to differences in k d within land modules across Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Aerosol Sources and Mixing States Field Campaign Report

The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than anywhere else on Earth, with rapidly shrinking sea ice extent transforming the region. Depending on chemical and physical properties, atmospheric aerosols directly scatter and/or absorb radiation, serve as cloud droplet and/or ice crystal nuclei, and/or reduce the reflectiveness of the snow surface, thereby altering the atmospheric energy budget. There is a wide spread in the magnitude of simulated arctic aerosol radiative forcing, and significant differences in aerosol concentration levels and seasonal cycles often exist between models and observations. Increasing local natural and anthropogenic emissions are significant, with uncertain climate impacts due to complex feedbacks. Model evaluations, however, are limited by the dearth of arctic aerosol observations available and an inadequate understanding of arctic aerosol processes. The majority of previous arctic aerosol observations have been made through intensive spring/summer field campaigns, with few intensive measurement studies focused on the fall-winter transition, a period when freeze-up is occurring later and thinning sea ice is resulting in wintertime ice fracturing. Aerosol monitoring at arctic coastal stations has provided knowledge of long-term seasonal trends in aerosol concentrations. The completed ARM field campaign addresses observational and knowledge gaps through detailed aerosol size and chemical composition measurements during the fall-winter transition in the coastal Arctic and through the entire annual cycle in the central Arctic. The observations are improving our understanding of the sources and processes controlling the aerosol population in the rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spin dynamics in natural multiferroic pyroxene NaFeSi 2 ⁢O 6

Spin dynamics in the natural mineral aegirine, NaFeSi 2⁢ O 6 , a member of the pyroxene family, was studied by elastic and inelastic neutron scattering. Magnetization and specific-heat measurements as well as single-crystal neutron diffraction maps, taken in the temperature range 2–20 K, confirm two successive magnetic transitions at 8.8 and 5.8 K, consistent with previous studies. The observed spin-wave excitations emerge from the incommensurate magnetic Bragg peaks corresponding to the propagation vector 𝑘 ICM = (0,0.77,0), and extend up to energies of about 1.5 meV. In the low-temperature helical phase, the spin dynamics of the Fe3+ ions is well described by a simple linear spin-wave model. The observed excitations can be modeled using a spin Hamiltonian that includes three primary exchange interactions—intrachain coupling 𝐽 = 0.142⁢(2) ⁢meV, and interchain couplings 𝐽 1 = 0.083⁢(1) ⁢meV and 𝐽 2 = 0.186⁢(1) meV—and an easy-plane anisotropy 𝐷 = 0.020⁢(6)⁢ meV. Furthermore, our results show that no single exchange interaction dominates the spin dynamics. The similar strengths of the intrachain and interchain couplings point to the fact that the magnetic interactions in aegirine are three dimensional rather than confined along one direction. As a result, the system cannot be considered quasi one dimensional, as previously suggested, and calls for further investigations.

Magnetic coupling↗

Neutron scattering study of magnetic anisotropy in the tetragonal antiferromagnet Bi 2 CuO 4

In this work, we present a comprehensive study of magnon excitations in the tetragonal easy-plane antiferromagnet Bi 2 CuO 4 using inelastic neutron scattering and spin-wave analyses. The nature of low-energy magnons, and hence the anisotropy in this material, has been controversial. We show unambiguously that the low-energy magnon spectrum consists of a gapped and a gapless mode, which we attribute to out-of-plane and in-plane spin fluctuations, respectively. We modeled the observed magnon spectrum using linear spin-wave analysis of a minimal anisotropic spin model motivated by the lattice symmetry. By studying the magnetic field dependence of the (1,0,0) Bragg peak intensity and the in-plane magnon intensity, we observed a spin-flop transition in the ab plane at ~0.4 T, which directly indicates the existence of a small in-plane anisotropy that is classically forbidden. It is only by taking into account magnon zero-point fluctuations beyond the linear spin-wave approximation that we could explain this in-plane anisotropy and its magnitude, the latter of which is deduced from the critical field of the spin-flop transition. The microscopic origins of the observed anisotropic interactions are also discussed. We found that our data are inconsistent with a large Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction, which suggests a potential departure of Bi 2 CuO 4 from the conventional theories of magnetic anisotropy for other cuprates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Constraining effects of aerosol-cloud interaction by accounting for coupling between cloud and land surface

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are vital for regulating Earth’s climate by influencing energy and water cycles. Yet, effects of ACI bear large uncertainties, evidenced by systematic discrepancies between observed and modeled estimates. This study quantifies a major bias in ACI determinations, stemming from conventional surface or space measurements that fail to capture aerosol at the cloud level unless the cloud is coupled with land surface. We introduce an advanced approach to determine radiative forcing of ACI by accounting for cloud-surface coupling. By integrating field observations, satellite data, and model simulations, this approach reveals a drastic alteration in aerosol vertical transport and ACI effects caused by cloud coupling. In coupled regimes, aerosols enhance cloud droplet number concentration across the boundary layer more homogeneously than in decoupled conditions, under which aerosols from the free atmosphere predominantly affect cloud properties, leading to marked cooling effects. Our findings spotlight cloud-surface coupling as a key factor for ACI quantification, hinting at potential underassessments in traditional estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Inter Converter Interactions using Harmonic State Space Modeling

Power converters have become a key participant within the modern grid, facilitating the grid's interaction with renewable energy sources and various loads, among others. These converters can also interact with each other, creating harmonics that were previously absent in the grid. While some previous research studies have focused on inter-converter interactions, not much focus has been on the role of pulse width modulators in these inter-converter interactions. This paper focuses on the issue and builds upon harmonic state-space modeling (HSS) to observe inter-converter harmonic interactions. A new modulator model is developed, and its implementation within HSS modeling to observe harmonic coupling between multiple inverters is highlighted. A simulation testbench is developed, and to verify the advantages and limitations of the proposed modeling approach, it is compared with two other traditional modeling methods: namely, average and switching models. The proposed method is shown to be significantly more accurate and informative than conventional average modeling methods and has considerably lower computation costs and simulation time than detailed switching models. The results are verified using extensive simulations on MATLAB.

Xue, Yaosuo↗