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At least 397 records · Page 22

High Throughput Data-Driven Design of Laser-Crystallized 2D MoS 2 Chemical Sensors: A Demonstration for NO 2 Detection

High throughput characterization and processing techniques are becoming increasingly necessary to navigate multivariable, data-driven design challenges for sensors and electronic devices. For two-dimensional materials, device performance is highly dependent upon a vast array of material properties including the number of layers, lattice strain, carrier concentration, defect density, and grain structure. In this work, laser crystallization was used to locally pattern and transform hundreds of regions of amorphous MoS 2 thin films into 2D 2H-MoS 2 . Here a high throughput Raman spectroscopy approach was subsequently used to assess the process-dependent structural and compositional variations for each illuminated region, yielding over 6000 distinct nonresonant, resonant, and polarized Raman spectra. The rapid generation of a comprehensive library of structural and compositional data elucidated important trends between structure–property processing relationships involving laser-crystallized MoS 2 , including the relationships between grain size, grain orientation, and intrinsic strain. Moreover, extensive analysis of structure/property relationships allowed for intelligent design and evaluation of major contributions to device performance in MoS 2 chemical sensors. In particular, it is found that NO 2 sensor performance is strongly dependent on the orientation of the MoS 2 grains relative to the crystal plane.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Review of Bayesian Networks for Spatial Data

We report Bayesian networks are a popular class of multivariate probabilistic models as they allow for the translation of prior beliefs about conditional dependencies between variables to be easily encoded into their model structure. Due to their widespread usage, they are often applied to spatial data for inferring properties of the systems under study and also generating predictions for how these systems may behave in the future. We review published research on methodologies for representing spatial data with Bayesian networks and also summarize the application areas for which Bayesian networks are employed in the modeling of spatial data. We find that a wide variety of perspectives are taken, including a GIS-centric focus on efficiently generating geospatial predictions, a statistical focus on rigorously constructing graphical models controlling for spatial correlation, as well as a range of problem-specific heuristics for mitigating the effects of spatial correlation and dependency arising in spatial data analysis. Special attention is also paid to potential future directions for integration of Bayesian networks with spatial processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Mesospheric Temperature

Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of approximately 1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of approximately 2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.

Li, Tao↗

Application of a two-stream radiative transfer model for leaf lignin and cellulose concentrations from spectral reflectance measurements, part 1

Lignin and nitrogen contents of leaves constitute the primary rate-limiting parameters for the decomposition of forest litter, and are determinants of nutrient- and carbon-cyclic rates in forest ecosystems (Melillo et al., 1982). Wessman et al. (1988a) developed empirical multivariate relationships between forest canopy lignin amount and the (first-difference) AIS spectral response in three bands spread over the wavelength interval 1256-1555 nm. Wessman et al. (1988b) and McLellan et al. (1991) developed similar regression relationships from laboratory reflectance measurements on dried samples prepared in a standard fashion. They used four to six infrared bands for analysis of nitrogen, lignin and cellulose content of foliage in forest and prairie species. In the present article (Parts 1 and 2) the feasibility of compositional determinations is explored using positions of composite absorption bands that originate from mixtures of lignin, cellulose, and possibly other chemical constituents in the spectral reflectance of green leaves. To carry out this program, we employ full-spectral-resolution single-leaf diffuse reflectance measurements made with a laboratory spectrometer and integrating sphere. The leaf and other chemical reflectance data compiled by Elvidge (1990) have also been utilized extensively.

Conel, James E.↗

Characterizing Fractures Across the Astronaut Corps: Preliminary Findings from Population-Level Analysis

Despite evidence of bone loss during spaceflight and operational countermeasures to mitigate this loss, the subsequent risk of fracture among astronauts is not known. The physiologic process of diminished bone density and bone recovery during or following spaceflight is multifactorial. Such factors as age, sex, fracture history, and others may combine to increase fracture risk among astronauts. As part of the 2016 Bone Research and Clinical Advisory Panel (RCAP), the authors analyzed data collected on 338 NASA astronauts to describe the demographics, bone-relevant characteristics, and fracture history of the astronaut population. The majority of the population are male (n=286, 84.6%), have flown at least one mission (n=306, 90.5%), and were between the ages of 30 and 49 at first mission (n=296, 96.7% of those with at least one mission). Of the 338 astronauts, 241 (71.3%) experienced a fracture over the course of their lifetime. One hundred and five (43.5%) of these 241 astronauts only experienced a fracture prior to being selected into the Astronaut Corps, whereas 53 (22.0%) only experienced a fracture after selection as an astronaut. An additional 80 astronauts (33.2%) had both pre- and post-selection fractures. The remaining 3 astronauts had a fracture of unknown date, which could not be categorized as pre- or post-selection. Among the 133 astronauts with at least one post-selection fracture, males comprised 90.2% (n=120) compared to 84.5% of the entire Corps, and females accounted for 9.8% (n=13) compared to 15.4% of the Corps. Ninety-seven of the 133 astronauts with post-selection fractures (72.9%) had one fracture event, 22 (16.5%) had two fractures, and 14 (10.5%) had three or more fractures. Some astronauts with multiple fractures suffered these in a single event, such as an automobile accident. The 133 astronauts with a post-selection fracture accounted for a total of 188 fracture events. One hundred and four (78.2%) of astronauts with post-selection fractures experienced those fractures following their first mission (mean 12.7 +/- 11.1 years following first mission; range 14.0 days - 50.6 years). Additional analyses are ongoing and include examination of fracture history, skeletal site, mechanism, and type of fracture, age at time of fracture, time from spaceflight to fracture, as well as multivariable analysis comparing fracture events to non-events. The results of such analyses may reveal trends in risk factors for fracture among the astronaut corps that have yet to be systematically described through a corps-wide approach.

Rossi, Meredith M.↗

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EPIsembleVis: A geo-visual analysis and comparison of the prediction ensembles of multiple COVID-19 models

In this work, we present EPIsembleVis, a web-based comparative visual analysis tool for evaluating the consistency of multiple COVID-19 prediction models. Our approach analyzes a collection of COVID-19 predictions from different epidemiological models as an ensemble and utilizes two metrics to quantify model performance. These metrics include (a) prediction uncertainty (represented as the dispersion of predictions in each ensemble) and (b) prediction error (calculated by comparing individual model predictions with the recorded data). Through an interactive visual interface, our approach provides a data-driven workflow for (a) selecting and constructing the COVID-19 model prediction ensemble based on the spatiotemporal overlap of available predictions of multiple epidemiological models, (b) quantifying the model performance using both the uncertainty of each model prediction ensemble, and the error of each ensemble member that represents individual model predictions, and (c) visualizing the spatiotemporal variability in the projection performance of individual models using a suite of novel ensemble visualization techniques, such as the data availability map, a spatiotemporal textured-tile calendar, multivariate rose chart, and time-series leaflet glyph. We demonstrate the capability of our ensemble visual interface through a case study that investigates the performance of weekly COVID-19 predictions, which are provided through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence [47] for the United States and United States Territories. The EPIsembleVis tool is implemented using open-source web technologies and adaptive system design, rendering it interoperable with Elasticsearch and Kibana for automatically ingesting COVID-19 predictions from online repositories, and it is generalizable for analyzing worldwide projections from more epidemiological models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-29978-DND

Energy within an atmospheric column changes due to absorption of shortwave irradiance, emission of longwave irradiance, enthalpy released by precipitation, convergence of dry static and kinetic energy flux, and surface sensible heat flux. When satellite derived irradiance, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux data products, as well as tendency and horizontal advection of dry static and kinetic energy fluxes from reanalysis are used to compute the atmospheric energy balance, energy fluxes does not balance exactly, resulting in an energy balance residual. A study by Kato et al. (2016) shows that large residuals exist over tropical oceans. In this study, we examine how the energy balance residual changes with time. If the energy balance residual for a given region is constant every year, this implies that annual anomalies of energy flux components balance over the region. If, however, the energy balance residual changes with time, an analysis of the dependence on atmospheric or cloud properties may provide information to understand the reason for the residual. A preliminary result indicates that significant interannual variabilities in energy balance residual exist when annual energy balance residuals over the entire ocean is examined. Temporal variability of regional energy budget residual and covariability of the energy budget residual with the multivariate ENSO index and the occurrence of specific cloud types will further be investigated.

Seiji Kato↗

Application of multivariate statistics to vestibular testing: discriminating between Meniere's disease and migraine associated dizziness

Meniere's disease (MD) and migraine associated dizziness (MAD) are two disorders that can have similar symptomatologies, but differ vastly in treatment. Vestibular testing is sometimes used to help differentiate between these disorders, but the inefficiency of a human interpreter analyzing a multitude of variables independently decreases its utility. Our hypothesis was that we could objectively discriminate between patients with MD and those with MAD using select variables from the vestibular test battery. Sinusoidal harmonic acceleration test variables were reduced to three vestibulo-ocular reflex physiologic parameters: gain, time constant, and asymmetry. A combination of these parameters plus a measurement of reduced vestibular response from caloric testing allowed us to achieve a joint classification rate of 91%, independent quadratic classification algorithm. Data from posturography were not useful for this type of differentiation. Overall, our classification function can be used as an unbiased assistant to discriminate between MD and MAD and gave us insight into the pathophysiologic differences between the two disorders.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

In an initial investigation, remotely sensed surface temperature is assimilated into a coupled atmosphere/land global data assimilation system, with explicit accounting for biases in the model state. In this scheme, an incremental bias correction term is introduced in the model's surface energy budget. In its simplest form, the algorithm estimates and corrects a constant time mean bias for each gridpoint; additional benefits are attained with a refined version of the algorithm which allows for a correction of the mean diurnal cycle. The method is validated against the assimilated observations, as well as independent near-surface air temperature observations. In many regions, not accounting for the diurnal cycle of bias caused degradation of the diurnal amplitude of background model air temperature. Energy fluxes collected through the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) are used to more closely inspect the surface energy budget. In general, sensible heat flux is improved with the surface temperature assimilation, and two stations show a reduction of bias by as much as 30 Wm(sup -2) Rondonia station in Amazonia, the Bowen ratio changes direction in an improvement related to the temperature assimilation. However, at many stations the monthly latent heat flux bias is slightly increased. These results show the impact of univariate assimilation of surface temperature observations on the surface energy budget, and suggest the need for multivariate land data assimilation. The results also show the need for independent validation data, especially flux stations in varied climate regimes.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Long-Term Statistical Process Monitoring of an Ultrafiltration Water Treatment Process

As water treatment technology has improved, the amount of available process data has substantially increased, making real-time, data-driven fault detection a reality. One shortcoming of the fault detection literature is that methods are usually evaluated by comparing their performance on hand-picked, short-term case studies, which yields no insight into long-term performance. In this work, we first evaluate multiple statistical and machine learning approaches for detrending process data. Then, we evaluate the performance of a PCA-based fault detection approach, applied to the detrended data, to monitor influent water quality, filtrate quality, and membrane fouling of an ultrafiltration membrane system for indirect potable reuse. Based on two short case studies, the adaptive lasso detrending method is selected, and the performance of the multivariate approach is evaluated over more than a year. The method is tested for different sets of three critical tuning parameters, and we find that for long-term, autonomous monitoring to be successful, these parameters should be carefully evaluated. However, in comparison with industry standards of simpler, univariate monitoring or daily pressure decay tests, multivariate monitoring produces substantial benefits in long-term testing.

ammonia↗

Absolute Band Intensity of the Iodine Monochloride Fundamental Mode for Infrared Sensing and Quantitative Analysis

Iodine monochloride (ICl) is a gaseous off-product of molten salt reactors; monitoring this heteronuclear diatomic is of great interest for both environmental and safety purposes. In this paper we investigate the possibility of infrared monitoring of ICl by measuring the far-infrared absorption cross section of its fundamental band near 381 cm -1 . We have performed quantitative studies of the neat gas in a 20 cm cell at 25, 35, 50 and 70 oC at multiple pressures up to ~ 9 Torr and investigated the temperature and pressure dependence of the band’s infrared cross section. Quantitative measurements were problematic due to sample adhesion to the cell walls and windows as well as reactions/possible hydrolysis of ICl to form HCl gas. Effects were mitigated by measuring only the neat gas, using short measurement times and subtracting out the partial pressure of the HCl(g). The integrated band strength is shown to be temperature independent and was found to be equal to 9.1 x 10 -19 (cm 2 /molecule) cm-1. As expected, the temperature dependence of the band profile showed only a small effect over this limited temperature range. Furthermore, we have also investigated using the absorption data along with inverse least squares multivariate methods for the quantitative monitoring of ICl effluent concentrations under different scenarios using infrared (standoff) sensing and compare these results with traditional Beer’s Law (univariate) techniques.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Land Model Testbed: Accelerating Development, Benchmarking and Analysis of Land Surface Models

A Land Model Testbed (LMT), designed to provide a computational framework for systematically assessing model fidelity and supporting rapid development of complex multiscale models, offers a general-purpose workflow for conducting large ensemble simulations of multiple land surface models, post-processing large volumes of model output, and evaluating model results. It leverages existing tools for launching model simulations and the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for assessing model fidelity through comparison with best-available observational datasets. Increased complexity and proliferation of uncertain parameters in process representations in land surface models has driven the need for frequent and intensive testing and evaluating of models to quantify uncertainties and optimize parameters such that results are consistent with observations. The LMT described here meets these needs by providing tools to run thousands of ensemble simulations simultaneously and post-process their output files, by automating execution of an enhanced version of ILAMB with site-specific benchmarks and multivariate functional relationships, and by offering ensemble diagnostics and a customizable dashboard for displaying model performance metrics and associated graphics. We envision the LMT capabilities will serve as a foundational computational resource for a proposed user facility focused on terrestrial multiscale model--data integration.

Sreepathi, Sarat↗

Application of multivariable search techniques to structural design optimization

Multivariable optimization techniques are applied to a particular class of minimum weight structural design problems: the design of an axially loaded, pressurized, stiffened cylinder. Minimum weight designs are obtained by a variety of search algorithms: first- and second-order, elemental perturbation, and randomized techniques. An exterior penalty function approach to constrained minimization is employed. Some comparisons are made with solutions obtained by an interior penalty function procedure. In general, it would appear that an interior penalty function approach may not be as well suited to the class of design problems considered as the exterior penalty function approach. It is also shown that a combination of search algorithms will tend to arrive at an extremal design in a more reliable manner than a single algorithm. The effect of incorporating realistic geometrical constraints on stiffener cross-sections is investigated. A limited comparison is made between minimum weight cylinders designed on the basis of a linear stability analysis and cylinders designed on the basis of empirical buckling data. Finally, a technique for locating more than one extremal is demonstrated.

Jones, R. T.↗

Active Learning-driven Quantitative Synthesis-Structure-Property Relations for Improving Performance and Revealing Active Sites of Nitrogen-Doped Carbon for the Hydrogen Evolution Reaction

While quantitative structure-properties relations (QSPRs) have been developed successfully in multiple fields, catalyst synthesis affects structure and in turn performance, making simple QSPRs inadequate. Furthermore, catalysts often have multiple active sites preventing one from obtaining insights into structure-property relations. Here, we develop a data-driven quantitative synthesis-structure-property relation (QS2PRs) methodology to elucidate correlations between catalyst synthesis conditions, structural properties as well as observed performance and to provide fundamental insights into active sites and a systematic way to optimize practical catalysts. Here, we demonstrate the approach to the synthesis of nitrogen-doped catalysts (NDC) made via pyrolysis for the performance of the electrochemical hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), quantified by the onset potential and the current density. We determine crystallinity, nitrogen species type and fraction, surface area, and pore structure of the NDC’s using XRD, XPS, and BET characterization. We demonstrated that an active learning-based optimization combined with various elementary machine learning tools (regression, principal component analysis, partial least squares) can efficiently identify optimum pyrolysis conditions to tune structural characteristics and performance with concomitant savings in materials and experimental time. Unlike previous reports on the importance of pyridinic or graphitic nitrogen, we discover that the electrochemical performance is not driven by a single catalyst property; rather, it arises from a multivariate influence of nitrogen dopants, pore structure and disorder in the NDC materials. Identification of active sites can help mechanistic understanding and further catalyst improvement.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Robust Predictive Control for Modular Solid-State Transformer With Reduced DC Link and Parameter Mismatch

This paper presents the analysis and implementation of a predictive control method for dc-link regulation and voltage balance in a cascaded modular reduced dc-link solid-state transformer (SST). Passive components like bulky dc links limit the power density of power converters, especially medium-voltage (MV) SST. Reduced dc-link or low-inertia converters can dramatically reduce the size, cost, and weight by tolerating larger dc-link ripples and improve the reliability with electrolytic capacitor-less dc link. However, a small dc link leads to tight coupling between the input and the output stages, which is a challenge for control design. In stacked low-inertia converters (SLIC), the low-inertia converter modules are stacked for MV applications, resulting in coupling between the modules and making the control more challenging. A new model predictive control method which can achieve deadbeat regulation on the dc link without weighting factors has been proposed to address this novel problem. This paper focuses on analyzing the condition of the low-inertia dc link up to 80% ripple, the robustness of the control under parameter mismatches, high-order terms, and important implementation issues such as model-based sampling and computation delay compensation. Significantly, the high-order terms are introduced because of the large dc-link ripple. These high-order terms are unique to the SLIC and negligible in conventional high-inertia converters. A discrete-time large-signal model is built to capture the dc-link’s nonlinear dynamics, and the eigenvalues of a small-signal Jacobian matrix are analyzed with Floquet theory to evaluate stability, using the modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) as an example of the SLIC. Simulation and experimental results of an MVDC M-S4T verify the analysis and the predictive control method. Finally, the general application of the predictive control to low-inertia converters is compared against a conventional PI controller using a reduced dc-link active-front-end (AFE) rectifier as an example.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Mapping Arid Vegetation Species Distributions in the White Mountains, Eastern California, Using AVIRIS, Topography, and Geology

Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.

VandeVen, C.↗