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NASA NTRS2014

Model Checking Degrees of Belief in a System of Agents

Reasoning about degrees of belief has been investigated in the past by a number of authors and has a number of practical applications in real life. In this paper we present a unified framework to model and verify degrees of belief in a system of agents. In particular, we describe an extension of the temporal-epistemic logic CTLK and we introduce a semantics based on interpreted systems for this extension. In this way, degrees of beliefs do not need to be provided externally, but can be derived automatically from the possible executions of the system, thereby providing a computationally grounded formalism. We leverage the semantics to (a) construct a model checking algorithm, (b) investigate its complexity, (c) provide a Java implementation of the model checking algorithm, and (d) evaluate our approach using the standard benchmark of the dining cryptographers. Finally, we provide a detailed case study: using our framework and our implementation, we assess and verify the situational awareness of the pilot of Air France 447 flying in off-nominal conditions.

MAS Verification↗

NASA NTRS1991

Framework Programmable Platform for the advanced software development workstation: Framework processor design document

The design of the Framework Processor (FP) component of the Framework Programmable Software Development Platform (FFP) is described. The FFP is a project aimed at combining effective tool and data integration mechanisms with a model of the software development process in an intelligent integrated software development environment. Guided by the model, this Framework Processor will take advantage of an integrated operating environment to provide automated support for the management and control of the software development process so that costly mistakes during the development phase can be eliminated.

Mayer, Richard J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Testing the Predictive Capability of the High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells Using an Efficient Reformulation

The High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells is a new micromechanics model for unidirectionally reinforced periodic multiphase materials that was developed to overcome the original model's shortcomings. The high-fidelity version predicts the local stress and strain fields with dramatically greater accuracy relative to the original model through the use of a better displacement field representation. Herein, we test the high-fidelity model's predictive capability in estimating the elastic moduli of periodic composites characterized by repeating unit cells obtained by rotation of an infinite square fiber array through an angle about the fiber axis. Such repeating unit cells may contain a few or many fibers, depending on the rotation angle. In order to analyze such multi-inclusion repeating unit cells efficiently, the high-fidelity micromechanics model's framework is reformulated using the local/global stiffness matrix approach. The excellent agreement with the corresponding results obtained from the standard transformation equations confirms the new model's predictive capability for periodic composites characterized by multi-inclusion repeating unit cells lacking planes of material symmetry. Comparison of the effective moduli and local stress fields with the corresponding results obtained from the original Generalized Method of Cells dramatically highlights the original model's shortcomings for certain classes of unidirectional composites.

Arnold, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updates on the Predictive Materials Modeling Software Tools

Updates on NASA‘s efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. The PMM effort is part of the Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) project under NASA’s Game Changing Development (GCD) program. To reduce the need for extensive testing and accelerate the design cycle process, ESM is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable the characterization of the properties of thermal protection materials and their response to extremely hot plasma. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software has been developed to compute effective material properties and perform material response simulations on digitized microstructures of porous media. PuMA is able to import three-dimensional digital images obtained from X-ray microtomography or to generate artificial microstructures that mimic real materials. PuMA also provides a module for interactive 3D visualizations. Version 3, which was recently released as open-source, includes modules to compute simple morphological properties such as porosity, volume fractions, pore diameter, and specific surface area. Additional capabilities include the determination of effective thermal and electrical conductivity (both radiative and solid conduction - including the ability to simulate local anisotropy for the latter); effective diffusivity and tortuosity from the continuum to the rarefied regime; techniques to determine the local material orientation, as well as mechanical properties (elasticity coefficients), and permeability. Computed properties are then used to inform a macro-scale material response model, such as those implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software developed within ESM. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale, assuming Local Thermal Equilibrium. Recent efforts include the development of a mechanical erosion model as well as a unified model allowing an intrinsic coupling between fluid and material. Comparison to flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI] and Mars 2020 MEDLI2) is critical in order to validate these computational tools. Examples of ablative material response using the code will be presented, including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrated the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains through the use of massively parallel computations.

material modeling↗

NASA NTRS2007

Model Checking Abstract PLEXIL Programs with SMART

We describe a method to automatically generate discrete-state models of abstract Plan Execution Interchange Language (PLEXIL) programs that can be analyzed using model checking tools. Starting from a high-level description of a PLEXIL program or a family of programs with common characteristics, the generator lays the framework that models the principles of program execution. The concrete parts of the program are not automatically generated, but require the modeler to introduce them by hand. As a case study, we generate models to verify properties of the PLEXIL macro constructs that are introduced as shorthand notation. After an exhaustive analysis, we conclude that the macro definitions obey the intended semantics and behave as expected, but contingently on a few specific requirements on the timing semantics of micro-steps in the concrete executive implementation.

Siminiceanu, Radu I.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Computational Modeling of Cephalad Fluid Shift for Application to Microgravity-Induced Visual Impairment

An improved understanding of spaceflight-induced ocular pathology, including the loss of visual acuity, globe flattening, optic disk edema and distension of the optic nerve and optic nerve sheath, is of keen interest to space medicine. Cephalad fluid shift causes a profoundly altered distribution of fluid within the compartments of the head and body, and may indirectly generate phenomena that are biomechanically relevant to visual function, such as choroidal engorgement, compromised drainage of blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and altered translaminar pressure gradient posterior to the eye. The experimental body of evidence with respect to the consequences of fluid shift has not yet been able to provide a definitive picture of the sequence of events. On earth, elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) is associated with idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH), which can produce ocular pathologies that look similar to those seen in some astronauts returning from long-duration flight. However, the clinically observable features of the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome in space and IIH on earth are not entirely consistent. Moreover, there are at present no experimental measurements of ICP in microgravity. By its very nature, physiological measurements in spaceflight are sparse, and the space environment does not lend itself to well-controlled experiments. In the absence of such data, numerical modeling can play a role in the investigation of biomechanical causal pathways that are suspected of involvement in VIIP. In this work, we describe the conceptual framework for modeling the altered compartmental fluid distribution that represents an equilibrium fluid distribution resulting from the loss of hydrostatic pressure gradient.

Nelson, Emily S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

NASA/University JOint VEnture (JOVE) Program: Transverse Shear Moduli Using the Torsional Responses of Rectangular Laminates

The first year included a study of the non-visible damage of composite overwrapped pressure vessels with B. Poe of the Materials Branch of Nasa-Langley. Early determinations showed a clear reduction in non-visible damage for thin COPVs when partially pressurized rather than unpressurized. Literature searches on Thicker-wall COPVs revealed surface damage but clearly visible. Analysis of current Analytic modeling indicated that that current COPV models lacked sufficient thickness corrections to predict impact damage. After a comprehensive study of available published data and numerous numerical studies based on observed data from Langley, the analytic framework for modeling the behavior was determined lacking and both Poe and Bogan suggested any short term (3yr) result for Jove would be overly ambitious and emphasis should be placed on transverse shear moduli studies. Transverse shear moduli determination is relevant to the study of fatigue, fracture and aging effects in composite structures. Based on the techniques developed by Daniel & Tsai, Bogan and Gates determined to verify the results for K3B and 8320. A detailed analytic and experimental plan was established and carried out that included variations in layup, width, thickness, and length. As well as loading rate variations to determine effects and relaxation moduli. The additional axial loads during the torsion testing were studied as was the placement of gages along the composite specimen. Of the proposed tasks, all of tasks I and 2 were completed with presentations given at Langley, SEM conferences and ASME/AIAA conferences. Sensitivity issues with the technique associated with the use of servohydraulic test systems for applying the torsional load to the composite specimen limited the torsion range for predictable and repeatable transverse shear properties. Bogan and Gates determined to diverge on research efforts with Gates continuing the experimental testing at Langley and Bogan modeling the apparent non-linear behavior at low torque & angles apparent from the tests.

Bogan, Sam↗

NASA NTRS1996

Project Management Framework to Organizational Transitions

This paper describes a project management framework and associated models for organizational transitions. The framework contains an integrated set of steps an organization can take to lead an organizational transition such as downsizing and change in mission or role. The framework is designed to help an organization do the right work the right way with the right people at the right time. The underlying rationale for the steps in the framework is based on a set of findings which include: defining a transition as containing both near-term and long-term actions, designing actions which respond to drivers and achieve desired results, aligning the organization with the external environment, and aligning the internal components of the organization. The framework was developed based on best practices found in the literature, lessons learned from heads of organizations who have completed large-scale organizational changes, and concerns from employees at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The framework is described using KSC.

Kotnour, Tim↗

NASA NTRS2003

Assimilation of Precipitation Information Retrieved from Passive Microwave Sensors

Estimates of surface precipitation and the associated vertical latent heating structure can be retrieved from space-borne passive microwave sensors such as the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Studies have shown that assimilation of microwave rain rates can improve the quality of global analysis and forecast. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are beginning to make operational use of these data. In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to be launched around 2007. Realizing the full potential of these observations in data assimilation will require continued advances in retrieval algorithms, assimilation techniques, and model physics. I present results from two research efforts at NASA GSFC. The first is on the assimilation of tropical precipitation using temperature/moisture tendency corrections within a continuous variational assimilation framework to improve analyses and forecasts produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. Results show that assimilation of TMI and SSM/I rain rates improves not only precipitation and moisture, but also the related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in GEOS analyses. The improved analyses also yield better short-range forecasts, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) threat scores, and storm track predictions. The second part consists of results from exploratory experiments on variational assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating profiles within the general framework of model parameter estimation as a way to identify systematic model errors and optimize physical paremeterization schemes in global forecast and climate models.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of Transport-Equation-Based Transition Models for High-Speed Boundary Layers Using OVERFLOW

Accurate modeling of laminar-turbulent transition is crucial for the design of hypersonic flight systems. However, the current transition models used in production CFD codes are insufficient for high-speed flows. Many extensions to low-speed models have been suggested; however, a thorough verification and validation effort is needed before these models can be used in design settings. Challenges include potentially missing details of the model implementation requirements and/or a complete specification of the input parameters needed to replicate the test findings. A meaningful assessment of the generalization capability of these models is also hindered by a lack of information regarding the specific flow configurations and associated grids employed for model calibration. As a key first step toward model verification, we present an independent assessment of two recently proposed models for high-speed transition, namely, a model within the SST-$\gamma$ framework and a model based on the SST-$\gamma-\nu_L$ equations. These models are implemented in the NASA OVERFLOW 2.3e solver and their performance in predicting first mode, second mode, and crossflow transition has been evaluated for several test cases in the supersonic and hypersonic regimes. Besides the test cases employed by the model developers, which could have also been used for model calibration, the present assessment includes supplementary configurations that contribute to an unbiased assessment of the models. The outcomes presented in this study indicate the potential for the models to be applied to high-speed flight configurations. Key steps toward future improvements to these models are also outlined.

High-speed flow↗

NASA NTRS2020

Computationally-efficient Structural Models for Analysis of Woven Composites

The paper presents a novel approach to model woven composite using the computationally efficient one-dimensional models. The framework is built within the scheme of the Carrera Unified Formulation (CUF), a generalized hierarchical formulation that generates variable kinematic structural theories. Various components of the woven composite unit cell are modeled using a combination of straight and curved one-dimensional CUF models. By employing a component-wise approach, a modeling technique within CUF, the complex geometry of the woven composite components is modeled precisely. The ability of CUF models to accurately resolve stress and strain fields are exploited to capture complex deformation within a woven composite unit cell. Numerical results include analyses of a non-crimped textile composite, a curved tow under tension, and a dry woven textile unit cell.

Kaleel, Ibrahim↗

NASA NTRS2020

Credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare: ten rules from a multidisciplinary perspective

The complexities of modern biomedicine are rapidly increasing. Thus, modeling and simulation have become increasingly important as a strategy to understand and predict the trajectory of pathophysiology, disease genesis, and disease spread in support of clinical and policy decisions. In such cases, inappropriate or ill-placed trust in the model and simulation outcomes may result in negative outcomes, and hence illustrate the need to formalize the execution and communication of modeling and simulation practices. Although verification and validation have been generally accepted as significant components of a model’s credibility, they cannot be assumed to equate to a holistic credible practice, which includes activities that can impact comprehension and in-depth examination inherent in the devel-opment and reuse of the models. For the past several years, the Committee on Credible Practice of Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare, an interdisciplinary group seeded from a U.S. interagency initiative, has worked to codify best practices. Here, we provide Ten Rules for credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare developed from a comparative analysis by the Committee’s multidisciplinary membership, followed by a large stakeholder com-munity survey. These rules establish a unified conceptual framework for modeling and simulation design, implementation, evaluation, dissemination and usage across the modeling and simulation life-cycle. While biomedical science and clinical care domains have somewhat different requirements and expectations for credible practice, our study converged on rules that would be useful across a broad swath of model types. In brief, the rules are: (1) Define context clearly. (2) Use contextually appropriate data. (3) Evaluate within context. (4) List limitations explicitly. (5) Use version control. (6) Document appropriately. (7) Disseminate broadly. (8) Get independent reviews. (9) Test competing imple-mentations. (10) Conform to standards. Although some of these are common sense guidelines, we have found that many are often missed or misconstrued, even by seasoned practitioners. Computational models are already widely used in basic science to generate new biomedical knowledge. As they penetrate clinical care and healthcare policy, contributing to personalized and precision medicine, clinical safety will require established guidelines for the credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare.

Credibility↗

NASA NTRS2009

Model Based Analysis and Test Generation for Flight Software

We describe a framework for model-based analysis and test case generation in the context of a heterogeneous model-based development paradigm that uses and combines Math- Works and UML 2.0 models and the associated code generation tools. This paradigm poses novel challenges to analysis and test case generation that, to the best of our knowledge, have not been addressed before. The framework is based on a common intermediate representation for different modeling formalisms and leverages and extends model checking and symbolic execution tools for model analysis and test case generation, respectively. We discuss the application of our framework to software models for a NASA flight mission.

Pasareanu, Corina S.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

Past studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance-based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecasted” ET values at 16-30 day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecasted by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecasted meteorology in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental US) of the T2M anomalies produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16-30 day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system

Randal D Koster↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.

Thermal Modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Thermal Modeling↗