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At least 397 records · Page 22

Value of abstraction in performance assessment – When is a higher level of detail necessary?

In this study, different approaches in performance assessment (PA) of the long-term safety of a repository for radioactive waste were examined. This investigation was carried out as part of the DECOVALEX-2023 project, an international collaborative effort for research and model comparison. One specific task of the DECOVALEX-2023 project was the Salt Performance Assessment Modelling task (Salt PA), which aimed at comparing various models and methods employed in the performance assessment of deep geological repositories in salt. In the context of the Salt PA task, three distinct teams from SNL (United States), Quintessa Ltd (United Kingdom), and GRS (Germany) examined the consequences of employing different levels of abstractions when modelling the repository's geometry and implementing various features and processes, using the example of a simple hypothetical repository structure in domal salt. Each team applied their own tools: PFLOTRAN (SNL), QPAC (Quintessa) and LOPOS (GRS). These differ essentially regarding numerical concept and degree of detail in the representation of the underlying physical processes. The discussion focused on when simplifications can be appropriately applied and what consequences result from them. Furthermore, it was explored when and if a higher level of fidelity in geometry or physical processes is required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Realistic Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in Global Convection-Permitting Models by Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems

Accurately representing the precipitation diurnal cycle has long been a challenge for global climate models (GCMs). Here we evaluate the precipitation diurnal cycle in the DYAMOND global convection-permitting models (CPMs) and CMIP6 HighResMIP models. Comparison of the high- (25–50 km) and low-resolution (100–250 km) models with parameterized convection in HighResMIP shows that simply increasing model resolution does not noticeably improve the precipitation diurnal cycle. In contrast, CPMs can better capture the observed amplitude and timing of precipitation diurnal cycle. However, the simulated spatial variation of timing in CPMs is smaller than observed, leading to an exaggeration of the spatially averaged diurnal amplitude. The better-simulated precipitation diurnal cycle in the CPMs is tied to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which contribute about half of the total precipitation. The observed life cycle of MCSs, including initiation and mature stages, is well captured in the CPMs, leading to a more realistic precipitation diurnal cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Update to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Baseline Wind Turbine Controller

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 5-MW wind turbine model is well established as an industry standard and is often used as a comparison model, or a model on which to build upon. Though effective, the legacy controller for the 5-MW wind turbine uses a simple algorithm that is not up to date with many industry standards. Additionally, as the research community has advanced into fast-paced development cycles, as systems engineering tools such as Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM ®) [1] are employed, and as a greater focus on controls co-design practices is encouraged, demand for a generic wind turbine controller has arisen. This work presents updates for the NREL 5-MW controller to a more modern control architecture, and establishes a generic tuning framework that can be easily adapted to various wind turbines. Based on initial results, the updated generic controller eases the automatic tuning process while maintaining or improving the performance of the legacy NREL 5-MW controller.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Update to the NREL Baseline Wind Turbine Controller: Preprint

The NREL 5MW wind turbine model is well established as an industry standard and is often used as a comparison model, or a model on which to build upon. Though effective, the legacy controller for the NREL 5MW wind turbine is built on a simple algorithm that is not up to date with many industry standards. Additionally, as the research community has advanced into more fast-paced development cycles, as systems engineering tools such as WISDEM \cite{WISDEM} are employed, and as a greater focus on controls co-design practices is encouraged, a demand for a generic wind turbine controller has arisen. This work presents updates for the NREL 5MW baseline controller to a more modern control architecture, and establishes a generic tuning framework that can be easily adapted to various wind turbines. Based on initial results, the updated generic controller eases the automatic tuning process, while maintaining or improving upon the performance of the legacy NREL 5MW controller.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A critical assessment of solutions to the galaxy diversity problem

Galactic rotation curves exhibit a diverse range of inner slopes. Observational data indicates that explaining this diversity may require a mechanism that correlates a galaxy's surface brightness with the central-most region of its dark matter halo. Here, in this work, we compare several concrete models that capture the relevant physics required to explain the galaxy diversity problem. We focus specifically on a Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) model with an isothermal core and two Cold Dark Matter (CDM) models with/without baryonic feedback. In contrast to the CDM case, the SIDM model can lead to the formation of an isothermal core in the halo, and is also mostly insensitive to baryonic feedback processes, which act on longer time-scales. Using rotation curves from 90 galaxies in the Spitzer Photometry & Accurate Rotation Curves (SPARC) catalog, we perform a comprehensive model comparison that addresses issues of statistical methodology from prior works. The best-fit halo models that we recover are consistent with standard CDM concentration-mass and abundance matching relations. We find that both the SIDM and feedback-affected CDM models are better than a CDM model with no feedback in explaining the rotation curves of low and high surface brightness galaxies in the sample. However, when compared to each other, there is no strong statistical preference for either the SIDM or the feedback-affected CDM halo model as the source of galaxy diversity in the SPARC catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Preliminary test results with a Stirling Laboratory Research Engine

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has designed, assembled, and initiated testing of a Stirling Laboratory Research Engine (SLRE). This preprototype engine provides a research tool to support the development of a broad range of analytical modeling and experimental efforts. The SLRE is a horizontally opposed, two-piston, single-acting Stirling engine with a split crankshaft drive mechanism. The paper discusses the preliminary results obtained during engine motoring tests and compares these results with two different analytical prediction models. Comparisons are made between experiment, the classical Schmidt analysis, and the JPL Stirling Cycle Analysis Model (SCAM). SCAM is a computerized one-dimensional, cyclic, compressible flow model of the SLRE and consists of a compilation of individual component subroutines. The formulation and current state of development of the SCAM program is briefly described.

Hoehn, F. W.↗

A dynamic response model for pressure sensors in continuum and high Knudsen number flows with large temperature gradients

This paper develops a dynamic model for pressure sensors in continuum and rarefied flows with longitudinal temperature gradients. The model was developed from the unsteady Navier-Stokes momentum, energy, and continuity equations and was linearized using small perturbations. The energy equation was decoupled from momentum and continuity assuming a polytropic flow process. Rarefied flow conditions were accounted for using a slip flow boundary condition at the tubing wall. The equations were radially averaged and solved assuming gas properties remain constant along a small tubing element. This fundamental solution was used as a building block for arbitrary geometries where fluid properties may also vary longitudinally in the tube. The problem was solved recursively starting at the transducer and working upstream in the tube. Dynamic frequency response tests were performed for continuum flow conditions in the presence of temperature gradients. These tests validated the recursive formulation of the model. Model steady-state behavior was analyzed using the final value theorem. Tests were performed for rarefied flow conditions and compared to the model steady-state response to evaluate the regime of applicability. Model comparisons were excellent for Knudsen numbers up to 0.6. Beyond this point, molecular affects caused model analyses to become inaccurate.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

A study of the rotor wake of a small-scale rotor model in forward flight using laser light sheet flow visualization with comparisons to analytical models

An experimental investigation was conducted in the 14 by 22 ft subsonic tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify the rotor wake behind a scale model helicopter rotor in forward flight (mu = 0.15 and 0.23) at one thrust level (C sub T = 0.0064). The rotor system used in the present test consisted of a four-bladed, fully articulated hub and utilized blades of rectangular planform with a NACA-0012 airfoil section. A laser light sheet, seeded with propylene glycol smoke, was used to visualize the flow in planes parallel and perpendicular to the freestream flow. Quantitative measurements of vortex location, vertical skew angle, and vortex particle void radius were obtained for vortices in the flow; convective velocities were obtained for blade tip vortices. Comparisons were made between the experimental results and the wake geometry generated by computational predictions. The results of these comparisons show that the interaction between wake vortex structures is an important consideration for correctly predicting the wake geometry.

Ghee, Terence A.↗

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science Plan and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Climate modelling↗

The High Latitude Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Transition Region: Simulation and Data Comparison

This technical paper presents a brief decription of the major activities for this grant during the last three years. Technologyical areas discussed include: model development, ExB convection heating study, study of energetic electron precipitation, polar cap data-model comparison, study of wave heating of O(+), study of photoelectron effects, and study of molecular ion outflow.

Wilson, Gordon R.↗

Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

Abstract The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO 2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Chemistry Experiments

The purpose of the chemistry component of the model comparison is to assess to what extent differences in the formulation of chemical processes explain the variance between model results. Observed concentrations of chemical compounds are used to estimate to what degree the various models represent realistic situations. For readability, the materials for the chemistry experiment are reported in three separate sections. This section discussed the data used to evaluate the models in their simulation of the source gases and the Nitrogen compounds (NO(y)) and Chlorine compounds (Cl(y)) species.

Brasseur, Guy↗

Assessment of Low-Altitude Atmospheric Turbulence Models for Aircraft Aeroelasticity

We investigate the dynamic aeroelastic response of large but slow aircraft in low-altitude atmospheric turbulence. To this end, three turbulence models of increasing fidelity, namely, the one-dimensional von Kármán model, the two-dimensional Kaimal model and full three-dimensional wind fields extracted from large-eddy simulations (LES) are used to simulate ambient turbulence near the ground. Load calculations and flight trajectory predictions are conducted for a representative high-aspect-ratio wing aircraft, using a fully coupled nonlinear flight dynamics/aeroelastic model, when it operates in background atmospheric turbulence generated by the aforementioned models. Comparison of load envelopes and spectral content, on vehicles of varying flexibility, shows strong dependency between the selected turbulence model and aircraft aeroelastic response (e.g. 58% difference in the predicted magnitude of the wing root bending moment between LES and von Kármán models). This is mainly due to the presence of large flow structures at low altitudes that have comparable dimensions to the vehicle, and which despite the relatively small wind speeds within the Earth boundary layer, result in overall high load events for slow-moving vehicles. Results show that one-dimensional models that do not capture those effects provide fairly non-conservative load estimates and are unsuitable for very flexible airframe design.

atmospheric turbulence↗

The measurement, modeling, and prediction of traction for rocket propellant 1

Traction tests were performed on RP-1, a common kerosene based rocket propellant. Traction data on this fluid are required for purposes of turbopump bearing design, using codes such as SHABERTH. To obtain the traction data, an existing twin disc machine was used, operating under the side slip mode and using elliptical contacts. The range of test variables were: contact peak Hertz stress from 1.0 to 2.0 GPa, disc surface speed from 10 to 50 m/s, fluid inlet temperature from 30 to 70 C, and with a contact aspect ratio of 1.7. The resulting traction curves were reduced to fundamental fluid property parameters using the Johnson and Tevaarwerk traction model. Theoretical traction predictions were performed by back substitution of the fundamental properties into the traction model. Comparison of the predicted with the measured curves gives a high degree of confidence in the correctness of the traction model. For purposes of input to the NASA SHABERTH program, the traction model was next used to predict the expected traction of RP-1 under line contact conditions.

Tevaarwerk, J. L.↗

The measurement, modelling and prediction of traction forces in a rocket propellant

Traction tests were performed on RPI, a common kerosene-based rocket propellant. Traction data on this fluid are required for purposes of turbopump bearing design, using such codes as SHABERTH. To obtain the traction data, an existing twin disk machine was used, operating under the side slip mode and using elliptical contacts. The resulting traction curves were reduced to fundamental fluid property parameters using the Johnson and Tevaarwerk traction model. Theoretical traction predictions were performed by back substitution of the fundamental properties into the traction model. Comparison of the predicted with the measured curves gives a high degree of confidence in the correctness of the traction model.

Tevaarwerk, J. L.↗

A two-fluid approximation for calculating the cosmic microwave background anisotropies

We present a simplified treatment for calculating the cosmic microwave background anisotropy power spectrum in adiabatic models. It consists of solving for the evolution of a two-fluid model until the epoch of recombination and then integrating over the sources to obtain the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy power spectrum. The approximation is useful both for a physical understanding of CMB anisotropies as well as for a quantitative analysis of cosmological models. Comparison with exact calculations shows that the accuracy is typically 10%-20% over a large range of angles and cosmological models, including those with curvature and cosmological constant. Using this approximation we investigate the dependence of the CMB anisotropy on the cosmological parameters. We identify six dimensionless parameters that uniquely determine the anisotropy power spectrum within our approximation. CMB experiments on different angular scales could in principle provide information on all these parameters. In particular, mapping of the Doppler peaks would allow an independent determination of baryon mass density, matter mass density, and the Hubble constant.

Seljak, Uros↗

Primary and secondary ice production: interactions and their relative importance

A discrepancy of up to 5 orders of magnitude between ice crystal and ice nucleating particle (INP) number concentrations was found in the measurements, indicating the potentially important role of secondary ice production (SIP) in the clouds. However, the interactions between primary and SIP processes and their relative importance remain unexplored. In this study, we implemented five different ice nucleation schemes as well as physical representations of SIP processes (i.e., droplet shattering during rain freezing, ice-ice collisional break-up, and rime splintering) in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We ran CESM2 in the single column mode for model comparisons with the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) observations. We found that the model experiments with aerosol-aware ice nucleation schemes and SIP processes yield the best simulation results for the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We further investigated the relative importance of ice nucleation and SIP to ice number and cloud phase as well as interactions between ice nucleation and SIP in the M-PACE single-layer mixed-phase clouds. Our results show that SIP contributes 80 % to the total ice formation and transforms ~30 % of pure liquid-phase clouds simulated in the model experiments without considering SIP into mixed-phase clouds. The SIP is not only a result of ice crystals produced from ice nucleation, but also competes with the ice nucleation by reducing the number concentrations of cloud droplets and cloud-borne dust INPs. Conversely, strong ice nucleation also suppresses SIP by glaciating mixed-phase clouds and thereby reducing the amount of precipitation particles (rain and graupel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗