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DOE OSTI2021

Amines have lower sooting tendencies than analogous alkanes, alcohols, and ethers

While the sooting tendencies of regular hydrocarbons, oxygenates, and complex fuel mixtures have been well-studied, far less research has been devoted to analyzing the influence of fuel-nitrogen on soot formation. The effect of nitrogen on soot formation becomes relevant for diesel fuels with nitrogen-containing additives, as well as biomass or biomass-derived fuels, which can contain up to 30% nitrogen-containing compounds by dry weight. To begin closing these gaps in the literature, the sooting tendencies of 14 C4 and C6 amines were measured. Sooting tendencies were quantified by re-scaling relative soot concentrations measured in fuel-doped methane flames into Yield Sooting Indices (YSI). The relative soot concentrations were measured with line-of-sight spectral radiance, and validation experiments confirmed that the presence of nitrogen in the test compounds did not interfere with this diagnostic. All of these amines had lower sooting tendencies than the structurally analogous hydrocarbons and oxygenates. The sooting tendencies of amine isomers with the same chemical formula varied significantly. Secondary amines with linear substituents were found to offer the lowest sooting propensity, while primary amines with branched substituents were observed to yield the largest sooting tendencies. In conclusion, the relationship between sooting propensity and chemical structure of the amines hints at the complex nature of soot formation, and highlights an interesting and unexplored area of combustion chemistry for further studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Study of Variable Fuel-Air Ratio and Hydrogen Doping in a Rotating Detonation Engine

Rotating detonation engines (RDEs) hold great promise as a technology for powering aviation engines. The pressure gain that results from continuously traversing detonation waves enables high theoretical performance compared to deflagration-based combustion. However, the harsh operating conditions inside an RDE restrict the availability of suitable experimental diagnostics to study these systems in detail and the range of spatial and temporal scales render numerical simulations of these systems difficult. In this study, we have combined adaptive mesh refinement and a robust shock-capturing approach to study RDE systems computationally using the compressible, reactive solver PeleC. Multi-species transport along with compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved in the model along with finite-rate chemistry. Complex geometries are represented using an embedded boundary method with second-order spatial accuracy and the system is evolved in time using a second-order Runge-Kutta method. We present studies of a methane-air RDE system that is doped with varying levels of hydrogen. Our analysis focusses on how fuel mixture and doping levels effect the detonation flame structure and the generation of multiple wave modes.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Temperature and velocity measurements in premixed turbulent flames

Turbulent flame speed data for premixed flames of methane-air, propane-air and ethylene-air mixtures stabilized in grid turbulence are reported and discussed. It is shown that turbulence effects on flame speed cannot be fully correlated by the turbulence length scale and r.m.s. velocity in the cold flow. Rather there appear to be significant flame-flow-turbulence interactions affecting both turbulence level in the reaction zone and measured flame speeds. Results of detailed velocity measurements, including autocorrelations, by laser velocimetry are used to elucidate the nature of these interactions. It is concluded that flame speed experiments must be designed and conducted to provide sufficient information (e.g., boundary conditions) to allow for reconstruction of the flow field and these interactions by modelers if the data are to be of value in turbulent combustion model development and evaluation.

Dandekar, K. V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis of Methanol Production and Methanol-to-Diesel Conversion

Methanol is a strategic chemical and intermediate in the manufacture of synthetic diesel, due to its versatility, diesel’s compatibility with existing infrastructure, and their role in industrial and transport applications. Conventional production methods for methanol, primarily steam methane reforming (SMR), rely on natural gas and are subject to the price variability due to market conditions and geopolitical events. They are also associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Methanol and synthetic diesel production could be integrated with nuclear energy to stabilize fuel prices and insulate pricing from outside geopolitical events due to the relative stability of nuclear fuel as compared to natural gas. This could lead to increased transportation fuel security, reliability and resilience. An added benefit is the abatement of emissions when substituting nuclear energy for conventional energy from natural gas. This report presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis(LCA) framework which was developed to evaluate the GHG emissions reduction potential associated with nuclear integrated methanol production, methanol-to-diesel upgrading, and end-use combustion. Gate-to-gate methanol production and cradle-to-grave emissions were evaluated in, starting with a business-as-usual (BAU) SMR-based methanol plant, and then considering stepwise nuclear integration. Methanol-to-diesel (MTD) conversion was evaluated accounting for nuclear energy integration and hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) using electricity either from the grid or from a dedicated nuclear power system. This multi-step process diverts stable and reliable nuclear energy into the transportation sector by upgrading low energy dense natural gas into liquid fuels fully compatible with existing infrastructure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Novel Approach for Modeling Chemical Reaction in Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program

The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a computer code developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for analyzing steady state and transient flow rates, pressures, temperatures, and concentrations in a complex flow network. The code, which performs system level simulation, can handle compressible and incompressible flows as well as phase change and mixture thermodynamics. Thermodynamic and thermophysical property programs, GASP, WASP and GASPAK provide the necessary data for fluids such as helium, methane, neon, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, oxygen, argon, carbon dioxide, fluorine, hydrogen, water, a hydrogen, isobutane, butane, deuterium, ethane, ethylene, hydrogen sulfide, krypton, propane, xenon, several refrigerants, nitrogen trifluoride and ammonia. The program which was developed out of need for an easy to use system level simulation tool for complex flow networks, has been used for the following purposes to name a few: Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump Secondary Flow Circuits, Axial Thrust Balance of the Fastrac Engine Turbopump, Pressurized Propellant Feed System for the Propulsion Test Article at Stennis Space Center, X-34 Main Propulsion System, X-33 Reaction Control System and Thermal Protection System, and International Space Station Environmental Control and Life Support System design. There has been an increasing demand for implementing a combustion simulation capability into GFSSP in order to increase its system level simulation capability of a liquid rocket propulsion system starting from the propellant tanks up to the thruster nozzle for spacecraft as well as launch vehicles. The present work was undertaken for addressing this need. The chemical equilibrium equations derived from the second law of thermodynamics and the energy conservation equation derived from the first law of thermodynamics are solved simultaneously by a Newton-Raphson method. The numerical scheme was implemented as a User Subroutine in GFSSP.

Sozen, Mehmet↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Nanosecond-Pulsed Spark Discharge and Flame Kernel Evolution

Dilute combustion, either using exhaust gas recirculation or with excess air, is considered a promising strategy to improve the thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines. However, the dilute air-fuel mixture, especially under intensified turbulence and high-pressure conditions, poses significant challenges for ignitability and combustion stability, which may limit the attainable efficiency benefits. In-depth knowledge of the flame kernel evolution to stabilize ignition and combustion in a challenging environment is crucial for effective engine development and optimization. To date, a comprehensive understanding of ignition processes that result in the development of fully predictive ignition models usable by the automotive industry does not yet exist. Spark-ignition consists of a wide range of physics that includes electrical discharge, plasma evolution, joule-heating of gas, and flame kernel initiation and growth into a self-sustainable flame. In this study, an advanced approach is proposed to model spark-ignition energy deposition and flame kernel growth. To decouple the flame kernel growth from the electrical discharge, a nanosecond-pulsed high-voltage discharge is used to trigger spark-ignition in an optically accessible small ignition test vessel with a quiescent mixture of air and methane. Initial conditions for the flame kernel, including its thermodynamic state and species composition, are derived from a plasma-chemical equilibrium calculation. The geometric shape and dimension of the kernel are characterized using a multi-dimensional thermal plasma solver. Here, the proposed modeling approach is evaluated using a high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics procedure to compare the simulated flame kernel evolution against flame boundaries from companion Schlieren images.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of spatiotemporal plasma power distribution on the modeling of ignition kernel evolution in quiescent and turbulent methane/air mixtures

Abstract The present work improves a phenomenological plasma-assisted combustion model by integrating the spatiotemporal distribution of plasma power density, thereby considering the evolution of plasma streamers in the modeling, and subsequently, better predicting the ignition kernel evolution. The improved phenomenological model is validated against experiments representing the plasma discharge and post-discharge ignition kernel evolution. Specifically, the new model demonstrates a more accurate prediction of ultrafast gas heating and O 2 dissociation during the plasma discharge, compared to the original model. In addition, the new model is found to closely match the experimental pressure wave and heated channel profiles post-discharge without the need for tuning the energy deposition (unlike the original model), highlighting its accuracy of post-discharge ignition kernel dynamics. The improved phenomenological model is then employed to investigate ignition kernel evolution for a stoichiometric methane-air discharge across various discharge gap configurations. Simulations reveal a non-uniform temperature and streamer distribution progressing from the electrode tips toward the center, contrasting uniform cylindrical discharges previously described in the original model. Streamer propagation is observed to be faster for larger gaps when maintained at the same average electric field for different discharge gaps. The tendency of smaller gaps to produce detached toroidal ignition kernels is observed, while larger gaps promote cylindrical and attached ignition kernels. Interactions between successive ignition kernels from consecutive discharges varied significantly, with the smallest gap (1 mm) promoting the quenching of the preceding ignition kernel due to the initial kernel–kernel separation. The intermediate gap (2 mm) promotes detached kernel growth. In contrast, in the largest gap (4 mm), kernels consistently combine and expand attached to electrodes. The impact of homogeneous isotropic turbulence is also explored, showing the persistence of ignition kernels early on but eventually quenching due to enhanced radical and heat losses with pronounced turbulence intensity.

Johnson, Praise Noah↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time and space resolved diagnostics for plasma thermal-chemical instability of fuel oxidation in nanosecond plasma discharges

Here, an instability in a nanosecond pulsed dielectric barrier discharge plasma occurring in methane–oxygen–argon mixtures is experimentally observed and measured by 1D time-resolved in situ electric field measurements. This instability, which seems to be created by the positive feedback between plasma kinetics and plasma-assisted low temperature fuel oxidation, is studied using electric field induced second harmonic generation and direct ICCD imaging. The rapid formation of streamers from an originally uniform discharge appears to be caused by the chemical kinetics of plasma-assisted low temperature methane oxidation, which may be resulting in a new type of plasma instability: a thermal-chemical instability. The results also revealed that the occurrence of this possible thermal-chemical instability in a reactive flow drastically changes the plasma properties by forming multiple secondary discharges and possibly leads to micron-sized non-uniform electric distributions. Single shot uncalibrated measurements of the electric field of the micron sized streamers appears to show much greater strengths than the average electric field. Furthermore, one-dimensional data analysis shows the positive feedback loop between the streamers and the low temperature plasma assisted oxidation chemistry in the plasma thermal-chemical instability. The present finding advances the understanding plasma instability growth and provides a new way to control plasma uniformity in plasma-assisted combustion and plasma fuel reforming.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2012

Oxygen-Methane Thruster

An oxygen-methane thruster was conceived with integrated igniter/injector capable of nominal operation on either gaseous or liquid propellants. The thruster was designed to develop 100 lbf (approximately 445 N) thrust at vacuum conditions and use oxygen and methane as propellants. This continued development included refining the design of the thruster to minimize part count and manufacturing difficulties/cost, refining the modeling tools and capabilities that support system design and analysis, demonstrating the performance of the igniter and full thruster assembly with both gaseous and liquid propellants, and acquiring data from this testing in order to verify the design and operational parameters of the thruster. Thruster testing was conducted with gaseous propellants used for the igniter and thruster. The thruster was demonstrated to work with all types of propellant conditions, and provided the desired performance. Both the thruster and igniter were tested, as well as gaseous propellants, and found to provide the desired performance using the various propellant conditions. The engine also served as an injector testbed for MSFC-designed refractory combustion chambers made of rhenium.

Pickens, Tim↗

NASA NTRS2003

Large-scale Distribution of CH4 in the Western North Pacific: Sources and Transport from the Asian Continent

Methane (CH4) mixing ratios in the northern Pacific Basin were sampled from two aircraft during the TRACE-P mission (Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific) from late February through early April 2001 using a tunable diode laser system. Described in more detail by Jacob et al., the mission was designed to characterize Asian outflow to the Pacific, determine its chemical evolution, and assess changes to the atmosphere resulting from the rapid industrialization and increased energy usage on the Asian continent. The high-resolution, high-precision data set of roughly 13,800 CH4 measurements ranged between 1602 ppbv in stratospherically influenced air and 2149 ppbv in highly polluted air. Overall, CH4 mixing ratios were highly correlated with a variety of other trace gases characteristic of a mix of anthropogenic industrial and combustion sources and were strikingly correlated with ethane (C2H6) in particular. Averages with latitude in the near-surface (0-2 km) show that CH4 was elevated well above background levels north of 15 deg N close to the Asian continent. In the central and eastern Pacific, levels of CH4 were lower as continental inputs were mixed horizontally and vertically during transport. Overall, the correlation between CH4 and other hydrocarbons such as ethane (C2H6), ethyne (C2H2), and propane (C3H8) as well as the urban/industrial tracer perchloroethene (C2Cl4), suggests that for CH4 colocated sources such as landfills, wastewater treatment, and fossil fuel use associated with urban areas dominate regional inputs at this time. Comparisons between measurements made during TRACE-P and those of PEM-West B, flown during roughly the same time of year and under a similar meteorological setting 7 years earlier, suggest that although the TRACE-P CH4 observations are higher, the changes are not significantly greater than the increases seen in background air over this time interval.

Bartlett, Karen B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Regeneratively Cooled Liquid Oxygen/Methane Technology Development

The National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) has identified Liquid Oxygen (LOX)/Liquid Methane (LCH4) as a potential propellant combination for future space vehicles based upon exploration studies. The technology is estimated to have higher performance and lower overall systems mass compared to existing hypergolic propulsion systems. NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in concert with industry partner Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) utilized a Space Act Agreement to test an oxygen/methane engine system in the Summer of 2010. PWR provided a 5,500 lbf (24,465 N) LOX/LCH4 regenerative cycle engine to demonstrate advanced thrust chamber assembly hardware and to evaluate the performance characteristics of the system. The chamber designs offered alternatives to traditional regenerative engine designs with improvements in cost and/or performance. MSFC provided the test stand, consumables and test personnel. The hot fire testing explored the effective cooling of one of the thrust chamber designs along with determining the combustion efficiency with variations of pressure and mixture ratio. The paper will summarize the status of these efforts.

Robinson, Joel W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Regeneratively Cooled Liquid Oxygen/Methane Technology Development Between NASA MSFC and PWR

Robinson, Joel W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Intensified Electro-Catalytic Process for Production of Formic Acid from Power Plant CO 2 Emissions (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to develop and test a novel electro-catalytic method for the production of high-value formic acid from coal-derived CO 2 as a strategy to offset the cost of CO 2 capture. Formic acid is currently produced from the conversion of higher-order carbon products such as methane and/or methanol. This electro-catalytic CO 2 reduction process utilizes a highly selective catalyst in a flow-through reactor design to maximize the formic acid production rate. The specific objectives of this proposed study were to; 1) produce and screen highly selective engineered CO 2 reducing catalysts capable of exclusively producing formic acid; 2) immobilize the catalyst within a flow process to continually produce formic acid and increase catalyst lifetime; and 3) assess the stability of the electrocatalyst during long-term operation. The project involved the development and testing of an engineered catalyst to selectively reduce CO 2 directly and exclusively to formic acid. After the best-performing catalyst was selected, it was immobilized and tested inside a flow-through reactor at UK CAER using realistic conditions expected from CO 2 produced during coal combustion and separated by a CO 2 capture plant.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2013

Vaporization and Zonal Mixing in Performance Modeling of Advanced LOX-Methane Rockets

Initial modeling of LOX-Methane reaction control (RCE) 100 lbf thrusters and larger, 5500 lbf thrusters with the TDK/VIPER code has shown good agreement with sea-level and altitude test data. However, the vaporization and zonal mixing upstream of the compressible flow stage of the models leveraged empirical trends to match the sea-level data. This was necessary in part because the codes are designed primarily to handle the compressible part of the flow (i.e. contraction through expansion) and in part because there was limited data on the thrusters themselves on which to base a rigorous model. A more rigorous model has been developed which includes detailed vaporization trends based on element type and geometry, radial variations in mixture ratio within each of the "zones" associated with elements and not just between zones of different element types, and, to the extent possible, updated kinetic rates. The Spray Combustion Analysis Program (SCAP) was leveraged to support assumptions in the vaporization trends. Data of both thrusters is revisited and the model maintains a good predictive capability while addressing some of the major limitations of the previous version.

Williams, George J., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active oxygen species in heterogeneously catalyzed oxidation reactions

Active oxygen species generation in heterogeneously catalyzed hydrocarbon oxidation reactions have not been fully characterized. There is little consensus as to which the most active or selective species are. However, electron localization at a single oxygen atom—rather than shared over several—is necessary to activate very stable hydrocarbons like methane. This paper presents an overview of oxygen species formed on various catalytic surfaces and their role in hydrocarbon oxidation reactions. Since limitations of analytical methods are a significant bottleneck for understanding and engineering active oxygen species, approaches for characterizing and quantifying active oxygen are discussed. While several methods are effective for describing certain oxygen species, there is no method that comprehensively characterizes all active oxygen species. Here, the most promising approach is oxygen isotope exchange coupled with infrared spectrometry and inline mass spectrometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2017

Energy Efficient Microlith-Based Catalytic Reactor and Recuperator for Air Quality Control Applications

Precision Combustion, Inc. (PCI) and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been developing, characterizing, and optimizing high temperature catalytic oxidizers (HTCO) based on PCI’s patented Microlith technology to meet the requirements of future extended human spaceflight explorations. Previous efforts focused on integrating PCI’s HTCO unit with a compact, simple recuperative heat exchanger to reduce the overall system size and weight. Significant improvement was demonstrated over traditional approaches of integrating the HTCO with an external recuperative heat exchanger. While the critical target performance metrics were achieved, the thermal effectiveness of PCI’s recuperator remained a potential area of improvement to further reduce the energy requirements of the integrated system. Using the same material combinations and an improved recuperator design, the redesigned prototype has experimentally demonstrated 20 – 30% reduction (flow dependent) in steady state power consumption compared to the earlier prototype without compromising the destruction efficiency of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Moreover, design modifications and improvements allow our redesigned prototype to be more easily manufactured compared to traditional brazed plate-fin recuperator designs. The redesigned prototype was delivered to MSFC for validation testing. Here, we report and discuss the performance of the improved prototype HTCO unit with a high efficiency recuperative heat exchanger based on testing at PCI and MSFC. The device is expected to provide a reliable and robust means of disposing of trace levels of methane and VOCs by oxidizing them into carbon dioxide and water in order to maintain clean air in enclosed spaces, such as crewed spacecraft cabins.

Vilekar, Saurabh A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Anode for Internal Reforming and Thermal Management in Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is an efficient and clean electrical power generation system compared to conventional combustion based technologies with energy efficiency reaching as high as 85-90% in co-generation mode (electricity and heat). Other advantages of SOFCs are hybridization, modularity of construction, small CO 2 foot print per kWh of generated electricity and fuel flexibility. Hydrocarbons present in the gaseous fuel is utilized in SOFCs by internal or external reforming. There are two different internal reforming concepts: Direct Internal Reforming (DIR) and Indirect Internal Reforming (IIR). For DIR operation, the endothermic reforming reaction and the exothermic reaction from the oxidation reaction are operated together in the single unit eliminating the requirement for a separate fuel reformer. This configuration also simplifies the overall system design, making SOFC more attractive and efficient means of producing electrical power. The main advantage of the DIR type of operation is that the H 2 or CO consumption by the electrochemical reaction could directly promote the conversion of methane at the anode side of the fuel cell resulting in high conversion and high efficiency. The DIR operation, however, requires an anode material that has desired dual catalytic (hetero and electro) properties for reforming reaction and electrochemical reactions. The anode materials also need to remain resistant to carbon formation at the operating temperature and atmosphere with stable cell performance. Another requirement is to match the reforming reactions and electrochemical reactions to avoid local cooling or overheating, which can result in mechanical failure due to thermally induced stresses. Direct internal reforming (DIR) of hydrocarbon fuels simplifies the overall SOFC system design making it more attractive and efficient for producing electrical power. Low cost alloy anodes for distributed internal reforming of methane and other hydrocarbon fuels offer increased fuel-flexibility, reliability, and long term performance stability of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). The research program examined modification of the chemical compositions and microstructure of high entropy alloy (HEA) anode materials using thermochemical calculations and process simulation and modeling to achieve distributed reforming over the entire anode to eliminate hot zones. Cell fabrication and testing of the HEA anodes using button cell configuration has been performed to demonstrate the advantages of new anode over traditional Ni-YSZ anodes for distributed reforming and carbon free operation. Technical accomplishments include identification and synthesis of HEA carbon-resistant anode, demonstration of reduction in reforming rate confirmed by GC and modelling data validating effectiveness for thermal management in cell/stacks, electrochemical testing of HEA anode in single cell (HEA-GDC||YSZ||LSM-YSZ) and Characterization of pretest and posttest anode materials by TEM and SEM-EDS confirming carbon-free operation.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗