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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the MagLim++ Lens Sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3x2pt cosmology analysis. The 3x2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection (Balrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O($10^8$) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the $n(z)$ uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. This analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

Giannini, G. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the preprocessing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and TempestRemap offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multistep processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow and impede research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing-front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative, and monotonicity-preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran-compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-the-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral element atmosphere and finite volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing the Range and Reliability of the Spacer Layer Imaging Method

The spacer layer imaging method (SLIM) is widely used to measure the thickness of additive and lubricant films, in lubricant development and evaluation, and for fundamental research into elastohydrodynamic lubrication and tribofilm formation mechanisms. The film thickness measurement, as implemented on several popular tribometers, provides powerful, non-destructive in-situ mapping of film topography with nanometre-scale height sensitivity. However, the results can be highly sensitive to experimental procedure, machine condition, and image analysis, in some cases reporting unphysical film thickness trends. The prevailing image analysis techniques make it challenging to interrogate these errors, often hiding their multivariate nonlinear behaviour from the user by spatial averaging. Herein, several common ‘silent errors’ in the SLIM measurement, including colour matching to incorrect fringe orders, and colour drift due to the optical properties of the system or film itself, are discussed, with examples. A robust suite of novel a priori and a posteriori methods to address these issues, and to improve the accuracy and reliability of the measurement, are also presented, including a novel, computationally inexpensive circle-finding algorithm for automated image processing. In combination, these methods allow reliable mapping of films up to at least 800 nm in thickness, representing a significant milestone for the utility of SLIM applied to elastohydrodynamic contact.

EHL film geometry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sub-melt nanosecond pulsed-laser induced densification and strain-field relaxation in single-crystal diamond

Dislocations and polishing-induced defect networks in synthetic diamond introduce local strain fields and broaden Raman features, limiting performance in optical, thermal, and electronic applications. Laser annealing is emerging as a promising approach to repair surface and near-surface defects in diamond without entering the melt regime, yet surface densification, defect-state modification, and associated structural changes have not been well quantified. In this work, we show that sub-melt nanosecond pulsed-laser annealing (PLA) induces near-surface densification and defect-mediated strain relaxation in single-crystal Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) diamond. Single- and two-pulse PLA were applied, and structural evolution was quantified using co-registered ISO 25,178 white-light interferometry, depth-resolved Raman spectroscopy, and cross-sectional STEM with geometric phase analysis (GPA). Across a 5 × 6 grid (n = 30), responsive regions exhibit large reductions in local slope (Sdq 45–65%), developed area (Sdr 60–90%), height spread (Sp, Sz 30–65%), void volume (Vv 57–60%), and roughness amplitude (Sa, Sq 48–57%), consistent with densification of ∼4–6.5 nm. Raman profiling shows narrowing of the diamond line and improved spectral uniformity to depths of ∼2–3 μm. Given that the Raman probing depth significantly exceeds the densified layer thickness, this response is interpreted as consistent with long-range strain-field redistribution originating from the near-surface region. STEM-GPA strain maps further support this interpretation, showing smoother strain fields, suppressed hotspots, and redistribution of localized strain concentrations following PLA. These results are consistent with defect-mediated strain relaxation and densification-driven modification of the near-surface energy state. The approach provides a scalable pathway for improving near-surface structural quality in diamond relevant to electronic, photonic, and quantum applications.

Areal surface metrology (ISO 25,178)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low Space Harmonic Content Windings (LSHWs) Applied to Improve the Pareto Front in Design Optimization of Electric Machines

In design optimization of high performance electric machines where the power density is increasingly a key metric, it is often desirable to maximize the average torque output within a given volume. However, if a smooth output is also required, the torque ripple may become a hurdle as it tends to increase with the average torque for conventional windings. A direct benefit of low space harmonic content windings (LSHWs), featuring the suppression or elimination of targeted non-working orders in the winding magnetomotive force (MMF), is the torque ripple reduction. This paper provides a detailed analysis of torque ripple pairs and the space-time harmonic order mapping, with concise results that applies to both distributed windings and fractionalslot concentrated windings (FSCWs) of any slot/pole combination. Metamodel-based optimizations are performed to compare two LSHWs with a conventional winding. Improved Pareto fronts are validated, which confirms higher torque producing capabilities at various torque ripple thresholds for LSHWs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building Alternative Indices of Socioeconomic Status for Population Modeling in Data-Sparse Contexts (Short Paper)

Population modeling requires clear definitions of socioeconomic status (SES) to ensure overall estimate accuracy and locate potentially underserved subpopulations. This presents a challenge as SES can be measured in myriad ways and for divergent purposes, and the data required to calculate these metrics may be lacking, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs). To support more refined SES measurement, we explore improvements upon the Demographic and Health Survey’s (DHS) Wealth Index (DHS-WI) using alternative characterizations of SES based on multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical clustering. We produce the MCA-derived metrics first on a full suite of household economic, demographic, and dwelling variables, then on a reduced set of occupant-only SES characteristics. We explore the utility of these metrics relative to DHS-WI based on their ability to 1) differentiate DHS household types and 2) identify mixtures of SES levels within DHS samples and mapped at high spatial resolution. We find that our full suite MCA yields more clearly defined SES segments and that our reduced MCA delineates occupant SES most clearly, suggesting potential pathways to improve upon the DHS-WI in future population modeling efforts for LMICs.

Cunningham, Angela↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engineering the fracture resistance of 2H-transition metal dichalcogenides using vacancies: An in-silico investigation based on HRTEM images

Vacancy engineering of 2H-transition metal dichalcogenides (2H-TMDs) has recently attracted great attention due to its potential to fine-tune the phonon and opto-electric properties of these materials. From a mechanical perspective, this symmetry-breaking process typically reduces the overall crack resistance of the material and adversely affects its reliability. However, vacancies can trigger the formation of heterogeneous phases that synergistically improve fracture properties. In this study, using MoSe2 as an example, we characterize the types and density of vacancies that can emerge under electron irradiation and quantify their effect on fracture. Molecular dynamic (MD) simulations, employing a re-parameterized Tersoff potential capable of accurately capturing bond dissociation and structural phase changes, reveal that isolated transition metal monovacancies or chalcogenide divacancies tend to arrest the crack tip and hence enhance the monolayer toughness. In contrast, isolated chalcogenide monovacancies do not significantly affect toughness. The investigation further reveals that selenium vacancy lines, formed by high electron dose rates, alter the crack propagating direction and lead to multiple crack kinking. Using atomic displacements and virial stresses together with a continuum mapping, displacement, strain, and stress fields are computed to extract mechanistic information, e.g., conditions for crack kinking and size effects in fracture events. The study also reveals the potential of specific defect patterns, “vacancy engineering,” to improve the toughness of 2H-TMDs materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting future well performance for environmental remediation design using deep learning

Here in this study, we developed a deep learning (DL) framework with a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) to predict well performance and thereby assist future environmental remediation design. Such prediction of extraction well performance at designated locations is critical for configuring pump-and-treat (P&T) well network design and operation, setting reasonable target closure dates for overall remedying, and estimating remedy costs. The framework is developed with operational and monitoring data routinely collected during P&T remedy operations, including well extraction and injection rates as well as in situ contaminant concentrations. Traditionally, the collected data were rarely used for purposes other than assessing past well performance and the accuracy of the conceptual site model. However, recent advances in data-driven computational approaches enable better use of the large datasets to inform future well performance, enhance site characterization, and improve remediation planning. In this study, we established a DL framework to integrate transient three-dimensional contaminant plumes and multiple aquifer properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and hydrostratigraphic maps) to identify characteristic patterns controlling and representing extraction well mass recovery, aiming at providing future mass recovery estimates for existing wells and candidate wells at any proposed locations. We evaluated our framework by using a realistic synthetic dataset generated from a well-calibrated flow and transport model used in the 200 West Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The multi-channel feature in our framework allows integration of various types and temporal densities of training datasets for DL model development. Overall, we found that the trained DL model achieved an accuracy of over 90% in ranking extraction well performance in validation datasets, and over 80% in predicting high-performance-ranking well locations. This data-informed approach provides a flexible tool to support adaptive site management, streamline decision-making, and potentially reduce remediation time and costs. Our DL framework can be used as a filtering tool to improve the current P&T network optimization design by reducing the number of candidate well locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Zn‐Doped P‐Type InAs Nanocrystal Quantum Dots

Abstract Doped heavy metal‐free III–V semiconductor nanocrystal quantum dots (QDs) are of great interest both from the fundamental aspects of doping in highly confined structures, and from the applicative side of utilizing such building blocks in the fabrication of p–n homojunction devices. InAs nanocrystals (NCs), that are of particular relevance for short‐wave IR detection and emission applications, manifest heavy n‐type character poising a challenge for their transition to p‐type behavior. The p‐type doping of InAs NCs is presented with Zn – enabling control over the charge carrier type in InAs QDs field effect transistors. The post‐synthesis doping reaction mechanism is studied for Zn precursors with varying reactivity. Successful p‐type doping is achieved by the more reactive precursor, diethylzinc. Substitutional doping by Zn 2+ replacing In 3+ is established by X‐ray absorption spectroscopy analysis. Furthermore, enhanced near infrared photoluminescence is observed due to surface passivation by Zn as indicated from elemental mapping utilizing high‐resolution electron microscopy corroborated by X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy study. The demonstrated ability to control the carrier type, along with the improved emission characteristics, paves the way towards fabrication of optoelectronic devices active in the short‐wave infrared region utilizing heavy‐metal free nanocrystal building blocks.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting fault slip via transfer learning

Abstract Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly, primarily due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10’s-100’s of years and geophysical data typically exist for only a portion of an earthquake cycle. Sparse data presents a serious challenge to training machine learning models for predicting fault slip in Earth. Here we describe a transfer learning approach using numerical simulations to train a convolutional encoder-decoder that predicts fault-slip behavior in laboratory experiments. The model learns a mapping between acoustic emission and fault friction histories from numerical simulations, and generalizes to produce accurate predictions of laboratory fault friction. Notably, the predictions improve by further training the model latent space using only a portion of data from a single laboratory earthquake-cycle. The transfer learning results elucidate the potential of using models trained on numerical simulations and fine-tuned with small geophysical data sets for potential applications to faults in Earth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulations and Experimental Verifications of an Algorithm for Radiation Source Mapping and Navigational Path Generation

Accurate and efficient mapping and localization of both ionizing and non-ionizing radiation sources are important across many different fields. As such, a versatile mapping and navigational path generation algorithm, which can be applied to any point source measurements that follow an inverse-square characteristic, was developed using non-linear least squares methods. Forty thousand simulations were performed on the algorithm, which located sources successfully in a 10 m × 10 m × 10 m three-dimensional space with a success rate of over 80% across different noise functions, given a proportional constant of 10 to 1,000. The algorithm was also verified experimentally with small-scale radioactive decontamination of a 70 cm × 70 cm surface and localization of a lost Wi-Fi router in a 70 m × 70 m open field. One hundred twenty-one measurements were taken from each experiment, which were then fed into the algorithm for navigation. For the radioactive 137Cs source, the estimated locations were within 7 cm × 7 cm of the answer in 79.3% of the scenarios, while the Wi-Fi router was located to within 7 m × 7 m in 57.9% of the tests. In general, the method requires much less information and data than a geographically comprehensive survey and thus shows a lot of potential for practical applications, such as lost source retrieval with unmanned aerial vehicles, small-scale decontamination, mapping undocumented Wi-Fi routers or radio towers, and radiation simulation with radio signals. Here, the different failure modes, desirable features, and potential improvements were also identified but remain as future work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Redshift calibration of the MagLim++ lens sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3 x 2pt cosmology analysis. The 3 x 2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection ( B alrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O(10 8 ) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the n(z) uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. Here, this analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

dark energy↗
DOE OSTI2020

QTL analysis of salt tolerance in Sorghum bicolor during whole‐plant growth stages

Abstract To study the salt tolerance genetics of sorghum, 181 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) were used to locate quantitative trait loci (QTLs) underlying salt stress adaptability. Six traits, namely, plant height (PH), stem diameter (SD), total biomass (TB), stem fresh weight (SFW), juice weight (JW) and Brix, were investigated under normal and salt stress conditions in two years. A total of 53 QTLs for the six traits under both conditions and their corresponding salt tolerance index (STI) were detected and phenotypic variation explained (PVE) ranged from 4.16% to 20.42%. Six of the QTLs, qTB6 , qSFW9 , qJW9 , qBrix2 , qBrix10 and qSTI‐Brix9, were the main effect QTLs controlling salt tolerance and had a PVE more than 10%. qSFW9 and qJW9 colocalized in the same marker interval as SB5069‐UGSM18 and had PVEs of 17.70% and 14.20%, respectively, with positive effects from L‐Tian. QTL clusters controlling PH, TB, STI‐TB, SFW and JW were consistently mapped in the marker interval of Xcup19‐SB4177 on chromosome 7. These locations might serve as target sites for marker‐assisted selection (MAS) in improving salt tolerance of sorghum.

Wang, Hailian↗
DOE OSTI2020

ATLAS: a Snakemake workflow for assembly, annotation, and genomic binning of metagenome sequence data

Background: Metagenomics and metatranscriptomics studies provide valuable insight into the composition and function of microbial populations from diverse environments, however the data processing pipelines that rely on mapping reads to gene catalogs or genome databases for cultured strains yield results that underrepresent the genes and functional potential of uncultured microbes. Recent improvements in sequence assembly methods have eased the reliance on genome databases, thereby allowing the recovery of genomes from uncultured microbes. However, configuring these tools, linking them with advanced binning and annotation tools, and maintaining provenance of the processing continues to be challenging for researchers. Results: Here we present ATLAS, a software package for customizable data processing from raw sequence reads to functional and taxonomic annotations using state-of-the-art tools to assemble, annotate, quantify, and bin metagenome and metatranscriptome data. Genome-centric resolution and abundance estimates are provided for each sample in a dataset. ATLAS is written in Python and the workflow implemented in Snakemake; it operates in a Linux environment, and is compatible with Python 3.5+ and Anaconda 3+ versions. The source code for ATLAS is freely available, distributed under a BSD-3 license. Conclusions: ATLAS provides a user-friendly, modular and customizable Snakemake workflow for metagenome and metatranscriptome data processing; it is easily installable with conda and maintained as open-source on GitHub at https://github.com/metagenome-atlas/atlas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrification Options for Multi-Family Water Heating in Cold Climates - Final Report

In multi-family buildings, large water storage tanks in centralized domestic hot water (DHW) systems can serve as thermal energy storage (TES) batteries to mitigate grid impact. These systems offer demand shift and efficiency benefits, significantly reducing peak power consumption, particularly in cold climates. This study evaluates the load-shifting benefits of a centralized heat pump water heater (HPWH) system equipped with a CO2 heat pump in multi-family buildings through simulation. The heat pump system and water storage tank are sized using design-day sizing. A finite-element-based stratified tank model and CO2 heat pump performance map from a commercial DHW product are used. Annual simulations are conducted to assess the benefits of the centralized DHW system for energy efficiency improvements, load shifting, and emission reductions. These simulations incorporate utility tariffs and marginal grid emission data from Los Angeles and Chicago. In Los Angeles, using a water tank as a thermal battery achieves 7.4% utility cost savings and 10.2% emission reduction. In Chicago, compared to HPWH conventional operation without preheating, TES-enabled central HPWH provides 15% utility cost savings and 13% emission reduction. The case study demonstrates that the demand reduction potential of central CO2 HPWHs is significant in cold climate regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Quantum Computing Technologies in Power System Optimization

As modern power grids increasingly integrate variable renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and energy storage systems, classical optimization techniques are facing unprecedented challenges. This review examines the emerging application of quantum computing to overcome these challenges in power system optimization, including optimal power flow (OPF), unit commitment (UC), economic dispatch (ED), and intelligent switching and topology optimization (IS-TO). Recent research has introduced various quantum methodologies—such as gate-based, annealing-based, variational algorithms, and quantum-inspired algorithms—to address the combinatorial complexity inherent in grid reconfiguration and energy management. The review summaries the quantum algorithms, quantum devices and the power system test cases, highlighting hybrid quantum–classical strategies that leverage the complementary strengths of both paradigms. Some quantum advantages have been observed, including theoretical speedup, accurate simulation results, scalable qubit usage, efficient QUBO mapping. In particular, the review emphasizes the importance of integrating quantum optimization techniques with classical control frameworks, these hybrid approaches demonstrate the potential to improve real-time grid management and operational reliability. A significant portion of the analysis is devoted to the practical limitations of current quantum devices. Present-day quantum hardware, operating in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, remains highly sensitive to noise and limited in qubit connectivity, which constrains the scale and accuracy of implemented algorithms. The review delves into specific challenges such as the need for qubit-efficient encoding techniques and error mitigation strategies that are critical for handling real-world grid optimization problems. In addition, the work draws attention to the performance discrepancies between theoretical quantum speedups and experimental validations, underscoring the importance of rigorous benchmark studies using representative power grid test cases. In summary, this review highlights both the promise and limitations of quantum computing for power system optimization. It provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art technologies, categorizes recent advancements in algorithm design, and discusses practical considerations for implementation, and serves as an informative resource on current research. Future research directions include developing robust hybrid frameworks, advancing qubit-efficient formulations, and scaling up experimental demonstrations to confirm the theoretical advantages of quantum methods in large-scale power system operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating collapsible plasmonic gaps on near-field probes for polarization-resolved mapping of plasmon-enhanced emission in 2D material

Scanning near-field optical microscopy (SNOM) is an important technique used to study the optical properties of material systems at the nanoscale. In previous work, we reported on the use of nanoimprinting to improve the reproducibility and throughput of near-field probes including complicated optical antenna structures such as the ‘campanile’ probe. However, precise control over the plasmonic gap size, which determines the near-field enhancement and spatial resolution, remains a challenge. Here, we present a novel approach to fabricating a sub-20 nm plasmonic gap in a near-field plasmonic probe through the controlled collapse of imprinted nanostructures using atomic layer deposition (ALD) coatings to define the gap width. The resulting ultranarrow gap at the apex of the probe provides a strong polarization-sensitive near-field optical response, which results in an enhancement of the optical transmission in a broad wavelength range from 620 to 820 nm, enabling tip-enhanced photoluminescence (TEPL) mapping of 2-dimensional (2D) materials. We demonstrate the potential of this near-field probe by mapping a 2D exciton coupled to a linearly polarized plasmonic resonance with below 30 nm spatial resolution. This work proposes a novel approach for integrating a plasmonic antenna at the apex of the near-field probe, paving the way for the fundamental study of light-matter interactions at the nanoscale.

Zhou, Junze (ORCID:000000020682767X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗