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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23): Appendix H: Instron Uncertainty Calculations

This document discusses the uncertainty of measurements associated with the Instron system and the resulting uncertainty in the acquired measurements and calculated information. The primary parameters measured during the Instron test include the applied load and specimen deflection. The associated primary calculated parameters are the maximum beam deflection at the rod’s axial center and modulus of elasticity. Secondary calculated parameters include specimen stress and strain amplitudes, as well as flexural rigidity. The uncertainty associated with the primary and secondary calculated parameters was investigated based on the known uncertainty in the measured parameters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Three-Dimensional Heat Flux and Thermal Analysis of Angled Tungsten Samples on DIII-D

ITER-grade tungsten and dispersoid-strengthened tungsten samples with the top surface angled at ~15° towards the incident plasma flux were exposed to 9 H-mode discharges with edge-localized modes (ELMs) in the lower divertor of DIII-D tokamak using the Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES). Surface damage included cracking and flaking of material on the two samples farthest away from the plasma strike point, and significant melting of the two samples closest to the strike point. Heat flux and thermal analysis tools new to DIII-D have been applied to better understand this material response and to help optimize the exposure conditions for future experiments. SMITER field-line tracing simulations based on IRTV data and EFIT equilibria estimate an average inter-ELM perpendicular heat flux, 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM , on the angled surfaces of 10.1 – 19.6 MW/m² for a majority of the 9 discharges, increasing to 15.6 – 24.5 MW/m² for the single, higher-power shot where samples melted. Fast camera data showed shallow intra-ELM melting and re-solidification, which transitioned to bulk inter-ELM melting with melt motion in the 𝐽⃗ 𝑥 𝐵⃗ direction. About 50% of the protruding volume of the most affected sample was displaced via melt-motion. SIERRA thermal modeling software was able to reproduce an onset time of melting consistent with fast camera data and final sample conditions, within < 200 ms. Maximum surface temperatures of 3122 K and 2787 K are estimated for the samples farthest away from the strike point, while the closest samples achieve melting at 4067 ms and 4750 ms into the ~5000 ms plasma exposure. A +10% increase in both the SMITER 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM calculations and the estimated ELM heat loads 𝑞⊥, 𝐸LM was required to achieve this result, which is within the uncertainty of the diagnostic data but likely accounts for non-ideal geometry effects plus other physics uncertainties not included in this first iteration of modeling. This work provided valuable estimates of the 3D temperature evolution to help better understand the observed surface morphology and internal recrystallization of samples, which are discussed in detail in a complementary manuscript [1]. Benchmarking efforts with more diagnosed DIII-D experiments are underway to further refine the SMITER and SIERRA models for DiMES. Future use of these tools will enable researchers to precisely target heat flux exposure conditions in DIII-D to test, but not exceed, the thermomechanical limitations of novel plasma-facing materials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

IEA Wind Task 49: Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays

The commercial-scale deployment of floating offshore wind (FOW) projects is expected to take place in a diverse range of sites that may differ significantly from existing fixed-bottom projects. FOW farms are particularly sensitive to the water depth and the meteorological and oceanographic (metocean) and geotechnical conditions at the project site due to the wave-induced system motions and loads as well as the anchoring system constraints imposed by the seafloor conditions. Uncertainty around the site conditions will permeate through all aspects of project design, leading to suboptimal and overly conservative designs, increased costs, and adversely affected performance. As FOW expands into a global industry, metocean and geotechnical conditions will increasingly vary for projects located in different geographic regions or in far-from-shore, deep-water sites. This study represents the outputs of work package 1 of International Energy Agency Wind Task 49, which focuses on the integrated design of floating wind arrays. The primary goal of this study is to establish the type of parameters and constraints required to characterize FOW array reference sites; provide a realistic and publicly available set of reference site conditions to the FOW community as a baseline set of data for individual research projects; identify and categorize any critical gaps in the existing data or methodologies required to define reference site characteristics; and inform and support the design of reference FOW arrays. A building block concept was developed for synthesizing reference sites for the design of FOW arrays. The building blocks include three classes of site conditions focusing on the techno-economic design of FOW projects: metocean conditions, seabed conditions, and coastal infrastructure. All reference site data produced and collected in this study are publicly available.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Stochastic Framework for Estimating Load Profiles at EV Fast Charging Stations

This paper formulates a methodology for estimating the average daily load profiles of EV fast charging stations over a planning horizon of five to ten years. The developed methodology uses historic vehicle registration data, state-level EV adoption targets, seasonal driving patterns, local demographics, competition, and traffic volume information to predict average station usage. Through Monte Carlo simulations, an average daily load profile is obtained for each month in the planning horizon, and prediction uncertainty is quantified. The proposed framework will facilitate the accurate estimation of energy and demand costs incurred by the charging station over the planning period, thereby informing return-on-investment calculations.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sierra/SD – Verification Test Manual – 5.22

Verification and validation (V&V) of scientific computing programs are important at Sandia National Labs due to the expanding role of computational simulation in managing the United States nuclear stockpile. The complexities of structural response calculations used to analyze physical problems, the varieties of codes applied to the calculations, and the importance of accurate predictions when assessing field conditions demand confidence in the consistency and accuracy of computer codes. Confidence in the accuracy of the predictions arising from computer simulations must ultimately be gained through verification and validation. The Sierra salinas structural dynamics analysis code, Sierra/SD, is used at the DOE Laboratories, and in several DOD projects. The roles of Sierra/SD in the qualification of weapon systems and components for normal and hostile environments throughout the Stockpile-to-Target Sequence include to, • Redesign weapon components. • Certify weapon components and systems for target environments such as hypersonic vehicles. • Certify that components will survive the thermal mechanical shock loads associated with hostile environments. • Evaluate current stockpile issues, including issues associated with uncertainty quantification. • Address many other problems that are encountered in stockpile management. The Sierra/SD verification plan is described, and an evolving set of key verification tests are described in detail. The verification tests ensure the correctness of the mathematics and numerical algorithms associated with functionality describing engineering phenomena. Development is in accordance with a set of tailored Software Quality Engineering (SQE) practices. SQE practices guide the overall verification and validation effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Analytical design and performance studies of the nuclear light bulb engine

Analytical studies were conducted to investigate in detail the heat balance characteristics of the nuclear light bulb engine. Distributions of energy deposition to all engine components from the fission process, conduction and convection, and thermal radiation were considered. Where uncertainties in basic data or heat transfer characteristics were encountered, ranges of heat loads were calculated and reference values were selected. The influence of these heat loads on engine performance, space radiator requirements, and cooling sequence and cooling circuit designs was determined. The analyses resulted in revisions to the previously reported reference engine characteristics, principally in the heat loads to some engine components and in the cooling sequence. These revisions were incorporated in the engine dynamics digital computer simulation program. No significant changes occurred in the dynamic response of the engine to perturbations in fuel injection rate, reactivity or exhaust nozzle area.

Rodgers, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Description of a Computer Program Written for Approach and Landing Test Post Flight Data Extraction of Proximity Separation Aerodynamic Coefficients and Aerodynamic Data Base Verification

A computer program written to calculate the proximity aerodynamic force and moment coefficients of the Orbiter/Shuttle Carrier Aircraft (SCA) vehicles based on flight instrumentation is described. The ground reduced aerodynamic coefficients and instrumentation errors (GRACIE) program was developed as a tool to aid in flight test verification of the Orbiter/SCA separation aerodynamic data base. The program calculates the force and moment coefficients of each vehicle in proximity to the other, using the load measurement system data, flight instrumentation data and the vehicle mass properties. The uncertainty in each coefficient is determined, based on the quoted instrumentation accuracies. A subroutine manipulates the Orbiter/747 Carrier Separation Aerodynamic Data Book to calculate a comparable set of predicted coefficients for comparison to the calculated flight test data.

Homan, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Reliability-Based Life Assessment of Stirling Convertor Heater Head

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA's deep-space missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures, stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. A preliminary assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the material behavior was also performed. Creep failure resistance of the thin-walled heater head could show variation due to small deviations in the manufactured thickness and in uncertainties in operating temperature and pressure. Durability prediction and reliability of the heater head are affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to include the effects of these uncertainties in predicting the probability of survival of the heater head under mission loads. Furthermore, it may be possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of small temperature excursions of short duration. These rare incidences would affect the creep strain rate and, therefore, the life. This paper addresses the effects of such rare incidences on the reliability. In addition, the sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified, and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Heater head reliability is being quantified with data from NASA Glenn Research Center's accelerated benchmark testing program.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Large Eddy/Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Simulations of CUBRC Base Heating Experiments

ven with great advances in computational techniques and computing power during recent decades, the modeling of unsteady separated flows, such as those encountered in the wake of a re-entry vehicle, continues to be one of the most challenging problems in CFD. Of most interest to the aerothermodynamics community is accurately predicting transient heating loads on the base of a blunt body, which would result in reduced uncertainties and safety margins when designing a re-entry vehicle. However, the prediction of heat transfer can vary widely depending on the turbulence model employed. Therefore, selecting a turbulence model which realistically captures as much of the flow physics as possible will result in improved results. Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) models have become increasingly popular due to their good performance with attached flows, and the relatively quick turnaround time to obtain results. However, RANS methods cannot accurately simulate unsteady separated wake flows, and running direct numerical simulation (DNS) on such complex flows is currently too computationally expensive. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) techniques allow for the computation of the large eddies, which contain most of the Reynolds stress, while modeling the smaller (subgrid) eddies. This results in models which are more computationally expensive than RANS methods, but not as prohibitive as DNS. By complimenting an LES approach with a RANS model, a hybrid LES/RANS method resolves the larger turbulent scales away from surfaces with LES, and switches to a RANS model inside boundary layers. As pointed out by Bertin et al., this type of hybrid approach has shown a lot of promise for predicting turbulent flows, but work is needed to verify that these models work well in hypersonic flows. The very limited amounts of flight and experimental data available presents an additional challenge for researchers. Recently, a joint study by NASA and CUBRC has focused on collecting heat transfer data on the backshell of a scaled model of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). Heat augmentation effects due to the presence of cavities and RCS jet firings were also investigated. The high quality data produced by this effort presents a new set of data which can be used to assess the performance of CFD methods. In this work, a hybrid LES/RANS model developed at North Carolina State University (NCSU) is used to simulate several runs from these experiments, and evaluate the performance of high fidelity methods as compared to more typical RANS models. .

Salazar, Giovanni↗
NASA NTRS2016

Lunar Entry Downmode Options for Orion

For Exploration Missions 1 and 2, the Orion capsules will be entering the Earth's atmosphere with speeds in excess of 11 km/s. In the event of a degraded Guidance, Navigation, and Control system, attempting the nominal guided entry may be inadvisable due to the potential for failures that result in a loss of vehicle (or crew, when crew are aboard). In such a case, a method of assuring Earth capture, water landing, and observence of trajectory constraints (heating, loads) is desired. Such a method should also be robust to large state uncertainty and variations in entry interface states. This document will explore four approaches evaluated and their performance in ensuring a safe return of the Orion capsule in the event of onboard system degradation.

Smith, Kelly M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO)

TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) was selected in 2012 by NASA as the first Earth Venture Instrument, for launch between 2018 and 2021. It will measure atmospheric pollution for greater North America from space using ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy. TEMPO observes from Mexico City, Cuba, and the Bahamas to the Canadian oil sands, and from the Atlantic to the Pacific, hourly and at high spatial resolution (approximately 2.1 kilometers N/S by 4.4 kilometers E/W at 36.5 degrees N, 100 degrees W). TEMPO provides a tropospheric measurement suite that includes the key elements of tropospheric air pollution chemistry, as well as contributing to carbon cycle knowledge. Measurements are made hourly from geostationary (GEO) orbit, to capture the high variability present in the diurnal cycle of emissions and chemistry that are unobservable from current low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites that measure once per day. The small product spatial footprint resolves pollution sources at sub-urban scale. Together, this temporal and spatial resolution improves emission inventories, monitors population exposure, and enables effective emission-control strategies. TEMPO takes advantage of a commercial GEO host spacecraft to provide a modest cost mission that measures the spectra required to retrieve ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), formaldehyde (H2CO), glyoxal (C2H2O2), bromine monoxide (BrO), IO (iodine monoxide),water vapor, aerosols, cloud parameters, ultraviolet radiation, and foliage properties. TEMPO thus measures the major elements, directly or by proxy, in the tropospheric O3 chemistry cycle. Multi-spectral observations provide sensitivity to O3 in the lowermost troposphere, substantially reducing uncertainty in air quality predictions. TEMPO quantifies and tracks the evolution of aerosol loading. It provides these near-real-time air quality products that will be made publicly available. TEMPO will launch at a prime time to be the North American component of the global geostationary constellation of pollution monitoring together with the European Sentinel-4 (S4) and Korean Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) instruments.

tropospheric measurement suite↗
NASA NTRS2019

Dynamic Testing of a High-Specific-Torque Concentric Magnetic Gear

This paper presents initial measurements of the efficiency of NASA's 2nd magnetic gear prototype. A detailed discussion of the test rig's design and capabilities was presented, along with a thorough uncertainty analysis. The reported uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals that include the effects of temperature and parasitic loads. The prototype's response was measured at output speeds between 124 rpm and 744 rpm for a controlled output torque of 10 Nm (8% of the prototype's maximum torque). After correcting for tare losses, the prototype's efficiency was found to decrease from 90.0% to 83.0% as speed increased. If the efficiency is extrapolated to a typical operating condition (85% of maximum torque) using the good assumption that energy loss is approximately independent of the transmitted torque, the expected efficiency would be 99.0% to 98.4%, which exceeds the state of the art for these speeds.

magnetic gears↗
NASA NTRS2019

Dynamic Testing of a High-Specific-Torque Concentric Magnetic Gear

This presentation presents measurements of the efficiency of NASA's 2nd magnetic gear prototype. A detailed discussion of the test rig used to make these measurements was presented, including a thorough uncertainty analysis. The reported uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals that include the effects of temperature and parasitic loads. The prototype's response was measured at output speeds between 124 rpm and 744 rpm for a controlled output torque of 10 Nm (8% of the prototype's maximum torque). After correcting for tare losses, the prototype's efficiency was found to decrease from 90.0% to 83.0% as speed increased. If the efficiency is extrapolated to a typical operating condition (85% of maximum torque) using the good assumption that energy loss is approximately independent of the transmitted torque,the expected efficiency would be 99.0% to 98.4%, which exceeds the state of the art for these speeds.

Scheidler, Justin↗
NASA NTRS2019

High Speed Testing of a High Efficiency Concentric Magnetic Gear

This presentation presents measurements of the efficiency of NASA's 2nd magnetic gear prototype. A detailed discussion of the test rig used to make these measurements was presented, including a thorough uncertainty analysis. The reported uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals that include the effects of temperature and parasitic loads. The prototype's response was measured at output speeds between 124 rpm and 744 rpm for a controlled output torque of 10 Nm (8% of the prototype's maximum torque). After correcting for tare losses, the prototype's efficiency was found to decrease from 90.0% to 83.0% as speed increased. If the efficiency is extrapolated to a typical operating condition (85% of maximum torque) using the good assumption that energy loss is approximately independent of the transmitted torque,the expected efficiency would be 99.0% to 98.4%, which exceeds the state of the art for these speeds.

Scheidler, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗