Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “lifetime prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A novel method for quantifying irradiation damage in nuclear graphite using Raman spectroscopy

Raman spectroscopy has long been used in studying irradiation damage in carbon/graphite materials. It is however unclear if the measurements from different types of materials are directly comparable. Further, decoupling the contribution from irradiation temperature and fluence to the total damage in nuclear graphite possessing irradiation damage gradient is currently not readily feasible as it requires a complete set of test reactor irradiation experiments over the relevant temperature and fluence range. A novel methodology has therefore been proposed and developed to quantify total irradiation damage evolution at crystal level based on graphite Raman G-band position shift. Specifically, G-band positions derived from a large number of spectra collected from the fractured surface of microfine-grained POCO ZXF-5Q graphite possessing proton irradiation damage gradient were plotted with open literature Raman data on HOPG, BEPO (AXGP graphite), PCEA and IG-110 graphite as a function of dpa. The total damage level within 2σ beam radius in this POCO graphite was estimated to be equivalent to ~2–5 dpa at ~350–370 °C. Derived G-band positions were then mapped to the three-stage amorphization trajectory model indicating beam centre area has entered the second stage, i.e., transitioning from nanocrystalline graphite into amorphous carbon. G-band position relative shift (ΔG) curve with a ‘turn-around’ peak as a function of total damage can be used for in-service lifetime prediction. Importantly, the developed methodology has the potential to ‘unify’ total damage levels across different grades of nuclear graphite caused by ion, neutron and proton irradiation at different temperatures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Inspection of Advanced Manufacturing via Process-Scale Digital Twins (Abbreviated Report)

Inspection and certification comprise the most significant bottlenecks in advanced manufacturing for NNSA applications, often requiring far more time and resources than the fabrication of the parts themselves. Traditional methods, such as manual review and X-ray computed tomography, are not only slow and costly, but also struggle to provide a clear connection between manufacturing instructions and the final performance of critical components. This gap limits both the agility and assurance needed to support the modernization and safety of the United States nuclear stockpile. In response, our Strategic Initiative established a digital twin framework that integrates realtime process monitoring, automated data analysis, and immersive virtual reality collaboration into a unified inspection pipeline. By leveraging data from sensors, machine instructions, and imaging, we created high-fidelity virtual models of manufactured parts that could be rapidly analyzed and certified. This approach was first demonstrated with Direct Ink Write, and then extended to other manufacturing settings, including conventional (or “subtractive”) manufacturing and to predict the end of life performance of parts per the aging and lifetimes programs. The result is a transformational capability: inspection times have been reduced by a factor of 120,000 without loss of accuracy and while simultaneously improving traceability and confidence in part quality. This framework not only streamlines certification for critical applications, but also positions the national security enterprise to respond more flexibly to emerging challenges, supporting agile manufacturing and digital engineering practices across a broad range of mission-relevant domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

Estimating the Lifetimes of Nickel/Cadmium Cells

Equation based on model of flaw growth. Model assumes cell fails by growth of preexisting flaws. Flaws described by three important quantities: total number of flaws, distribution of flaw sizes and rate of flaw growth. When flaw reaches critical size failure occurs. Flaw concept, in addition to providing ready explanation for reduced lifetime, predicts two important charateristics: statistical variability of lifetime data and dependence of lifetime on volume of sample.

Fedors, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of the convective evaporation of nondilute clusters of drops

The penetration distance of an outer flow into a drop cluster volume is the critical, evaporation mode-controlling parameter in the present model for nondilute drop clusters' convective evaporation. The model is found to perform well for such low penetration distances as those obtained for dense clusters in hot environments and low relative velocities between the outer gases and the cluster. For large penetration distances, however, the predictive power of the model deteriorates; in addition, the evaporation time is found to be a weak function of the initial relative velocity and a strong function of the initial drop temperature. The results generally show that the interior drop temperature was transient throughout the drop lifetime, although temperature nonuniformities persisted up to the first third of the total evaporation time at most.

Bellan, J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

PVDeg: Development of a Streamlined Tool for PV Degradation Modeling

The photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 to 50 years. research efforts aim to achieve this while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades. This puts considerable pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. The tool will simplify many of the routine computational operations that are common to many degradation studies. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. This repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined modeling and experiments to predict corrosion and embrittlement in dual-phase stainless steels within the MARMOT framework

Extending service of Light Water Reactors (LWRs) to beyond 60 years will demand high integrity of materials and components in the reactors. The accurate evaluation and prediction of materials performance under anticipated operating conditions are of particular importance for ensuring the safety of nuclear power plants over their extended lifetime. Stainless steels are extensively used as structural alloys in light water reactor (LWR) systems because of their excellent combination of mechanical properties and corrosion resistance. Austenitic stainless steel welds and cast austenitic stainless steels (CASS) contain significant amounts of ferrite ~5-30% and are ubiquitous in LWR piping (elbows, pump casings, valves) and internal structural components. During their lifetime, these components are subjected to thermal aging at the temperature range of 288-327°C for pressurized water reactors (PWR). A phase transformation within the ferrite phase of these materials leads to embrittlement and degradation in corrosion resistance, which undermines the materials selection criteria.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaporation of Water Nanodroplets on Heated Surfaces: Does Nano Matter?

While experiments and continuum models have provided a relatively good understanding of the evaporation of macroscopic water droplets, elucidating how sessile nanodroplets evaporate is an open question critical for advancing nanotechnological applications where nanodroplets can play an essential role. In this study, using molecular dynamics simulations, we find that evaporating nanodroplets, in contrast to their macroscopic counterparts, are not always in thermal equilibrium with the substrate and that the vapor concentration on the nanodroplet surface does not reach a steady state. As a result, the evaporative behavior of nanodroplets is significantly different. Regardless of hydrophobicity, nanodroplets do not follow conventional evaporation modes but instead exhibit dynamic wetting behavior characterized by huge, non-equilibrium, isovolumetric fluctuations in the contact angle and contact radius. For hydrophilic nanodroplets, the evaporation rate, controlled by the vapor concentration, decays exponentially over time. Hydrophobic nanodroplets follow stretched exponential kinetics arising from the slower thermalization with the substrate. The evaporative half-lifetime of the nanodroplets is directly related to the thermalization time scale and therefore increases monotonically with the hydrophobicity of the substrate. Finally, the evaporative flux profile along the nanodroplet surface is highly nonuniform but does not diverge at the contact line as the macroscopic continuum models predict.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Electron Transfer at H-Terminated p-Si Electrolyte Interfaces: Large Photovoltages under Inversion Conditions

Here, photovoltages for hydrogen terminated p-Si(111) in an acetonitrile electrolyte were quantified with methyl viologen [1,1'-(CH 3 ) 2 -4,4'-bipyridinium](PF 6 ) 2 , abbreviated MV 2+ , and [Ru(bpy) 3 ](PF 6 ) 2 , where bpy is 2,2'-bipyridine, that respectively undergo two and three one-electron transfer reductions. The reduction potentials, E°, of the two MV 2+ reductions occurred at energies within the forbidden bandgap, while the three [Ru(bpy) 3 ] 2+ reductions occurred within the continuum of conduction band states. Bandgap illumination resulted in reduction that were more positive than that measured with a degenerately doped n + -Si demonstrative of a photovoltage, Vph, that increased in the order: MV 2+/+ (260 mV) < MV +/0 (400 mV) < Ru 2+/+ (530 mV) ~ Ru +/0 (540 mV) ~ Ru 0/– (550 mV). Pulsed 532 nm excitation generated electron-hole pairs whose dynamics were nearly constant under depletion conditions and increased markedly as the potential was raised or lowered. A long wavelength absorption feature assigned to conduction band electrons provided additional evidence for the presence of an inversion layer. Collectively, the data reveal that the most optimal photovoltage, as well at the longest electron-hole pair lifetime and the highest surface electron concentration, occur when E° lies energetically within the unfilled conduction band states where an inversion layer is present. The bell-shaped dependence for electron-hole pair recombination with the surface potential was predicted by the time-honored SRH model providing a clear indication that this interface provides access to all four bias conditions, i.e., accumulation, flat band, depletion, and inversion. The implications of these findings for photocatalysis applications and solar energy conversion are discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Stress and efficiency studies in EFG

The goals of this program were: (1) to define minimum stress configurations for silicon sheet growth at high speeds; (2) to quantify dislocation electrical activity and their limits on minority carrier diffusion length in deformed silicon; and (3) to study reasons for degradation of lifetime with increases in doping level in edge-defined film-fed growth (EFG) materials. A finite element model was developed for calculating residual stress with plastic deformation. A finite element model was verified for EFG control variable relationships to temperature field of the sheet to permit prediction of profiles and stresses encountered in EFG systems. A residual stress measurement technique was developed for finite size EFG material blanks using shadow Moire interferometry. Transient creep response of silicon was investigated in the temperature range between 800 and 1400 C in strain and strain regimes of interest in stress analysis of sheet growth. Quantitative relationships were established between minority carrier diffusion length and dislocation densities using Electron Beam Induced Current (EBIC) measurement in FZ silicon deformed in four point bending tests.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1992

Free volume model for molecular weights of polymers

A free volume model has been developed for determining molecular weights of linear polymers. It is based on the size of free volume cells in two geometries of poly(arylene ether ketone)s. Free volume cell sizes in test samples were measured using positron lifetime spectroscopy. The molecular weights computed from free volume cell sizes are in good agreement with the values measured by gel permeation chromatography, with a low angle laser light scattering photometer as the detector. The model has been further tested on two atactic polystyrene samples, where it predicted the ratio of their molecular weights with reasonable accuracy.

Singh, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Review of MLI Behavior at Low Temperatures and Application to L'Ralph Thermal Modeling

In this presentation, the theory and application of multi-layer insulation (MLI) behavior, with a specific focus on lower temperature applications (<180K), is discussed. Many parameters can affect the performance of MLI (i.e. construction method, size, materials, grounding, penetrations, etc.) and these factors can make the prediction of MLI performance a challenge. Often, MLI performance is measured in terms of estar, and analysts commonly apply bias between a high and a low estar value. However, this approach can be dangerous when a mission goes through a wide range of temperatures during its lifetime (such as our mission, L'Ralph) due to temperature dependence of estar, with estar values increasing exponential as temperatures get colder. Many research papers and correlations have been published about MLI behavior, showing how estar values can rapidly rise at low temperatures. These correlations also show how the different parameters of MLI can affect and amplify this growth. Various correlations are presented as well as how L'Ralph is approaching the MLI problem. L'Ralph thermal model is built with Thermal Desktop (TD), and a discussion of how to apply the temperature dependent MLI behavior within TD is included. The presentation also includes reviews of different methods of mitigating heat leaks through MLI, touching briefly on topics such as integrated-MLI (IMLI), Dacron vs silk netting, and using multi-layered meshes to improve estar performance.

MLI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cathodic Protection Modeling for Hanford Underground Double-Shell Tank Farms

Hanford stores millions of gallons of radioactive and chemically hazardous waste from the production of weapon materials in tank farms consisting of underground carbon-steel storage tanks surrounded by reinforced concrete. Six of these Hanford tank farms use double-shell storage tanks (DSTs). The DST farms were constructed from 1968 to 1986 with a planned 40–50 year design life, so some are already operating beyond their initial life expectancy. Ultrasonic testing (UT) has indicated significant thinning on the bottom of the secondary (outer) liner of these tanks, believed to arise from groundwater intrusion driving concrete side corrosion. There is no direct access to the steel/concrete interface between the tank and the concrete pad, making it difficult to apply a chemical-based mitigation strategy or to conduct repairs, but cathodic protection (CP) is a possible method to inhibit further concrete-side corrosion. Hanford already uses CP to protect below grade steel piping within the tank farms and connected to the tanks, but this system was not designed to protect the tank bottoms. CP design must account for the structures surrounding the DSTs, including the steel reinforcing bars (rebar) within the concrete pad and vault, various process lines, and the existing CP system. In this study, finite element analysis (FEA) modeling was carried out to simulate CP protection of 1) a single tank and CP anode to develop options for modeling the rebar and to compare to a simpler circuit model and 2) the entire Hanford AN tank farm as a representative example consisting of seven tanks, associated piping, and both existing and new CP anodes. Both circuit and FEA models predict that significant protective current could be delivered to the bottoms of the tanks with the addition of tank-protection anodes below the depth of the tanks. Simulations with only the existing pipe-protection anodes active confirmed that only a very small current to the tank bottoms is predicted under present conditions. Multiple simplified representations of the dome and wall rebar were tested to reduce the computational complexity of the tank-farm simulations, resulting in modeling the rebar as edge elements with a prescribed effective circumference that matches the real rebar surface area. The geometry of the rebar is also simplified into horizontal hoops around the tank walls and radial rebar over the dome with increased effective circumference to retain the target surface area. This simplification was found to greatly reduce the complexity and solution time of the models without large changes in current distributions, especially to the tank bottom. A range of values were tested for model parameters such as soil and concrete resistivities and polarization resistance to investigate their impact on the current and electric potential distributions. Depending on the parameters used, FEA simulations predict some risk of overprotection, particularly on the piping system; since overprotection can also lead to surface damage associated with hydrogen gas generation at the interface (e.g. hydrogen embrittlement or damage to coatings), this needs to be considered when refining the design of the new CP system. Comparison between the FEA models and the circuit model representation demonstrated that the circuit model could not match the predicted FEA current distribution, even when using the exact same surface areas. This discrepancy appeared to be at least partly attributable to the impact of the relative positions of the tank components and anodes to each other and to the ground surface. The FEA model accounts for the relative positions since it solves the governing equations in three dimensions, but the circuit model cannot account for the positioning. In particular, the circuit model underpredicts the current to the tank bottom and overpredicts the current to the dome compared to FEA for the baseline geometry. The FEA models omitted the electrically isolated rebar in the bottom concrete slab. However, a circuit based stray current model estimated that only 2.1% of the total current through the slab would stray into the rebar, corresponding to ~0.21 A for a target current density of 2 mA/ft2 to the tank bottom. The estimated corrosion driven by this amount of stray current is predicted to yield a lifetime of >400 years for the minimum rebar diameter, assuming an acceptable cross-section area loss of 10%.

d'Entremont, Anna [Savannah River National Laborat↗
NASA NTRS1983

Modeling of G333.6-0.2 as a spherical H II region

The radio and IR observations of the H II region G333.6-0.2 are matched with a detailed spherical model with a density distribution which has a uniform-density core of radius 0.05 pc, a power-law intermediate zone, and a uniform-density halo. A stellar radiation field is required that is somewhat different from those predicted by available model atmospheres. Of the stellar models of Kurucz, the Teff = 34,000 K and log g = 3.5 model best fits the observed ratio of helium to hydrogen recombination lines. A good fit to all the observations in obtained with an S(2+) ionizing flux which is a factor of 20 times less than predicted by the Kurucz atmosphere. Current model atmospheres may not be appropriate because a single stable star with Teff = 34,000 K fails by at least an order of magnitude to produce the ionizing luminosity. The small radius of the constant-density core implies a short dynamical lifetime of approximately 5000 years for this spherical model; this may indicate that a nonspherical blister geometry is more appropriate for this H II region.

Rubin, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive electrochemical diagnosis of failure mechanisms in aqueous zinc batteries

The early detection of secondary reactions that affect the life and performance of zinc manganese oxide batteries requires a shift from conventional time-consuming and often destructive procedures to rapid lifetime-predictive techniques. In this work, an electrochemical approach is employed to elucidate independent signatures for four common types of failure mechanisms in zinc manganese dioxide (Zn||MnO2) batteries—namely, the loss of zinc inventory, the loss of active material at the cathode, electrolyte depletion, and increased cell impedance. Our findings, specific to coin cell configurations, reveal that each induced failure mechanism can be distinctively modeled and identified based on responses from the rest voltage and columbic-efficiency data for prompt detection. For instance, electrolyte depletion response manifests a distinctive abrupt (>80 %) decrease in columbic efficiency (CE) and charge-rest voltage (Vc) while the discharge-rest voltage remained constant at ~1.3 V. Furthermore, electrolyte rejuvenation of the cell increased the CE to >95 % and restored Vc from ~0.3 to >1.7 V. Recovery experiments and reference performance tests demonstrated consistency between electrochemical descriptors and their associated failure mechanisms. Further, the outcomes of this work provide valuable insights and data models for some of the dominant failure mechanisms present in zinc manganese battery chemistries, which are beneficial to accelerated early-lifetime diagnosis and advancement of Zn batteries development.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing and modeling the mechanical behavior of an anion exchange membrane for carbon capture applications

A new direct air capture (DAC) technology uses a moisture swing (MS) process with anion exchange membranes, potentially offering a more energy-efficient way to remove CO₂ from the air. In this MS process, the membrane absorbs CO₂ as it dries and releases it when water is added. Understanding the mechanical behavior of these membranes is essential for improving the design and efficiency of DAC systems and prolonging sorbent lifetime. This study tested one anion exchange membrane, Fumasep’s FAA-3, under mechanical loading and various temperature and humidity conditions to measure its swelling, stiffness, strength, plastic deformation, and stress relaxation. Experimental results were used to identify a mechanical model for FAA-3 that can be used to predict the material’s nonlinear viscous behavior under various loads and environments. Unlike prior studies that assumed linear elastic behavior, this work incorporates humidity-dependent swelling, thermal expansion, and nonlinear viscoelasticity of FAA-3 in both the experiments and the model.

Direct air capture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pathways to High-Performance Salt Hydrate Thermochemical Energy Storage Materials and Systems

Thermochemical materials (TCMs) based on salt hydrates are promising for thermal energy storage as they combine high energy densities with low reaction temperatures. However, their adoption is hindered by poor structural integrity and degradation under hygrothermal cycling. Storage performance is governed not only by the chemical reaction, but also by the coupled thermo-chemo-mechanical behavior that evolves with cycling. Understanding and controlling this coupling across length scales (material-to-reactor) is necessary to improve TCM stability and lifetime. In this perspective, we discuss the shortcomings of current characterization approaches and emphasize the need for measuring transport properties and structural transformations using in situ techniques that capture the dynamic evolution of these materials. We also outline opportunities for multiscale modeling frameworks that link thermodynamics and mechanics, enabling predictive evaluation of composite architectures designed for cycling stability. We conclude by identifying research questions that must be addressed to transform TCMs into viable energy storage technologies.

Composites↗
NASA NTRS2005

Long-term Measurements of Solar Proton Fluxes (1963-present) and the Subsequent Impact on Stratospheric Constituents

The fluxes of solar protons have been measured by satellites for over forty years (1963-present). Eight Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) satellites measured solar proton fluxes from 1963-1993 and five NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) were used for the period 1994present. These high energy solar protons precipitate on the Earth's polar atmosphere sporadically, especially during solar proton events (SPEs), which typically last a few days. Solar protons with energies greater than 30 MeV are capable of reaching the stratosphere and causing increases in odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOy) constituents at polar latitudes (greater than 60 degrees geomagnetic). The enhanced HOx leads to short-lived ozone depletion (-days) due to the short lifetime of HOx constituents. The enhanced NOy leads to long-lived ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NOy family in the stratosphere. Several very large SPEs (August 1972, August and October 1989, July and November 2000, September and November 2001, and October 2003) over the 1963-2004 time period were simulated in the GSFC two-dimensional chemistry and transport model and were predicted to cause significant polar upper stratospheric ozone depletion greater than 10%, which lasted for several weeks past the events. Several satellite instruments (BUV, SBUV, SBW/2, SAGE II, HALOE, etc.) have shown constituent changes as a result of SPEs. Long-term (greater than 40 year) model simulations of the influence of the solar protons and satellite measurements during and after some of the very large SPEs will be shown.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Life Limiting Behavior in Interlaminar Shear of Continuous Fiber-Reinforced Ceramic Matrix Composites at Elevated Temperatures

Interlaminar shear strength of four different fiber-reinforced ceramic matrix composites was determined with doublenotch shear test specimens as a function of test rate at elevated temperatures ranging from 1100 to 1316 C in air. Life limiting behavior, represented as interlaminar shear strength degradation with decreasing test rate, was significant for 2-D crossplied SiC/MAS-5 and 2-D plain-woven C/SiC composites, but insignificant for 2-D plain-woven SiC/SiC and 2-D woven Sylramic (Dow Corning, Midland, Michigan) SiC/SiC composites. A phenomenological, power-law delayed failure model was proposed to account for and to quantify the rate dependency of interlaminar shear strength of the composites. Additional stress rupture testing in interlaminar shear was conducted at elevated temperatures to validate the proposed model. The model was in good agreement with SiC/MAS-5 and C/SiC composites, but in poor to reasonable agreement with Sylramic SiC/SiC. Constant shear stress-rate testing was proposed as a possible means of life prediction testing methodology for ceramic matrix composites subjected to interlaminar shear at elevated temperatures when short lifetimes are expected.

Choi, Sung R.↗