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At least 397 records · Page 22

Electric field mill network products to improve detection of the lightning hazard

An electric field mill network has been used at Kennedy Space Center for over 10 years as part of the thunderstorm detection system. Several algorithms are currently available to improve the informational output of the electric field mill data. The charge distributions of roughly 50 percent of all lightning can be modeled as if they reduced the charged cloud by a point charge or a point dipole. Using these models, the spatial differences in the lightning induced electric field changes, and a least squares algorithm to obtain an optimum solution, the three-dimensional locations of the lightning charge centers can be located. During the lifetime of a thunderstorm, dynamically induced charging, modeled as a current source, can be located spatially with measurements of Maxwell current density. The electric field mills can be used to calculate the Maxwell current density at times when it is equal to the displacement current density. These improvements will produce more accurate assessments of the potential electrical activity, identify active cells, and forecast thunderstorm termination.

Maier, Launa M.↗

A predictive model for space-based X-ray CCD degradation

The first generation of X-ray telescopes to use Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs) is being launched this decade. With a read noise of a few electrons, CCDs provide Fano-limited spectral resolution across the soft X-ray band (0.1 - 10 keV). However, degradation of resolution due to charge transfer losses becomes noticeable as Charge Transfer Inefficiency (CTI) increases to 10(exp -5). In this paper, we present a model which calculates the effects of radiation damage in low Earth orbit in order to predict CCD lifetimes over which good charge transfer is maintained. The model presented here considers damage mechanisms within the CCD, environmental conditions in which the CCD operates, and experiment shielding. We find that the predicted CTI approaches 10(exp -5) after a one to two year mission for the flight instruments considered here.

Antunes, Alex↗

Co1lisional Grooming Models of the Kuiper Belt Dust Cloud

Debris disks around other stars, like the disks around Fomalhaut, Vega, and Epsilon Eridani, are often described as more massive versions of the Kuiper Belt. But for a long time, it's been hard to test this notion, because grain-grain collisions limit the grain lifetimes and we lacked the tools to model the effects of these collisions on the appearance of the disks. I'll describe a new breakthrough that has allowed us to make 3-D models of grain-grain collisions in debris disks for the first time, and I'll show the latest supercomputer simulations of these systems, illustrating how planets and collisions together sculpt the TNO dust.

Kuchner, Marc↗

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

This thesis presents the on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes four effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for four variables, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie Corinne Scheidt↗

Formation of Outer Planets: Overview

An overview of current theories of planetary formation, with emphasis on giant planets is presented. The most detailed models are based upon observation of our own Solar System and of young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believe to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. According to the prevailing core instability model, giant planets begin their growth by the accumulation of small solid bodies, as do terrestrial planets. However, unlike terrestrial planets, the growing giant cores become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk disspates. The primary questions regarding the core instability model is whether planets with small cores can accrete gaseous enveloples within the lifetimes of gaseous protoplanetary disks. The main alternative giant planet formation model is the disk instability model, in which gaseous planets form directly via gravitational instabilities within protoplanetary disks. Formation of giant planets via gas instability has never been demonstrated for realistic disk conditions. Moreover, this model has difficulty explaining the supersolar abundances of heavy elements in Jupiter and Saturn, and it does not explain the orgin of planets like Uranus and Neptune.

Lissauer, Jack↗

A Novel Technique of Extracting UCN Decay Lifetime from Storage Chamber Measurements Dominated by Scattering Losses

The neutron’s lifetime is a critical parameter in the standard model. Its measurements, particularly measurements using both beamline and ultracold neutron storage techniques, have revealed significant tension. In this work, we review the status of the tension between various measurements, especially in light of the insights provided by the β-decay correlation measurements. We revisit the lifetime measurement in a material storage chamber, dominated by losses from scattering off the walls of the storage chamber. The neutron energy spectra and associated uncertainties were, for the first time, well-characterized using storage data alone. Such models have applications in the extraction of the mean time between wall bounces, which is a key parameter for neutron storage disappearance experiments in search of neutron oscillation. A comparison between the loss model and the number of neutrons stored in a single chamber allowed us to extract a neutron lifetime of τn*=880(+158/−78)stat.(+230/−114)sys.s (68.3% C.I.). Though the uncertainty of this lifetime is not competitive with currently available measurements, the highlight of this work is that we precisely identified the systematic sources of uncertainty that contribute to the neutron lifetime measurements in material storage bottles, namely from the uncertainty in the energy spectra, as well as from the storage chamber surface parameters of the Fermi potential and loss per bounce. In doing so, we highlight the underestimation of the uncertainties in the previous Monte Carlo simulations of experiments using the technique of ultracold neutron storage in material bottles.

Mohanmurthy, Prajwal (ORCID:0000000275737010)↗

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Watkins, T., Jr.↗

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Probing itinerant carrier dynamics at the diamond surface using single nitrogen vacancy centers

Color centers in diamond are widely explored for applications in quantum sensing, computing, and networking. Their optical, spin, and charge properties have extensively been studied, while their interactions with itinerant carriers are relatively unexplored. Here, we show that NV centers situated 10 ± 5 nm of the diamond surface can be converted to the neutral charge state via hole capture. By measuring the hole capture rate, we extract the capture cross section, which is suppressed by proximity to the diamond surface. The distance dependence is consistent with a carrier diffusion model, indicating that the itinerant carrier lifetime can be long, even at the diamond surface. Measuring dynamics of near-surface NV centers offers a tool for characterizing the diamond surface and investigating charge transport in diamond devices.

Physics↗

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magnon damping in the zigzag phase of the Kitaev-Heisenberg- Γ model on a honeycomb lattice

We calculate dispersions and damping of the magnetic excitations in the model that is relevant to a description of the magnetic properties of iridium oxides α-Li 2 IrO 3 and Na 2 IrO 3 , and Ru-based materials such as α-RuCl 3 . Focusing on the parameter regime with the zigzag spin pattern in the ground state that is consistent with experiments, we are able to obtain explicit analytical expressions for magnon energies and eigenstates and go beyond the standard linear spin-wave theory approximation by calculating magnon damping and demonstrating its role in the dynamical structure factor. Here, we show that the magnon damping effects in both Born and self-consistent approximations are very significant, underscoring the importance of nonlinear magnon coupling in interpreting broad features in the neutron-scattering spectra.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

K ∗ (892) ± resonance production in Pb−Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The production of K *⁢(892) ± meson resonance is measured at midrapidity (| y |<0.5) in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{^sNN}$ = 5.02 TeV using the ALICE detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The resonance is reconstructed via its hadronic decay channel K *⁢(892) ± → K $^0_S$⁢π ± . The transverse momentum distributions are obtained for various centrality intervals in the p T range of 0.4-16 GeV/ c . Measurements of integrated yields, mean transverse momenta, and particle yield ratios are reported and found to be consistent with previous ALICE measurements for K *⁢(892) 0 within uncertainties. The p T -integrated yield ratio 2 K *⁢(892) ± ⁢/(⁢ K + + K - ) in central Pb-Pb collisions shows a significant suppression at a level of 9.3σ⁢ relative to pp collisions. Thermal model calculations result in an overprediction of the particle yield ratio. Although both hadron resonance gas in partial chemical equilibrium (HRG-PCE) and MUSIC + SMASH simulations consider the hadronic phase, only HRG-PCE accurately represents the measurements, whereas MUSIC + SMASH simulations tend to overpredict the particle yield ratio. These observations, along with the kinetic freeze-out temperatures extracted from the yields measured for light-flavored hadrons using the HRG-PCE model, indicate a finite hadronic phase lifetime, which decreases with increasing collision centrality percentile. The p T-differential yield ratios 2 K *⁢(892) ±⁢ /(⁢ K + + K - ) and 2 K *⁢(892) ± ⁢/(⁢π + +π - ) are presented and compared with measurements in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV. Both particle ratios are found to be suppressed by up to a factor of five at p T <2.0 GeV/ c in central Pb-Pb collisions and are qualitatively consistent with expectations for rescattering effects in the hadronic phase. The nuclear modification factor ( R AA ) shows a smooth evolution with centrality and is found to be below unity at p T >8 GeV/ c , consistent with measurements for other light-flavored hadrons. The smallest values are observed in most central collisions, indicating larger energy loss of partons traversing the dense medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Natural and Accelerated Evolution of EVA Adhesion Through Intermediate Exposures

Ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) encapsulants comprise the majority of the encapsulants currently in use; much work has been done to understand and model the adhesive characteristics of EVA-encapsulated modules, but limited work has provided reliable insight into adhesion during the intermediate stages of exposure, limiting the ability to validate model predictions in this range. We provide the adhesion energy measurements for EVA adhesion after nearly six years of field aging and 10 000 h of accelerated aging. Both field and accelerated aging reveal a distinct plateau that emerges during the intermediate exposure periods (after one year in the field and after 1000 h in a chamber). At 10 000 h, adhesion within accelerated aged minimodules falls to a level generally seen after long-term field exposures (>15 years). Previous modeling predicted that adhesion would steadily decrease over the lifetime of a module, but these current results uncover an intermediate plateauing trend that is important to accurately modeling the evolution of adhesion and predicting adhesive failure. Based on these findings, three key model refinements concerning the rate of UV-radical formation and subsequent β-scission, the rate and acceleration of hydrolytic depolymerization, and the profile of the plasticity contribution over time are implemented and discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

RAIS Slope Factors for Radionuclides

For a given radionuclide, Slope Factors (SFs) represent the ELCR equivalent per unit intake (i.e., ingestion or inhalation) or external exposure of that radionuclide. These SFs are used to convert a radionuclide concentration in soil, air, water, or foodstuffs to a radiation ELCR. The primary use of SFs, also called risk coefficients, is to compute the ELCR resulting from site-related exposures. This is accomplished by multiplying the route-specific SF by the CDI of each radionuclide of potential concern for each route of exposure. Ingestion and inhalation slope factors are central estimates in a linear model of the age-averaged, lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence (fatal and nonfatal cancer) risk per unit of activity inhaled or ingested, expressed as risk/picocurie (pCi). External exposure SFs are central estimates of lifetime attributable radiation cancer incidence risk for each year of exposure to external radiation from photon-emitting radionuclides distributed uniformly in a thick layer of soil, expressed as risk/year per pCi/gram soil. External exposure SF units can also be risk/year per pCi/square centimeters (cm2) of soil. When combined with site-specific media concentration data and appropriate exposure assumptions, SFs can be used to estimate lifetime cancer risks to members of the general population due to radionuclide exposures. The SFs presented on are updated values from Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 supplement using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 107 decay data. The derivation and values are found in “Calculations of Slope Factors and Dose Coefficients” (ORNL, 2014).

Noto, Katie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

Perspectives of Open-Air Processing to Enable Perovskite Solar Cell Manufacturing

We report high throughput open-air processing techniques for the scalable production of all device and barrier layers for perovskite photovoltaics (PV). This work discusses and resolves some of the most formidable barriers to module-level scaling that the perovskite community has been facing. Our advanced technoeconomic manufacturing analysis indicates that vacuum-based processes with high capital expenditures (CapEx) and low throughputs dominate the cost of production. Open-air fabrication methods offer low CapEx routes to manufacturing, but achieving reproducibility in ambient conditions with varying relative humidity has been a persistent challenge. The use of rapid processing methods with plasma curing to convert films from the solution-state enables reproducibility, moisture immunity, and the highest perovskite PV efficiency produced in open-air. These methods are readily translatable to in-line processing where layers are sequentially deposited without the need for lengthy post-annealing steps that reduce throughput and involve additional equipment. Significant progress is demonstrated in reduced manufacturing costs as perovskites contend as a commercially viable next-generation thin film PV technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fatigue strength reduction model: RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 user manual. Appendix 2: Development of advanced methodologies for probabilistic constitutive relationships of material strength models

FORTRAN programs RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 are documented in the form of a user's manual. Both programs are based on fatigue strength reduction, using a probabilistic constitutive model. The programs predict the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given fatigue strength. The theoretical backgrounds, input data instructions, and sample problems illustrating the use of the programs are included.

Boyce, Lola↗

Theoretical study of the spectroscopy of ZrO

The absorption bands of ZrO have been observed in stars, particularly S stars. Here, theoretical transition probabilities are presented for the dipole-allowed transitions between the six lowest singlet and triplet states of ZrO. The results should be sufficiently reliable to provide opacity data for use in modeling stellar atmospheres. The theoretical radiative lifetime for the e 3Pi state is less than the experimental value as measured by the decay of resonant fluorescence. However, the theoretical electronic transition moments for the gamma system and the B 1Pi - X 1Sigma(+) system are much smaller than those deduced from emission studies. The calculated lifetime for the C 1Sigma(+) state is in excellent agreement with the laser-induced fluorescence studies. The as yet unobserved E 1Phi - A 1Delta band system is found to be relatively strong.

Langhoff, Stephen R.↗