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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

MJO Teleconnections over the PNA Region in Climate Models. Part II: Impacts of the MJO and Basic State

In an assessment of 29 global climate models (GCMs), Part I of this study identified biases in boreal winter MJO teleconnections in anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height over the Pacific–North America (PNA) region that are common to many models: an eastward shift, a longer persistence, and a larger amplitude. In Part II, we explore the relationships of the teleconnection metrics developed in Part I with several existing and newly developed MJO and basic state (the mean subtropical westerly jet) metrics. The MJO and basic state diagnostics indicate that the MJO is generally weaker and less coherent and propagates faster in models compared to observations. The mean subtropical jet also exhibits notable biases such as too strong amplitude, excessive eastward extension, or southward shift. The following relationships are found to be robust among the models: 1) models with a faster MJO propagation tend to produce weaker teleconnections; 2) models with a less coherent eastward MJO propagation tend to simulate more persistent MJO teleconnections; 3) models with a stronger westerly jet produce stronger and eastward shifted MJO teleconnections; 4) models with an eastward extended jet produce an eastward shift in MJO teleconnections; and 5) models with a southward shifted jet produce stronger MJO teleconnections. The results are supported by linear baroclinic model experiments. Our results suggest that the larger amplitude and eastward shift biases in GCM MJO teleconnections can be attributed to the biases in the westerly jet, and that the longer persistence bias is likely due to the lack of coherent eastward MJO propagation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Considering Soil Moisture in Models of Climate Impacts on Child Health in Farming-Centric Countries

Soil moisture reflects the amount of water available to crops in the top layer of soil. As such, considering soil moisture provides important insight into water availability and ultimately crop yields in agricultural settings. In studies of climate change, food security, and health, however, soil moisture is rarely empirically considered despite its connection to crop health and yields. In this project, we aim to advance understanding of climate impacts on food security by incorporating soil moisture into quantitative models of child health. Combining spatially referenced health survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 2005 and 2010 in Senegal and 2007, 2011, and 2014 in Bangladesh, with soil moisture data from the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, we explore the linkages between sub-annual and sub-seasonal climate conditions and child malnutrition in two rainfed agriculture dependent countries—Bangladesh and Senegal. Results suggest that soil moisture, measured on very short time scales, may be associated with reductions in anthropometric weight-for-height z-scores, but the relationship is highly dependent upon geographic context.

Child health↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can a shock-induced phonon up-pumping model relate to impact sensitivity of molecular crystals, polymorphs and cocrystals?

Impact sensitivity engineering of high-energy molecular crystals requires accurate predictive models. For this purpose, the promising multi-phonon based approach is selected, assessing a bit more its strengths and weaknesses. Presently used with high-quality phonon calculations of 22 molecular crystals, using a physics-based criterion to determine the phonon bath extent, the resulting intrinsic shock sensitivity index (SSI) is compared to the most common marker of impact sensitivity, h 50 , as determined from drop-weight impact tests. Selecting a data subset from experiments performed under very similar conditions (2.5 kg hammer with grit and 30–40 mg samples), the model can predict h 50 values for mono-molecular crystals with very good accuracy, including the ability to discriminate the polymorphs of HMX and CL20. This very good agreement validates an initial indirect up-pumping mechanism occurring under these conditions, where the doorway modes also interact with the phonon bath. However, the phonon bath criterion for mono-molecular crystals does not transfer well to cocrystals. Owing to the vibrational coupling of the co-molecules, it seems a broader phonon bath should be considered. Additionally recalling experimental uncertainty and various experimental factors affecting h 50 values for a given compounds, we recommend that the density of the sample, granularity and morphology be systematically considered and reported along with measurements, which will in turn allow for more systematic data and predictive capabilities for sensitivity models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Exponential Luminous Efficiency Model for Hypervelocity Impact into Regolith

The flash of thermal radiation produced as part of the impact-crater forming process can be used to determine the energy of the impact if the luminous efficiency is known. From this energy the mass and, ultimately, the mass flux of similar impactors can be deduced. The luminous efficiency, Eta is a unique function of velocity with an extremely large variation in the laboratory range of under 8 km/s but a necessarily small variation with velocity in the meteoric range of 20 to 70 km/s. Impacts into granular or powdery regolith, such as that on the moon, differ from impacts into solid materials in that the energy is deposited via a serial impact process which affects the rate of deposition of internal (thermal) energy. An exponential model of the process is developed which differs from the usual polynomial models of crater formation. The model is valid for the early time portion of the process and focuses on the deposition of internal energy into the regolith. The model is successfully compared with experimental luminous efficiency data from laboratory impacts and from astronomical determinations and scaling factors are estimated. Further work is proposed to clarify the effects of mass and density upon the luminous efficiency scaling factors

Swift, Wesley R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Exponential Luminous Efficiency Model for Hypervelocity Impact into Regolith

The flash of thermal radiation produced as part of the impact-crater forming process can be used to determine the energy of the impact if the luminous efficiency is known. From this energy the mass and, ultimately, the mass flux of similar impactors can be deduced. The luminous efficiency, eta, is a unique function of velocity with an extremely large variation in the laboratory range of under 6 km/s but a necessarily small variation with velocity in the meteoric range of 20 to 70 km/s. Impacts into granular or powdery regolith, such as that on the moon, differ from impacts into solid materials in that the energy is deposited via a serial impact process which affects the rate of deposition of internal (thermal) energy. An exponential model of the process is developed which differs from the usual polynomial models of crater formation. The model is valid for the early time portion of the process and focuses on the deposition of internal energy into the regolith. The model is successfully compared with experimental luminous efficiency data from both laboratory impacts and from lunar impact observations. Further work is proposed to clarify the effects of mass and density upon the luminous efficiency scaling factors. Keywords hypervelocity impact impact flash luminous efficiency lunar impact meteoroid 1

Swift, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗
NASA NTRS1997

Transient Finite Element Analyses Developed to Model Fan Containment Impact Events

Research is underway to establish an increased level of confidence in existing numerical techniques for predicting transient behavior when the fan of a jet engine is released and impacts the fan containment system. To evaluate the predictive accuracy that can currently be obtained, researchers at the NASA Lewis Research Center used the DYNA 3D computer code to simulate large-scale subcomponent impact tests that were conducted at the University of Dayton Research Institute (UDRI) Impact Physics Lab. In these tests, 20- by 40-in. flat metal panels, contoured to the shape of a typical fan case, were impacted by the root section of a fan blade. The panels were oriented at an angle to the path of the projectile that would simulate the conditions in an actual blade-out event. The metal panels were modeled in DYNA 3D using a kinematic hardening model with the strain rate dependence of the yield stress governed by the Cowper-Simons rule. Failure was governed by the effective plastic strain criterion. The model of the fan blade and case just after impact is shown. By varying the maximum effective plastic strain, we obtained good qualitative agreement between the model and the experiments. Both the velocity required to penetrate the case and the deflection during impact compared well. This indicates that the failure criterion and constitutive model may be appropriate, but for DYNA 3D to be useful as a predictive tool, methods to determine accurate model parameters must be established. Simple methods for measuring model parameters are currently being developed. In addition, alternative constitutive models and failure criteria are being investigated.

Pereira, J. Michael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced grid-forming (GFM) inverter controls, modeling and system impact study for inverter dominated grids

Our main goals in this project are to understand: 1) the stability of the power system with very high penetration of PV or other inverter-based resources (IBR), 2) the interactions among IBRs and traditional generators, and 3) the impact of the GFM inverters on bulk power system. To achieve these goals, we took a holistic research and development approach. First, an impedance-based large system modeling and stability analysis tool was developed to aid the large IBR system small-signal stability analysis. Second, consensus-based control and transient overload ride through were developed to control and coordinate multiple GFM inverters in a large system to maintain transient stability during big grid events. Third, high fidelity electromagnetic transient (EMT) IBR models were developed and integrated into a large reduced WECC model to study the system impact from IBRs. Lastly, extensive validation tests of the GFM control which was developed in this project and implemented in two 1MW commercial solar inverters were performed using different validation platforms, e.g., control hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) platform, power hardware- in-the-loop (PHIL) platform, and a real PV plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Physics-Driven Dynamic Entrainment-Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low-Cloud Simulation

The turbulent entrainment-mixing process in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) is assumed to follow the extremely inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing. However, different entrainment-mixing scenarios can occur in real clouds. To address this deficiency, a unifying parameterization that represents different entrainment-mixing processes is implemented and evaluated in CESM1.2. The results indicate that the homogeneous mixing degree values simulated by the new parameterization in CESM1.2 are predominantly greater than 50%, suggesting a tendency toward homogeneous mixing. Compared to the extremely inhomogeneous mixing mechanism, the new parameterization increases the cloud droplet number concentration (Nc). More importantly, the new parameterization improves low-cloud fraction (CLDLOW) simulation in Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Southeast Pacific (SEP) regions, with relative improvements of 2.95% and 4.17%, respectively. Furthermore, the improvements reach up to 44.6% and 16.2% in the NWP and SEP regions, respectively, when considering the relationship between N c and CLDLOW. Further analysis reveals that the new parameterization enhances cloud optical depth, longwave radiative cooling effect, net condensation rate, cloud water mixing ratio, lower-troposphere stability, and CLDLOW by increasing N c . Additionally, these results underscore the importance of improving entrainment-mixing parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Global blackout following the K/T Chicxulub impact: Results of impact and atmospheric modeling

Several recent studies have suggested that shock decomposition of anhydrite (CaSO4) target rocks during the K/T Chicxulub impact would have ejected tremendous amounts of sulfur gas into the stratosphere. One of the many potential biospheric effects of this sulfur gas is the generation of a sulfuric acid (H2SO4) aerosol layer capable of causing darkness and severe disruption of photosynthesis for periods of years. In this paper we report the preliminary results of our modeling of shock pressures within the anhydrites and of light attenuation by the H2SO4 aerosol cloud. These models indicate that earlier studies over-estimated the amount of sulfur gas produced, but that more than enough was produced to extend global blackout conditions 4-6 times longer than the approximately 3 month predictions for silicate dust alone.

Pope, K. O.↗
NASA NTRS2003

LS-DYNA Implementation of Polymer Matrix Composite Model Under High Strain Rate Impact

A recently developed constitutive model is implemented into LS-DYNA as a user defined material model (UMAT) to characterize the nonlinear strain rate dependent behavior of polymers. By utilizing this model within a micromechanics technique based on a laminate analogy, an algorithm to analyze the strain rate dependent, nonlinear deformation of a fiber reinforced polymer matrix composite is then developed as a UMAT to simulate the response of these composites under high strain rate impact. The models are designed for shell elements in order to ensure computational efficiency. Experimental and numerical stress-strain curves are compared for two representative polymers and a representative polymer matrix composite, with the analytical model predicting the experimental response reasonably well.

Zheng, Xia-Hua↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling COVID-19 Impacts on Prison Population

The goal of this project was to develop a unique, high-level, concept model that will (1) help examine the consequences COVID-19 has had on prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois and (2) explore (to the extent possible) how that will unfold in the short- and mid-term future. Argonne has unique expertise in dynamic systems modeling and highly specialized simulation capabilities, which will be helpful in developing such a model. The ultimate objective of this CRADA is to develop with the Illinois Public Sentencing Policy Advisory Council (SPAC) the capability to identify and understand factors and interactions associated with prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois. This understanding will then potentially lead to improvements in the allocation of various resources and services. This approach would also be useful to other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Ability of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model to Replicate in Situ Impact Data

Meteoroid environment models must describe the mass, directionality, velocity, and density distributions of meteoroids in order to correctly predict the rate at which meteoroids impact spacecraft. We present an updated version of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) that better captures the correlation between directionality and velocity and incorporates a bulk density distribution. We compare the resulting model with the rate of large particle impacts seen on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and the Pegasus I and II satellites. The updated model shows closer agreement with these in situ data than previous versions of MEM.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Overview of Coupon Testing of an IM7/8552 Composite Required to Characterize High-Energy Impact Dynamic Material Models

As part of NASA’s Advanced Composites Project (ACP), a significant research effort was established to develop and mature analysis methods for composite materials particularly applicable to high-energy dynamic impact applications. An overall goal was to develop and advance analysis methods that can be characterized using fundamental coupon level tests. Based on this fundamental characterization, simulations at the higher levels of a building block approach can be purely predictive. The tests described in this report were performed on a unidirectional carbon fiber polymer matrix composite, IM7/8552 tape, as this material system is representative of a modern aerospace grade carbon fiber tape system. These tests were chosen to provide fundamental material characterization data for three representative progressive damage and failure analysis material models available within the LS-DYNA commercial transient dynamic finite element code for use in the simulation of the dynamic and impact response of composite materials. Two of the material models, MAT162 and MAT261, are well established material models within LS-DYNA. The third material model, MAT213, is under active development. Testing consisted primarily of ASTM-type standard tests, and the tests that were performed were consistent with the needs of all three models. Additionally, coupon level tests were performed that can be used to characterize a delamination model (e.g., cohesive zone or tie-break contact). While, the tests described in this report provide fundamental material characterization data for all three of the material models mentioned above, the data is applicable to additional material models not discussed.

Justusson, Brian P.↗