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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

On the decaying-sterile-neutrino solution to the electron (anti)neutrino appearance anomalies

We explore the hypothesis that the unexplained data from LSND and MiniBooNE are evidence for a new, heavy neutrino mass-eigenstate that mixes with the muon-type neutrino and decays into an electron-type neutrino and a new, very light scalar particle. We consider two different decay scenarios, one with Majorana neutrinos, one with Dirac neutrinos; both fit the data equally well. We find a reasonable, albeit not excellent, fit to the data of MiniBooNE and LSND. The decaying-sterile-neutrino hypothesis, however, cleanly evades constraints from disappearance searches and precision measurements of leptonic meson decays, as long as $1~{\rm MeV}\gtrsim m_4\gtrsim 10$~keV. The SBN program at Fermilab should be able to definitively test the decaying-sterile-neutrino hypothesis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Paleotribological models using preserved fossil tissue properties reveal functional significance of Eurasian mammoth dental evolution

Eurasian mammoths (Mammuthus) underwent substantial modifications in molar morphology as later-diverging species evolved progressively thinner enamel and increased enamel crest complexity. These features have been hypothesized to reduce whole-tooth wear and extend dental longevity as increasingly graze-dominated diets evolved within the lineage. This hypothesis has yet to be directly tested. Here, in this study, we developed an in-silico wear model using experimentally derived wear rates from fossil and extant proboscidean dental tissues. The models revealed that shifts in tissue topology do not affect whole-tooth wear rate, as inverse trends in lamellar frequency and enamel thickness preserve a consistent surface enamel area fraction; the determining factor of wear. Rather, topological shifts produce a wear-emergent secondary occlusal surface with greater numbers of triturating crests that create a regular, low-relief, file-like shearing pavement. These changes in occlusal architecture likely directly impacted the mastication capacity of Mammuthus dentitions, facilitating their dietary expansion to incorporate fibrous, lower-nutrient graze.

Dental wear↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of a silver-based sanitizer to accelerate Escherichia coli die-off on fresh-cut lettuce and maintain produce quality during cold storage: Laboratory and pilot-plant scale tests

Outbreaks and product recalls involving romaine and iceberg lettuce are frequently reported in the United States. Novel technologies are needed to inactivate pathogens without compromising product quality and shelf life. In this study, the effects of a process aid composed of silver dihydrogen citrate, glycerin, and lactic acid (SGL) on Escherichia coli and Listeria monocytogenes concentrations on lettuce immediately after washing and during cold storage were evaluated. Sensory and quality attributes of fresh-cut iceberg lettuce were also evaluated. Laboratory results indicated that application of SGL solution for 30 s as a first step in the washing process resulted in a 3.15 log reduction in E. coli O157:H7 immediately after washing. For E. coli O157:H7 a significant difference between SGL treatment and all other treatments was maintained until day 7. On day zero, SGL led to a 2.94 log reduction of L. monocytogenes. However, there was no significant difference between treatments with or without SGL regardless of storage time. Pilot-plant results showed that samples receiving SGL spray followed by chlorinated flume wash exhibited a greater reduction (1.48 log) in nonpathogenic E. coli populations at the end of shelf life than other treatments (p < 0.05). Additional pilot plant tests were conducted to investigate the hypothesis that SGL residues could continue to impact microbial survival on the final washed lettuce. Results show that pathogens introduced subsequent to flume washing of lettuce pretreated with SGL solution were not affected by antimicrobial residues. Here, the final quality and shelf life of flume washed lettuce were also unaffected by pretreatment with SGL. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate that this new technology has the potential to accelerate E. coli die-off on fresh-cut lettuce during cold storage and improve product safety, while not affecting quality throughout the shelf life of the finished products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

How to detect lensing rotation

Gravitational lensing rotation of images is predicted to be negligible at linear order in density perturbations, but can be produced by the post-Born lens-lens coupling at second order. This rotation is somewhat enhanced for Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing due to the large source path length, but remains small and very challenging to detect directly by CMB lensing reconstruction alone. We show the rotation may be detectable at high significance as a cross-correlation signal between the curl reconstructed with Simons Observatory (SO) or CMB-S4 data, and a template constructed from quadratic combinations of large-scale structure (LSS) tracers. Equivalently, the lensing rotation-tracer-tracer bispectrum can also be detected, where LSS tracers considered include the CMB lensing convergence, galaxy density, and the Cosmic Infrared Background (CIB), or optimal combinations thereof. We forecast that an optimal combination of these tracers can probe post-Born rotation at the level of 5.7σ–6.1σ with SO and 13.6σ–14.7σ for CMB-S4, depending on whether standard quadratic estimators or maximum a posteriori iterative methods are deployed. We also show possible improvement up to 21.3σ using a CMB-S4 deep patch observation with polarization-only iterative lensing reconstruction. However, these cross-correlation signals have non-zero bias because the rotation template is quadratic in the tracers, and exists even if the lensing is rotation free. We estimate this bias analytically, and test it using simple null-hypothesis simulations to confirm that the bias remains subdominant to the rotation signal of interest. Detection and then measurement of the lensing rotation cross-spectrum is therefore a realistic target for future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Primary $\gamma$-ray intensities and $\gamma$-strength functions from discrete two-step $\gamma$-ray cascades in radiative proton-capture experiments

Background: Reaction rates of radiative capture reactions can play a crucial role in the nucleosynthesis of heavy nuclei in explosive stellar environments. These reaction rates depend strongly on $\gamma$-ray decay widths in the reaction products, which are, for nonresonant capture reactions at high excitation energies, derived from the $\gamma$-ray strength function and the nuclear level density. Recently, the ratio method was applied to primary $\gamma$ rays observed from ($\textit{d, p}$) reactions and nuclear resonance fluorescence measurements to extract the dipole strength in atomic nuclei and to test the generalized Brink-Axel hypothesis. Purpose: The purpose of this work is to apply the ratio method to primary $\gamma$-ray intensities of the 63,65 Cu($\textit{p},\gamma$) reactions to extract $\gamma$-ray strength information on the nuclei 64,66 Zn. Here, the impact of spin distribution, total $\gamma$-ray decay widths, level densities, and width fluctuations on the application of the ratio method will be discussed. Additionally, by comparing the relative $\gamma$-ray strength at different excitation energies, conclusions on the validity of the generalized Brink-Axel hypothesis can be made. Method: The radiative proton capture reaction measurements have been performed at the HORUS $\gamma$-ray spectrometer of the University of Cologne at one excitation energy for each reaction. Primary $\gamma$-ray intensities have been determined by normalizing secondary $\gamma$-ray transitions in two-step cascades using their absolute branching ratio. The ratio method was applied to the measured primary $\gamma$-ray intensities as well as to previous measurements by Erlandsson et al. at different excitation energies. Results: The relative strength function curve for 64 Zn from our measurement shows no significant deviation from the previous measurement at a different excitation energy. The same is true for 66 Zn where both measurements were at almost the same excitation energy. Absolute $\gamma$-strength function values have been obtained by normalizing the relative curves to quasiparticle random phase approximation calculations because of the absence of experimental data in the respective energy region. Conclusion: The generalized Brink-Axel hypothesis, i.e., the independence of the strength function on the excitation energy, seems to hold in the studied energy region and nuclei. The method to obtain primary $\gamma$-ray intensities from two-step cascade spectra was shown to be a valuable and sensitive tool although its uncertainties are connected to the knowledge of the low-energy level scheme of the investigated nucleus. The scaling in the ratio method should be taken with care, because the relative strength is not a simple sum of $f_{E1}$ and $f_{M1}$ but a somewhat complex linear combination dependent on the excitation energy of the nucleus.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A positive feedback loop involving the Spa2 SHD domain contributes to focal polarization

Focal polarization is necessary for finely arranged cell-cell interactions. The yeast mating projection, with its punctate polarisome, is a good model system for this process. We explored the critical role of the polarisome scaffold protein Spa2 during yeast mating with a hypothesis motivated by mathematical modeling and tested by in vivo experiments. Our simulations predicted that two positive feedback loops generate focal polarization, including a novel feedback pathway involving the N-terminal domain of Spa2. We characterized the latter using loss-of-function and gain-of-function mutants. The N-terminal region contains a Spa2 Homology Domain (SHD) which is conserved from yeast to humans, and when mutated largely reproduced the spa2Δ phenotype. Our work together with published data show that the SHD domain recruits Msb3/4 that stimulates Sec4-mediated transport of Bud6 to the polarisome. There, Bud6 activates Bni1-catalyzed actin cable formation, recruiting more Spa2 and completing the positive feedback loop. We demonstrate that disrupting this loop at any point results in morphological defects. Gain-of-function perturbations partially restored focal polarization in a spa2 loss-of-function mutant without restoring localization of upstream components, thus supporting the pathway order. Thus, we have collected data consistent with a novel positive feedback loop that contributes to focal polarization during pheromone-induced polarization in yeast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete modeling of a transformer with ALEGRA

We report progress on a task to model transformers in ALEGRA using the “Transient Magnetics” option. We specifically evaluate limits of the approach resolving individual coil wires. There are practical limits to the number of turns in a coil that can be numerically modeled, but calculated inductance can be scaled to the correct number of turns in a simple way. Our testing essentially confirmed this “turns scaling” hypothesis. We developed a conceptual transformer design, representative of practical designs of interest, and that focused our analysis. That design includes three coils wrapped around a rectangular ferromagnetic core. The secondary and tertiary coils have multiple layers. The tertiary has three layers of 13 turns each; the secondary has five layers of 44 turns; the primary has one layer of 20 turns. We validated the turns scaling of inductance for simple (one-layer) coils in air (no core) by comparison to available independent calculations for simple rectangular coils. These comparisons quantified the errors versus reduced number of turns modeled. For more than 3 turns, the errors are <5%. The magnetic field solver failed to converge (within 5000 iterations) for >10 turns. Including the core introduced some complications. It was necessary to capture the core surfaces in thin grid sheaths to minimize errors in computed magnetic energy. We do not yet have quantitative benchmarks with which to compare, but calculated results are qualitatively reasonable.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for Continuous and Transient Neutrino Emission Associated with IceCube’s Highest-energy Tracks: An 11 yr Analysis

IceCube alert events are neutrinos with a moderate-to-high probability of having astrophysical origin. In this study, we analyze 11 yr of IceCube data and investigate 122 alert events and a selection of high-energy tracks detected between 2009 and the end of 2021. This high-energy event selection (alert events + high-energy tracks) has an average probability of ≥0.5 of being of astrophysical origin. We search for additional continuous and transient neutrino emission within the high-energy events' error regions. We find no evidence for significant continuous neutrino emission from any of the alert event directions. The only locally significant neutrino emission is the transient emission associated with the blazar TXS 0506+056, with a local significance of 3σ, which confirms previous IceCube studies. When correcting for 122 test positions, the global p-value is 0.156 and compatible with the background hypothesis. We constrain the total continuous flux emitted from all 122 test positions at 100 TeV to be below 1.2 × 10 –15 (TeV cm 2 s) –1 at 90% confidence assuming an E –2 spectrum. This corresponds to 4.5% of IceCube's astrophysical diffuse flux. Overall, we find no indication that alert events in general are linked to lower-energetic continuous or transient neutrino emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

In situ quantification of fracture slip induced by hydraulic injections in a deep borehole: A comparison of two different borehole techniques

In situ measurements of fracture deformation during fluid injection are rare, yet essential for understanding the mechanical response of fractured rock. In this study, we evaluate the reliability of two methods by comparing their slip vector estimates: high-resolution borehole acoustic televiewer images captured before and after injection tests, and displacement data from a three-component borehole deformation probe recorded during the injections. Acoustic televiewer images capture only final in-plane displacement, whereas three-component borehole deformation measurements provide full 3D, transient fracture movement. Four injection tests in a fractured granitic rock mass along an inclined borehole at the Bedretto Underground Laboratory (Switzerland), beneath more than 1100 m of overburden, were analyzed. The two methods yielded consistent kinematics and comparable slip magnitudes, typically in the range of 0.2 – 0.6 mm. Angular differences between estimated slip directions ranged from 0.2° to 28°. For two test intervals with pre-existing fractures optimally oriented for slip, the measured slip vectors agreed with forward-modeled slip vectors based on the regional in situ stress field, supporting the Wallace–Bott hypothesis. Measurable shear displacement was identified in two test intervals containing fractures oriented nearly perpendicular to the least principal stress, including a newly formed hydraulic fracture. This demonstrates that even fractures unfavorably oriented for slip can undergo shear due to local stress perturbations around an inclined borehole.

Acoustic televiewer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ensuring statistical reproducibility of ocean model simulations in the age of hybrid computing

Novel high performance computing systems that feature hybrid architectures require large scale code refactoring to unravel underlying exploitable parallelism. Such redesign can often be accompanied with machine-precision changes as the order of computation cannot always be maintained. For chaotic systems like climate models, these round-off level differences can grow rapidly. Systematic errors may also manifest initially as machine-precision differences. Isolating genuine round off level differences from such errors remains a challenge. Here, we apply two-sample equality of distribution tests to evaluate statistical reproducibility of the ocean model component of US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A 2-year control simulation ensemble is compared to a modified ensemble as a test case - after a known non-bit-for-bit change in a model component is introduced - to evaluate the null hypothesis that the two ensembles are statistically indistinguishable. To quantify the false negative rates of these tests, we conduct a formal power analysis using a targeted suite of short simulation ensembles. The ensemble suite contains several perturbed ensembles, each with a progressively different climate than the baseline ensemble - obtained by perturbing the magnitude of a single model tuning parameter, the Gent and McWilliams κ, in a controlled manner. The null hypothesis is evaluated for each of perturbed ensembles using these tests. The power analysis informs on the detection limits of the tests for given ensemble size allowing model developers to evaluate the impact of an introduced non-bit-for-bit change to the model.

Mahajan, Salil↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inelastic dark matter scattering off Thallium cannot save DAMA

We study the compatibility of the observed DAMA modulation signal with inelastic scattering of dark matter (DM) off of the 0.1% Thallium (Tl) dopant in DAMA. In this work we test whether there exist regions of parameter space where the Tl interpretation gives a good fit to the most recent data from DAMA, and whether these regions are compatible with the latest constraints from other direct detection experiments. Previously, Chang et al. in 2010, had proposed the Tl interpretation of the DAMA data, and more recently (in 2019) the DAMA/LIBRA collaboration found regions in parameter space of Tl inelastic scattering that differ by more than 10σ from a no modulation hypothesis. We have expanded upon their work by testing whether the regions of parameter space where inelastic DM-Tl scattering gives a good fit to the most recent DAMA data survive the constraints placed by the lack of a DM signal in XENON1T and CRESST-II. In addition, we have tested how these regions change with the main sources of uncertainty: the Tl quenching factor, which has never been measured directly, and the astrophysical uncertainties in the DM distribution. We conclude that inelastic DM scattering off Tl cannot explain the DAMA data in light of null results from other experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanical Consequences of Oxygen Inhibition in Vat Polymerization

Vat polymerization is a type of additive manufacturing that is used extensively to produce micro-architected structures for mechanical applications, which brings the mechanical properties of photopolymerized resins into sharp focus. However, it is known that photopolymerization is sensitive to a number of factors, perhaps the most notorious of which is oxygen inhibition. Herein, the degree to which oxygen inhibition influences the macroscopic and microscopic properties of structures made using vat polymerization is explored. This work is motivated by an observation of lattices being >4 times softer in the experiment than predicted by simulation, which is hypothesized to be due to the material at the surface being incompletely cured. Furthermore, this hypothesis is supported by four-point bending tests in which flexural modulus is found to increase with beam thickness. Nanoindentation and bulk compression studies show that this surface softening is present for three distinct resins. Importantly, it is observed that structures post-print cured in nitrogen are stiffer than those post-print cured in air, however, regardless of the post-print curing environment, printing samples in the presence of oxygen makes them softer than samples photocured in nitrogen. Collectively, these results show the outsized influence of oxygen inhibition on micro-architected structures realized using vat polymerization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time reversal symmetry breaking and odd viscosity in active fluids: Green–Kubo and NEMD results

Active fluids, which are driven at the microscale by non-conservative forces, are known to exhibit novel transport phenomena due to the breaking of time reversal symmetry. Recently, Epstein and Mandadapu [arXiv:1907.10041 (2019)] obtained Green-Kubo relations for the full set of viscous coefficients governing isotropic chiral active fluids, including the so-called odd viscosity, invoking Onsager's regression hypothesis for the decay of fluctuations in active non-equilibrium steady states. In this Communication, we test these Green-Kubo relations using molecular dynamics simulations of a canonical model system consisting of actively torqued dumbbells. We find the resulting odd and shear viscosity values from the Green-Kubo relations to be in good agreement with values measured independently through non-equilibrium molecular dynamics flow simulations. This provides a test of the Green-Kubo relations and lends support to the application of the Onsager regression hypothesis in relation to viscous behaviors of active matter systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

ENSO-Induced Teleconnection: Process-Oriented Diagnostics to Assess Rossby Wave Sources and Ambient Flow Properties in Climate Models

Climate model fidelity in representing ENSO-induced teleconnection is assessed with process-oriented diagnostics that examine a chain of processes, from equatorial Pacific precipitation to the midlatitude circulation pattern over the Pacific–North American regions. Such processes are rarely addressed during model development. Using an upper-tropospheric divergent level, local vorticity gradient of the ambient zonal flow (∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 ) and a restoring force for Rossby waves (β * ) are estimated, the equivalent barotropic vorticity equation is solved, and an anomalous Rossby wave source (RWS') quantified. The analysis is applied to AMIP5 and AMIP6 simulations. For a realistic circulation response representation, the hypothesis that models accurately represent the strength and location of RWS', and spatial variations in β * is tested. Compared to AMIP5, in AMIP6 there are clear improvements in representing RWS' and β * . To validate the hypothesis, the analysis identifies two metrics: spatially coherent RWS' in the subtropical North Pacific, and longitudes of negative β * over the western-central North Pacific. By projecting these metrics in two and three-dimensional views, improvements or degradations in model versions are apparent. If a model’s fidelity in representing ∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 and RWS' are compromised, then radiated Rossby waves are reflected more equatorward, resulting in zonally elongated circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific. Thus, during climate model development, applying this analysis frequently will keep a regular check on the fidelity of the modeled response to anomalous El Niño convection in conjunction with changing model ambient flow dependencies. As a result, this analysis is intended to form a process-oriented diagnostics package, a community contribution to the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Island Rainfall Enhancement in the Maritime Continent

Abstract The hypothesis that the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC) enhance total rainfall and time‐mean upward motion is tested using a convection‐permitting regional model. Sensitivity experiments with the islands removed greatly diminish both rainfall and upward motion, supporting the hypothesis. We examine the individual factors in this enhancement, isolating the impacts of the diurnal cycle from those of basic‐state (i.e., constant) forcing of orography and the land surface. We find that the basic‐state forcing by land is the only factor that substantially enhances total island rainfall, specifically through the enhancement of mean surface heat fluxes. The diurnal cycle and orographic forcing, however, substantially enhance rainfall in the seas surrounding the islands. Moreover, the diurnal cycle is found to be essential for promoting mesoscale circulations on the spatial scales of the islands, which are critical to both the upscale growth of deep convection and the most extreme rainfall rates.

Ruppert, Jr., James H.↗