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At least 397 records · Page 22

Demystifying Cyberattacks: Potential for Securing Energy Systems With Explainable AI : Preprint

Modernization of energy systems has led to in- creased interactions among multiple critical infrastructures and diverse stakeholders making the challenge of operational decision making more complex and at times beyond cognitive capabilities of human operators. The state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches show promise of supporting users with complex decision-making challenges, such as those occurring in our rapidly transforming cyber-physical energy systems. However, successful adoption of data-driven decision support technology for critical infrastructure will be dependent on the ability of these technologies to be trustworthy and contextually interpretable. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of implementing XAI for interpretable detection of cyberattacks in the energy system. Leveraging a proof-of-concept simulation use case of detection of a data falsification attack on a photovoltaic system using XGBoost algorithm, we demonstrate how Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), a flavor XAI approach, can help provide contextual and actionable interpretation of cyberattack detection.

artificial intelligence↗

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, F M1 (x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, F M2 (x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. F M2 (x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. Furthermore, we show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures

Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture

Agricultural production and food prices are affected by hydroclimatic extremes. There has been a growing amount of literature measuring the impacts of individual extreme events (heat stress or water stress) on agricultural and human systems. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the significance and the magnitude of the impacts of compound extremes. This study combines a fine-scale weather product with outputs of a hydrological model to construct functional metrics of individual and compound hydroclimatic extremes for agriculture. Then, a yield response function is estimated with individual and compound metrics, focusing on corn in the United States during the 1981–2015 period. Supported by statistical evidence, the findings suggest that metrics of compound hydroclimatic extremes are better predictors of corn yield variations than metrics of individual extremes. The results also confirm that wet heat is more damaging than dry heat for corn. This study shows the average yield damage from heat stress has been up to four times more severe when combined with water stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model metamers reveal divergent invariances between biological and artificial neural networks

Deep neural network models of sensory systems are often proposed to learn representational transformations with invariances like those in the brain. To reveal these invariances, we generated ‘model metamers’, stimuli whose activations within a model stage are matched to those of a natural stimulus. Metamers for state-of-the-art supervised and unsupervised neural network models of vision and audition were often completely unrecognizable to humans when generated from late model stages, suggesting differences between model and human invariances. Targeted model changes improved human recognizability of model metamers but did not eliminate the overall human–model discrepancy. The human recognizability of a model’s metamers was well predicted by their recognizability by other models, suggesting that models contain idiosyncratic invariances in addition to those required by the task. Metamer recognizability dissociated from both traditional brain-based benchmarks and adversarial vulnerability, revealing a distinct failure mode of existing sensory models and providing a complementary benchmark for model assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Influence of Size, Shape, and Density of Microplastics on Their Transport Modes: A Modeling Approach

Microplastics (MPs) pose significant risks to marine ecosystems and human health, necessitating accurate predictions of their distributions in aquatic environments for effective risk mitigation. However, understanding MP transport dynamics is challenging because of the inadequate representation of MP characteristics such as size, shape, and density in numerical models. Further, the accuracy of the MP vertical profiles in existing models has not been thoroughly validated. Thus, we developed an MP transport model within the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model framework (FVCOM-MP) by integrating MP characteristics. We validated FVCOM-MP against experimental and analytical data, focusing on various MP transport modes and transitions. FVCOM-MP successfully replicates MP profiles in different transport modes, including the bedload, surface-load, suspended-load, and mixed-load modes. Additionally, we introduce phase diagrams for classifying MP transport modes based on particle characteristics, enhancing our understanding of MP dynamics in aquatic systems. The transport modes for a number of real-world MP particles, including fishing line, plastic bag/bottle fragments, synthetic fibers, tire wear particles, polyvinyl chloride and expanded polystyrene pellets, were analyzed with these phase diagrams.

Microplastic transport, Settling velocity, Rising ↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (Version 3.0 Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computationally and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 3.0. HyRAM 3.0 includes the new ability to model cryogenic hydrogen releases from liquid hydrogen systems, using a different property calculation method and different equations of state. Other changes include modifications to the ignition probability calculations, component leak frequency calculations, and addition of default impulse data.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2°C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The field of human building interaction for convergent research and innovation for intelligent built environments

Human-Building Interaction (HBI) is a convergent field that represents the growing complexities of the dynamic interplay between human experience and intelligence within built environments. This paper provides core definitions, research dimensions, and an overall vision for the future of HBI as developed through consensus among 25 interdisciplinary experts in a series of facilitated workshops. Three primary areas contribute to and require attention in HBI research: humans (human experiences, performance, and well-being), buildings (building design and operations), and technologies (sensing, inference, and awareness). Three critical interdisciplinary research domains intersect these areas: control systems and decision making, trust and collaboration, and modeling and simulation. Finally, at the core, it is vital for HBI research to center on and support equity, privacy, and sustainability. Compelling research questions are posed for each primary area, research domain, and core principle. State-of-the-art methods used in HBI studies are discussed, and examples of original research are offered to illustrate opportunities for the advancement of HBI research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to Ebola Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

Ebola virus (EBOV) is high risk biological agent, classified as a Category A priority pathogen (Flaviviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), known to cause hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific Ebola virus [NCBITAXON:186536] (Zaire/Makona or Zaire/Mayinga) experimental infection study. Human host samples types include peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from blood plasma ["PBMC", BTO:0001025], human hepatoma carcinoma cells ["HUH", BTO:0001950], human umbilical vein endothelial cells ["HUVEC", BTO:0001949], immortalized human hepatocyte cells ["IHH", BTO:0006147], and human histiocytic lymphoma cells ["U937", BTO:0001412].

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to Influenza A Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a high risk biological agent, classified as a Category C priority pathogen (Orthomyxoviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is known to cause severe respiratory disease with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific Influenza A virus [NCBITAXON:11320] experimental infection study. Host sample types include human lung adenocarcinoma cells ["Calu-3", BTO:0002750] and whole mouse lung [BTO:0000763] tissue collections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to MERS-CoV Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is classified as a Category C priority pathogen (Coronaviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is known to cause severe respiratory disease with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific MERS-CoV [NCBITAXON:1335626] experimental infection study. Host sample types include human lung adenocarcinoma cells ["Calu-3", BTO:0002750], human bronchial epithelial cells ["Calu-3 clone 2B4"; BTO:0002022], primary human fibroblasts ["FB"; BTO:0000452], primary human airway epithelial cells ["HAE"; BTO:0005571], human microvascular endothelial cells ["HMVE"; BTO:0003123], and whole mouse lung [BTO:0000763] tissue collections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HEPTAPOD: Orchestrating High Energy Physics Workflows Towards Autonomous Agency

Many workflows in high-energy-physics (HEP) stand to benefit from recent advances in transformer-based large language models (LLMs). While early applications of LLMs focused on text generation and code completion, modern LLMs now support orchestrated agency: the coordinated execution of complex, multi-step tasks through tool use, structured context, and iterative reasoning. We introduce the HEP Toolkit for Agentic Planning, Orchestration, and Deployment (HEPTAPOD), an orchestration framework designed to bring this emerging paradigm to HEP pipelines. The framework enables LLMs to interface with domain-specific tools, construct and manage simulation workflows, and assist in common utility and data analysis tasks through schema-validated operations and run-card-driven configuration. To demonstrate these capabilities, we consider a representative Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) Monte Carlo validation pipeline that spans model generation, event simulation, and downstream analysis within a unified, reproducible workflow. HEPTAPOD provides a structured and auditable layer between human researchers, LLMs, and computational infrastructure, establishing a foundation for transparent, human-in-the-loop systems.

Menzo, Tony [Alabama U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002↗

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗

Investigation and Analysis of Dolomite Dissolution in Variable Strength Systems Relevant to the WIPP

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) was opened in 1999 as a solution to the long-term disposal of the nation's nuclear defense-generated transuranic (TRU) waste. The salt beds were recommended as the ideal location because they are free from flowing fresh water, easily mined, impermeable, and geologically stable. However, for performance assessment modeling, release scenarios must be considered. The most likely release scenario was determined to be human intrusion leading to direct and/or long-term brine release (US DOE 1995, US DOE 1996, Perkins et al., 1999). The focus of this research is the Rustler formation because it is located above the WIPP and is the most transmissive layer (Perkins et al., 1999). Objective: To determine the effect of chelating ligands ( e.g. EDTA) on dissolution of dolomite in high ionic strength systems. Do brines impact dolomite dissolution and how is it affected by EDTA binding with cations? By varying the ionic strengths, different brine conditions can be simulated similar to those in and around the Culebra member and evaluate trends of dissolved Ca and Mg in the aqueous phase from the quantified data. Conclusions: <2% of dolomite dissolved over one week at pH 8.5. Greater dissolution occurred at higher ionic strength and in the presence of NaCl with approximately 0.4 vs. 0.9% of Mg removed from dolomite in 0.1 and 1.0 M Na. Further, 0.3 vs. 0.9% of Mg was removed from dolomite in 1.0 M IS CaCl{sub 2} versus NaCl. EDTA increased dissolution of dolomite at low ionic strength due to its strong complexation affinity for Ca/Mg with slightly greater removal of Ca than Mg. Significant differences were not observed at high ionic strength due to the presence of large concentrations of competing cations (Na, Ca, Mg). Slightly higher concentrations of Ca were removed from dolomite than Mg after one week, suggesting either incongruent dissolution or release through ion exchange of Ca from trace mineral impurities. Further, when EDTA was present, it may have increased Ca removal due to its greater complexation for Ca than Mg. Environmental Implications: High ionic strength brines and low ionic strength solutions with organic ligands increase dissolution of dolomite. Due to the long half-lives of radionuclides in the TRU waste, it may be important to consider the long term impact of dolomite dissolution for potential release scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study - Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 [Slides]

Lithuania's Energy Vision aims to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity generation by 2035 and transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible while maintaining affordability, reliability, and energy security. The Lithuania Energy Agency (LEA) is partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study (Lithuania 100) to provide evidence-based analysis for development of Lithuania's National Energy Independence Strategy. The Lithuania 100 Study leverages unique tools and capabilities of NREL to provide rigorous technical analysis of clean energy policies to achieve 100% renewable energy, and assess impacts on electricity grid operations, hydrogen system development, electricity distribution networks, air quality, and human health outcomes. The study is supported by a stakeholder committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy of Lithuania and implemented by four technical working groups. This report provides highlights of key interim results from modeling of Lithuania's near-term electricity grid through the year 2030. Results show that Lithuania has sufficient renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and interconnection with neighboring European Union countries to reliably meet projected 2030 electricity demand with 100% renewable energy. A range of scenarios were modeled, each of which achieves at least 100% renewable energy in electricity, on average over the year, by 2030. Potential demands for hydrogen across industrial and transportation sectors were also evaluated, as well as the cost of hydrogen produced in Lithuania by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Machine-Learning-Assisted Synthesis of Polar Racemates

Racemates have recently received attention as nonlinear optical and piezoelectric materials. We report a machine-learning-assisted composition space approach was applied to synthesize the missing M = Ti, Zr members of the Δ,Λ-[Cu(bpy) 2 (H 2 O)] 2 [MF 6 ] 2·3 H 2 O (M = Ti, Zr, Hf; bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine) family (space group: Pna2 1 ). In each (CuO, MO 2 )/bpy/HF(aq) (M = Ti, Zr, Hf) system, the polar noncentrosymmetric racemate (M-NCS) forms in competition with a centrosymmetric one-dimensional chain compound (M-CS) based on alternating Cu(bpy)(H 2 O) 2 2+ and MF 6 2– basic building units (space groups: Ti-CS (Pnma), Zr-CS (P1̅), Hf-CS (P2/n)). Machine learning models were trained on reaction parameters to gain unbiased insight into the underlying statistical trends in each composition space. A human-interpretable decision tree shows that phase selection is driven primarily by the bpy:CuO molar ratio for reactions containing Zr or Hf, and predicts that formation of the Ti-NCS compound requires that the amount of HF present be decreased to raise the pH, which we verified experimentally. Predictive leave-one-metal-out (LOO) models further confirm that behavior in the Ti system is distinct from that of the Zr and Hf systems. The chemical origin of this distinction was probed via fluorine K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Pre-edge features in the F1s X-ray absorption spectra reveal the strong ligand-to-metal π bonding between Ti(3d – t 2g ) and F(2p) states that distinguishes the TiF 6 2– anion from the ZrF 6 2– and HfF 6 2– anions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗