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DOE OSTI2021

Observed Global Increases in Tropical Cyclone-Induced Ocean Cooling and Primary Production

Tropical cyclones (TC) provide an important source of mixing for the upper ocean, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface and triggering phytoplankton blooms. TCs are changing in response to global warming, yet the impacts of those changes on the upper ocean are poorly known. Here we show a significant increasing trend in global TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of 0.054oC per decade since 1982. The enhanced cooling has been driven primarily by an increase in the intensity of strong TCs (maximum wind speed > 33 m s-1) and associated strengthening of TC-induced mixing. Consistent with the enhanced mixing and SST cooling, we find a significant increase in TC-induced surface chlorophyll-a concentration of 3.7 x 10-3 mg m-3 per decade in oligotrophic areas. This enhancement of oceanic primary production by TCs is expected to partially offset its projected global decline under climate change.

Dac Da, Nguyen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)

Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗

DOE OSTI2025

Response of Atmospheric River Width and Intensity to Aquaplanet Warming: A Detection Algorithm‐ and Background Moisture‐Independent Approach

The width of an atmospheric river (AR) is an important parameter when evaluating its impact. Although previous research suggests ARs will widen with global warming, a precise response has been muddled by the large sensitivity of width to a diverse set of AR detection techniques (ARDTs). Here, we propose a methodology that removes the influence of the ARDT by modeling AR‐integrated vapor transport (IVT) profiles as idealized exponential curves with free parameters given by background IVT, intensity above background IVT, and profile width. Notably, our definition for AR profile width does not include any explicit numerical thresholds, relative or absolute, for IVT. We apply our approach to a series of idealized aquaplanet experiments, first with a baseline sea surface temperature (SST) distribution, and then with +2K, +4K, and +6K uniform warming, so as to determine the contributions of each free parameter to AR width. We also apply our approach to high‐resolution atmosphere‐only models forced with SSTs modified to preserve historical variability but following projected warming over 2016–2050. Our results show that contributions to impacts‐relevant AR widening comes primarily from enhancements in background IVT and AR intensity, as opposed to from dynamic width changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century

Terrestrial vegetation removes CO 2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO 2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO 2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming

Abstract Light-absorbing particles (LAP) deposited on seasonal snowpack can result in snow darkening, earlier snowmelt, and regional climate change. However, their future evolution and contributions to snowpack change relative to global warming remain unclear. Here, using Earth System Model simulations, we project significantly reduced black carbon deposition by 2081-2100, which reduces the December-May average LAP-induced radiative forcing in snow over the Northern Hemisphere from 1.3 Wm −2 during 1995-2014 to 0.65 (SSP126) and 0.49 (SSP585) Wm −2 . We quantify separately the contributions of climate change and LAP evolution on future snowpack and demonstrate that projected LAP changes in snow over the Tibetan Plateau will alleviate future snowpack loss due to climate change by 52.1 ± 8.0% and 8.0 ± 1.1% at the end of the century for the two scenarios, mainly due to reduced black carbon contamination. Our findings highlight a cleaner snow future and its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt especially under the sustainable development pathway of SSP126.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon detects old carbon release as a fingerprint of warming and permafrost destabilization with climate change

The permafrost region has accumulated organic carbon in cold and waterlogged soils over thousands of years and now contains three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Global warming is degrading permafrost with the potential to accelerate climate change as increased microbial decomposition releases soil carbon as greenhouse gases. A 19-year time series of soil and ecosystem respiration radiocarbon from Alaska provides long-term insight into changing permafrost soil carbon dynamics in a warmer world. Nine per cent of ecosystem respiration and 23% of soil respiration observations had radiocarbon values more than 50‰ lower than the atmospheric value. Furthermore, the overall trend of ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon values through time decreased more than atmospheric radiocarbon values did, indicating that old carbon degradation was enhanced. Boosted regression tree analyses showed that temperature and moisture environmental variables had the largest relative influence on lower radiocarbon values. This suggested that old carbon degradation was controlled by warming/permafrost thaw and soil drying together, as waterlogged soil conditions could protect soil carbon from microbial decomposition even when thawed. Overall, changing conditions increasingly favoured the release of old carbon, which is a definitive fingerprint of an accelerating feedback to climate change as a consequence of warming and permafrost destabilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening

Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12-21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO 2 . Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity Studies for Space-Based Global Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is well known as the primary forcing agent of global warming. Although the climate forcing due to CO2 is well known, the sources and sinks of CO2 are not well understood. Currently the lack of global atmospheric CO2 observations limits our ability to diagnose the global carbon budget (e.g., finding the so-called "missing sink") and thus limits our ability to understand past climate change and predict future climate response. Space-based techniques are being developed to make high-resolution and high-precision global column CO2 measurements. One of the proposed techniques utilizes the passive remote sensing of Earth's reflected solar radiation at the weaker vibration-rotation band of CO2 in the near infrared (approx. 1.57 micron). We use a line-by-line radiative transfer model to explore the potential of this method. Results of sensitivity studies for CO2 concentration variation and geophysical conditions (i.e., atmospheric temperature, surface reflectivity, solar zenith angle, aerosol, and cirrus cloud) will be presented. We will also present sensitivity results for an O2 A-band (approx. 0.76 micron) sensor that will be needed along with CO2 to make surface pressure and cloud height measurements.

Mao, Jian-Ping↗

DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

Notz, Dirk↗

NASA NTRS2005

Establishing the Global Fresh Water Sensor Web

This paper presents an approach to measuring the major components of the water cycle from space using the concept of a sensor-web of satellites that are linked to a data assimilation system. This topic is of increasing importance, due to the need for fresh water to support the growing human population, coupled with climate variability and change. The net effect is that water is an increasingly valuable commodity. The distribution of fresh water is highly uneven over the Earth, with both strong latitudinal distributions due to the atmospheric general circulation, and even larger variability due to landforms and the interaction of land with global weather systems. The annual global fresh water budget is largely a balance between evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff. Although the available volume of fresh water on land is small, the short residence time of water in these fresh water reservoirs causes the flux of fresh water - through evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff - to be large. With a total atmospheric water store of approx. 13 x 10(exp 12)cu m, and an annual flux of approx. 460 x 10(exp 12)cu m/y, the mean atmospheric residence time of water is approx. 10 days. River residence times are similar, biological are approx. 1 week, soil moisture is approx. 2 months, and lakes and aquifers are highly variable, extending from weeks to years. The hypothesized potential for redistribution and acceleration of the global hydrological cycle is therefore of concern. This hypothesized speed-up - thought to be associated with global warming - adds to the pressure placed upon water resources by the burgeoning human population, the variability of weather and climate, and concerns about anthropogenic impacts on global fresh water availability.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Process Model for ITCZ Narrowing under Warming Highlights Clear-Sky Water Vapor Feedbacks and Gross Moist Stability Changes in AMIP Models

Tropical areas with mean upward motion—and as such the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—are projected to contract under global warming. To understand this process, a simple model based on dry static energy and moisture equations is introduced for zonally symmetric overturning driven by sea surface temperature (SST). Processes governing ascent area fraction and zonal mean precipitation are examined for insight into Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Bulk parameters governing radiative feedbacks and moist static energy transport in the simple model are estimated from the AMIP ensemble. Uniform warming in the simple model produces ascent area contraction and precipitation intensification—similar to observations and climate models. Contributing effects include stronger water vapor radiative feedbacks, weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks, stronger convection-circulation feedbacks, and greater poleward moisture export. The simple model identifies parameters consequential for the inter-AMIP-model spread; an ensemble generated by perturbing parameters governing shortwave water vapor feedbacks and gross moist stability changes under warming tracks inter-AMIP-model variations with a correlation coefficient ~0.46. Here, the simple model also predicts the multimodel mean changes in tropical ascent area and precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the simple model reproduces relationships among ascent area precipitation, ascent strength, and ascent area fraction observed in AMIP models. A substantial portion of the inter-AMIP-model spread is traced to the spread in how moist static energy and vertical velocity profiles change under warming, which in turn impact the gross moist stability in deep convective regions—highlighting the need for observational constraints on these quantities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Efficient 1.6 Micron Laser Source for Methane DIAL

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and on a per molecule basis has a warming influence 72 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20 year horizon. Therefore, it is important to look at near term radiative effects due to methane to develop mitigation strategies to counteract global warming trends via ground and airborne based measurements systems. These systems require the development of a time-resolved DIAL capability using a narrow-line laser source allowing observation of atmospheric methane on local, regional and global scales. In this work, a demonstrated and efficient nonlinear conversion scheme meeting the performance requirements of a deployable methane DIAL system is presented. By combining a single frequency 1064 nm pump source and a seeded KTP OPO more than 5 mJ of 1.6 μm pulse energy is generated with conversion efficiencies in excess of 20%. Even without active cavity control instrument limited linewidths (50 pm) were achieved with an estimated spectral purity of ~95%. Tunable operation over 400 pm (limited by the tuning range of the seed laser) was also demonstrated. This source demonstrated the critical needs for a methane DIAL system motivating additional development of the technology.

Shuman, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Research needs targeting direct air capture of carbon dioxide: Material & process performance characteristics under realistic environmental conditions

The extraction of CO 2 from ambient air, or direct air capture (DAC), is a crucial negative CO 2 emissions technology with great potential for contributing to the mitigation of global warming and climate change. Furthermore, nearly all published research on DAC has been conducted under indoor temperature conditions, i.e. 20 to 30 °C. In contrast, the future global implementation of DAC requires it to be operational across a wide expanse of geographical areas, of which the local temperatures can vary between -30 to 50 °C. Similarly, the absolute humidity can vary from ~0 to 84 g/m 3 in various locations. Due to the massive amount of air that would be processed, it may be impractical to preheat or dehumidify the air before the CO 2 separation. Therefore, it is important to develop DAC materials with good performance at realistic outdoor conditions, especially at sub-ambient conditions, i.e. -30 to 20 °C. In addition to material development, system-level studies at sub-ambient conditions are also needed for the DAC processes to reach optimal designs, which may be very different from those at ambient conditions. In this perspective article, we first assess the literature to identify the technical gaps that need to be filled for DAC to be applicable at realistic outdoor conditions. We then suggest additional research directions needed for DAC to be viable under varied conditions from the perspectives of materials and system designs. For materials, we discuss the expected physical and chemical property changes for the sorbents when the temperature or humidity reaches extremes within their range, and how that will impact performance. Similarly, for system design, we indicate how varied conditions will impact performance and how these changes will impact process optimization.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Novel Triple-Pulsed 2-micrometer Lidar for Simultaneous and Independent CO2 and H2O Column Measurement

The study of global warming needs precisely and accurately measuring greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere. CO2 and H2O are important greenhouse gases that significantly contribute to the carbon cycle and global radiation budget on Earth. NRC Decadal Survey recommends a mission for Active Sensing of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS). 2 micron laser is a viable IPDA transmitter to measure CO2 and H2O column density from space. The objective is to demonstrate a first airborne direct detection 2 micron IPDA lidar for CO2 and H2O measurements.

Yu, Jirong↗

DOE OSTI2021

Whole-soil warming decreases abundance and modifies the community structure of microorganisms in the subsoil but not in surface soil

Abstract. The microbial community composition in subsoils remains understudied, and it is largely unknown whether subsoil microorganisms show a similar response to global warming as microorganisms at the soil surface do. Since microorganisms are the key drivers of soil organic carbon decomposition, this knowledge gap causes uncertainty in the predictions of future carbon cycling in the subsoil carbon pool (> 50 % of the soil organic carbon stocks are below 30 cm soil depth). In the Blodgett Forest field warming experiment (California, USA) we investigated how +4 ∘C warming in the whole-soil profile to 100 cm soil depth for 4.5 years has affected the abundance and community structure of microorganisms. We used proxies for bulk microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and functional microbial groups based on lipid biomarkers, such as phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). With depth, the microbial biomass decreased and the community composition changed. Our results show that the concentration of PLFAs decreased with warming in the subsoil (below 30 cm) by 28 % but was not affected in the topsoil. Phospholipid fatty acid concentrations changed in concert with soil organic carbon. The microbial community response to warming was depth dependent. The relative abundance of Actinobacteria increased in warmed subsoil, and Gram+ bacteria in subsoils adapted their cell membrane structure to warming-induced stress, as indicated by the ratio of anteiso to iso branched PLFAs. Our results show for the first time that subsoil microorganisms can be more affected by warming compared to topsoil microorganisms. These microbial responses could be explained by the observed decrease in subsoil organic carbon concentrations in the warmed plots. A decrease in microbial abundance in warmed subsoils might reduce the magnitude of the respiration response over time. The shift in the subsoil microbial community towards more Actinobacteria might disproportionately enhance the degradation of previously stable subsoil carbon, as this group is able to metabolize complex carbon sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗