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At least 397 records · Page 22

Continental-pelagic carbonate partitioning and the global carbonate-silicate cycle

A carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle model is developed and used to explore dynamic and climatic consequences of constraints on shallow-water carbonate burial and possible carbon loss to the mantle associated with sea-floor subduction. The model partitions carbonate deposition between shallow-water and deep-water environments and includes carbon fluxes between the mantle and lithosphere. When total lithospheric carbonate mass is constant, there are two stable steady states, one in which the carbonate burial flux is mostly continental and another in which it is mostly pelagic. The continental steady state is characterized by a low metamorphic CO2 flux to the atmosphere and predominantly shallow-water carbonate burial. The pelagic steady state is characterized by a high metamorphic CO2 flux and predominantly deep-water carbonate burial. For reasonable parameter values, when total lithospheric carbonate mass is allowed to vary, the model oscillates between predominantly continental and predominantly pelagic modes. Model results suggest that carbonate deposition patterns established during the Cenozoic may be pushing the Earth system from the continental to the pelagic mode on a time scale of 10(8) yr, with a possible consequent order-of-magnitude increase in the metamorphic CO2 flux to the atmosphere.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

Projecting Changes in Societally Impactful Northeastern U.S. Snowstorms

The northeastern United States is vulnerable to many impacts from snowfall-producing winter cyclones that are amplified by the proximity of population centers to storm tracks. Historically, climatic snowfall assessments have centered around seasonal means even though local impacts typically occur at scales of hours to days. To detect snowstorms at the event level, an objective algorithm is defined based on the Regional Snowfall Index. The metric collocates storm snowfall with population to produce statistics of snowstorms with societal impacts. When applied to the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, broad declines in snowstorm frequency are projected by the later 21 st century. These decreases are primarily due to a warmer atmosphere less conducive to snowfall as the predominant precipitation type. However, we note reductions are less significant for major events, since more hostile thermodynamic environments are partially offset by increased precipitation associated with cyclones that dynamically drive high-impact snowstorms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Identification of Residual Oil Zones in the Williston and Powder River Basins

The goal of this project by the Energy & Environmental Research Center was to systematically assess the petroleum systems of the Williston and Powder River Basins (PRB) for prospective residual oil zones (ROZs) through a geologic process modeling approach. This approach models the evolution of a sedimentary basin to predict if, when, and where reservoirs were charged with hydrocarbons. Suspected ROZs identified by this approach were evaluated for their potential oil recovery using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and for associated CO 2 storage. ROZs are naturally waterflooded portions of oil reservoirs with oil saturations between 25% and 40% but are at irreducible oil saturation levels with respect to water, rendering the reservoirs uneconomic using conventional recovery methods. However, using CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR), substantial amounts of oil can be recovered from ROZs while simultaneously storing CO 2 . ROZs were originally identified and defined in the Permian Basin of West Texas but have since been identified or speculated in several geologic basins, including the Williston Basin and PRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogeochemical Modelling for Groundwater in Neyveli Aquifer, Tamil Nadu, India, Using PHREEQC: A Case Study

Sophisticated geochemical models have been used to describe and predict the chemical behaviour of complex natural waters and also to protect the groundwater resources from future contamination. One such model is used to study the hydrogeochemical complexity in a mine area. Extraction of groundwater from the coastal aquifer has been in progress for decades to mine lignite in Neyveli. This extraction has developed a cone of depression around the mine site. This cone of depression is well established by the geochemical nature of groundwater in the region. 42 groundwater samples were collected in a definite pattern and they were analysed for major cations, anions and trace elements. The saturation index (SI) of the groundwater for carbonate, sulphate and silica minerals was studied and it has been correlated with the recharge and the discharge regions. The SI of alumino silicates has been used to decipher the stage of weathering. The SI{sub Gibbsite} - SI{sub K-feldspar} has been spatially distributed and the regions of discharge and recharge were identified. Then two flow paths A1 and A2 were identified and inverse modelling using PHREEQC were carried out to delineate the geochemical process that has taken place from recharge to discharge. The initial and final solutions in both the flow paths were correlated with the thermodynamic silicate stability diagrams of groundwater and it was found that the state of thermodynamic stability of the end solutions along the flow path were approaching similar states of equilibrium at the discharge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Preliminary result of teleseismic double-difference relocation of earthquakes in the Molucca collision zone with a 3D velocity model

We have relocated hypocenters of earthquakes occurring in the Molucca collision zone and surrounding region taken from the BMKG catalog using teleseismic double-difference relocation algorithm (teletomoDD). We used P-wave arrival times of local, regional, and teleseismic events recorded at 304 recording stations. Over 7,000 earthquakes were recorded by the BMKG seismographicnetworkin the study region from April, 2009 toJune, 2014. We used a 3D regional-global nested velocity modelresulting fromprevious global tomographystudy. In this study, the3D seismic velocity model was appliedto theIndonesian region, whilethe1D seismicvelocity model (ak135)wasused for regions outside of Indonesia. Our relocation results show a better improvement in travel-time RMS residuals comparedto those of the BMKG catalog.Ourresultsalso show that relocation shifts were dominated intheeast-west direction, whichmaybeinfluenced by theexistingvelocity anomaly related to the reversed V-shaped slabbeneaththestudy region. Our eventrelocation results refine the geometry of slabs beneath the Halmahera and Sangihe arcs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Low-Temperature Plasticity in Olivine: Grain Size, Strain Hardening, and the Strength of the Lithosphere

Plastic deformation of olivine at relatively low temperatures (i.e., low-temperature plasticity) likely controls the strength of the lithospheric mantle in a variety of geodynamic contexts. Unfortunately, laboratory estimates of the strength of olivine deforming by low-temperature plasticity vary considerably from study to study, limiting confidence in extrapolation to geological conditions. Here we present the results of deformation experiments on olivine single crystals and aggregates conducted in a deformation-DIA at confining pressures of 5 to 9 GPa and temperatures of 298 to 1473 K. These results demonstrate that, under conditions in which low-temperature plasticity is the dominant deformation mechanism, fine-grained samples are stronger at yield than coarse-grained samples, and the yield stress decreases with increasing temperature. All samples exhibited significant strain hardening until an approximately constant flow stress was reached. The magnitude of the increase in stress from the yield stress to the flow stress was independent of grain size and temperature. Cyclical loading experiments revealed a Bauschinger effect, wherein the initial yield strength is higher than the yield strength during subsequent cycles. Both strain hardening and the Bauschinger effect are interpreted to result from the development of back stresses associated with long-range dislocation interactions. We calibrated a constitutive model based on these observations, and extrapolation of the model to geological conditions predicts that the strength of the lithosphere at yield is low compared to previous experimental predictions but increases significantly with increasing strain. Our results resolve apparent discrepancies in recent observational estimates of the strength of the oceanic lithosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hotspot evolution and Venusian tectonic style

Because hotspots represent an important manifestation of heat loss on Venus, their geological evolution is of fundamental importance for any attempt to understand Venusian tectonics. Eistla Regio is an approximately 7500-km-long, moderately elevated region inferred to overlie one or more large mantle upwellings or hotspots. It also contains many shield volcanoes and coronae believed due to the rise of thermal plumes in the mantle. Central Eistla Regio includes two large volcanoes, Sappho and Anala, and several coronae in close proximity. Detailed mapping in this region results in two conclusions of tectonic significance: (1) Sappho and Anala occur near the intersection of two major extensional deformation zones, and (2) the coronae are older than the large volcanoes. Several of the coronae occur as a chain along Guor Linea, one of the major extensional deformation zones. Stratigraphic relationships indicate that the coronae began forming very soon after the emplacement of the widespread regional plains materials. Thus Central Eistla Regio was the site of a swarm of plumes that first formed coronae and then later formed shield volcanoes. The expected result of such a swarm would be thermal thinning of the elastic lithosphere with time. However, model results, geological observations, and gravity data suggest that the change from coronae to shield volcanoes was accompanied by a thickening of the lithosphere with time. This thickening is interpreted to be the result of global cooling of the lithosphere following the most recent episode of near-global resurfacing. The global cooling must have occurred faster than local heating of the lithosphere due to the impingement of thermal plumes.

Mcgill, George E.↗

Incorporating geological structure into sensitivity analysis of subsurface contaminant transport

Simulating subsurface contaminant transport at the kilometer-scale often entails modeling reactive flow and transport within and through complex geologic structures. These structures are typically meshed by hand and as a result geologic structure is usually represented by one or a few deterministically generated geological models for uncertainty studies of flow and transport in the subsurface. Uncertainty in geologic structure can have a significant impact on contaminant transport. In this study, the impact of geologic structure on contaminant tracer transport in a shale formation is investigated for a simplified generic deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. An open-source modeling framework is used to perform a sensitivity analysis study on transport of two tracers from a generic spent nuclear fuel repository with uncertain location of the interfaces between the stratum of the geologic structure. The automated workflow uses sampled realizations of the geological structural model in addition to uncertain flow parameters in a nested sensitivity analysis. Concentration of the tracers at observation points within, in line with, and downstream of the repository are used as the quantities of interest for determining model sensitivity to input parameters and geological realization. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the location of strata interfaces in the geological structure has a first-order impact on tracer transport in the example shale formation, and that this impact may be greater than that of the uncertain flow parameters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Geothermal Direct-Use Applications for the District Energy System in Bucharest, Romania

The city of Bucharest, Romania, hosts the second-largest district energy system (DES) in the world. Geothermal resources can be considered as a supplementary heat source to support the demand for domestic hot water and space heating in the winter and shoulder seasons. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) has conducted a study that considers geothermal energy to serve a fraction of the existing district heating network operated by Electrocentrale Bucure?ti (ELCEN), the utility operating the DES. Lower Cretaceous and Jurassic limestones make up the main geothermal aquifer underlying Bucharest, which hosts temperatures suitable for district heating (up to 90 degrees C to the north of the city). Anomalous geothermal gradients have been observed to the north of the city, where a pumped well has produced 82 degrees C brine at the wellhead to feed the Therme Bucharest Spa. An anomalous gradient has also been reported to the southeast of the city (35 degrees C/km). NLR modeled the building heating loads of a small portion of the DES (a block of nine prototypical buildings) in its Urban Renewable Building and Neighborhood Optimization (URBANopt ) platform. To simulate meeting a baseload benchmark of 20 MWth deliverable to a small portion of the DES, the NLR team used GEOPHIRES to model production scenarios for (1) hydrothermal systems coupled with heat pumps targeting the main geothermal aquifer in the north, (2) enhanced geothermal systems targeting hot dry rock in the southeast, and (3) huff-and-puff systems targeting a gradient of 25 degrees C/km. Finally, NLR conducted a high-level sensitivity study around the techno-economics of these systems. The outcomes of this work indicate that hot dry rock geothermal resources that can deliver at least 90 degrees C hot water to the Geothermal District Energy System (GeoDES) offer a possible solution for supplemental geothermal heat delivered to the existing DES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Vertical deformation at western part of Sumatra

This research tries to make advancement in GPS signal processing to estimate the interseismic vertical deformation field at western part of Sumatra Island. The data derived by Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) from Badan Informasi Geospasial (BIG) between 2010 and 2012. GPS Analyze at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (GAMIT) software and Global Kalman Filter (GLOBK) software are used to process the GPS signal to estimate the vertical velocities of the CGPS station. In order to minimize noise due to atmospheric delay, Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1) is used as atmospheric parameter model and include daily IONEX file provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) as well. It improves GAMIT daily position accuracy up to 0.8 mm. In a second step of processing, the GLOBK is used in order to estimate site positions and velocities in the ITRF08 reference frame. The result shows that the uncertainties of estimated displacement velocity at all CGPS stations are smaller than 1.5 mm/yr. The subsided deformation patterns are seen at the northern and southern part of west Sumatra. The vertical deformation at northern part of west Sumatra indicates postseismic phase associated with the 2010 and 2012 Northern Sumatra earthquakes and also the long-term postseismic associated with the 2004 and 2005 Northern Sumatra earthquakes. The uplifted deformation patterns are seen from Bukit Tinggi to Seblat which indicate a long-term interseismic phase after the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake and 2010 Mentawai earthquake. GANO station shows a subsidence at rate 12.25 mm/yr, indicating the overriding Indo-Australia Plate which is dragged down by the subducting Southeast Asian Plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact Cratering Calculations

We examined the von Mises and Mohr-Coulomb strength models with and without damage effects and developed a model for dilatancy. The models and results are given in O'Keefe et al. We found that by incorporating damage into the models that we could in a single integrated impact calculation, starting with the bolide in the atmosphere produce final crater profiles having the major features found in the field measurements. These features included a central uplift, an inner ring, circular terracing and faulting. This was accomplished with undamaged surface strengths of approximately 0.1 GPa and at depth strengths of approximately 1.0 GPa. We modeled the damage in geologic materials using a phenomenological approach, which coupled the Johnson-Cook damage model with the CTH code geologic strength model. The objective here was not to determine the distribution of fragment sizes, but rather to determine the effect of brecciated and comminuted material on the crater evolution, fault production, ejecta distribution, and final crater morphology.

Ahrens, Thomas J.↗

Assessment of CO 2 Storage Potential in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs With Dual–Porosity Models

Naturally Fractured Reservoirs (NFR’s) have received little attention as potential CO 2 storage sites. Two main facts deter from storage projects in fractured reservoirs: (1) CO 2 tends to be nonwetting in target formations and capillary forces will keep CO 2 in the fractures, which typically have low pore volume; and (2) the high conductivity of the fractures may lead to increased spatial spreading of the CO 2 plume. Numerical simulations are a powerful tool to understand the physics behind brine-CO 2 flow in NFR’s. Dual-porosity models are typically used to simulate multiphase flow in fractured formations. However, existing dual-porosity models are based on crude approximations of the matrix-fracture fluid transfer processes and often fail to capture the dynamics of fluid exchange accurately. Therefore, more accurate transfer functions are needed in order to evaluate the CO 2 transfer to the matrix. This work presents an assessment of CO 2 storage potential in NFR’s using dual-porosity models. We investigate the impact of a system of fractures on storage in a saline aquifer, by analyzing the time scales of brine drainage by CO 2 in the matrix blocks and the maximum CO 2 that can be stored in the rock matrix. A new model to estimate drainage time scales is developed and used in a transfer function for dual-porosity simulations. Furthermore, we then analyze how injection rates should be limited in order to avoid early spill of CO 2 (lost control of the plume) on a conceptual anticline model. Numerical simulations on the anticline show that naturally fractured reservoirs may be used to store CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integration of Large-Scale Electrical Imaging into Geological Framework Development and Refinement

Geologic framework models (GFMs) are critical to the construction of reliable simulation models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. To support GFM development, direct information (e.g., core samples, fluid samples, hydraulic testing) tends to be sparse and separated by large distances relative to the spatial scales of aquifer heterogeneity. There are additional challenges associated with highly contaminated legacy waste sites, where drilling is particularly costly, and invasive sampling requires specialized handling and disposal of hazardous materials. At these sites in particular, non-invasive geophysical imaging can play an important role in filling spatial gaps between boreholes and reducing characterization costs by optimizing and minimizing the number of necessary boreholes. Here this paper presents a case study demonstrating the use of large-scale (> 30 km 2 ) electrical mapping to identify hydrostratigraphy and potential paleochannels at the Hanford Site, located in Washington State, USA. In two field campaigns, over 36 line-kilometers of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data were collected along 14 transects. ERT surveys were sited and performed to image critical aspects (e.g., paleochannels, stratigraphic contacts) of the subsurface, demonstrating a general workflow for integrating ERT with GFM development. Inconsistencies between the GFM and ERT were catalogued to provide a basis for future site characterization using complementary geophysical methods and (or) direct sampling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SUPCRTBL: A revised and extended thermodynamic dataset and software package of SUPCRT92

The computer-enabled thermodynamic database associated with SUPCRT92 (Johnson et al., 1992) enables the calculation of the standard molal thermodynamic properties of minerals, gases, aqueous species, and reactions for a wide range of temperatures and pressures. However, new data on the thermodynamic properties of both aqueous species and minerals have become available since the database’s initial release in 1992 and its subsequent updates. Here, in light of these developments, we have expanded SUPCRT92’s thermodynamic dataset and have modified the accompanying computer code for thermodynamic calculations by using newly available properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗