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Scalable Predictive And Risk Technologies

The research involves developing scalable technologies for risk-informed predictive analytics to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop technologies to scale risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms across different plant assets at the plant site and across the nuclear fleet. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation using plant operation data 2. Federated and Transfer learning model 3. Feature group based Multi-kernel SVM 4. Three state markov model

Manjunatha, KoushikAraseethota↗

Non-Intrusive Measurements Using Femtosecond Laser in Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Jet

Femto-second (fs) lasers offer state-of-the art non-intrusive diagnostic capabilities in plasma flow environments. The diagnostics in plasma flows using a fs-laser that are relevant to this proposal include Two-photon Absorption Laser Induced Fluorescence (TALIF) for measuring the number density of an atomic species, and Femto-second Laser Electronic Excitation Tagging (FLEET) for performing velocity measurements in plasma flows. Various aspects of these diagnostics using fs-lasers are still an active domain of research. The TALIF technique has been used to measure the number density of atomic species in various plasma flow environments like atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ) and arc-jet flows. This technique utilizes a fs-laser to excite an atomic species and the subsequent relaxation process through fluorescence is recorded to make measurements. A narrow band-pass filter is used to isolate the fluorescence signal that is in the infra-red regime. However, broad-band background emissions can potentially pass through the filter and induce noise in the TALIF signal. Particularly, arc-jet plasma flows inherently contain background emissions. In such plasma flow environments, in addition to the filter, the background-subtraction technique will play an important role in reducing the noise that is induced in the number density measurements using TALIF. The proposed research focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of a background-subtraction technique by measuring atomic oxygen using a femtosecond (fs) TALIF in APPJ with induced background emissions and comparing measurements obtained without inducing the emissions. Therefore, by quantifying the changes in the signal-to-noise ratio caused by a background-subtraction technique applied for APPJ, it will enable a better understanding of the uncertainties in the background subtracted fs-TALIF measurements for arc-jet plasma flows. In addition to this, FLEET will be used to obtain velocity in the APPJ, and the impact of background emissions will be analyzed. Under this effort, the experimenters and research personnel will gain the technical know-how in the operational and theoretical aspects of the advanced fs-laser-based diagnostic techniques. The knowledge gained in this process will then also directly be applied to a separate ONR funded project at the Aerodynamics Research Center (ARC), UT Arlington, related to arc-jet flow characterization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sustainable Public Transport: Providing Responsive, On-Demand Service with Clean Energy

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) uses the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) as a metric and a lens to guide applied research into high performance public mobility. In the current initiative to abate global warming, the US needs not only zero-emission vehicles in the transit fleet (such as buses and shuttles) but also time- and cost-effective services to connect people with goods, services and employment toward a high-quality of life. Our current transportation system is overly dependent on personally-owned automobiles for high quality mobility, with public modes being less viable in many areas. Simply electrifying the drivetrains of existing public transit modes will fail to improve the quality of mobility for those that do not have access to private automobiles. The slow rebound by transit from the pandemic reveals the need to reinvent public transit service. Using the MEP lens, NREL researchers have tracked various novel developments in the public mobility space, with the confluence of shared, on-demand transit (ODT) services using light duty vehicles emerging as a key enabler of high-efficiency public mobility. Deployments such as those in Arlington, TX, Dallas, TX, Fort Erie, ON, and Innisfil, ON showcase the use of fleets of light-duty vehicles as the basis for community circulation and first/last mile to intra-regional transit. ODT services have demonstrated improvements in being more time efficient for riders, more energy efficient in operation (even before the introduction of fully electric vehicles), as well as being cost effective. It appears that aspects of the long-awaited promise of Personal Rapid Transit from the 1970s are beginning to be realized through ODT deployments, leveraging transportation network company (TNC) logistics, popularized by Uber and Lyft, but applied to public mobility. Currently, manually driven ODT operations are already cost competitive with traditional transit systems on a cost per ride basis, and full automation promises to reduce costs by 50% while providing additional safety and verified customer service. Connecting these ODT systems with efficient and effective intra-regional backbone transit service is the next step, with transit agencies like DART providing early results. This discussion will walk through the evidence for this postulated outcome and show results from a series of case-studies.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Development of Human and Technology Integration Guidance for Work Optimization and Effective Use of Information

Existing nuclear power contributes to roughly 20% of the total electricity generation, and consistently provides the highest capacity factor of any other electricity generating resource in the United States. Despite these advantages, the existing nuclear power plant fleet in the United States has been enduring significant challenges in providing electricity in a cost-competitive manner, which has ultimately threatened the long-term economic viability of these plants. A major contributor to these increased operating and maintenance costs has been the continued reliance of a large workforce who perform their work under an operating model that has largely remained unchanged since the commissioning of these nuclear power plants. Unfortunately, while this operating model has provided safe and reliable electricity, other industries have already began transforming their workforce through the use of advanced digital technology and automation that has reduced their operating and maintenance cost significantly. In order for the United States nuclear industry to remain economically viable, a similar transformation must be considered in which digital technologies and automation capabilities are brought in to support key plant functions across all work functions across plant operation, maintenance, and support. To effectively integrate digital technology and automation in the existing nuclear power plant operating model, a multidisciplinary approach is needed that addresses technological and sociotechnical (i.e., human and technology integration) considerations. This report describes an extension to the human and technology integration methodology, herein referred to as Human Integration and Technology Task Force for Work Management Optimization (HITT), to support the safe, reliable, and efficient use of proposed innovations with the intended users in their intended environment to perform their intended tasks. By effectively incorporating human and technology integration into a plant modernization effort by using HITT, we believe that a utility can significantly improve work performance and overall workforce quality of life. For instance, if HITT is performed to optimize work management, scheduling performance and scope stability can be improved by up to 10%. HITT enables these benefits through developing a rich understanding of the work being performed, the utility’s vision, and the opportunities that provide greatest value to optimize performance through a 10-step process illustrated below as a quick guide. The quick guide contains links in the righthand side of each step that allows for navigation to the detailed section (Section 4) of HITT in this technical report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2021 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2020, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

2021↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2023 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2022, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

analysis↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2022 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2022 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2021, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

2022↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2024 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2023, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, net value, and interconnection queue data.

analysis↗

Optimization of a Mixed Fleet of Aerial Drones for Medical Supplies: A Case Study of Blood Delivery Logistics

Aerial drones have emerged as an innovative solution for faster transportation of time-sensitive items (e.g., emergency medical supplies), potentially reducing the transmission of contagious diseases and enhancing healthcare availability through contactless autonomous delivery. We study fleet sizing and efficient scheduling of a mixed fleet of drones for delivering time-sensitive medical items having distinct release and due times to minimize the required fleet size and fleet composition, the required number of additional batteries, and the total energy consumption. We continuously track the remaining battery energy of drones to determine the optimal timing for battery replacement, rather than replacing the battery at each node. Using actual drone flight test data, we employed a machine learning (ML) method to estimate the energy consumption of different drone types during flight segments for different operating parameters. We present a novel mixed-integer programming model to efficiently formulate the problem that integrates the estimated energy consumption functions from ML. We propose a new greedy heuristic (GH) algorithm and a customized genetic algorithm (GA) for solving large-scale instances of this problem faster. Results demonstrate that the GH algorithm is substantially faster than the accelerated CPLEX and the GA, while sacrificing the solution quality by a small amount. Results based on an actual blood sample delivery case study from Pendleton, Oregon, United States, show that using a mixed fleet of drones reduces the total cost and total energy consumption up to 18.18% and 28.7%, respectively, compared to using a homogeneous fleet.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis of PV Fleet Performance in Western United States During August 2020 Extreme Heat Wave

Starting in June 2020 through the end of that year, the western and central United States experienced a widespread heat wave and drought, which resulted in US$5.44 billion (CPI-adjusted) worth of damages. The ongoing heat and drought produced record large wildfires across the region, responsible for an additional US$19.9 billion in damage. These natural disasters directly impacted the energy system in the western US, leading to power blackouts in August 2020. In this work, we analyze the NLR PV Fleets data set, focusing on the geographic area covered by the Western Coordinating Council (WECC). We find that over the 10-day period from August 14 through 24, the median PV system produced 12% lower energy than expected, with some locations experiencing total losses of around 30%. Analyzing the spatial-temporal structure of the data and supplementing with limited operational current and voltage data where available, we find that system underperformance was more strongly impacted by irradiance reduction from wildfire smoke rather than by the high heat itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Transition Core Modeling for Extended Enrichment & Accident-Tolerant Fuels Using Polaris/PARCS

Commercial light water reactor (LWR) operators and fuel vendors are currently interested in increasing the low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel enrichments from the current limit of 5.0 $^w/_o$ $^{235}U$ up to 10 $^ w/_o$ $^{235}U$ (referred to as "LEU+") in their current fleets; they are also interested in using accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) with both LEU and LEU+ fuel. This report aims to identify modeling challenges and accuracy concerns in transition core analysis using the SCALE Polaris lattice physics code and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission core simulator PARCS. At the time this study was started, no publicly available LEU+ core designs existed for boiling water reactor (BWR) or pressurized water reactor (PWR) systems. Therefore, fuel lattices were shuffled within a multi-assembly model to mimic neutronically challenging lattice combinations seen in transition cores, such as a fresh LEU+ lattice next to depleted LEU lattices. In addition to multi-assembly models, whole-core BWR transition core calculations were performed for ATF and LEU+ fuel using an existing Hatch-1 Cycle 3 core model. A whole-core BWR model was chosen due to the more heterogeneous core designs compared to those for a PWR core. Since the original core is an old checkerboard core design and no core or fuel design optimization was performed for the modeled fuel types, these core calculations were intended only to provide: (1) Comparisons of core characteristics of interest, such as the pin power distributions and peaking factors, Doppler temperature coefficients (DTCs), and control blade worths (CBWs) under challenging core designs, (2) Identification of reactor physics challenges in modeling LEU+ and ATF cores, and (3) A stress test for the Polaris/PARCS two-step modeling approach, including characterization of the relative accuracy for predicting characteristics of interest such as pin power distributions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Initial Assessment of CTF for Time-at-Temperature Applications

The US nuclear industry is interested in improving the economics of their fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) by uprating US plants. One option being considered is to regain lost margin from overly conservative fuel safety limits. The current limit requires avoidance of critical heat flux (CHF) and prevents further operation of fuel that experiences a dry-out in boiling water reactors (BWRs) or departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs); however, it has been shown that temporary, mild dry-out of the fuel does not necessarily increase the risk of fuel failure during its normal anticipated operating life. Such mild dry-out or DNB events may occur during a plant anticipated operational occurrence (AOO), such as a locked rotor in a PWR or a pump trip in a BWR. The time-at-temperature (TAT) approach to regulating fuel operation aims to demonstrate that the fuel rod’s integrity is not challenged during such a mild transient that leads to CHF in which the fuel operates at an elevated temperature for a brief period of time. However, implementing this approach will require extensive fuel material experimental data, as well as supporting modeling and simulation (M&S) predictions, to ensure that the predicted fuel response during AOOs, with all applicable uncertainty considered, will not threaten the safety of the fuel during the transient or the remainder of its anticipated lifecycle. To address this need, a comprehensive effort is being proposed that includes generating cladding material data under TAT conditions, assessment of available code capabilities for TAT conditions, development of new mechanistic models, and demonstration of the M&S capabilities for AOOs of interest. This will require a joint effort between the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) and Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) programs, as well as close collaboration with nuclear industry stakeholders. The outcome of this collaboration will result in development and assessment of capabilities that can be used by the nuclear industry to support qualification of a TAT-based fuel failure criteria safety limit. This report focuses on the thermal hydraulics (T/H) modeling capabilities and summarizes currently available data for validating the T/H subchannel code CTF for TAT conditions, as well as preliminary assessment results of the code. The initial assessment also resulted in implementation of an alternative post-CHF heat transfer package, which has been shown to significantly improve accuracy. This report is not a final assessment and does not consider all available validation data; it is intended that a future assessment will more fully validate the code for this application.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Performance Characterization of InCharge™ ICE-66 V2X Bidirectional DC Fast Charger

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology extends the role of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle’s (PHEV) and Battery Electric Vehicle’s (BEV) batteries beyond transportation by enabling bidirectional power transfer between the vehicle's onboard energy storage and the utility grid. Modern battery-powered vehicles are equipped with high-capacity battery packs that remain stationary and underutilized for the majority of their operational life. A vehicle used for daily commuting may be parked and connected to charging infrastructure for 18–20 hours per day, representing a significant untapped energy resource. When considered at scale, the aggregated storage capacity of a modest fleet of 10–15 vehicles within a single parking facility can reach the MWh range, sufficient to partially offset peak demand for a mid-size commercial building or contribute meaningful ancillary services to the local grid. The ability to charge during off-peak periods when electricity prices are low and discharge during peak demand when prices are high positions EV batteries as distributed energy arbitrage assets, with the potential to offset vehicle ownership and charging costs. Beyond energy arbitrage, V2G-capable assets can provide ancillary grid services through active and reactive power injections. Active power supports grid frequency regulation, while reactive power supports local voltage regulation. Together, these capabilities establish V2G as a technically promising and economically relevant pathway toward greater integration of battery-powered vehicles into the broader energy system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) for Transportation Hubs (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the award number EE0008524. The project develops the Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) platform as the next-generation transportation solution based on autonomous electric vehicles (AEV) serving passenger trips from and to urban transportation hubs, to substantially reduce transportation energy consumption. Extensive data collection and analyses were first conducted to understand the demand patterns and energy consumption of hub-based on-road trips. Then, a data-driven framework that consists of an analytical module and a simulation module was proposed. For the analytical module, five planning + operation tools were developed to support the planning and energy-efficient operations of urban AEV services: the charging station planning that robotically allocates charging supplies based on the stationary charging demand distribution; the transit planning and demand adaptive scheduling model that efficiently generates\ candidate transit routes from hubs to other places and dynamically adjusts the transit time table to fit the current demand; the online energy-efficient routing that learns the energy-optimal paths from observations of link-level energy consumption in real-time; the hub-based ridesharing that matches trip requests together with account for the uncertainty of future trip demand and vehicle supply; and finally, the integrated demand prediction and anomaly detection pipeline that leverages the flight/train time table and support other planning/operation tools. To demonstrate the performance of these tools, a scalable high-performance agent-based simulator was built. We divided the urban space into multiple service zones where each zone was considered as an agent for passenger generation and vehicle charging. Two types of AEV agents were coded to model two types of mobility services: AEV taxi and AEV transit. For the AEV taxi, the team implemented the functions of pickup/drop-off passengers, energy-efficient routing, ridesharing, fleet rebalancing, and recharging. For the AEV bus, the team implemented the functions of demand-adaptive route scheduling, passenger boarding, and recharging. A high-performance computing framework was introduced to receive various profiling information (such as link energy updates, vehicle speed) from the simulator instances and communicate the operational commands back to the instances. The numerical experiments show that each of the proposed operational algorithms can reduce energy consumption and improve system efficiency. Furthermore, there exists the need to collectively consider multiple planning + operational strategies as multiple strategies can influence each other in terms of performance impacts. Recommendations for future work related to AEV planning and simulation are discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Synthesis Roadmap for Actinide Chloride Salts

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are among the main advanced nuclear reactor types at the forefront of development by industry, with the support of the US government, for the next fleet of nuclear reactors to support the demand for energy in the coming decades. MSRs are highly unique because they are cooled and typically also fueled by molten salt. This quality brings about safety benefits such as low-pressure operation and self-stabilization of the neutron flux, operational benefits such as high-temperature operation and the ability for online refueling, and fuel and waste management benefits thanks to the flexibility of post-processing of molten salts and reprocessing options that involve removal of fission products and actinide separation. In fact, domestic deployment of molten salt (or molten salt–cooled) reactors is an approaching reality: a handful of molten salt reactor developers are planning to operate demonstration-scale reactors, as a step toward commercial-scale power reactors, within the decade. For example, Natura Resources received a construction permit in September 2024 for the deployment of MSR-1, which is a graphite-moderated thermal spectrum reactor, at Abilene Christian University. Also, TerraPower, in a collaborative effort with Southern Company and Idaho National Laboratory (INL), received approval from DOE in 2023 to proceed with the construction of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), a homogeneous chloride fast reactor at INL, and has begun assembly of system components. There are several other examples of developers at different stages of development of their own unique MSR designs (Jenet et al., 2025). As developers are in the process of obtaining approvals for their designs, deploying demonstration-scale reactors, and planning for their commercial-scale power reactors, there is a critical supply chain need for the synthesis of fuel for these reactors that must be addressed. The challenge generally is three-fold: (1) the quantity of fueled salt needed for these reactors is extraordinarily high (>100s of kilograms), but demonstrations of scaled-up techniques for fueled salt synthesis are significantly more limited than demonstrations of lab-scale syntheses; (2) each developer has a unique reactor design, which means different actinide halide elements in different carrier salts must be synthesized; and (3) there is a need for particularly high-purity salt so as to ensure the long-term operability of these reactors with minimal degradation to salt-wetted components, which necessitates synthesis techniques with high levels of quality control, repeatability, and well-characterized precursor and reactant materials. It is crucial that this supply chain challenge be addressed by demonstrating synthesis techniques that are scalable, de-risked, and well-documented so that these technologies may be adopted and utilized by industry to support the fueling needs of MSRs that are to come online within the next 10 years. With this supply chain challenge clearly defined for the developing MSR industry, it is important to consider that addressing such a challenge is oftentimes complex and context-dependent. There is not necessarily a single synthesis technique that can be scaled up and adopted to address the needs of all MSR developers; the synthesis approach that may be viable for producing a desired fuel salt will be entirely dependent on the exact salt composition needed, the quantity needed, purity needed, the refueling and waste plans, and the availability of a carrier salt for the fuel. Therefore, it is important to consider more broadly what synthesis techniques are available and have been demonstrated to understand the benefits, challenges, and general nuances that should be considered when evaluating a particular route for efficient production of high-purity fuel salts at scale.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗