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Progressing quality control in environmental impact assessment beyond legislative compliance: An evaluation of the IEMA EIA Quality Mark certification scheme

The effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) systems is contingent on a number of control mechanisms: procedural; judicial; evaluative; public and government agency; professional; and development aid agency. If we assume that procedural and judicial controls are guaranteed in developed EIA systems, then progressing effectiveness towards an acceptable level depends on improving the performance of other control mechanisms over time. These other control mechanisms are either absent, or are typically centrally controlled, requiring public finances; this we argue is an unpopular model in times of greater Government austerity. Here we evaluate a market-based mechanism for improving the performance of evaluative and professional control mechanisms, the UK Institute of Environmental Management and Assessments' EIA Quality Mark. We do this by defining dimensions of effectiveness for the purposes of our evaluation, and by identifying international examples of the approaches taken to delivering the other control measures to validate the approach taken in the EIA Quality Mark. We then evaluate the EIA Quality Mark, when used in combination with legal procedures and an active judiciary, against the effectiveness dimensions and use time-series analysis of registrant data to examine its ability to progress practice. We conclude that the EIA Quality Mark has merit as a model for a market-based mechanism, and may prove a more financially palatable approach for delivering effective EIA in mature systems in countries that lack centralised agency oversight. It may, therefore, be of particular interest to some Member States of the European Union for ensuring forthcoming certification requirements stemming from recent amendments to the EIA Directive. - Highlights: • Quality control mechanisms in EIA are identified. • Effectiveness of EIA is conceptualised for evaluation purposes. • The UK IEMA EIA Quality Mark is introduced as a market-based mechanism. • The EIA Quality Mark is found to progress quality in many, but not all, areas.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Developing energy flexibility in clusters of buildings: A critical analysis of barriers from planning to operation

This paper examines building energy flexibility at an aggregated level and addresses the main barriers and research gaps for the development of this resource across three design and development phases: market and policy, early planning and design, and operation. We review methodologies and tools and discuss barriers, challenges, and opportunities, incorporating policy, economic, technical, professional, and social perspectives. Although various legal and regulatory frameworks exist to foster the development of energy flexibility for small buildings, financing mechanisms are limited with a significant number of perceived risks undermining private investment. For the early planning and design phase, planners and designers lack appropriate tools and face interoperability challenges, which often results in insufficient consideration of demand response programs. The review of the operational phase highlighted the socio-technical challenges related to both the complexity of deployment and communication, as well as privacy and acceptability issues. Finally, the paper proposes a number of targeted research directions to address challenges and promote greater energy flexibility deployments, including capturing building demand side dynamics, improving baseline estimations and developing seamless connectivity between buildings and districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Climate Mitigation in Latin America: Implications for Energy and Land Use: Preface to the Special Section on the findings of the CLIMACAP-LAMP Project

The CLIMACAP-LAMP project, completed in December 2015, was an inter-model comparison exercise that focused on energy and climate change economics issues in Latin America. The project partners – co-financed by the EC / EuropeAid (CLIMACAP part) and EPA / USAID (LAMP part) and co-coordinated by respectively the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) – report their main and detailed findings in this Special Issue of Energy Economics, exclusively dedicated to climate mitigation, low-carbon development and implications for energy and land use in Latin America. Our research endeavor included several of the most prominent regional energy modeling groups from Latin America, as well as a representative set of global integrated assessment modeling groups from a number of institutions from Europe and the US. About two dozen universities, research groups and environmental or consulting organizations took part in the CLIMACAP-LAMP cross-model comparison project, from both sides of the Atlantic. Over a handful of workshops were organized over the past four years in several countries in Latin America, attended by between 30 and 50 participants from, amongst others, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the EU, and the US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil contamination from lead battery manufacturing and recycling in seven African countries

Highlights: • Soil lead contamination was found at lead battery recycling facilities in Africa. • Mean lead concentrations were 2600 mg/kg in soil on the outside of plants. • Lead pollution at these sites poses significant health risks to the public. • Lead contamination at these plants suggest that extensive remediation is warranted. Lead battery recycling is a growing hazardous industry throughout Africa. We investigated potential soil contamination inside and outside formal sector recycling plants in seven countries. We collected 118 soil samples at 15 recycling plants and one battery manufacturing site and analyzed them for total lead. Lead levels in soils ranged from < 40–140,000 mg/kg. Overall mean lead concentrations were ~23,200 mg/kg but, average lead levels were 22-fold greater for soil samples from inside plant sites than from those collected outside these facilities. Arithmetic mean lead concentrations in soil samples from communities surrounding these plants were ~2600 mg/kg. As the lead battery industry in Africa continues to expand, it is expected that the number and size of lead battery recycling plants will grow to meet the forecasted demand. There is an immediate need to address ongoing exposures in surrounding communities, emissions from this industry and to regulate site closure financing procedures to ensure that we do not leave behind a legacy of lead contamination that will impact millions in communities throughout Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution of storage monitoring – update in response to commercial and regulatory drivers

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in transition from first-of-a kind projects and research-orientated pilots to commercially-motivated applications. Monitoring results from many newly developed and planned large scale commercial projects are limited; however, it is worthwhile to assess their evolution and consider new strategies as part of an effort to assess and document best practices. Commercial monitoring is targeted to activities that comply with regulatory drivers and de-risk investments. Commercial monitoring also supports accounting that storage has occurred and is tied to project financing. It deals with long time frames and large volumes injected into multiple wells and multiple projects in favorable areas. We see developing trends toward reproducible workflows that systematically reduce risks and clarify expectations for oversight and long-term surveillance. Monitoring techniques showing increasing trends include injection zone pressure as a history-matching and compliance tool. To reduce cost and environmental impact of time-lapse seismic data collection, deploying new approaches and tools, such as use of fibre and installed sources are increasingly applied. Concern over the risk of induced seismicity by regulatory bodies and the general public has increased, which has also resulted in increased monitoring. Some techniques used in the early research phases have been sidelined or used only in restricted applications. For example, geochemical analyses in the injection zone as well as the environment are now being deployed less than it was in research-oriented programs, except in the US where it is required by the permitting process. Expectations of frequent area-wide near surface monitoring have also decreased.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Proton Beam Therapy and Accountable Care: The Challenges Ahead

Purpose: Proton beam therapy (PBT) centers have drawn increasing public scrutiny for their high cost. The behavior of such facilities is likely to change under the Affordable Care Act. We modeled how accountable care reform may affect the financial standing of PBT centers and their incentives to treat complex patient cases. Methods and Materials: We used operational data and publicly listed Medicare rates to model the relationship between financial metrics for PBT center performance and case mix (defined as the percentage of complex cases, such as pediatric central nervous system tumors). Financial metrics included total daily revenues and debt coverage (daily revenues − daily debt payments). Fee-for-service (FFS) and accountable care (ACO) reimbursement scenarios were modeled. Sensitivity analyses were performed around the room time required to treat noncomplex cases: simple (30 minutes), prostate (24 minutes), and short prostate (15 minutes). Sensitivity analyses were also performed for total machine operating time (14, 16, and 18 h/d). Results: Reimbursement under ACOs could reduce daily revenues in PBT centers by up to 32%. The incremental revenue gained by replacing 1 complex case with noncomplex cases was lowest for simple cases and highest for short prostate cases. ACO rates reduced this incremental incentive by 53.2% for simple cases and 41.7% for short prostate cases. To cover daily debt payments after ACO rates were imposed, 26% fewer complex patients were allowable at varying capital costs and interest rates. Only facilities with total machine operating times of 18 hours per day would cover debt payments in all scenarios. Conclusions: Debt-financed PBT centers will face steep challenges to remain financially viable after ACO implementation. Paradoxically, reduced reimbursement for noncomplex cases will require PBT centers to treat more such cases over cases for which PBT has demonstrated superior outcomes. Relative losses will be highest for those facilities focused primarily on treating noncomplex cases.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Scaling up the energy service company business: market status and company feedback in the Russian Federation

Many energy efficiency professionals have proposed using Energy Performance Contracts (EPCs) as a mechanism to improve public sector energy efficiency in countries with restrictive government budgets. However, in practice, most middle-income countries have used this mechanism only in a limited way. Russia offers an interesting case study because of its huge energy savings opportunities, increasing energy prices, robust political backing for public sector energy efficiency, and evolving legislation that supports EPCs. In 2009, the Russian Federation launched a program to reduce the energy intensity of the country’s large public sector, which accounts for 9 percent of Russia’s total energy consumption. To achieve energy efficiency goals, Russia experimented with its public procurement rules, adjusting them to encourage EPCs. We conducted structured interviews with Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) in Russia and supplemented them with online research. Our review shows that, to date, nearly 50 ESCOs signed about 150 contracts in public facilities. Most ESCO contracts in Russia are for 5 years, and they generally are small (under $100,000). ESCOs in Russia face a challenging environment, which leads to smaller projects. ESCOs also are concerned about costly and risky tender procedures, uncertainty regarding repayment from public facilities, the inability to expand projects, and financing. We discuss these challenges and propose potential solutions at policy and company levels. The ESCOs feedback regarding Russia’s experimental model can inform the country’s program for public sector energy efficiency and offer lessons for other countries attempting to develop the EPC mechanism.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Power demand risk models on milling machines

The measurement of power demand risks in manufacturing power systems will benefit manufacturers and the wider society. If the risks can be characterized using manufacturing parameters, manufacturers can better control risks originating in those parameters, select less power-risky production plans, and reduce utility costs and resource consumption. The measurement of risk can also help manufacturers and power suppliers to protect their power systems from unexpected disturbances. Existing measures of risk, however, do not consider time duration, and thus cannot accurately quantify the risks in manufacturing power systems; the risks of a period of high power demand must be evaluated with the duration of the surge. Therefore, new methods of measuring power demand risks are proposed, adapting measures drawn from the field of finance. With a focus on milling operations, processing power is shown to be a function of processing amount and processing time, and a power demand distribution is directly derived as a joint distribution of and A and T. A bivariate random variable model with copulas is applied to examine the correlation in the joint distribution. Then, based on evaluation of a probability distribution of power demand from and, new risk measures are introduced. Herein illustrative examples are provided to show how the proposed measures can quantify the power demand risks from milling machines, based on manufacturing parameters. Certain manufacturing parameters are found to affect overall power demand risks, including i) raw material type, ii) variability in processing time, and iii) correlation between and. In the examples, these three factors increase power demand risks by up to 108%, 67%, and 1% respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multilevel Monte Carlo for two phase flow and Buckley–Leverett transport in random heterogeneous porous media

Monte Carlo (MC) is a well known method for quantifying uncertainty arising for example in subsurface flow problems. Although robust and easy to implement, MC suffers from slow convergence. Extending MC by means of multigrid techniques yields the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. MLMC has proven to greatly accelerate MC for several applications including stochastic ordinary differential equations in finance, elliptic stochastic partial differential equations and also hyperbolic problems. In this study, MLMC is combined with a streamline-based solver to assess uncertain two phase flow and Buckley–Leverett transport in random heterogeneous porous media. The performance of MLMC is compared to MC for a two dimensional reservoir with a multi-point Gaussian logarithmic permeability field. The influence of the variance and the correlation length of the logarithmic permeability on the MLMC performance is studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tempered fractional calculus

Fractional derivatives and integrals are convolutions with a power law. Multiplying by an exponential factor leads to tempered fractional derivatives and integrals. Tempered fractional diffusion equations, where the usual second derivative in space is replaced by a tempered fractional derivative, govern the limits of random walk models with an exponentially tempered power law jump distribution. The limiting tempered stable probability densities exhibit semi-heavy tails, which are commonly observed in finance. Tempered power law waiting times lead to tempered fractional time derivatives, which have proven useful in geophysics. The tempered fractional derivative or integral of a Brownian motion, called a tempered fractional Brownian motion, can exhibit semi-long range dependence. The increments of this process, called tempered fractional Gaussian noise, provide a useful new stochastic model for wind speed data. A tempered fractional difference forms the basis for numerical methods to solve tempered fractional diffusion equations, and it also provides a useful new correlation model in time series.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

twoaxistracking – a python package for simulating self-shading of two-axis tracking solar collectors

Self-shading in fields of two-axis tracking collectors typically ranges from 1% to 6% of the annual incident irradiation. It is thus essential to account for shading in order to obtain accurate yield estimates and financing for such solar projects. The present study presents the free and open-source Python package twoaxistracking for simulating self-shading in fields of two-axis tracking collectors. The package is freely available at: https://github.com/pvlib/twoaxistracking. The main steps of the method and mathematical formulation are described. Additionally, a demonstration of how to use the package is presented. The shading calculation method excels over previous methods found in the literature in that it can: handle arbitrary aperture geometries and distinguish between the total and active areas; account for sloped ground and collectors with different heights within the same field; reduce computation time by skipping calculations at high solar elevation angles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Rattling Nucleons: New Developments in Active Interrogation of Special Nuclear Material

Active interrogation is a vigorous area of research and development due to its promise of offering detection and characterization capabilities of special nuclear material in environments where passive detection fails. The primary value added by active methods is the capability to penetrate shielding - special nuclear material itself, incidental materials, or intentional shielding - and advocates hope that active interrogation will provide a solution to the problem of detecting shielded uranium, which is at present the greatest obstacle to interdiction efforts. The technique also provides a unique benefit for quantifying nuclear material in high background-radiation environments, an area important for nuclear material safeguards and material accountancy. Progress has been made in the field of active interrogation on several fronts, most notably in the arenas of source development, systems integration, and the integration and exploitation of multiple fission and non-fission signatures. But penetration of interrogating radiation often comes at a cost, not only in terms of finance and dose but also in terms of induced backgrounds, system complexity, and extended measurement times (including set up and acquisition). These costs make the calculus for deciding to implement active interrogation more subtle than may be apparent. The purpose of this review is thus to examine existing interrogation methods, compare and contrast their attributes and limitations, and identify missions where active interrogation may hold the most promise.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Looking Beyond Bill Savings to Equity in Renewable Energy Microgrid Deployment

Microgrids powered by renewable energy can provide backup power to critical infrastructure during grid outages. These systems can also play an important role in advancing energy justice by providing economic, environmental, health, and resilience benefits for underserved communities. The value of microgrids is often measured by the economic savings and resilience provided, but there are other energy justice factors that should be considered. This paper describes a methodology for quantifying broader costs and benefits including utility bill savings, value of resilience, social cost of carbon, public health costs, and jobs associated with the construction and operation of microgrids. We evaluate these factors at three case study sites and find that including energy justice values in the cost-benefit analysis of microgrids can change investment decisions. When climate, health, resilience, and job creation are considered, cost-optimal microgrids include more renewable generation, leading to a 52-82% reduction in emissions and diesel fuel use. The net present values of the microgrids grow from negative $626,000-843,000 in the diesel only case to $10-16 million in the hybrid microgrid case and $12-19 million in the renewable microgrid case, indicating potential for greater microgrid deployment if energy justice values are incorporated in decision making. However, we also see large increases in capital expenses, which could limit deployment unless accompanied by innovative financing measures. These findings may be useful to communities as they seek to strengthen resilience to natural disasters while also improving public health, meeting climate goals, and providing economic opportunity for residents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Net-zero energy building design and life-cycle cost analysis with air-source variable refrigerant flow and distributed photovoltaic systems

Net-zero energy building (NZEB) design has been gaining widespread acceptance as a major driver to reach feasible long-term goals of energy reductions in a building sector for the coming decades. Accordingly, net-zero energy targets for commercial buildings have been specified by federal and/or local government agencies in U.S. Although moving toward NZEB goals has technically feasible long-term advantages, economic issues are one of primarily concerns by building owners and designers for the application of advanced building technologies in NZEB design of their retrofit or new building construction. However, the lack of life cycle cost (LCC) data has still hindered reliable understanding of adopting NZEB design by building owners in a cost-effective manner. In response to this gap, this study conducts life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) of NZEB design with an energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system and a solar power generation system. Here, to enable NZEB design, an air-source VRF heat pump (HP) type system is considered for energy-efficient HVAC equipment in an office building model with a grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) system. Results reveal that the LCC of NZEBs varies primarily due to a combined effect of annual site EUIs, on-site power generation, and cost-items of each location in U.S. climates. Some hot and mild climate zones in the U.S. represent that LCC values of NZEBs are considerably lower. In contrast, some other cold zones result in unattractive LCC values for NZEBs, caused by a combined effect of relatively lower potential of on-site PV electricity generation and city cost indices. Yet, with subsidized financing by the federal government for PV installation costs, LCC values of NZEBs become significantly attractive in most climate locations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimizing dispatch for a concentrated solar power tower

Concentrating solar power (CSP) systems employ a sophisticated thermal receiver, power cycle, and a heliostat field, comprised of thousands of mirrors spread over hundreds of acres of land, and are most cost-effective with relatively large quantities of energy storage which can be scheduled for dispatch. We exercise an existing optimization model that maximizes revenue over a year-long time horizon, solved using a standard 48-h look-ahead policy at hourly fidelity on a CSP system under development in California. The system employs molten salt power tower technology with a 150 MWe (net) turbine, eight hours of thermal storage at full load, and a solar field that provides 1.75 times the rated turbine thermal power. The model considers system configuration and interoperability aspects, such as storage tank size, production capacities, and ramp rates, and determines decisions that expedite financing, permitting, and plant design. Relative to results achieved via industry practice, the existing optimization model reduces the number of power cycle (i.e., turbine) start-up events by 86.4%, thereby improving net revenue by more than 8.5% annually; this corresponds to an approximately $140 M increase in net revenue over the lifetime of the plant, taking a step towards advancing the long-term economic viability of large-scale renewable energy systems. Sensitivity analysis on uncertain parameter values provides insight regarding those values that influence profit most significantly.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Challenges in the post-licensing stage of U.S. hydropower development: Current status and some potential solutions

The issuance of a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) license is an important milestone in the development process of new U.S. hydropower projects. The complexity and uncertain timeline of the licensing process have been often cited as a key deterrent to new hydropower installations in the United States. However, very little attention has been paid to post-licensing timelines and attrition rates. This article explores the challenges faced by developers in bringing their FERC-licensed hydropower projects to the construction stage. Post-licensing activities to be completed before starting construction include obtaining additional permitting from other federal or state agencies, completing the technical design, securing financing, and in most cases, negotiating a power purchase agreement. For the set of projects that obtained a FERC license between 2007 and 2018, we assembled a dataset—combining information from FERC dockets and responses from a questionnaire to developers—to calculate attrition rates and development timelines and to examine the reasons for delays and cancellations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

The changing character of household waste in the Czech Republic between 1999 and 2009 as a function of home heating methods

Highlights: • The character of household waste in the three different types of households were assesed. • The quantity, density and composition of household waste were determined. • The physicochemical characteristics were determined. • The changing character of household waste during past 10 years was described. • The potential of energy recovery of household waste in Czech republic was assesed. - Abstract: The authors of this paper report on the changing character of household waste, in the Czech Republic between 1999 and 2009 in households differentiated by their heating methods. The data presented are the result of two projects, financed by the Czech Ministry of Environment, which were undertaken during this time period with the aim of focusing on the waste characterisation and complete analysis of the physicochemical properties of the household waste. In the Czech Republic, the composition of household waste varies significantly between different types of households based on the methods of home heating employed. For the purposes of these studies, the types of homes were divided into three categories – urban, mixed and rural. Some of the biggest differences were found in the quantities of certain subsample categories, especially fine residue (matter smaller than 20 mm), between urban households with central heating and rural households that primarily employ solid fuel such coal or wood. The use of these solid fuels increases the fraction of the finer categories because of the higher presence of ash. Heating values of the residual household waste from the three categories varied very significantly, ranging from 6.8 MJ/kg to 14.2 MJ/kg in 1999 and from 6.8 MJ/kg to 10.5 MJ/kg in 2009 depending on the type of household and season. The same factors affect moisture of residual household waste which varied from 23.2% to 33.3%. The chemical parameters also varied significantly, especially in the quantities of Tl, As, Cr, Zn, Fe and Mn, which were higher in rural households. Because knowledge about the properties of household waste, as well as its physicochemical characteristics, is very important not only for future waste management, but also for the prediction of the behaviour and influence of the waste on the environment as the country continues to streamline its legislation to the European Union’s solid waste mandates, the results of these studies were employed by the Czech Ministry of Environment to optimise the national waste management strategy.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗