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At least 397 records · Page 22

Latent Representation Learning for Structural Characterization of Catalysts

Supervised machine learning-enabled mapping of the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra to local structural descriptors offers new methods for understanding the structure and function of working nanocatalysts. We briefly summarize a status of XANES analysis approaches by supervised machine learning methods. We present an example of an autoencoder-based, unsupervised machine learning approach for latent representation learning of XANES spectra. This new approach produces a lower-dimensional latent representation, which retains a spectrum–structure relationship that can be eventually mapped to physicochemical properties. Furthermore, the latent space of the autoencoder also provides a pathway to interpret the information content “hidden” in the X-ray absorption coefficient. Our approach (that we named latent space analysis of spectra, or LSAS) is demonstrated for the supported Pd nanoparticle catalyst studied during the formation of Pd hydride. By employing the low-dimensional representation of Pd K-edge XANES, the LSAS method was able to isolate the key factors responsible for the observed spectral changes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Magnetic anisotropy and GGG substrate stray field in YIG films down to millikelvin temperatures

Abstract Quantum magnonics investigates the quantum-mechanical properties of magnons, such as quantum coherence or entanglement for solid-state quantum information technologies at the nanoscale. The most promising material for quantum magnonics is the ferrimagnetic yttrium iron garnet (YIG), which hosts magnons with the longest lifetimes. YIG films of the highest quality are grown on a paramagnetic gadolinium gallium garnet (GGG) substrate. The literature has reported that ferromagnetic resonance (FMR) frequencies of YIG/GGG decrease at temperatures below 50 K despite the increase in YIG magnetization. We investigated a 97 nm-thick YIG film grown on 500 μm-thick GGG substrate through a series of experiments conducted at temperatures as low as 30 mK, and using both analytical and numerical methods. Our findings suggest that the primary factor contributing to the FMR frequency shift is the stray magnetic field created by the partially magnetized GGG substrate. This stray field is antiparallel to the applied external field and is highly inhomogeneous, reaching up to 40 mT in the center of the sample. At temperatures below 500 mK, the GGG field exhibits a saturation that cannot be described by the standard Brillouin function for a paramagnet. Including the calculated GGG field in the analysis of the FMR frequency versus temperature dependence allowed the determination of the cubic and uniaxial anisotropies. We find that the total crystallographic anisotropy increases more than three times with the decrease in temperature down to 2 K. Our findings enable accurate predictions of the YIG/GGG magnetic systems behavior at low and ultralow millikelvin temperatures, crucial for developing quantum magnonic devices.

Serha, Rostyslav O.↗

Constrained non-negative matrix factorization enabling real-time insights of in situ and high-throughput experiments

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is an appealing class of methods for performing unsupervised learning on streaming spectral data, particularly in time-sensitive applications such as in situ characterization of materials. These methods seek to decompose a dataset into a small number of components and weights that can compactly represent the underlying signal while effectively reconstructing the observations with minimal error. However, canonical NMF methods have no underlying requirement that the reconstruction uses components or weights that are representative of the true physical processes. In this work, we demonstrate how constraining a subset of the NMF weights or components as rigid priors, provided as known or assumed values, can provide significant improvement in revealing true underlying phenomena. We present a PyTorch-based method for efficiently applying constrained NMF and demonstrate its application to several synthetic examples. Our implementation allows an expert researcher-in-the-loop to provide and dynamically adjust the constraints during a live experiment involving streaming spectral data. Such interactive priors allow researchers to specify known or identified independent components, as well as functional expectations about the mixing or transitions between the components. We further demonstrate the application of this method to measured synchrotron x-ray total scattering data from in situ beamline experiments. In such a context, constrained NMF can result in a more interpretive and scientifically relevant decomposition than canonical NMF or other decomposition techniques. As a result, the details of the method are provided, along with general guidance for employing constrained NMF in the extraction of critical information and insights during time-sensitive experimental applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Efficient Optimization of Plasma Radiation Detector Configurations using Imperfect Inference Models

The configurations of instruments fielded on an experiment affect the amount of information captured and the quality of subsequent inference. Here, we investigate the problem of optimizing plasma x-ray radiation detectors in a magneto-inertial fusion experiment at Sandia National Laboratories. It is impossible to directly measure properties such as the temperature of the thermonuclear fusion plasma produced in these experiments because of the extreme environment and destructive nature of the experiment. Among other diagnostics, several detectors are placed with significant standoff from the fusion target to capture the x-rays emitted by the fusion plasma, which can be used to infer some of its properties. To optimize the configuration of these detectors, a high-fidelity model (HFM) is used for simulating outputs and a low-fidelity model (LFM) is used for inference. We develop methods based on A- and L-optimality criteria that are efficient to compute while explicitly accounting for the discrepancy between the HFM and the LFM. The method allows us to find detector configurations that perform similarly to or better than the configuration obtained using an existing sampling-based optimization method while decreasing computational time by a factor of 50. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian optimization↗

Prevalence of erythromycin-resistant emm92 -type invasive group A streptococcal infections among injection drug users in West Virginia, United States, 2021–23

Abstract Background Increasing incidence of invasive group A Streptococcus (iGAS) disease has been reported in Europe and the USA over the past several years. Coupled with this are observations of higher rates of resistance to erythromycin and clindamycin. Objectives To characterize iGAS and pharyngitis isolates from West Virginia (WV), a US state outside of the national Active Bacteria Core surveillance purview, where risk factors associated with iGAS infections are prevalent. Methods Seventy-seven invasive group A Streptococcus isolates were collected from 67 unique patients at the J.W. Ruby Memorial Hospital Clinical Microbiology Laboratory in WV from 2021 to 2023. Invasive isolates and 20 unique pharyngitis isolates were tested for clindamycin and erythromycin susceptibility in the clinical laboratory. Patient demographic and clinical information was retrieved from patient electronic health records. Isolates were further characterized based on emm subtype and detection of MLSB resistance determinants. Results Twenty-six (39%) isolates were of a single emm92 type. All emm92 isolates were uniformly erythromycin/clindamycin resistant with inducible or constitutive MLSB resistance imparted by the plasmid-borne erm(T) gene. The majority of emm92 infections were associated with adult patients who reported IV drug use, whereas no pharyngitis infections were caused by an emm92 strain. Overall, 51 (76%) of the 67 iGAS isolates were determined to carry MLSB resistance. Conclusions Isolates of emm92 type (clonal subtype emm92.0) were associated with iGAS infections in adult IV drug users, but not with paediatric pharyngitis, and were uniformly resistant to erythromycin and clindamycin.

Powell, Lillie M.↗

Monte Carlo Event Generation with Continuous Normalizing Flows

We apply continuous normalizing flows trained with the flow matching method to the problem of phase-space sampling in Monte Carlo event generation for high-energy collider physics. Focusing on lepton-pair and top-quark pair production with multiple jets, the two computationally most expensive processes at the Large Hadron Collider, we train helicity-conditioned continuous normalizing flows to remap the random numbers used in matrix element evaluation. Compared to standard methods, we achieve unweighting efficiency improvements by factors of up to 184 and 25 for the two processes at their respective highest jet number, at the cost of an increased evaluation time. When combining the advantages of continuous normalizing flows with the fast evaluation times of coupling-layer-based flows, using the RegFlow approach, we find parton-level unweighted event generation walltime gains of about a factor of 10 at the highest jet numbers. These substantial gains highlight the promise of samplers based on machine learning for next-generation collider experiments.

Bothmann, Enrico [CERN; Gottingen U.] (ORCID:00000↗

Optimal Modulation and DM Filter Design for a High Switching Frequency Single-Stage Microinverter

This paper presents an optimal modulation and systematic filter design approach for a single-stage dual-active-bridge (DAB) based dc-ac microinverter to achieve improved differential-mode (DM) noise performance for electromagnetic interference (EMI) tests. As DM filters contribute significantly to the overall converter volume, the main objective of this work is to leverage the degrees of freedom in the DAB converters to effectively attenuate the EMI noise. In addition, the DM filter design method needs to ensure near unity power factor converter operation. To achieve these targets, this paper analyzes three modulation strategies based on fixed or variable switching frequency operation where the different control modulation variables are varied to find the simulated DM noise spectrum. Based on the required DM attenuation, a constrained optimization problem is formulated to determine minimal DM filter parameters. Simulation results show that a spread spectrum approach with variable switching frequency is shown to minimize the DM EMI attenuation effort by spreading the noise profile. A fully GaN 400 W hardware prototype demonstrated the spread-sprectrum approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Upcycling of Mixed Aluminum Alloy Shredder Scrap using Shear Processing

Conservation of critical materials is an increasing area of focus in the Unites States. In 2023, aluminum was added to the US Department of Energy Final Critical Materials List which has spurred public and private research into sustainable management of these resources. Additionally, efficiency in manufacturing and conservation of natural resources are growing concerns with targets to lower global carbon emissions, as primary aluminum alloy production is energy intensive, requiring 14 MWh of electricity plus 0.4 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of Al. Due to these factors, is essential that more sustainable manufacturing methods for aluminum alloys are developed going forward. To this end, much research is ongoing on the topic of more efficient utilization and recovery. However, most of this research still requires primary aluminum in the production process. Here, it will be attempted to bypass the use of primary aluminum and produce useful material recycled from 100% post-consumer scrap. Even considering recent developments in recycling of Al scrap, there is still a large amount of post-consumer scrap that is underutilized due to high impurity content, and that amount will increase significantly as more and more aluminum alloys are utilized in vehicles. This “scrap wave” is expected to cover 80% of the demand for automotive aluminum alloys by 2050 . A challenge to be addressed before the coming scrap wave can be fully utilized is that the tolerance of manufacturing techniques to impurities or off-spec alloy compositions must be increased. Particularly, in 5000-and 6000-series alloys (the most common wrought alloys in durable products), excess iron, copper, and silicon create brittle intermetallics during casting that remain in the extruded microstructure which limit the formability, ductility, and corrosion resistance of the alloy. Concerningly, many of the highest-volume post-consumer aluminum scrap streams such as automotive shredder scrap contain a mix of alloys including both wrought and cast alloys. Their compositions can vary widely depending on geography and the time of year. Because they are mixed, they often contain high content of multiple alloying elements such as Si and Cu in higher concentrations than are found in typical wrought alloys. They may also be contaminated with non-Al alloys from fasteners that get mixed in and often have high content of unwanted elements such as Fe. As a method for utilizing these underused scrap streams that are high in tramp elements, an emerging extrusion technology is being developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that aims to upcycle 100% post-consumer aluminum scrap directly into extruded components without the addition of primary aluminum . This new technology, called Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE), is enabling a shift away from today’s recycling paradigm by reaching deeper into lower-value scrap streams, using shredder scrap as the extrusion billet material. Sometimes referred to as Twitch or Tweak, these scrap streams result from shredding and sorting of automobiles, building materials, appliances, and consumer goods. ShAPE combines the linear axis of conventional extrusion with a rotating extrusion die. This rotating die applies large strain to the material during extrusion, which breaks up large impurity-containing intermetallic particles, reducing their deleterious effects. This has been demonstrated for 6063 machining scrap spiked with excess Fe, and Twitch scrap high in Fe, Si and Cu where strength and ductility were retained for both feedstock compositions. Additionally, the extreme plastic deformation during ShAPE enables extrusion of billets with high Si that are too brittle for processing by conventional extrusion. By using 100% post-consumer shedder scrap as feedstock, ShAPE has the potential to slash embodied energy and carbon in extruded components by >80% compared to conventional extrusion of primary aluminum alloys.

Milligan, Brian K.↗

Performing In Situ Closed-Cell Gas Reactions in the Transmission Electron Microscope

Gas reactions studied by in situ electron microscopy can be used to capture the real-time morphological and microchemical transformations of materials at length scales down to the atomic level. In situ closed-cell gas reaction (CCGR) studies performed using (scanning) transmission electron microscopy (STEM) can separate and identify localized dynamic reactions, which are extremely challenging to capture using other characterization techniques. For these experiments, we used a CCGR holder that utilizes microelectromechanical systems (MEMS)-based heating microchips (hereafter referred to as "E-chips"). The experimental protocol described here details the method for performing in situ gas reactions in dry and wet gases in an aberration-corrected STEM. This method finds relevance in many different materials systems, such as catalysis and high-temperature oxidation of structural materials at atmospheric pressure and in the presence of various gases with or without water vapor. Here, several sample preparation methods are described for various material form factors. During the reaction, mass spectra obtained with a residual gas analyzer (RGA) system with and without water vapor further validates gas exposure conditions during reactions. Integrating an RGA with an in situ CCGR-STEM system can, therefore, provide critical insight to correlate gas composition with the dynamic surface evolution of materials during reactions. In situ/operando studies using this approach allow for detailed investigation of the fundamental reaction mechanisms and kinetics that occur at specific environmental conditions (time, temperature, gas, pressure), in real-time, and at high spatial resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated energy harvesting transceivers and transmitters with dual-antenna architecture for miniaturized implants and electrochemical sensors

Systems and methods for utilizing a small form-factor, wirelessly powered transceiver are disclosed. In one embodiment, a wireless powered transceiver includes a receive antenna configured to receive a receive signal, a transmit antenna configured to transmit a transmit signal, a power harvesting system including a rectifier circuit configured convert radio frequency energy from the receive signal into DC (direct current) voltage, and a power management unit (PMU) configured to set the operating mode and biasing condition of the receive and transmit circuitry blocks and provide DC voltage from the receive circuitry block to the transmit circuitry block to maintain a minimum voltage, a receiver circuitry block configured to provide energy from the receive signal to the power harvesting system, and a transmitter circuitry block including a data modulator circuit, the data modulator circuit configured to generate the transmit signal using DC voltage received from the power management unit.

Babakhani, Aydin↗

Amphiphilic Block Copolymers for Flocculation and Hydrophobization of Legacy Waste Suspensions in Flotation Driven Dewatering Operations - 20162

Flotation has been effectively demonstrated as a low footprint, high efficiency separation process when utilising simple anionic surface modifying agents such as sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS). These agents increase hydrophobicity to remove suspended cationic surface charged particulates such as Mg(OH){sub 2} from waste suspensions similar to those at British nuclear fuel management sites- where corrosion processes have degraded fuel cladding. The technology is advantageous as it could effectively be retrofitted into existing waste management facilities at nuclear waste management sites such Sellafield and Hanford as the simplicity (no moving parts) and size of this technology coupled with low cost of construction could be rapidly deployed to aid in risk and hazard reduction decommissioning operations with minimum impact to secondary waste generation. Previously, sodium dodecyl sulphate has been deployed as a collector agent to increase the hydrophobicity of Mg(OH){sub 2} suspended particles, achieving a maximum particulate extraction percentage of 93%. To achieve further particulate extraction, flotation performance has been determined to be a function of the hydrodynamic limitations extracting fine material (>20 μm). Fine particulates have been shown in the minerals industry to have an inability to overcome slipstreams created from rising bubbles in flotation cells, likely due to the low mass and thus momentum of the colloidal material, preventing interaction between the hydrophobized particles and air-water interfaces (bubbles). To combat this mass transfer resistance poly(acrylic acid)-block-poly(n-butyl acrylate) amphiphilic diblock copolymers were synthesised via reversible addition-fragmentation chain-transfer (RAFT) polymerisation. The anticipated mode of action of these polymers involves the hydrophilic poly(acrylic acid) block polymer acting as a flocculation agent to increase the mass of the aggregates, and the hydrophobic poly(n-butyl acrylate) modifies the hydrophobicity of the resulting flocs. The concentration of this polymer (termed a macro-collector) was varied and the change in particle size distribution of the particulate suspension was analysed using static light scattering. The flotation performance was then characterised by several methods including percentage particulate recovery, volume reduction factor and residual bulk particulate concentration. This was then benchmarked against the traditional surfactant collector agent SDS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrated energy harvesting transceivers and transmitters with dual-antenna architecture for miniaturized implants and electrochemical sensors

Systems and methods for utilizing a small form-factor, wirelessly powered transceiver are disclosed. In one embodiment, a wireless powered transceiver includes a receive antenna configured to receive a receive signal, a transmit antenna configured to transmit a transmit signal, a power harvesting system including a rectifier circuit configured convert radio frequency energy from the receive signal into DC (direct current) voltage, and a power management unit (PMU) configured to set the operating mode and biasing condition of the receive and transmit circuitry blocks and provide DC voltage from the receive circuitry block to the transmit circuitry block to maintain a minimum voltage, a receiver circuitry block configured to provide energy from the receive signal to the power harvesting system, and a transmitter circuitry block including a data modulator circuit, the data modulator circuit configured to generate the transmit signal using DC voltage received from the power management unit.

Babakhani, Aydin↗

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2018 and (2) maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2018. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. A statistically significant increasing trend was identified in the frequency of FTLR demands for emergency power system (EPS) and high pressure core spray (HPCS) EDGs and a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the frequency of run > 1H hours for EPS and HPCS EDGs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Differential patterns of reproductive and lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer according to birth cohorts among women in China, Japan and Korea

Background: The birth cohort effect has been suggested to influence the rate of breast cancer incidence and the trends of associated reproductive and lifestyle factors. We conducted a cohort study to determine whether a differential pattern of associations exists between certain factors and breast cancer risk based on birth cohorts. Methods: This was a cohort study using pooled data from 12 cohort studies. We analysed associations between reproductive (menarche age, menopause age, parity and age at first delivery) and lifestyle (smoking and alcohol consumption) factors and breast cancer risk. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis on the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s and 1950s birth cohorts. Results: Parity was found to lower the risk of breast cancer in the older but not in the younger birth cohort, whereas lifestyle factors showed associations with breast cancer risk only among the participants born in the 1950s. In the younger birth cohort group, the effect size was lower for parous women compared to the other cohort groups (HR [95% CI] 0.86 [0.66–1.13] compared to 0.60 [0.49–0.73], 0.46 [0.38–0.56] and 0.62 [0.51–0.77]). Meanwhile, a higher effect size was found for smoking (1.45 [1.14–1.84] compared to 1.25 [0.99–1.58], 1.06 [0.85–1.32] and 0.86 [0.69–1.08]) and alcohol consumption (1.22 [1.01–1.48] compared to 1.10 [0.90–1.33], 1.15 [0.96–1.38], and 1.07 [0.91–1.26]). Conclusion: We observed different associations of parity, smoking and alcohol consumption with breast cancer risk across various birth cohorts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗