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DOE OSTI2016

Task Parallel Incomplete Cholesky Factorization using 2D Partitioned-Block Layout

We introduce a task-parallel algorithm for sparse incomplete Cholesky factorization that utilizes a 2D sparse partitioned-block layout of a matrix. Our factorization algorithm follows the idea of algorithms-by-blocks by using the block layout. The algorithm-byblocks approach induces a task graph for the factorization. These tasks are inter-related to each other through their data dependences in the factorization algorithm. To process the tasks on various manycore architectures in a portable manner, we also present a portable tasking API that incorporates different tasking backends and device-specific features using an open-source framework for manycore platforms i.e., Kokkos. A performance evaluation is presented on both Intel Sandybridge and Xeon Phi platforms for matrices from the University of Florida sparse matrix collection to illustrate merits of the proposed task-based factorization. Experimental results demonstrate that our task-parallel implementation delivers about 26.6x speedup (geometric mean) over single-threaded incomplete Choleskyby- blocks and 19.2x speedup over serial Cholesky performance which does not carry tasking overhead using 56 threads on the Intel Xeon Phi processor for sparse matrices arising from various application problems.

2D layout↗

DOE OSTI2016

Systems Biology Model of Interactions between Tissue Growth Factors and DNA Damage Pathways: Low Dose Response and Cross-Talk in TGFβ and ATM Signaling

The etiology of radiation carcinogenesis has been described in terms of aberrant changes that span several levels of biological organization. Growth factors regulate many important cellular and tissue functions including apoptosis, differentiation and proliferation. A variety of genetic and epigenetic changes of growth factors have been shown to contribute to cancer initiation and progression. It is known that cellular and tissue damage to ionizing radiation is in part initiated by the production of reactive oxygen species, which can activate cytokine signaling, and the DNA damage response pathways, most notably the ATM signaling pathway. Recently, the transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) pathway has been shown to regulate or directly interact with the ATM pathway in the response to radiation. The relevance of this interaction with the ATM pathway is not known although p53 becomes phosphorylated and DNA damage responses are involved. However, growth factor interactions with DNA damage responses have not been elucidated particularly at low doses, and further characterization of their relationship to cancer processes is warranted. Our goal will be to use a systems biology approach to mathematically and experimentally describe the low-dose responses and cross-talk between the ATM and TGFβ pathways initiated by low- and high-LET radiation. We will characterize ATM and TGFβ signaling in epithelial and fibroblast cells using 2D models and ultimately extending to 3D organotypic cell culture models to begin to elucidate possible differences that may occur for different cell types and/or inter-cellular communication. We will investigate the roles of the Smad and Activating transcription factor 2 (ATF2) proteins as the potential major contributors to crosstalk between the TGFβ and ATM pathways, and links to cell cycle control and/or the DNA damage response, and potential differences in their responses at low and high doses. We have developed various experimental approaches to apply to these problems using confocal microscopy and flow cytometry to detail changes at low dose/dose-rate in order to understand individual cell responses, and will establish our mathematical models based on the experimental findings resulting from changes in DNA repair, apoptosis and proliferation.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

A User-Centered Design Exploration of Factors That Influence the Rideshare Experience

The rise of real-time information communication through smartphones and wireless networks enabled the growth of ridesharing services. While personal rideshare services (individuals riding alone or with acquaintances) initially dominated the market, the popularity of pooled ridesharing (individuals sharing rides with people they do not know) has grown globally. However, pooled ridesharing remains less common in the U.S., where personal vehicle usage is still the norm. Vehicle design and rideshare services may need to be tailored to user preferences to increase pooled rideshare adoption. Based on a large, national U.S. survey (N = 5385), the results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses suggested that four key factors influence riders’ willingness to consider pooled ridesharing: comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. A binomial logistic regression was conducted to determine how the four factors influence one’s willingness to consider pooled ridesharing. The two factors that positively influence riders’ willingness to consider pooled ridesharing are vehicle technology/accessibility (B = 1.10) and convenience (B = 0.94), while lack of passenger safety (B = –0.63) and comfort/ease of use (B = –0.17) are pooled ridesharing deterrents. Understanding user-centered design and service factors are critical to increase the use of pooled ridesharing services in the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Establishing a value chain for human factors in nuclear power plantcontrol room modernization

Commercial nuclear power plants in the United States (U.S.) have operated reliably and efficiently for decades. With the life extensions of plants now being planned for operation beyond their original operating licenses, there are opportunities to achieve even greater efficiencies, while maintaining high operational reliabilities, with strategic, risk- and economically-informed, upgrades to plant systems and infrastructure. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program supports the commercial nuclear industry’s modernization efforts through research and development (R&D) activities across many areas to help establish the technical and economic bases for modernization activities. The Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems Technologies pathway is one R&D focus area for the LWRS program, and has researchers at Idaho National Laboratory working with select utility partners to use human factors and instrumentation and controls R&D to help modernize the plant’s main control room. However, some in the nuclear industry have not been as enthusiastic about using human factors R&D to inform life extension decision making. Part of the reason for this may stem from uncertainty decision-makers have regarding how human factors fits into the value chain for nuclear power plant control room modernization. This paper reviews past work that has attempted to demonstrate the value of human factors, and then describes the value chain concept, how it applies to control room modernization, and then makes a case for how and why human factors is an essential link in the modernization value chain.

Control room modernization↗

DOE OSTI2016

Human Factors Principles in Information Dashboard Design

When planning for control room upgrades, nuclear power plants have to deal with a multitude of engineering and operational impacts. This will inevitably include several human factors considerations, including physical ergonomics of workstations, viewing angles, lighting, seating, new communication requirements, and new concepts of operation. In helping nuclear power utilities to deal with these challenges, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed effective methods to manage the various phases of the upgrade life cycle. These methods focus on integrating human factors engineering processes with the plant’s systems engineering process, a large part of which is the development of end-state concepts for control room modernization. Such an end-state concept is a description of a set of required conditions that define the achievement of the plant’s objectives for the upgrade. Typically, the end-state concept describes the transition of a conventional control room, over time, to a facility that employs advanced digital automation technologies in a way that significantly improves system reliability, reduces human and control room-related hazards, reduces system and component obsolescence, and significantly improves operator performance. To make the various upgrade phases as concrete and as visible as possible, an end-state concept would include a set of visual representations of the control room before and after various upgrade phases to provide the context and a framework within which to consider the various options in the upgrade. This includes the various control systems, human-system interfaces to be replaced, and possible changes to operator workstations. This paper describes how this framework helps to ensure an integrated and cohesive outcome that is consistent with human factors engineering principles and also provide substantial improvement in operator performance. The paper further describes the application of this integrated approach in the strategic modernization program at a nuclear power plant where legacy systems are upgraded to advanced digital technologies through a systematic process that links human factors principles to the systems engineering process. This approach will help to create an integrated control room architecture beyond what is possible for individual subsystem upgrades alone. In addition, several human factors design and evaluation methods were used to develop the end-state concept, including interactive sessions with operators in INL’s Human System Simulation Laboratory, three-dimensional modeling to visualize control board changes.

3D Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development of a Fleet-Level Human Factors Engineering Program to Support the Digital Modernization of Multiple Turbine Control Systems

A number of years ago, Duke Energy and the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) entered into a collaboration to support Duke’s digital upgrade activities for the main control rooms at three of their commercial nuclear power stations. The collaboration specifically focused on the human factors engineering (HFE) aspects of Duke’s plans to upgrade the legacy turbine control systems (TCS) at their Brunswick, Robinson, and Harris plants. This TSC upgrade involved installing a common digital control system (DCS), or distributed instrumentation and control (I&C) system platform, which multiple digital plant control systems can be integrated onto as the control rooms are modernized over time. Given the breadth and depth of the scope of this upgrade, DOE researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) with expertise in human factors collaborated with Duke throughout the entire HFE life cycle to help ensure the upgrade was performed in a manner consistent with regulatory human factors review criteria, such as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (NUREG 0711, 2012). This paper describes the HFE researchers performed through the early and middle phases of these TCS upgrades. Specific HFE activities include: 1) the development of a human factors program management plan, 2) performing an operational experience review, 3) evaluating the design human system interface while it was still in the early stages of development, and 4) developing a framework to help map these HFE activities to NUREG-0711 to help understand and catalog the value of different types and phases of human performance data collection. These four HFE activities are described in more detail below.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Bifacial PV Modeling: Raytracing and View Factor Models

As part of the PV Magazine Webinar 'View-factor vs. ray tracing - which bifacial modelling techniques should you use?,' the second part lead by NREL will explore the different rear-irradiance calculation software, which fall into two categories: view-factor and ray-tracing models. View factor models assume isotropic scattering of reflected rays, allowing for calculation of irradiance by integration. Due-diligence software such as PVSyst or SAM use the view-factor model. Ray-tracing models simulate multipath reflection and absorption of individual rays entering a scene. Raytracing software such as bifacial_radiance, which is the only available open-source toolkit, offers the possibility of reproducing complex scenes, including shading or finite-system edge effects. This can be useful to evaluate specific system geometries, shading and obstructions, areas of different albedo and electrical mismatch, all topics of interest to the prediction of bifacial performance. Model agreement for view factors and bifacial_radiance software is improving and has been shown to be between 2% (absolute) when compared with measured results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Abiotic and biotic factors jointly influence the contact and environmental transmission of a generalist pathogen

The joint influence of abiotic and biotic factors is important for understanding the transmission of generalist pathogens. Abiotic factors such as temperature can directly influence pathogen persistence in the environment and will also affect biotic factors, such as host community composition and abundance. At intermediate spatial scales, the effects of temperature, community composition, and host abundance are expected to contribute to generalist pathogen transmission. We use a simple transmission model to explain and predict how host community composition, host abundance, and environmental pathogen persistence times can independently and jointly influence transmission. Our transmission model clarifies how abiotic and biotic factors can synergistically support the transmission of a pathogen. The empirical data show that high community competence, high abundance, and low temperatures correlate with high levels of transmission of ranavirus in larval amphibian communities. Discrete wetlands inhabited by larval amphibians in the presence of ranavirus provide a compelling case study comprising distinct host communities at a spatial scale anticipated to demonstrate abiotic and biotic influence on transmission. We use these host communities to observe phenomena demonstrated in our theoretical model. These findings emphasize the importance of considering both abiotic and biotic factors, and concomitant direct and indirect mechanisms, in the study of pathogen transmission and should extend to other generalist pathogens with the capacity for environmental transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Factorization at subleading power and endpoint-divergent convolutions in h → γγ decay

t is by now well known that, at subleading power in scale ratios, factorization theorems for high-energy cross sections and decay amplitudes contain endpoint-divergent convolution integrals. The presence of endpoint divergences hints at a violation of simple scale separation. At the technical level, they indicate an unexpected failure of dimensional regularization and the $\overline{MS}$ subtraction scheme. In this work, we start a detailed discussion of factorization at subleading power within the framework of soft-collinear effective theory. As a concrete example, we factorize the decay amplitude for the radiative Higgs-boson decay h → γγ mediated by a b-quark loop, for which endpoint-divergent convolution integrals require both dimensional and rapidity regulators. We derive a factorization theorem for the decay amplitude in terms of bare Wilson coefficients and operator matrix elements. We show that endpoint divergences caused by rapidity divergences cancel to all orders of perturbation theory, while endpoint divergences that are regularized dimensionally can be removed by rearranging the terms in the factorization theorem. We use our result to resum the leading double-logarithmic corrections of order $α^n_sln^{2n+2}(-M^2_h/m^2_b)$ to the decay amplitude to all orders of perturbation theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Impact of form factor uncertainties on interpretations of coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering data

The standard model coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEνNS) cross section is subject to nuclear form factor uncertainties, mainly driven by the root-mean-square radius of the neutron density distribution. Motivated by COHERENT phases I-III and future multi-ton direct detection dark matter searches, we evaluate these uncertainties in cesium iodide, germanium, xenon and argon detectors. We find that the uncertainties become relevant for momentum transfers q≳20 MeV and are essentially independent of the form factor parameterization. Consequently, form factor uncertainties are not important for CEνNS induced by reactor or solar neutrinos. Taking into account these uncertainties, we then evaluate their impact on measurements of CEνNS at COHERENT, the diffuse supernova background (DSNB) neutrinos and sub-GeV atmospheric neutrinos. We also calculate the relative uncertainties in the number of COHERENT events for different nuclei as a function of recoil energy. For DSNB and atmospheric neutrinos, event rates at a liquid argon detector can be uncertain to more than 5%. Finally, we consider the impact of form factor uncertainties on searches for nonstandard neutrino interactions, sterile neutrinos and neutrino generalized interactions. We point out that studies of new physics using CEνNS data are affected by neutron form factor uncertainties, which if not properly taken into account may lead to the misidentification of new physics signals. The uncertainties quantified here are also relevant for dark matter direct detection search

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bootstrapping a stress-tensor form factor through eight loops

We bootstrap the three-point form factor of the chiral stress-tensor multiplet in planar $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory at six, seven, and eight loops, using boundary data from the form factor operator product expansion. This may represent the highest perturbative order to which multi-variate quantities in a unitary four-dimensional quantum field theory have been computed. In computing this form factor, we observe and employ new restrictions on pairs and triples of adjacent letters in the symbol. We provide details about the function space required to describe the form factor through eight loops. Plotting the results on various lines provides striking numerical evidence for a finite radius of convergence of perturbation theory. By the principle of maximal transcendentality, our results are expected to give the highest weight part of the gg → Hg and H → ggg amplitudes in the heavy-top limit of QCD through eight loops. These results were also recently used to discover a new antipodal duality between this form factor and a six-point amplitude in the same theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lorentzian dynamics and factorization beyond rationality

We investigate the emergence of topological defect lines in the conformal Regge limit of two-dimensional conformal field theory. We explain how a local operator can be factorized into a holomorphic and an anti-holomorphic defect operator connected through a topological defect line, and discuss implications on analyticity and Lorentzian dynamics including aspects of chaos. We derive a formula relating the infinite boost limit, which holographically encodes the “opacity” of bulk scattering, to the action of topological defect lines on local operators. Leveraging the unitary bound on the opacity and the positivity of fusion coefficients, we show that the spectral radii of a large class of topological defect lines are given by their loop expectation values. Factorization also gives a formula relating the local and defect operator algebras and fusion categorical data. We then review factorization in rational conformal field theory from a defect perspective, and examine irrational theories. On the orbifold branch of the c = 1 free boson theory, we find a unified description for the topological defect lines through which the twist fields are factorized; at irrational points, the twist fields factorize through “non-compact” topological defect lines which exhibit continuous defect operator spectra. Along the way, we initiate the development of a formalism to characterize non-compact topological defect lines.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

New physics versus quenching factors in Coherent Neutrino Scattering

Recent results on the Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CEνNS) on germanium present significant discrepancies among experiments. We perform a combined analysis of the Dresden-II, CONUS+ and COHERENT data, quantifying the impact of quenching factor uncertainties on their CEνNS cross section measurement. No choice of quenching factor can bring these three data sets into mutual agreement, whereas the combination of COHERENT with either Dresden-II or CONUS+ agrees well albeit for very different quenching factors. We further study the quenching factor dependence on the sensitivity of these experiments to a large neutrino magnetic moment, finding that the constraints can vary by up to an order of magnitude. Our work highlights the importance of reducing this uncertainty on quenching factors in order to probe new physics from neutrinos at the low-energy frontier.

neutrino interactions↗

DOE OSTI2017

Prevalence of Modifiable Cancer Risk Factors Among U.S. Adults Aged 18–44 Years

Introduction: Carcinogen exposure and unhealthy habits acquired in young adulthood can set the stage for the development of cancer at older ages. This study measured the current prevalence of several cancer risk factors among young adults to assess opportunities to intervene to change the prevalence of these risk factors and potentially reduce cancer incidence. Methods: Using 2015 National Health Interview Survey data (analyzed in 2016), the prevalence of potential cancer risk factors was estimated among U.S. adults aged 18–44 years, based on responses to questions about diet, physical activity, tobacco product use, alcohol, indoor tanning, sleep, human papillomavirus vaccine receipt, and obesity, stratified by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. Results: The prevalence of some risk factors varied by age and race/ethnicity. Obesity (one in four people) and insufficient sleep (one in three people) were common among men and women. Physical inactivity (one in five men, one in four women); binge drinking (one in four men, one in eight women); cigarette smoking (one in five men, one in seven women); and frequent consumption of red meat (one in four men, one in six women) also were common. More than half of the population of adults aged 18–44 years consumed sugar-sweetened beverages daily and processed meat at least once a week. Most young adults had never had the human papillomavirus vaccine. Conclusions: Findings can be used to target evidence-based environmental and policy interventions to reduce the prevalence of cancer risk factors among young adults and prevent the development of future cancers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

The role of growth factors in maintenance of stemness in bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells

Highlights: • Expression of FGF-2, FGF-4, EGF, and HGF decreased during long-term culture of BMSCs. • Loss of growth factors induced autophagy, senescence and decrease of stemness. • FGF-2 increased proliferation potential via AKT and ERK activation in BMSCs. • FGF-2 suppressed LC3-II expression and down-regulated senescence of BMSCs. • HGF was important in maintenance of the differentiation potential of BMSCs. - Abstract: Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are an active topic of research in regenerative medicine due to their ability to secrete a variety of growth factors and cytokines that promote healing of damaged tissues and organs. In addition, these secreted growth factors and cytokines have been shown to exert an autocrine effect by regulating MSC proliferation and differentiation. We found that expression of EGF, FGF-4 and HGF were down-regulated during serial passage of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). Proliferation and differentiation potentials of BMSCs treated with these growth factors for 2 months were evaluated and compared to BMSCs treated with FGF-2, which increased proliferation of BMSCs. FGF-2 and -4 increased proliferation potentials at high levels, about 76- and 26-fold, respectively, for 2 months, while EGF and HGF increased proliferation of BMSCs by less than 2.8-fold. Interestingly, differentiation potential, especially adipogenesis, was maintained only by HGF treatment. Treatment with FGF-2 rapidly induced activation of AKT and later induced ERK activation. The basal level of phosphorylated ERK increased during serial passage of BMSCs treated with FGF-2. The expression of LC3-II, an autophagy marker, was gradually increased and the population of senescent cells was increased dramatically at passage 7 in non-treated controls. But FGF-2 and FGF-4 suppressed LC3-II expression and down-regulated senescent cells during long-term (i.e. 2 month) cultures. Taken together, depletion of growth factors during serial passage could induce autophagy, senescence and down-regulation of stemness (proliferation via FGF-2/-4 and differentiation via HGF) through suppression of AKT and ERK signaling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Imaging analysis of nuclear antiviral factors through direct detection of incoming adenovirus genome complexes

Recent studies involving several viral systems have highlighted the importance of cellular intrinsic defense mechanisms through nuclear antiviral proteins that restrict viral propagation. These factors include among others components of PML nuclear bodies, the nuclear DNA sensor IFI16, and a potential restriction factor PHF13/SPOC1. For several nuclear replicating DNA viruses, it was shown that these factors sense and target viral genomes immediately upon nuclear import. In contrast to the anticipated view, we recently found that incoming adenoviral genomes are not targeted by PML nuclear bodies. Here we further explored cellular responses against adenoviral infection by focusing on specific conditions as well as additional nuclear antiviral factors. In line with our previous findings, we show that neither interferon treatment nor the use of specific isoforms of PML nuclear body components results in co-localization between incoming adenoviral genomes and the subnuclear domains. Furthermore, our imaging analyses indicated that neither IFI16 nor PHF13/SPOC1 are likely to target incoming adenoviral genomes. Thus our findings suggest that incoming adenoviral genomes may be able to escape from a large repertoire of nuclear antiviral mechanisms, providing a rationale for the efficient initiation of lytic replication cycle. - Highlights: • Host nuclear antiviral factors were analyzed upon adenovirus genome delivery. • Interferon treatments fail to permit PML nuclear bodies to target adenoviral genomes. • Neither Sp100A nor B targets adenoviral genomes despite potentially opposite roles. • The nuclear DNA sensor IFI16 does not target incoming adenoviral genomes. • PHF13/SPOC1 targets neither incoming adenoviral genomes nor genome-bound protein VII.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Equilibrium carbon isotope fractionation factors of hydrocarbons: Semi-empirical force-field method

Here, we have calculated the reduced partition function ratios for carbon isotopes (β-factor) of 67 hydrocarbons (alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, cycloalkanes, and aromatics), including their 267 single-substituted isotopomers. The calculations were performed using the harmonic oscillator – rigid rotator model and the Urey / Bigeleisen-Mayer approach. Normal frequencies of molecular vibrations of the isotopologues were calculated from the molecular structures data and valence field force constants stored in the Light-handled Elucidation of Vibrations (LEV) database elaborated by Dr. Gribov and his colleagues in Russia. The LEV database is constructed from experimental spectroscopic and structural data by solving inverse problems of molecular vibrations. The LEV is internally consistent and the most comprehensive database available to date. The β-factor were calculated in the temperature range of 200–800 K with a 10 K step. Our calculations predict that the β-factors increase with an increasing number of C atoms within the same groups of hydrocarbons (e.g., alkanes). Our calculations also show a general descending order of 13 C enrichments among the different groups of hydrocarbons: cycloalkanes, aromatics, alkenes (double bonds) and isoalkanes, alkanes, alkynes (triple bonds). Position-specific, intramolecular isotope effects within hydrocarbons are determined by the β-factors of C in the different functional groups in the order: quaternary (C), tertiary (methine, CH), secondary (methylene, CH 2 ), primary (methyl, CH 3 ) and double bond (C=C), saturated bond (C - C), triple bond (HC≡). Our calculations on bulk and position-specific carbon isotope β-factors of the hydrocarbons, which are generally consistent with very limited ab initio calculations in the literature, are internally consistent and the most comprehensive to date for future applications to position-specific isotope geochemistry of hydrocarbons.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012

Carbon emissions related to population factors have aroused great attention around the world. A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level, and comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model incorporating PLS (Partial least squares) regression method to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Empirically results manifest that urbanization is the paramount driver. Changes in population age structure have significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions, and shrinking young population, continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures. Meanwhile, shrinking household size and expanding floating population boost the discharge of carbon emissions. Besides, per capita consumption is an important contributor of carbon emissions, while industry energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor. Based upon these findings and the specific circumstances of Beijing, policies such as promoting clean and renewable energy, improving population quality and advocating low carbon lifestyles should be enhanced to achieve targeted emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We employed the STIRPAT model to identify population-related factors of carbon emissions in Beijing. • Urbanization is the paramount driver of carbon emissions. • Changes in population age structure exert significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions. • Shrinking household size, expanding floating population and improving consumption level increase carbon emissions. • Industry energy intensity decreases carbon emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗