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At least 397 records · Page 22

Frequencies and Characteristics of Global Oceanic Precipitation from Shipboard Present-Weather Reports

Ship reports of present weather obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set are analyzed for the period 1958-91 in order to elucidate regional and seasonal variations in the climatological frequency, phase, intensity, and character of oceanic precipitation. Specific findings of note include the following: 1) The frequency of thunderstorm reports, relative to all precipitation reports, is a strong function of location, with thunderstorm activity being favored within 1000-3000 km of major tropical and subtropical land masses, while being quite rare at other locations, even within the intertropical convergence zone. 2) The latitudinal frequency of precipitation over the southern oceans increases steadily toward the Antarctic continent and shows relatively little seasonal variation. The frequency of convective activity, however, shows considerable seasonal variability, with sharp winter maxima occurring near 38 deg. latitude in both hemispheres. 3) Drizzle is the preferred form of precipitation in a number of regions, most of which coincide with known regions of persistent marine stratus and stratocumulus in the subtropical highs. Less well documented is the high relative frequency of drizzle in the vicinity of the equatorial sea surface temperature front in the eastern Pacific. 4) Regional differences in the temporal scale of precipitation events (e.g., transient showers versus steady precipitation) are clearly depicted by way of the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at the observation time to the frequency of all precipitation reports, including precipitation during the previous hour. The results of this study suggest that many current satellite rainfall estimation techniques may substantially underestimate the fractional coverage or frequency of precipitation poleward of 50 deg. latitude and in the subtropical dry zones. They also draw attention to the need to carefully account for regional differences in the physical and spatial properties of rainfall when developing calibration relationships for satellite algorithms.

Petty, Grant W.↗

CropManage Application for Vineyard Irrigation Decision-Support

CropManage is a free web-application developed by U.C. Cooperative Extension to support evapotranspiration based irrigation scheduling and nutrient management for major specialty crops. Prescribed phenology curves are used to develop daily estimates of canopy cover within a given field, based on days since planting (annual crops) or budbreak (trees, vines). These curves are modulated by a MaxCan parameter representing seasonal maximum canopy cover. Crop development observations can be used to adjust for such factors as weather anomalies or non-standard agronomic practice, as needed. Canopy cover is converted to crop coefficient and combined with reference evapotranspiration to derive daily water consumption. Guidance on crop water requirement is then conveyed to users in terms of system runtime issued on-demand for a given date, largely based on total evapotranspiration since last irrigation event. In this study, CropManage was adapted to vineyards by adding modules accounting for early-season soil moisture depletion and cover crop presence. A crop stress parameter was added to accommodate deficit irrigation practice, allowing the user to specify percentage departure from full water requirement along with start/stop dates. An initial verification exercise was performed on three winegrape vineyards located in California’s Central Coast (2020), North Coast (2020) and Central Valley (2019). Daily crop evapotranspiration was monitored by eddy-covariance fluxtowers. MaxCan was measured by ground and satellite observation. Stress regime was specified by grower practice where available, otherwise stress levels were inferred from applied water records. Mean absolute error and mean bias error of modeled cumulative evapotranspiration were computed with respect to the eddy covariance measurements collected throughout the growing season. Results indicate the modified CropManage water management module performs reasonably well for winegrape. Additional effort is planned to modify the nutrient module for vineyard use.

CropManage↗

Spatial Variation of Fine Particulate Matter Levels in Nairobi Before and During the COVID-19 Curfew: Implications for Environmental Justice

The temporary decrease of fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations in many parts of the world due to the COVID-19 lockdown spurred discussions on urban air pollution and health. However there has been little focus on sub-Saharan Africa, as few African cities have air quality monitors and if they do, these data are often not publicly available. Spatial differentials of changes in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations as a result of COVID also remain largely unstudied. To address this gap, we use a serendipitous mobile air quality monitoring deployment of eight Sensirion SPS 30 sensors on motorbikes in the city of Nairobi starting on 16 March 2020, before a COVID-19 curfew was imposed on 25 March and continuing until 5 May 2020. We developed a random-forest model to estimate PM(sub 2.5) surfaces for the entire city of Nairobi before and during the COVID-19 curfew. The highest PM(sub 2.5) concentrations during both periods were observed in the poor neighborhoods of Kariobangi, Mathare, Umoja, and Dandora, located to the east of the city center. Changes in PM(sub 2.5) were heterogeneous over space. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations increased during the curfew in rapidly urbanizing, the lower-middle-class neighborhoods of Kahawa, Kasarani, and Ruaraka, likely because residents switched from LPG to biomass fuels due to loss of income. Our results indicate that COVID-19 and policies to address it may have exacerbated existing air pollution inequalities in the city of Nairobi. The quantitative results are preliminary, due to sampling limitations and measurement uncertainties, as the available data came exclusively from low-cost sensors. This research serves to highlight that spatial data that is essential for understanding structural inequalities reflected in uneven air pollution burdens and differential impacts of events like the COVID pandemic. With the help of carefully deployed low cost sensors with improved spatial sampling and at least one reference-quality monitor for calibration, we can collect data that is critical for developing targeted interventions that address environmental injustice in the African context.

Environmental justice↗

Geological remote sensing signatures of terrestrial impact craters

Geological remote sensing techniques can be used to investigate structural, depositional, and shock metamorphic effects associated with hypervelocity impact structures, some of which may be linked to global Earth system catastrophies. Although detailed laboratory and field investigations are necessary to establish conclusive evidence of an impact origin for suspected crater landforms, the synoptic perspective provided by various remote sensing systems can often serve as a pathfinder to key deposits which can then be targetted for intensive field study. In addition, remote sensing imagery can be used as a tool in the search for impact and other catastrophic explosion landforms on the basis of localized disruption and anomaly patterns. In order to reconstruct original dimensions of large, complex impact features in isolated, inaccessible regions, remote sensing imagery can be used to make preliminary estimates in the absence of field geophysical surveys. The experienced gained from two decades of planetary remote sensing of impact craters on the terrestrial planets, as well as the techniques developed for recognizing stages of degradation and initial crater morphology, can now be applied to the problem of discovering and studying eroded impact landforms on Earth. Preliminary results of remote sensing analyses of a set of terrestrial impact features in various states of degradation, geologic settings, and for a broad range of diameters and hence energies of formation are summarized. The intention is to develop a database of remote sensing signatures for catastrophic impact landforms which can then be used in EOS-era global surveys as the basis for locating the possibly hundreds of missing impact structures. In addition, refinement of initial dimensions of extremely recent structures such as Zhamanshin and Bosumtwi is an important objective in order to permit re-evaluation of global Earth system responses associated with these types of events.

Garvin, J. B.↗

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

The Strange Case of Ground-Coupled Airwaves on Seismoacoustic Stations at Local to Near-Regional Scales

Here we investigate the application of ground-coupled airwaves observed by seismoacoustic stations at local to near-regional scales to detect signals of interest and determine back-azimuth information. Ground-coupled airwaves are created from incident pressure waves traveling through the atmosphere that couple to the earth and transmit as a seismic wave with retrograde elliptical motion. Previous studies at sub-local scales (<10 km from a source of interest) found the back-azimuth to the source could be accurately determined from seismoacoustic signals recorded by acoustic and 3-component seismic sensors spatially separated on the order of 10 to 150 m. The potential back-azimuth directions are estimated from the coherent signals between the acoustic and vertical seismic data, via a propagation-induced phase shift of the seismoacoustic signal. A unique solution is then informed by the particle motion of the 3-component seismic station, which was previously found to be less accurate than the seismoacoustic-sensor method. We investigate the applicability of this technique to greater source-receiver distances, from 50-100 km and up to 400 km, which contains pressure waves with tropospheric and stratospheric ray paths, respectively. Specifically, we analyze seismoacoustic sources with ground truth from rocket motor fuel elimination events at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) as well as a 2020 rocket launch in Southern California. From these sources we observe evidence that while coherent signals can be seen from both sources on multiple seismoacoustic station pairs, the determined ground-coupled airwave back-azimuths are more complicated than results at more local scales. Our findings suggest more complex factors including incidence angle, coupling location, subsurface material, and atmospheric propagation effects need to be fully investigated before the ground-coupled airwave back-azimuth determination method can be applied or assessed at these further distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison between SAGE II and ISCCP high-level clouds. 2: Locating clouds tops

A comparison is made of the vertical distribution of high-level cloud tops derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) occultation measurements and from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for all Julys and Januarys in 1985 to 1990. The results suggest that ISCCP overestimates the pressure of high-level clouds by up to 50-150 mbar, particularly at low latitudes. This is caused by the frequent presence of clouds with diffuse tops (greater than 50% time when cloudy events are observed). The averaged vertical extent of the diffuse top is about 1.5 km. At midlatitudes where the SAGE II and ISCCP cloud top pressure agree best, clouds with distinct tops reach a maximum relative proportion of the total level cloud amount (about 30-40%), and diffuse-topped clouds are reduced to their minimum (30-40%). The ISCCP-defined cloud top pressure should be regarded not as the material physical height of the clouds but as the level which emits the same infrared radiance as observed. SAGE II and ISCCP cloud top pressures agree for clouds with distinct tops. There is also an indication that the cloud top pressures of optically thin clouds not overlying thicker clouds are poorly estimated by ISCCP at middle latitudes. The average vertical extent of these thin clouds is about 2.5 km.

Liao, Xiaohan↗

The HyMeX Special Observation Period in Central Italy: Precipitation Measurements, Retrieval Techniques and Preliminary Results

The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. The capability to predict such high-impact events remains weak because of the contribution of very fine-scale processes and their non-linear interactions with the larger scale processes. These societal and science issues motivate the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.orgl) experimental programme. HyMeX aims at a better quantification and understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean with emphasis on intense events. The observation strategy of HyMEX is organized in a long-term (4 years) Enhanced Observation Periods (EOP) and short-term (2 months) Special Observation Periods (SOP). HyMEX has identified 3 main Mediterranean target areas: North-West (NW), Adriatic (A) and South-East (SE). Within each target area several hydrometeorological sites for heavy rainfall and flash flooding have been set up. The hydrometeorological sire in Central Italy (CI) is interested by both western and eastern fronts coming from the Atlantic Ocean and Siberia, respectively. Orographic precipitations play an important role due to the central Apennine range, which reaches nearly 3000 m (Gran Sasso peak). Moreover, convective systems commonly develop in CI during late summer and beginning of autumn, often causing localized hailstorms with cluster organized cells. Western fronts may heavily hit the Tiber basin crossing large urban areas (Rome), whereas eastern fronts can cause flash floods along the Adriatic coastline. Two major basins are involved within Cl region: Tiber basin (1000 km long) and its tributary Aniene and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long). The first HyMeX SOP1.1 was carried out from Sept. till Nov. 2012 in the NW target area The Italian SOP1.1 was coordinated by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, a city located in the CI heart. The CI area was covered by a uniquely dense meteorological instrumentation thanks to a synergy between Italian institutions and NASA-GSFC. The following RADARs were operated: a Doppler single-polarization C-band radar located at Mt Midia; the Polar 55C Doppler dual-polarization C-band radar located in Rome; a Doppler C-hand polarimetric radar located at Il Monte (Abnazo); a polarimetric X-band mini-radar in L' Aquila; a polarimetric X-hand portable mini-radar in Rome; a single-polarization X-band mini-radar in Rome. DISDROMETERs were also deployed: 4 Parsivel optical disdrometers in Rome (at Sapienza, CNR-ISAC and CNR-INSEAN); 1 2D-video disdrometer in Rome; 3 Parsivels optical disdrometer respectively in L'Aquila (Abnazo), Avezzano (Abruzzo) and Pescara (Abnazo). Other INSTRUMENTS were available: 1 K-band vertically-pointing micro rain-radar (MRR), 2 Pludix X-band disdrometers, 1 VLF lightning sensor, 1 microwave radiometer at 23-31 GHz in Rome (at Sapienza); the raingauge network with more than 200 stations in Central Italy. Three overpasses in CI were also performed by the Falcon 20 aircraft equipped with the 950Hz cloud radar RASTA Analysis of the SOP1.1 main events in CI will be described by focusing on the raindrop size distribution statistics and its geographical variability. Intercomparison of rainfall estimates from disdrometers, raingauges and radars will be illustrated with the aim to provide a quality-controlled and physically consistent rainfall dataset for meteorological modeling validation and assimilation purposes.

Gatlin, Patrick↗

Hybrid-Vlasov Simulation of Soft X-Ray Emissions at the Earth’S Dayside Magnetospheric Boundaries

Solar wind charge exchange produces emissions in the soft X-ray energy range which can enable the study of near-Earth space regions such as the magnetopause, the magnetosheath and the polar cusps by remote sensing techniques. The Solar wind–Magnetosphere–Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) and Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager (LEXI) missions aim to obtain soft X-ray images of near-Earth space thanks to their Soft X-ray Imager (SXI) instruments. While earlier modeling works have already simulated soft X-ray images as might be obtained by SMILE SXI during its mission, the numerical models used so far are all based on the magnetohydrodynamics description of the space plasma. To investigate the possible signatures of ion-kinetic-scale processes in soft X-ray images, we use for the first time a global hybrid-Vlasov simulation of the geospace from the Vlasiator model. The simulation is driven by fast and tenuous solar wind conditions and purely southward interplanetary magnetic field. We first produce global X-ray images of the dayside near-Earth space by placing a virtual imaging satellite at two different locations, providing meridional and equatorial views. We then analyze regional features present in the images and show that they correspond to signatures in soft X-ray emissions of mirror mode wave structures in the magnetosheath and flux transfer events (FTEs) at the magnetopause. Our results suggest that, although the time scales associated with the motion of those transient phenomena will likely be significantly smaller than the integration time of the SMILE and LEXI imagers, mirror-mode structures and FTEs can cumulatively produce detectable signatures in the soft X-ray images. For instance, a local increase by 30% in the proton density at the dayside magnetopause resulting from the transit of multiple FTEs leads to a 12% enhancement in the line-of-sight- and time integrated soft X-ray emissivity originating from this region. Likewise, a proton density increase by 14% in the magnetosheath associated with mirror-mode structures can result in an enhancement in the soft X-ray signal by 4%. These are likely conservative estimates, given that the solar wind conditions used in the Vlasiator run can be expected to generate weaker soft X-ray emissions than the more common denser solar wind. These results will contribute to the preparatory work for the SMILE and LEXI missions by providing the community with quantitative estimates of the effects of small-scale, transient phenomena occurring on the dayside.

magnetosphere↗

Extending ACTS Operations Through a University-Based Consortium

The Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) program was slated for decommissioning in October 2000 as was announced at the 6th Ka-band Utilization Conference in May 2000. Quite a celebration was had at that event too centering on the decommissioning of this very successful technology program. With plans in place to move the spacecraft to an orbital graveyard and then shut the system down, NASA was challenged to consider the feasibility of extending operations for education and research purposes provided that an academic organization would be willing to cover operations costs. Continuing operations of the system was determined viable and in the fall of 2000, an announcement was made by NASA to consider extending operations. Plans are now in place to continue the operations of ACTS through a university-based consortium led by Ohio University, Athens, Ohio. Initial plans are for two more years of operations, with options to extend up to a total of four years. This paper will present the change in plans to continue operations of ACTS. A description of the multi-month transition of the spacecraft to its new and final orbital location is provided. With the spacecraft at this new location, an update on its performance is presented as well as estimates of long-term performance. The consortium development will be presented along with its organization, membership, and operations plans for using ACTS.

Bauer, Robert↗

The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\V plumes were associated with most of the \vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted rainfall amounts than when PW plumes occurred by themselves (i.e.. without the presence of 6.7 micron water vapor plumes). Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) meteorologists use the 6.7 micron water and P\V products for their QPE's (interactive Flash Flood Analyzer (IFFA) and Auto-Estimator precipitation estimates), Outlooks, and heavy precipitation briefings with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center/National Center for Environmental Prediction.

Scofield, Rod↗

Guided Wave Delamination Detection and Quantification With Wavefield Data Analysis

Unexpected damage can occur in aerospace composites due to impact events or material stress during off-nominal loading events. In particular, laminated composites are susceptible to delamination damage due to weak transverse tensile and inter-laminar shear strengths. Developments of reliable and quantitative techniques to detect delamination damage in laminated composites are imperative for safe and functional optimally-designed next-generation composite structures. In this paper, we investigate guided wave interactions with delamination damage and develop quantification algorithms by using wavefield data analysis. The trapped guided waves in the delamination region are observed from the wavefield data and further quantitatively interpreted by using different wavenumber analysis methods. The frequency-wavenumber representation of the wavefield shows that new wavenumbers are present and correlate to trapped waves in the damage region. These new wavenumbers are used to detect and quantify the delamination damage through the wavenumber analysis, which can show how the wavenumber changes as a function of wave propagation distance. The location and spatial duration of the new wavenumbers can be identified, providing a useful means not only for detecting the presence of delamination damage but also allowing for estimation of the delamination size. Our method has been applied to detect and quantify real delamination damage with complex geometry (grown using a quasi-static indentation technique). The detection and quantification results show the location, size, and shape of the delamination damage.

Tian, Zhenhua↗

Aggregation Tool to Create Curated Data albums to Support Disaster Recovery and Response

Despite advances in science and technology of prediction and simulation of natural hazards, losses incurred due to natural disasters keep growing every year. Natural disasters cause more economic losses as compared to anthropogenic disasters. Economic losses due to natural hazards are estimated to be around $6-$10 billion dollars annually for the U.S. and this number keeps increasing every year. This increase has been attributed to population growth and migration to more hazard prone locations such as coasts. As this trend continues, in concert with shifts in weather patterns caused by climate change, it is anticipated that losses associated with natural disasters will keep growing substantially. One of challenges disaster response and recovery analysts face is to quickly find, access and utilize a vast variety of relevant geospatial data collected by different federal agencies such as DoD, NASA, NOAA, EPA, USGS etc. Some examples of these data sets include high spatio-temporal resolution multi/hyperspectral satellite imagery, model prediction outputs from weather models, latest radar scans, measurements from an array of sensor networks such as Integrated Ocean Observing System etc. More often analysts may be familiar with limited, but specific datasets and are often unaware of or unfamiliar with a large quantity of other useful resources. Finding airborne or satellite data useful to a natural disaster event often requires a time consuming search through web pages and data archives. Additional information related to damages, deaths, and injuries requires extensive online searches for news reports and official report summaries. An analyst must also sift through vast amounts of potentially useful digital information captured by the general public such as geo-tagged photos, videos and real time damage updates within twitter feeds. Collecting and aggregating these information fragments can provide useful information in assessing damage in real time and help direct recovery efforts. The search process for the analyst could be made much more efficient and productive if a tool could go beyond a typical search engine and provide not just links to web sites but actual links to specific data relevant to the natural disaster, parse unstructured reports for useful information nuggets, as well as gather other related reports, summaries, news stories, and images. This presentation will describe a semantic aggregation tool developed to address similar problem for Earth Science researchers. This tool provides automated curation, and creates "Data Albums" to support case studies. The generated "Data Albums" are compiled collections of information related to a specific science topic or event, containing links to relevant data files (granules) from different instruments; tools and services for visualization and analysis; information about the event contained in news reports, and images or videos to supplement research analysis. An ontology-based relevancy-ranking algorithm drives the curation of relevant data sets for a given event. This tool is now being used to generate a catalog of Hurricane Case Studies at Global Hydrology Resource Center (GHRC), one of NASA's Distribute Active Archive Centers. Another instance of the Data Albums tool is currently being created in collaboration with NASA/MSFC's SPoRT Center, which conducts research on unique NASA products and capabilities that can be transitioned to the operational community to solve forecast problems. This new instance focuses on severe weather to support SPoRT researchers in their model evaluation studies

Ramachandran, Rahul↗

Extreme Water Deficit in Brazil Detected from Space

Extreme droughts have caused significant socioeconomic and environmental damage worldwide. In Brazil, ineffective energy development and water management policies have magnified the impacts of recent severe droughts, which include massive agricultural losses, water supply restrictions, and energy rationing. Spaceborne remote sensing data advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of large-scale droughts and enhance the detection and monitoring of extreme water-related events. In this study, data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to detect and quantify an extended major drought over eastern Brazil and provide estimates of impacted areas and region-specific water deficits. Two structural breakpoint detection methods were applied to time series of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), determining when two abrupt changes occurred. One, in particular, defines the beginning of the current drought. Using TWSA, a water loss rate of 26.1 cmyr21 over southeastern Brazil was detected from 2012 to 2015. Based on analysis of Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) outputs, the extreme drought is mostly related to lower-than-usual precipitation rates, resulting in high soil moisture depletion and lower-than-usual rates of evapotranspiration. A reduction of 2023 of precipitation over an extended period of 3 years is enough to raise serious water scarcity conditions in the country. Correlations between monthly time series of both grid-based TWSA and ground-based water storage measurements at 16 reservoirs located within southeastern Brazil varied from 0.42 to 0.82. Differences are mainly explained by reservoir sizes and proximity to the drought nucleus.

terrestrial↗

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001(SWMU 01) 2023 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2023 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. Annual LTM of groundwater is being conducted at the site. Based on results from groundwater sampling activities performed during the 2019 through 2020 LTM reporting period and the 2020 and 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, it was determined that the LTM sampling plan was no longer meeting the goal of LTM because delineation was not verified and the installation of an air sparge (AS) system to treat the area of the High Concentration Plume was recommended. The AS System was installed in late 2022 and early 2023. System start-up activities were initiated in April 2023. Following system startup, several site wells required retrofitting to equip wellheads for withstanding the air pressure released from air sparge wells during system operation. Some site wells also required repair or abandonment, and replacement. Survey of location and top-of-casing of newly installed monitoring wells was combined with scheduled AS system survey activities and was completed in January 2024. The activities presented in this report include the February and April 2023 LTM monitoring well installations; March and April 2023 LTM and performance monitoring well water level gauging and sampling; November 2023 LTM well retrofits and repairs; a summary of December 2023 LTM well abandonments and installations (complete site well abandonment activities will be presented under a separate cover); and January 2024 LTM well survey. During the March and April 2023 sampling events, the low-flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a select list of volatile organic compounds. In March 2023, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west was generally consistent with historical observations at the site. The Low Concentration Plume (LCP) continues to extend both horizontally and vertically beyond the terminal depth of the current monitoring well network. Data, inclusive of the 2023 LTM and baseline performance monitoring sampling events, indicate that the LCP encompasses an estimated 19.5 acres, compared to the 2021 LCP footprint, inclusive of the 2020 and 2021 DPT sampling events of 20.7 acres. The vertical extent of VOCs was historically delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet below land surface (bls). The results from the three vertical extent monitoring wells screened below 48 feet bls that were sampled during the 2023 LTM indicate that groundwater vinyl chloride concentrations in these three wells are greater than the GCTL. As presented in the 2021 Long-Term Monitoring Report (NASA 2022), the KSCRT agreed to delay deeper investigations in this area to prevent the creation of additional pathways for vertical migration. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed in 2023, recommendations are to perform the next annual LTM sampling event, scheduled for April 2024 and to conduct quarterly performance monitoring of the AS System. The current selection of monitoring wells in the recommended 2024 LTM plan will provide an adequate data set for monitoring groundwater plume behavior; however, the LTM monitoring well network will be evaluated and refined based on 2024 LTM and year one performance monitoring data.

King Linnea↗

Collaborative Research: Properties and Dynamics of the Shallow Crust (Final Report)

Ground motions recorded at one location are often extrapolated to nearby regions within a given radius. Here, we explore the appropriateness of spatial extrapolation using data from seven small aperture seismic network deployments in southern California. Six of these deployments are linear arrays of 4-13 stations, and one is a 2D array of 13 stations at Pinyon Flats Observatory. The spatial footprint array diameters are 3 km or less, and each array was operational for a year or more. From our base catalog (M2.5+ earthquakes; 4038 events; September 2010 - June 2023), automated methods remove temporally overprinted waveforms from nearby events (< 5 km) in quick succession (< 5 min) and data with nonviable waveforms. These 200 samples per second data are filtered at 0.5-25 Hz and must have signal-tonoise ratios (SNRs) of 2.5+. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) are derived individually from the maximum absolute values of each of the 3-component waveforms (vertical, northsouth, and east-west). Five of the seven arrays traverse the San Jacinto fault, and two do not. Ground motion observations are compared with theoretical estimates from Abrahamson et al., 2014. On average, arrays deployed within and across fault zones consistently record ground motions above theoretical expectations, whereas off-fault arrays record ground motions at or slightly below theoretical expectations. We attribute these differences to site conditions because these trends prevail for the full data suites. For each network and each individual channel, the coefficient of variation indicates that the standard deviations are ~30±6% of the mean. Exploring relative ground motion contributions from all three channels (ternary plots), as expected, most data show that vertical ground motions are attenuated compared to horizontal ones. However, this is not always the case for RA array data, where vertical motions can be ~2-3 times larger than horizontal motions for select events near Cahuilla, CA. These anomalously high vertical motions are focal mechanism-related. These results suggest that ternary plots created using only a small amount of data can be used as a data quality metric and a tool to find anomalous features in three-component data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tri-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding Using Spectral Clustering

Traditional load shedding schemes can be inadequate in grids with high renewable penetration, leading to unstable events and unnecessary grid islanding. Although for both manual and automatic operating modes load shedding areas have been predefined by grid operators, they have remained fixed, and may be sub-optimal due to dynamic operating conditions. In this work, a distributed tri-level linear programming model for automatic load shedding to avoid system islanding is presented. Preventing islanding is preferred because it reduces the need for additional load shedding besides the disconnection of transmission lines between islands. This is crucial as maintaining the local generation-demand balance is necessary to preserve frequency stability. Furthermore, uneven distribution of generation resources among islands can lead to increased load shedding, causing economic and reliability challenges. This issue is further compounded in modern power systems heavily dependent on non-dispatchable resources like wind and solar. The upper-level model uses complex power flow measurements to determine the system areas to shed load depending on actual operating conditions using a spectral clustering approach. The mid-level model estimates the area system state, while the lower-level model determines the locations and load values to be shed. The solution is practical and promising for real-world applications.

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗