SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “energy uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Validating and Comparing Energy Estimation Methods at Water Resource Recovery Facilities

Water resource recovery facilities play a crucial role in the water-energy nexus, consuming a substantial amount of energy in the United States. Growing treatment volumes and more stringent water quality standards are expected to increase the amount of energy needed to treat wastewater, but accurately estimating energy consumption and potential remains challenging due to variability in scale, treatment methods, and effluent treatment standards. In this study, we used publicly available data to evaluate the accuracy of methods for estimating energy consumption and generation, then quantified uncertainty based on key factors like flow rate, treatment level, and geographic location. To validate methods, we estimated energy consumption and generation at the facility-level, then compared estimates to self-reported data from utilities in major U.S. cities. We found that process models of treatment trains under best practice configurations were accurate relative to other methods for estimating electricity use, total energy use, and electricity generation from biogas utilization, and less complex methods based on effluent treatment level and prime movers also performed well for estimating electricity consumption and generation, respectively. Applying the evaluated methods to a national inventory of treatment facilities, we estimate that annual energy consumption ranged from 56.3 x 10^3 to 82.5 x 10^3 TJ in 2012 and 83.6 x 10^3 to 127 x 10^3 TJ in 2042. Our results indicate that not all estimation methods are suited for every use case, so we recommend that researchers and practitioners select an estimation method based on data availability and desired computational intensity.

Hodson, Abigayle↗

NASA NTRS1985

Voyager observations of ion phase space densities in the Jovian magnetosphere

Data from the Voyager low-energy charged particle experiment (LECP) were used to calculate ion phase space densities in Jupiter's magnetosphere. The calculation of F at constant mu and J(2) requires the determination of particle fluxes at specific pitch angles and energies. It is shown that the greatest uncertainties in the determination of F from LECP data arise from the fits to the measured pitch angle distributions and differential energy spectra. An estimate is provided of this uncertainty and of others arising from model radial diffusion coefficients and magnetic fields. The general nature of the curves is consistent with inward diffusion of these energetic ions from the outer magnetosphere combined with losses near but starting beyond the orbit of Io. These losses are not consistent with simple satellite sweeping by Io alone and are probably due to an Io-torus wave-particle interaction. The lifetime against loss deduced from the data is approximately 20,000 s near Io and is a value consistent with strong diffusion losses. The measured ion loss rate declines much more rapidly than the strong diffusion loss rate as L increases from 7 to 9, suggesting that the loss rate is well below the strong-diffusion rate beyond 7 Jupiter radii for ions observed by the LECP.

Paonessa, M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Properties of the neutron star crust: Quantifying and correlating uncertainties with improved nuclear physics

A compressible liquid-drop model (CLDM) is used to correlate uncertainties associated with the properties of the neutron star (NS) crust with theoretical estimates of the uncertainties associated with the equation of state (EOS) of homogeneous neutron and nuclear matter. For the latter, we employ recent calculations based on Hamiltonians constructed using chiral effective-field theory (χEFT). Fits to experimental nuclear masses are employed to constrain the CLDM further, and we find that they disfavor some of the χEFT Hamiltonians. The CLDM allows us to study the complex interplay between bulk, surface, curvature, and Coulomb contributions, and their impact on the NS crust. It also reveals how the curvature energy alters the correlation between the surface energy and the bulk symmetry energy. Here our analysis quantifies how the uncertainties associated with the EOS of homogeneous matter implies significant uncertainties for the composition of the crust, its proton fraction, and the volume fraction occupied by nuclei. We find that the finite-size effects impact the crust composition but have a negligible effect on the net isospin asymmetry of matter. The isospin asymmetry is largely determined by the bulk properties and the isospin dependence of the surface energy. The most significant uncertainties associated with matter properties in the densest regions of the crust, the precise location of the crust-core transition, are found to be strongly correlated with uncertainties associated with the Hamiltonians. By adopting a unified model to describe the crust and the core of NSs, we tighten the correlation between their global properties such as their mass-radius relationship, moment of inertia, crust thickness, and tidal deformability with uncertainties associated with the nuclear Hamiltonians.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Impact of Damping Uncertainty on SEA Model Response Variance

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is commonly used to predict high-frequency vibroacoustic levels. This statistical approach provides the mean response over an ensemble of random subsystems that share the same gross system properties such as density, size, and damping. Recently, techniques have been developed to predict the ensemble variance as well as the mean response. However these techniques do not account for uncertainties in the system properties. In the present paper uncertainty in the damping loss factor is propagated through SEA to obtain more realistic prediction bounds that account for both ensemble and damping variance. The analysis is performed on a floor-equipped cylindrical test article that resembles an aircraft fuselage. Realistic bounds on the damping loss factor are determined from measurements acquired on the sidewall of the test article. The analysis demonstrates that uncertainties in damping have the potential to significantly impact the mean and variance of the predicted response.

Schiller, Noah↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bay Area Regional Energy: Network Integrated Commercial Retrofits (BRICR) Project. Final Report

The BRICR project applied large-scale building energy modeling concepts with the aim of reducing the cost of energy efficiency targeting, design, and project development, and measurement of energy savings for energy efficiency programs implemented by local governments that serve small and medium commercial buildings (SMB). The project leveraged the services and resources of existing local government energy programs serving disadvantaged and hard-to-reach SMB customers. In contrast to programs run by utilities, local government programs generally do not have direct access to energy billing records for an entire class of customers in a geographic area, which prior research demonstrated useful for large-scale building energy model baseline development and calibration. , However, local governments are rich in public records that offer important clues about physical attributes and uses that, along with behavior, determine energy use. Relying only on public records, BRICR demonstrated development of credible baseline energy models for 3,792 office, retail, and hotel buildings. Publicly disclosed annual energy use data from a local energy benchmarking program and anonymized data from the Building Performance Database, the nation’s largest dataset about energy-related characteristics of buildings, were utilized to validate and calibrate energy models via an innovative method comparing distributions of energy intensity by fuel type for portfolios of buildings of similar size, vintage, and use. Portfolio calibration does not provide certainty that an energy model fits an individual building; the method is useful when billing data is not accessible – a common situation for researchers, energy service providers and ESCOs, local governments, and any party other than a utility. A software component was developed, the BRICR gem, which automates simulation when relevant data is added or edited by the user to a file saved in the standardized BuildingSync XML schema for energy audit data. The component was demonstrated as a simplified means to generate a mass of energy models corresponding to public records containing basic attributes such as building scale, location, use, year built, and aspect ratio in combination with building energy code prototype data corresponding to use and vintage. The component was also demonstrated as a simplified means to automate energy simulation when attributes are revised; the intention was to enable iterative improvement of the baseline model and energy savings estimates for common energy conservation measures as users revise relevant attributes based on their observations. In the context of institutional change and uncertainty for the participating local government energy programs, 13 whole building retrofits were completed. Impacts were measured by applying the CalTRACK2.0 methods to standardize measurement of normalized metered energy consumption. The GRIDMeter methods of stratified sampling and individual load shape analysis were applied to adjust for impacts of the effect of COVID-19 on retrofitted buildings in the context of all local buildings of similar size and use. Excluding impacts of the pandemic, retrofitted buildings demonstrated between 1.6% and 25.1% reduction in energy use. The project contributed use cases and feedback that helped inform evolution of the software tools and data formats that were combined for the first time in the BRICR project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

One Galaxy Sample to Rule Them All: Halo Occupation Distribution Modeling of DES Year 3 Source Galaxies

Abstract For the joint analysis of second-order weak-lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, so-called 3 × 2 analyses, the selection and characterization of optimal galaxy samples is a major area of research. One promising choice is to use the same galaxy sample as lenses and sources, which reduces the systematics parameter space that describes the uncertainties related to galaxy samples. Such a “lens-equal-source” analysis significantly improves the self-calibration of photo- z systematics, leading to improved cosmological constraints. With the aim of enabling a lens-equal-source analysis on small scales, we investigate the halo–galaxy connection of DES Year 3 source galaxies. We develop a technique to construct mock source galaxy populations by matching COSMOS/UltraVISTA photometry to U niverse M achine galaxies. These mocks predict a source halo occupation distribution (HOD) that exhibits significant redshift evolution, nontrivial central incompleteness, and galaxy assembly bias. We produce multiple realizations of mock source galaxies drawn from the U niverse M achine posterior, with added uncertainties in the measured Dark Energy Survey photometry and galaxy shapes. We fit a modified HOD formalism to these realizations to produce priors on the galaxy–halo connection for cosmological analyses. We additionally train an emulator that predicts this HOD to ∼2% accuracy from redshift z = 0.1−1.3 that models the dependence of this HOD on (1) observational uncertainties in galaxy size and photometry and (2) uncertainties in the U niverse M achine predictions.

Salcedo, Andrés N. (ORCID:000000031420527X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of three-dimensional inclusive muon-neutrino charged-current cross sections on argon with the MicroBooNE detector

We report the measurement of the triple-differential cross section d 3 σ/dE vis d cos(θ μ )dP μ for inclusive muon-neutrino charged-current scattering on argon. This measurement utilizes data from 6.4 x 10 20 protons on target of exposure collected using the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber located along the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam with a mean neutrino energy of approximately 0.8 GeV. The mapping from reconstructed kinematics to truth quantities is validated within uncertainties by comparing the distribution of reconstructed hadronic energy in data to that of the model prediction in different muon scattering angle bins after applying a conditional constraint from the muon momentum distribution in data. The success of this validation provides confidence that the energy transfer in the MicroBooNE detector is well-modeled within simulation uncertainties, enabling a reliable unfolding to a triple-differential cross section defined at the nominal neutrino flux over muon momentum, muon scattering angle, and visible neutrino energy. This validation not only supports accurate cross-section extraction, but also establishes a critical foundation for tuning interaction models used in future neutrino oscillation measurements. The unfolded measurement covers an extensive phase space, providing a wealth of information useful for future liquid argon time projection chamber experiments measuring neutrino oscillations. Comparisons against a number of commonly used model predictions are included and their performance in different parts of the available phase-space is discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Branching Dueling Q-Network Based Online Scheduling of a Microgrid With Distributed Energy Storage Systems

This letter investigates a Branching Dueling Q-Network (BDQ) based online operation strategy for a microgrid with distributed battery energy storage systems (BESSs) operating under uncertainties. Additionally, the developed deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based microgrid online optimization strategy can achieve a linear increase in the number of neural network outputs with the number of distributed BESSs, which overcomes the curse of dimensionality caused by the charge and discharge decisions of multiple BESSs. Numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Framework for Emulation of Nuclear Calculations

We introduce a hierarchical framework that combines ab initio many-body calculations with a Bayesian neural network, developing emulators capable of accurately predicting nuclear properties across isotopic chains simultaneously and being applicable to different regions of the nuclear chart. We benchmark our developments using the oxygen isotopic chain, achieving accurate results for ground-state energies and nuclear charge radii, while providing robust uncertainty quantification. Our framework enables global sensitivity analysis of nuclear binding energies and charge radii with respect to the low-energy constants that describe the nuclear force.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

NASA NTRS1984

Relative potentials of concentrating and two-axis tracking flat-plate photovoltaic arrays for central-station applications

The purpose of this study is to assess the relative economic potentials of concenrating and two-axis tracking flat-plate photovoltaic arrays for central-station applications in the mid-1990's. Specific objectives of this study are to provide information on concentrator photovoltaic collector probabilistic price and efficiency levels to illustrate critical areas of R&D for concentrator cells and collectors, and to compare concentrator and flat-plate PV price and efficiency alternatives for several locations, based on their implied costs of energy. To deal with the uncertainties surrounding research and development activities in general, a probabilistic assessment of commercially achievable concentrator photovoltaic collector efficiencies and prices (at the factory loading dock) is performed. The results of this projection of concentrator photovoltaic technology are then compared with a previous flat-plate module price analysis (performed early in 1983). To focus this analysis on specific collector alternatives and their implied energy costs for different locations, similar two-axis tracking designs are assumed for both concentrator and flat-plate options.

Borden, C. S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Future of High-Energy Astrophysical Neutrino Flavor Measurements

The next generation of neutrino telescopes, including Baikal-GVD, KM3NeT, P-ONE, TAMBO, and IceCube-Gen2, will be able to determine the flavor of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos with 10% uncertainties. With the aid of future neutrino oscillation experiments --- in particular JUNO, DUNE, and Hyper-Kamiokande --- the regions of flavor composition at Earth that are allowed by neutrino oscillations will shrink by a factor of ten between 2020 and 2040. We critically examine the ability of future experiments and show how these improvements will help us pin down the source of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos and a sub-dominant neutrino production mechanism with and without unitarity assumed. As an illustration of beyond-the-Standard-Model physics, we also show that the future neutrino measurements will constrain the decay rate of heavy neutrinos to be below $2\times 10^{-5}~$$m$/eV/s assuming they decay into invisible particles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Science Validation for Dark Energy Research with Optical Imaging Surveys

The Universe has been expanding at an accelerating rate over the past several billion years, as though an unknown form of dark energy permeates all of space. The ultimate scientific goal of the proposed research is to distinguish between different physical mechanisms that could account for this observed accelerated expansion, for example, the zero-point energy of the vacuum, a dynamical form of energy that varies in time and/or space, or a modification to our theory of gravity. Wide- field optical imaging surveys of the night sky can test these competing models by measuring both the cosmic expansion history and the growth of large-scale structure. To this end, the Dark Energy Survey (DES) has cataloged several hundred million galaxies and thousands of supernovae. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), will enlarge the census to billions of galaxies and hundreds of thousands of supernovae. A critical question for these dark energy experiments is whether systematic uncertainties can continue to be controlled at a level to keep pace with the statistical precision offered by such enormous datasets. The immediate research objectives of this project were (1) to prepare and validate input datasets that are the foundation of cosmological analyses with DES, and (2) to prepare for value-added characterization of Rubin Observatory commissioning data to inform early operations and accelerate the realization of dark energy science from LSST data products. For DES, we assembled and curated cosmology-ready data releases that include value-added components such as enhanced photometric and astrometric calibrations, alternative source extraction algorithms, maps of the survey coverage and survey conditions, object classifications, object quality selections, galaxy shapes, and photometric redshifts. We used the galaxy clustering technique to validate the photometric redshift distributions of various galaxy samples to be used as lenses in combined studies of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing. The galaxy clustering redshift analysis was enhanced by use of a larger sample of reference galaxies from the eBOSS spectroscopic survey that extends to higher redshifts. For LSST, we prepared for science validation studies of commissioning data aimed at dark energy science capability that extend beyond the normative system-level tests to be done by the Rubin Observatory Construction Project. We identified a set of proposed survey strategies and candidate target fields that could be observed during the commissioning period to enhance science validation activities related to studies of dark energy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Energy Resources Bidding Model (HERB) v1.0

The HERB Model provides a stochastic optimization framework for hybrid power plants (Storage plus Renewables) participating in day-ahead electricity markets. It considers uncertainty in market prices and renewable energy generation and generated risk-constrained price-quantity bid curves with limited, non-decreasing price steps.

Heleno, Miguel [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Energy-Optimized Path Planning for Uas in Varying Winds Via Reinforcement Learning

In this paper we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for path planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to UAV path planning problems are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs need to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health, and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as reinforcement learning (RL) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. In this study, we compute UAV trajectories from a pre-determined starting position to a target cell within a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in any of the eight cardinal and inter-cardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The resultant UAV state is sampled from a probability distribution which accounts for the UAV’s action, local wind velocity, and the presence of obstacles or boundaries. As the unmanned airspace gets more complex due to multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance need to be made. Our Markov Decision Process (MDP) environment model can capture any combination of these in the optimization objective, making it novel compared to other work in the field.

trajectory planning↗

NASA NTRS2021

A sampling-based optimization approach to handling environmental uncertainty for a planetary lander

Planning for unknown environments presents a number of technical challenges. The planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution, all while operating in a capacity that maximizes its objective. Productivity in the face of these challenges re-quires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem constrained on a depletable energy resource. We propose an uncertainty–sensitive deterministic planning framework that utilizes periodic replanning to better handle model uncertainty and variable execution. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework through simulations of a Europa Lander concept mission in which our algorithm out-performs several baseline approaches in both utility maximization and robustness

Zilberstein, Shlomo↗