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At least 397 records · Page 22

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

bifacial↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

energy modeling↗

Equilibrium shapes of facetted 3D metal nanoclusters intercalated near the surface of layered materials

Experimental studies indicate that 3D crystalline metal nanoclusters (NCs) intercalated under the surface of graphite have flat-topped equilibrated shapes. In this work, we characterize the shapes of these facetted NCs sandwiched between a blanketing graphene layer and the underlying graphite substrate. Specifically, we focus on the cases of fcc Cu and hcp Fe NCs. Furthermore, the analysis involves numerical minimization of the system energy for a specified NC volume and NC height, the latter corresponding to the separation between parallel top and bottom facets. Our numerical analysis quantifies how the distance of the side facet planes from center of the nanocluster varies linearly with a natural characteristic linear dimension of the nanocluster. Calculated shapes of fcc Cu and hcp Fe NCs are consistent with the hexagonal footprints observed in scanning tunneling microscopy studies.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

RADIANCE Executive Summary

Microgrids are gaining attention from organizations and cities because of their potential reliability and resilience benefits, especially in remote geographic areas: Microgrids can provide local power during emergencies, and they can reduce the costs of imported fuel by reducing overall fuel use. But the complexities and novelties of microgrid technologies are often barriers to deployment that require testing and validation to overcome. This report describes the testing, validation, and deployment of microgrid technologies in Cordova, Alaska, completed through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) project Resilient Alaskan Distribution system Improvements using Automation, Network analysis, Control, and Energy storage (RADIANCE).

ARIES↗

University Coalition for Fossil Fuel Energy Research

Following a nationwide open competition, the University Coalition for Fossil Energy Research (UCFER) was established in October 2015 through a cooperative agreement between Penn State and the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Penn State lead UCFER with the objective of advancing basic and applied research for clean and low-carbon energy based on fossil fuels in support of the DOE’s mission. UCFER focused on research that improves the efficiency of production and use of fossil energy resources, while minimizing the environmental impacts and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Penn State lead a team of nine universities (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Pennsylvania State University, Princeton University, Texas A&M University, University of Kentucky, University of Southern California, The University of Tulsa, University of Wyoming, and Virginia Polytechnic and State University) during the competition stage, adding seven more universities in 2017 (Carnegie Mellon University, Louisiana State University, The Ohio State University, University of North Dakota, University of Pittsburgh, University of Utah, and West Virginia University). This Coalition exhibited a wide geographical distribution across the U.S. bringing a wide variety of fossil energy expertise. This national university alliance was a major collaborative effort with NETL to address specific topics of R&D in NETL’s mission area, which involved one or more of NETL’s five core competencies (Geologic and Environmental Systems, Materials Engineering and Manufacturing, Energy Conversion Engineering, Systems Engineering and Analysis, and Computational Science and Engineering). The first five to six months of the project was the definitization stage. During this period, Penn State worked closely with NETL to finalize the Coalition organizational structure and By- Laws, prepare a statement of substantial involvement and a statement of project objectives, and develop operations and membership plans. A major component of this stage included preparing an execution plan to solicit research, evaluate proposals, recommend selected projects to NETL, and award projects. In addition, a plan was prepared to monitor projects, review projects, disseminate knowledge from research projects and develop an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. This included developing a website and several databases. The first of six rounds of solicitations started in mid-2016. Projects from the sixth solicitation started February 1, 2021, and ended January 31, 2023. Projects that were selected represented twelve technology lines. Approximately $16.6 million in funding was available for the six solicitations. Most of the funding was provided by DOE, Office of Fossil Energy (DOEFE) with the DOE Fuel Cells Technologies Office (DOE-FCTO) providing funding for a few projects. Coalition universities submitted 259 proposals in response to the solicitations, requesting approximately $67.0 million in funding, and forty-three projects were selected. However, one project withdrew after the principal investigator left the university. The management of the Coalition projects was a major activity by Penn State. Managing the Coalition projects consisted of monitoring the projects, reviewing the projects through annual technical review meetings, disseminating knowledge from the research projects, and developing an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. Penn State’s OMT monitored projects to ensure that all milestones (technical, schedule, budget) were met, expenditures were allowable, cost share (when applicable) were reported, and all technical reports were submitted. The OMT also posted the technical reports electronically on a secure members-only website for access and review by the Coalition members. Disseminating knowledge from the research projects was done through a website, newsletters, various meetings, conferences, journal articles, publicity/press releases, and project summaries that were prepared after each project was completed. Penn State kept NETL apprised of UCFER progress through quarterly reports (thirtyone were submitted by Penn State), verbal and written communications, yearly updates at the annual technical review meetings, and cost accrual reports. The UCFER project had a significant impacty. The UCFER program established the first national university alliance in fossil energy research with a major collaboration effort with DOE NETL that addressed specific topics in NETL’s research and development mission areas. It generated inter-university collaborations, which was another program interest. Twenty-two out of 259 proposals contained collaborations (≈8.5%) and three of forty-two funded projects involved inter-university collaborations (≈7.0%). The forty-two funded projects provided support at fourteen universities involving 269 personnel. Research was conducted by 106 faculty, 115 graduate and undergraduate students, forty-six research staff and post-doctoral scholars, and two visiting scholars. Students and post-doctoral scholars were also on-site at NETL through CRADAs. In addition, non-Coalition participants included six universities and sixteen companies and national laboratories. The non-Coalition participants were involved as subcontractors, providers of cost share, performed unpaid consultation and sample analysis, served as advisory board members, or were providers of samples and materials for testing. UCFER also produced visibility in that fifty-six refereed journal articles were published, fifty-seven conference papers and twenty-three posters were prepared, 190 presentations were given, eight patent applications were filed, two books/book chapters were written, and ten software codes were developed. Collaboration between NETL and the individual projects was a major requirement for all funded projects. This included NETL staff time to support collaboration, consultation, technical guidance, sample preparation and analysis, internships at NETL, on-site testing and equipment usage by Coalition participants at NETL, co-mentoring students, and coauthoring journal articles and conference papers. Collaboration was impacted by COVID-19 in that not all on-site activities could be performed. NETL personnel were coauthors on eight of the conference papers (fourteen percent of the conference papers that were prepared) and seventeen of the journal articles (thirty percent of the journal articles that were prepared). A website was developed for an online proposal solicitation and review process and to provide exposure to UCFER. A website analysis highlighted the large amount of member and general public interest in UCFER by interpreting access statistics from March 2016 through June 2023. Visitors to the site originated from many different organizations, businesses, and countries. The website provided a means to disseminate information to both the general public and the UCFER members and was successfully used for outreach activities. In addition, NETL required that RFP release, proposal submission, and proposal reviews all be performed online. Penn State successfully developed these capabilities in a secure section of the website, which were used throughout the UCFER project. It is recognized that each project had its technical successes. In addition, highlighted successes were compiled and summarized from the research projects. Information was requested from the PIs of completed projects. In addition, Penn State’s Operations Management Team reviewed subcontract reports to identify project successes. Examples of information requested from PIs included (not all-inclusive): new projects that have been funded as a result of UCFER funding; new commercial products; establishment of a new center; new patent; new software; best paper awards; highly-cited work; and graduate student successes. A total of forty-eight highlighted successes were reported.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Thermal analysis of heat storage canisters for a solar dynamic, space power system

A thermal analysis was performed of a thermal energy storage canister of a type suggested for use in a solar receiver for an orbiting Brayton cycle power system. Energy storage for the eclipse portion of the cycle is provided by the latent heat of a eutectic mixture of LiF and CaF2 contained in the canister. The chief motivation for the study is the prediction of vapor void effects on temperature profiles and the identification of possible differences between ground test data and projected behavior in microgravity. The first phase of this study is based on a two-dimensional, cylindrical coordinates model using an interim procedure for describing void behavor in 1-g and microgravity. The thermal analysis includes the effects of solidification front behavior, conduction in liquid/solid salt and canister materials, void growth and shrinkage, radiant heat transfer across the void, and convection in the melt due to Marangoni-induced flow and, in 1-g, flow due to density gradients. A number of significant differences between 1-g and o-g behavior were found. This resulted from differences in void location relative to the maximum heat flux and a significantly smaller effective conductance in 0-g due to the absence of gravity-induced convection.

Wichner, R. P.↗

The Department of Energy and IDEA team up to document industry best practices

This article describes a collaboration between the U.S. Department of Energy and the International District Energy Association (IDEA) to document best practices in district energy systems. The initiative focuses on analyzing real-world performance data and highlighting effective strategies for improving efficiency, integrating renewable energy, and supporting decarbonization efforts. It highlights case studies from the University of California, Davis, and Princeton University to show how long-term master planning, phased project implementation, and strong financial analysis can drive successful transitions to more sustainable energy systems. U.C. Davis emphasizes incremental, results-driven planning and pilot projects, while Princeton focuses on aligning climate goals with financially viable infrastructure investments and life-cycle cost analysis. Overall, the article demonstrates that combining strategic planning, data-driven decision-making, and financial accountability is essential for advancing sustainable district energy systems.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell Systems

This National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) study describes the results of a pathway study for coal-based integrated gasification and solid oxide fuel cell (IGFC) power systems with and without carbon capture and storage. Two pathway scenarios are considered, based on the operating pressure of the SOFC. Three gasification technologies, including a conventional technology, differing in the syngas methane content, which has a significant effect on the IGFC system performance, were considered. The performance and cost benefits were estimated for a series of projected gains made through the development of advances in the component technologies or improvements in plant costs and availability. The objective of the study is to provide targeted research and development guidance to the FECM SOFC Program and SOFC commercial developers.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Energy impact of short-haul STOL systems

An analysis has been made to evaluate the impact on fuel requirements of a segregated short-haul system. A comparison has been made between two alternate scenarios: one with STOL, and the other without STOL. For the New York to Washington, D.C. city pair the results show: (1) the modal efficiency approach, while indicating the with STOL scenario requires more fuel than the without STOL scenario, is of questionable validity because it does not account for various effects which exist in realistic scenarios; (2) evaluation of fuel requirements based on more detailed modeling indicates that while a STOL scenario requires more fuel than without STOL when an idealized CTOL system is postulated, the STOL scenario requires less fuel than without STOL when the CTOL system has even moderate delays. These results are due to a combination of effects: the closer and more convenient locations of STOL ports to the traveler, congestion at the CTOL airports, and the impact of the through passenger traffic. Sensitivity of results to STOL aircraft block fuel and to CTOL congestion delays are considered.

Stewart, E. C.↗

Using occupant interaction with advanced lighting systems to understand opportunities for energy optimization: Control data from a hospital NICU

For this study, lighting system control data from five patient rooms in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) over a 25-week monitoring period were analyzed to better understand how the NICU staff and families interacted with an automatic tunable lighting system (variable spectrum and intensity) with manual override options. The data were analyzed to determine the amount of time spent in available lighting modes, estimate energy consumption, and to observe any patterns in how the lighting system was being used by occupants. Further analysis revealed opportunities for optimizing the system for occupant needs and energy savings. The patient room occupants were clearly engaged in using the lighting system throughout the 24-hour day to meet needs and preferences. Giving occupants control over the lighting system did not result in a considerable increase in energy use. Implementing a time-out would minimize the extended periods of time when the lights were left on without need at the highest brightness level, further decreasing energy use. This analysis reveals the potential of lighting control data to contribute to energy savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study - Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 [Slides]

Lithuania's Energy Vision aims to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity generation by 2035 and transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible while maintaining affordability, reliability, and energy security. The Lithuania Energy Agency (LEA) is partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study (Lithuania 100) to provide evidence-based analysis for development of Lithuania's National Energy Independence Strategy. The Lithuania 100 Study leverages unique tools and capabilities of NREL to provide rigorous technical analysis of clean energy policies to achieve 100% renewable energy, and assess impacts on electricity grid operations, hydrogen system development, electricity distribution networks, air quality, and human health outcomes. The study is supported by a stakeholder committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy of Lithuania and implemented by four technical working groups. This report provides highlights of key interim results from modeling of Lithuania's near-term electricity grid through the year 2030. Results show that Lithuania has sufficient renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and interconnection with neighboring European Union countries to reliably meet projected 2030 electricity demand with 100% renewable energy. A range of scenarios were modeled, each of which achieves at least 100% renewable energy in electricity, on average over the year, by 2030. Potential demands for hydrogen across industrial and transportation sectors were also evaluated, as well as the cost of hydrogen produced in Lithuania by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermal Storage Applications Workshop. Volume 2: Contributed Papers

The solar thermal and the thermal and thermochemical energy storage programs are described as well as the technology requirements for both external (electrical) and internal (thermal, chemical) modes for energy storage in solar power plants. Specific technical issues addressed include thermal storage criteria for solar power plants interfacing with utility systems; optimal dispatch of storage for solar plants in a conventional electric grid; thermal storage/temperature tradeoffs for solar total energy systems; the value of energy storage for direct-replacement solar thermal power plants; systems analysis of storage in specific solar thermal power applications; the value of seasonal storage of solar energy; criteria for selection of the thermal storage system for a 10 MW(2) solar power plant; and the need for specific requirements by storage system development teams.

Source record↗