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At least 397 records · Page 22

Sierra/SD – Verification Test Manual – 5.22

Verification and validation (V&V) of scientific computing programs are important at Sandia National Labs due to the expanding role of computational simulation in managing the United States nuclear stockpile. The complexities of structural response calculations used to analyze physical problems, the varieties of codes applied to the calculations, and the importance of accurate predictions when assessing field conditions demand confidence in the consistency and accuracy of computer codes. Confidence in the accuracy of the predictions arising from computer simulations must ultimately be gained through verification and validation. The Sierra salinas structural dynamics analysis code, Sierra/SD, is used at the DOE Laboratories, and in several DOD projects. The roles of Sierra/SD in the qualification of weapon systems and components for normal and hostile environments throughout the Stockpile-to-Target Sequence include to, • Redesign weapon components. • Certify weapon components and systems for target environments such as hypersonic vehicles. • Certify that components will survive the thermal mechanical shock loads associated with hostile environments. • Evaluate current stockpile issues, including issues associated with uncertainty quantification. • Address many other problems that are encountered in stockpile management. The Sierra/SD verification plan is described, and an evolving set of key verification tests are described in detail. The verification tests ensure the correctness of the mathematics and numerical algorithms associated with functionality describing engineering phenomena. Development is in accordance with a set of tailored Software Quality Engineering (SQE) practices. SQE practices guide the overall verification and validation effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Economics of Crop Rotations With and Without Carinata for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in the SE United States

In 2019, the aviation sector in the United States emitted 255 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, i.e., about five percent of the total domestic CO 2 emissions from the energy sector. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) derived from carinata (Brassica carinata) could reduce CO 2 emissions of the aviation sector in the United States. Therefore, it is important to estimate changes in farm economics with and without carinata for ascertaining its production feasibility. In this context, the current study first assesses a combination of 12 popular rotations of corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean with winter crops of winter wheat and carinata in South Georgia over 4 years. Then, the net present values (NPVs) of 292 feasible cropping systems over 4 years are calculated. Finally, this study develops a risk model for ascertaining the probability distributions of NPVs for selected cropping systems subject to uncertainties related to prices and yields of summer and winter crops. Carinata in the corn-corn-soybean rotation has the highest NPV ($\$$2,996/ha). The least risky rotation is cotton-cotton-peanut, with a 58.9% probability of a positive NPV. Carinata can decrease the risk level of crop rotations by 8.1%, only if a contract price of $\$$440.9/t is offered. Therefore, a risk averse, risk neutral, or risk acceptant farmer can potentially include carinata in the rotation. Overall, carinata would increase the profitability of farm operations and decrease risk in the SE United States, and therefore, a high likelihood exists, that farmers would adopt it for meeting the growing demand for SAF in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Security Constrained Distributed Transaction Model for Multiple Prosumers

Massive access of renewable energy has prompted demand-side distributed resources to participate in regulation and improve flexibility of power systems. With large-scale access of massive, decentralized, and diverse distributed resources, demand-side market members have transformed from traditional “consumers” to “prosumers”. To explore the distributed transaction model of prosumers, in this paper, a multi-prosumer distributed transaction model is proposed, and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) theory is applied to quantify potential risks caused by the stochastic characteristics inherited from renewable energy. First, a prosumer model under constraints of the distribution network including photovoltaic units, fuel cells, energy storage system, central air conditioning and flexible loads is established, and a multi-prosumer distributed transaction strategy is proposed to achieve power sharing among multiple prosumers. Second, a prosumer transaction model based on CVaR is constructed to measure risks inherited from the uncertainty of PV output within the prosumer and ensure safety of system operation in extreme PV output scenarios. Then, the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM) is utilized to solve the constructed model efficiently. Finally, distributed transaction costs of prosumers are distributed fairly based on the generalized Nash equilibrium to maximize social benefits. Simulation results show the multi-prosumer distributed transaction mechanism established under the proposed generalized Nash equilibrium method can encourage power sharing among prosumers, increasing their own income and social benefits. Also, the CVaR can assist decision making of prosumers in weighting the risks and benefits, improving system resilience through energy management of prosumers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessment of wind power scenario creation methods for stochastic power systems operations

Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production, such as wind, have been gaining popularity for use in stochastic variants of power systems operations scheduling problems, allowing for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The quality of the scenarios has a direct impact on the value of the resulting decisions, but until now, methods for creating scenarios have not been compared under realistic operational conditions. Here, we compare the quality of scenario sets created using three different methods, based on a simulated re-enactment of stochastic day-ahead unit commitment and subsequent dispatch for a realistic test system. We create scenarios using a dataset of forecasted and actual wind power values, scaled to evaluate the effects of increasing wind penetration levels. We show that the choice of scenario set can significantly impact system operating cost, renewable energy use, and the ability of the system to meet demand. This result has implications for the ability of system operators to efficiently integrate renewable production into their day-ahead planning, highlighting the need for the use of performance-based assessments for scenario evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a plant carbon–nitrogen interface coupling framework in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0)

Plant and microbial nitrogen (N) dynamics and N availability regulate the photosynthetic capacity and capture, allocation, and turnover of carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems. Studies have shown that a wide divergence in representations of N dynamics in land surface models leads to large uncertainties in the biogeochemical cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and then in climate simulations as well as the projections of future trajectories. In this study, a plant C–N interface coupling framework is developed and implemented in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0). The main concept and structure of this plant C–N framework and its coupling strategy are presented in this study. This framework takes more plant N-related processes into account. The dynamic ratio (CNR) for each plant functional type (PFT) is introduced to consider plant resistance and adaptation to N availability to better evaluate the plant response to N limitation. Furthermore, when available N is less than plant N demand, plant growth is restricted by a lower maximum carboxylation capacity of RuBisCO (V c,max ), reducing gross primary productivity (GPP). In addition, a module for plant respiration rates is introduced by adjusting the respiration with different rates for different plant components at the same N concentration. Since insufficient N can potentially give rise to lags in plant phenology, the phenological scheme is also adjusted in response to N availability. All these considerations ensure a more comprehensive incorporation of N regulations to plant growth and C cycling. This new approach has been tested systematically to assess the effects of this coupling framework and N limitation on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Long-term measurements from flux tower sites with different PFTs and global satellite-derived products are employed as references to assess these effects. The results show a general improvement with the new plant C–N coupling framework, with more consistent emergent properties, such as GPP and leaf area index (LAI), compared to the observations. The main improvements occur in tropical Africa and boreal regions, accompanied by a decrease in the bias in global GPP and LAI by 16.3 % and 27.1 %, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Getting lost tracking the carbon footprint of hydropower

In the transition to low-carbon electricity, well-quantified estimates of carbon dynamics are needed to ensure that emissions reduction targets are achieved. Here we review the state of the science on carbon accounting for hydropower reservoirs and identify limitations and future solutions. Nearly all research on reservoir greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has focused on individual reservoirs in isolation without considering their position in a freshwater network draining organic matter from upstream watersheds or the coordinated operation of reservoir cascades. Second, carbon inventories have extrapolated from a small, non-probabilistic sample of highly variable measurements of GHG emissions to unsampled reservoirs. A stronger statistical foundation is needed to estimate a global inventory and its uncertainty. Third, attribution to hydropower is based on ranks assigned to reservoir purpose. Instead, the physical influence of hydropower on carbon dynamics could be directly measured. Fourth, current carbon-accounting practices neglect time. A time-varying approach would quantify variation in emissions for electricity portfolios from changes in the fuel mix at different times and account for ancillary services, i.e., the ability to support the grid when variable renewables are not available without using natural gas. Reservoirs also sequester a significant portion of inflowing carbon in sediments and slow the carbon cycle by delaying the return of carbon to the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Together, these refinements would help to illuminate pathways toward meeting energy demand with the longest-possible delay in returning carbon to the atmosphere and without adding ancient sources to the pool of carbon cycling through aquatic ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

All-Atom Simulation of 3D Hot Spot Formation in Shocked TATB Explosive

TATB is an insensitive high explosive (IHE) critical to the stockpile that is challenging to model at the continuum scale. Advanced detonation models in the Cheetah high explosive chemistry code require validation though subscale simulations. High explosive initiation is determined by micron-scale physics of hot spots formed a shock-collapsed pores. Pore sizes between 100 nm and 1 μm are believed to be the most important for determining the shock sensitivity of TATB. This range of pore sizes is difficult to access at the atomic scale through allatom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, even with Sierra-class computers. Quasi-2D simulations are widely used and allow much larger pore sizes (up to 400 nm) to be studied, but the applicability of 2D simulations to the actual 3D pore response is not understood. Resolving these uncertainties through “full physics” MD modeling is key for generalizing, parameterizing, and validating the kinds of continuum models used to inform design, safety, and performance. This work was a continuation of FY20 efforts pushing simulations to full 3D with the largest-ever all-atom simulations of an explosive. These were the first all-atom full-3D simulations of large hot spots thought to govern explosive detonation and required over a billion atoms. Simulations were performed using LAMMPS, an open SNL science code. MD explosive models present unique challenges, even for established codes such as LAMMPS. Their model forms are more complex than typical models for metals, while simulating high temperature-pressure conditions is demanding and increases computational cost. Scaling problems in GPU-enabled MD algorithms initially limited simulations to <100 million atoms but were resolved through collaboration with SNL. An overall 24x speedup was obtained relative to CPU machines. Specialized analysis of these simulations required a bottom-up refactoring and algorithm parallelization of in-house codes and application of computer vision algorithms to extract meaningful information.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Process design and techno-economic analysis for bio-based graphite and liquid hydrocarbons production from lignocellulosic biomass

The worldwide demand for graphite, as the main anode material for Li-ion batteries, is expected to double by 2028 since it supports the use of electricity, including transient renewable sources, for energy storage, sustainable mobility, and automation. However, the dependence on non-renewable and external resources jeopardizes the world supply chain. This study explores the technical and economic performance of transforming lignocellulosic biomass into biographite and fuel-grade hydrocarbons through pyrolysis bio-oil upgrading. According to simulation results, the total power demand for the biorefinery reached 10,784 kWh per tonne of biographite, of which 36 % can be supplied by the heat integration network and power plant. Sensitivity and risk analyses were conducted to evaluate the economics, with process yields identified as the most relevant indicators to the minimum selling price (MSP). The analysis revealed a promising cost-competitive range for biographite MSP against fossil-based graphite (medium quality synthetic graphite Chinese market price ~$\$$4.2/kg). Case D, which includes biofuels as a byproduct, presents the best metrics, reaching a MSP of $\$$3.3/kg of anode-grade biographite with a profit margin of 27 %. While including biofuels in the product slate provides the best economic performance, the uncertainty associated with the big capital investment makes its risk 13 % higher to attain an IRR >20 % than the case in which biographite is produced as a standalone product. Overall, this study demonstrates that integrated biorefineries can produce a cost-competitive bio-based anode material for Li-ion batteries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO 2 on global plant transpiration

As CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere rises, there is a need for improved physical understanding of its impact on global plant transpiration. This knowledge gap poses a major hurdle in robustly projecting changes in the global hydrologic cycle. For this reason, here we review the different processes by which atmospheric CO 2 concentration affects plant transpiration, the several uncertainties related to the complex physiological and radiative processes involved, and the knowledge gaps which need to be filled in order to improve predictions of plant transpiration. Additionally, although there is a high degree of certainty that rising CO 2 will impact plant transpiration, the exact nature of this impact remains unclear due to complex interactions between CO 2 and climate, and key aspects of plant morphology and physiology. The interplay between these factors has substantial consequences not only for future climate and global vegetation, but also for water availability needed for sustaining the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Future changes in global plant transpiration in response to enhanced CO 2 are expected to be driven by water availability, atmospheric evaporative demand, plant physiological processes, emergent plant disturbances related to increasing temperatures, and the modification of plant physiology and coverage. Considering the universal sensitivity of natural and agricultural systems to terrestrial water availability we argue that reliable future projections of transpiration is an issue of the highest priority, which can only be achieved by integrating monitoring and modeling efforts to improve the representation of CO 2 effects on plant transpiration in the next generation of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mycorrhizal Distributions Impact Global Patterns of Carbon and Nutrient Cycling

Most tree species predominantly associate with a single type of mycorrhizal fungi, which can differentially affect plant nutrient acquisition and biogeochemical cycling. Uncertainties in mycorrhizal distributions are non-trivial, and current estimates disagree in up to 50% over 40% of the land area, including tropical forests. Remote sensing capabilities for mycorrhizal detection show promise for refining these estimates further. Here, we address for the first time the impact of mycorrhizal distributions on global carbon and nutrient cycling. Using the state-of-the-art carbon-nitrogen economics within the Community Land Model version 5, we found Net Primary Productivity (NPP) increased throughout the 21st century by 20%; however, as soil nitrogen has progressively become limiting, the costs to NPP for nitrogen acquisition—that is, to mycorrhizae—have increased at a faster rate by 60%. This suggests that nutrient acquisition will increasingly demand a higher portion of assimilated carbon to support the same productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗

Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States: Results From and Methods Behind Bottom-Up Simulations of County-Specific Household Electric Vehicle Charging Load (Hourly 8760) Profiles Projected Through 2050 for Differentiated Household and Vehicle Types

This report documents enhancements made to the TEMPO (Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options TM ) model to project spatially, demographically, and temporally resolved national-scale EV charging load profiles and describes three scenarios and corresponding datasets created for the NREL demand-side grid (dsgrid) project in support of bulk power systems modeling. In brief, TEMPO was enhanced to disaggregate national and annual energy demand projections into household and county-level projections of passenger electric vehicle (EV) hourly charging load profiles (8760 profiles), accounting for consumer, travel, and temperature variations that impact EV energy demand. In alignment with NREL's forward-looking grid modeling, three scenarios for EV adoption covering 2020-2050 were created-- Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case, Electrification Futures Study (EFS) High Electrification, and All EV Sales by 2035 --and associated datasets have been included in the dsgrid platform for public use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Computational Math Problems for a Clean Energy Future

Cutting edge computational mathematics are ubiquitous in renewable energy research. Problems in resilient and reliable electric grid operations, infrastructure planning, wind farm yaw control, and more demand sophisticated and scalable computational tools that enable the transition of renewable energy technologies from proof of concept to deployment into our energy system. The mission of the Computational Science Center at NREL is to lead the lab's efforts to solve energy challenges using high-performance computing (HPC), computational science, applied mathematics, scientific data management, visualization, and informatics. In this poster, we provide a short overview of three areas of computational mathematics research at NREL: wind power scenario generation for stochastic grid operations and infrastructure planning, improved rational function approximations for electromagnetic transients codes, and wind farm yaw control using a combination of the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and reinforcement learning (RL). Increasing penetrations of renewable energy into power grids motivate the investigation of new approaches to characterizing uncertainty for five-minute economic dispatch problems. Similarly, as the penetration of distributed energy resources on power grids increases, it becomes important to revisit our methods of modelling transient phenomena, i.e. electromagnetic transients programs. Finally, the combination of ADMM and RL for wind farm yaw control presented here can potentially increase the efficiency of the deployed distributed controllers by orders of magnitude.

ADMM↗

Supply analysis of preferential market incentive for energy crops

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. Here, we recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Conceptual Design of a Water Tank Critical Facility for SPARC

Critical experiments, sometimes referred to zero-power reactors, are crucial tools in developing and validating nuclear physics predictions and thus an indispensable capability to ensure criticality safety during all parts of the nuclear fuel cycle and in reducing uncertainties in reactor physics predictions toward optimizing nuclear energy production. The System Physics Advanced Reactor Facility (SPARC) project was recently initiated to enable large-scale criticality experiments using a horizontal split table machine well suited toward solid core materials systems (fuel, moderator, reflector). The facility selected for this mission was a former pool-type research reactor building and thus also well suited toward a second critical experiment capability able to house full-size light-water reactor (LWR) fuel bundles. A conceptual design study was undertaken to review past water tank critical experiments used for LWR physics experiments and to develop an early engineering design for a new critical assembly tank (CAT). The work described here shows that a relatively simple CAT concept can be constructed and deployed in the SPARC facility to meet the urgent demands for new critical experiments on advanced LWR fuel bundles designs. The SPARC facility layout is conducive to the receipt and upending of LWR fuel bundles using existing containers and equipment from the LWR industry. The facility’s overhead crane can then be used to handle fuel bundles and place them in a vertical storage rack or in the CAT for critical experiments, both of which fit within the building’s “open basement” alongside other equipment planned for SPARC and the horizontal split table. A slightly lower area in the basement can serve as a large drain tank so that fail-safe valves drain the CAT reactor tank for safe shutdown. Neutronic configurations were determined where a 3 × 3 array of fuel bundles can be surrounded by full-length “loose rods” to adjust reactivity so that critical is achieved when the bundles are fully submerged. Viable configurations were determined for both pressurized- and boiling-water-reactor-type fuel bundles. This design concept was used to develop an early planning basis for establishing the CAT capability alongside the otherwise planned SPARC project in order to help streamline the process. Recent presidential executive orders have highlighted the need to achieve power uprates in LWR plants and the CAT capability will be a crucial element of these initiatives. Based on the work described herein, it is recommended that an earnest and timely project begin in order to establish this urgently needed capability.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Opportunities for installed combined heat and power (CHP) to increase grid flexibility in the U.S.

Increasing use of renewable energy requires sufficient grid flexibility to address uncertainty and variability in electricity generation. Previous studies suggest that combined heat and power (CHP) systems may support grid flexibility but they do not consider operating hours. In this paper, we used CHP operating data and determined annual and monthly availability of the installed CHP capacity from various sectors (e.g., utility, independent power producer, commercial, and industrial) in all seven U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs). Also, we estimated hourly CHP availability installed in five facility types (i.e., hospitals, universities, hotels, offices, and manufacturing) in the state of New York. The results show that regardless of ISO/RTO, sector, or season, more than 40% of the installed CHP capacity (0.7–8.7 GW) was not fully utilized in 2019; the results are similar for 2018. This available CHP capacity accounted for up to 9% of the ISO/RTO's peak electric demand, which may yield cost savings up to $16 billion by avoiding installation costs of new natural gas combustion or combined-cycle turbines. To exploit the available CHP capacity to enhance grid flexibility, we recommend different policy implications including flexible contract lengths between CHP owners and grid operators, improved market designs, and simplified interconnection standards.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗