SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “demand modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2006

Data Model Management for Space Information Systems

The Reference Architecture for Space Information Management (RASIM) suggests the separation of the data model from software components to promote the development of flexible information management systems. RASIM allows the data model to evolve independently from the software components and results in a robust implementation that remains viable as the domain changes. However, the development and management of data models within RASIM are difficult and time consuming tasks involving the choice of a notation, the capture of the model, its validation for consistency, and the export of the model for implementation. Current limitations to this approach include the lack of ability to capture comprehensive domain knowledge, the loss of significant modeling information during implementation, the lack of model visualization and documentation capabilities, and exports being limited to one or two schema types. The advent of the Semantic Web and its demand for sophisticated data models has addressed this situation by providing a new level of data model management in the form of ontology tools. In this paper we describe the use of a representative ontology tool to capture and manage a data model for a space information system. The resulting ontology is implementation independent. Novel on-line visualization and documentation capabilities are available automatically, and the ability to export to various schemas can be added through tool plug-ins. In addition, the ingestion of data instances into the ontology allows validation of the ontology and results in a domain knowledge base. Semantic browsers are easily configured for the knowledge base. For example the export of the knowledge base to RDF/XML and RDFS/XML and the use of open source metadata browsers provide ready-made user interfaces that support both text- and facet-based search. This paper will present the Planetary Data System (PDS) data model as a use case and describe the import of the data model into an ontology tool. We will also describe the current effort to provide interoperability with the European Space Agency (ESA)/Planetary Science Archive (PSA) which is critically dependent on a common data model.

RDF↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aviary: An Open-Source Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool for Modeling Aircraft With Analytic Gradients

Demands on aircraft design methods in recent years have begun to require increasingly higher amounts of coupling between disciplines and have also begun to require optimization in order to satisfy competing objectives involving large numbers of parameters that define unconventional configurations. These expanding requirements have amplified a need for new and improved aircraft design, analysis, and optimization codes that are capable of performing coupled design exploiting analytic gradients where possible. Aviary is a multidisciplinary design optimization and analysis framework which allows for tightly coupled simultaneous aircraft and subsystem design using analytic gradients. Aviary has employed the methods of two legacy aircraft analysis tools to provide native analytically differentiated calculations for five different disciplines, and it also has the ability to couple in external discipline analysis tools, whether or not those tools can provide analytic gradients. Preliminary examples and modeling efforts have shown Aviary’s ability to effectively model novel concepts and explore large and non-intuitive design spaces. Finally, a multi-level user interface in Aviary creates an easy entry point for users with any level of multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization experience.

multidisciplinary↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Strategies for Laboratories Through Energy Modeling

Laboratories are often overlooked in demand flexibility research due to constraints on their operations as mission critical facilities, despite the major role they play in an organization's emissions. Laboratories consume 3-4 times more energy than a typical office building and are commonly the largest energy users on any campus. Consequently, most laboratories in the United States are significant contributors to their organization's carbon footprint if their energy needs are met through the combustion of fossil fuels. As part of the initiative to decarbonize laboratories, this report documents an analysis on specifically grid-interactive efficient building (GEB) opportunities for reducing energy costs and emissions associated with laboratory operations. The goal of this initiative was to provide a case study and guidance on how to use OpenStudio and REopt as modeling tools for GEB technologies and strategies in laboratory environments across different climate zones in the United States. The analysis found that efficiency-based GEB strategies had the most significant impact on laboratory operations, while load-shedding and load-shifting GEB strategies produced smaller results. The culmination of these approaches applied across all five climate zones generated on average: 1) 28% energy cost savings and 30% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, and 2) 4% enhanced energy cost savings under a time-of-use (TOU) pricing schedule compared to traditional pricing schemes. Grid-interactive efficiency building measures were found to produce the greatest energy savings in both electricity and natural gas, particularly in regions with high electrical loads, such as warm climates for cooling. Laboratories that had high levels of natural gas consumption, meanwhile, experienced the greatest emission reductions. The report concludes with an analysis on the opportunities for flexible loads in lab spaces and how small-scale measures in addition to opaque pricing structures for peak demand could become barriers to demand flexibility planning. The report also explores how electrifying laboratory buildings with heat pumps could reduce energy costs and GHG emissions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Analysis of Fuel Effects on Advanced Compression Ignition Using a Cooperative Fuel Research Engine Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

Growing environmental concerns and demand for a better fuel economy are driving forces that motivate the research for more advanced engines. Multi-mode combustion strategies have gained attention for their potential to provide high thermal efficiency and low emissions for light-duty applications. These strategies target optimizing the engine performance by correlating different combustion modes to load operating conditions. The extension from boosted spark ignition (SI) mode at high loads to advanced compression ignition (ACI) mode at low loads can be achieved by increasing the compression ratio and utilizing intake air heating. Further, in order to enable an accurate control of intake charge condition for ACI mode and rapid mode-switches, it is essential to gain fundamental insights into the autoignition process. Within the scope of ACI, homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) mode is of significant interest. It is known for its potential benefits, operation at low fuel consumption, low NOx, and particulate matter (PM) emissions. In the present work, a virtual Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine model is used to analyze fuel effects on ACI combustion. In particular, the effect of fuel octane sensitivity (S) (at constant Research Octane Number (RON)) on autoignition propensity is assessed under beyond-RON (BRON) and beyond-MON (BMON) ACI conditions. The three-dimensional CFR engine computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model employs a finite-rate chemistry approach with a multi-zone binning strategy to capture autoignition. Two binary blends with Research Octane Number (RON) of 90 are chosen for this study: primary reference fuel (PRF) with S = 0 and toluene–heptane (TH) blend with S = 10.8, representing paraffinic and aromatic gasoline surrogates. Reduced mechanisms for these blends are generated from a detailed gasoline surrogate kinetic mechanism. Simulation results with the reduced mechanisms are validated against experimental data from an in-house CFR engine, with respect to in-cylinder pressure, heat release rate, and combustion phasing. Thereafter, the sensitivity of combustion behavior to ACI operating condition (BRON versus BMON), air-fuel ratio (λ = 2 and 3), and engine speed (600 and 900 rpm) is analyzed for both fuels. It is shown that the sensitivity of a fuel’s autoignition characteristics to λ and engine speed significantly differs at BRON and BMON conditions. Moreover, this sensitivity is found to vary among fuels, despite the same RON. It is also observed that the presence of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) under BRON condition leads to more sequential autoignition and longer combustion duration than BMON condition. Finally, the study indicates that the octane index (OI) fails to capture the trend in the variation of autoignition propensity with S under the BMON condition.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of electrode rinse solutions on the electrodialysis of concentrated salts

The data presented indicate that modest attention to the chemistry of the electrode rinse solution can yield as much as 56% improvement in process efficiency. When operating electrodialysis (ED) with salt concentrations greater than 10,000 mg/l (as NaCl) the amperage can be relatively high even at low voltages. To maximize the overall rate of ion transport from diluate to concentrate, there is a need to minimize resistances in the electrode cells since these can represent as much as 30% of the total resistances in the entire process and in this particular ED unit, represented resistance roughly equivalent to that within the membrane stack. This work describes the performance of a 10-cell pair, 200 cm 2 (0.02 m 2 ) per membrane, pilot ED unit operated in batch mode at 5 V potential. The feedstock to the stack was varied from 0.5% to 6% NaCl. Results from Volt-amp profiles (2.0–15 V) were used as the rationale for choosing the preferred electrode rinse solution, 90 g/l (kg/m 3 ) disodium sulfate at pH 12.5. The recommended solution of 30 g/l (kg/m 3 ) disodium sulfate at neutral pH was tested against stronger solutions (60, 90, and 120 g/l (kg/m 3 ) disodium sulfate) at neutral pH and with 1 g/l (kg/m 3 ) sodium hydroxide added to yield solutions at pH 12.5. There were stark differences in the performance of the ED unit between the solutions at pH 7 and those at pH 12.5. The slopes of the Volt-amp profiles improved indicating less resistance to ion flow at pH 12.5. Most of the difference can be attributed to the greater conductivity of sodium hydroxide compared to disodium sulfate, where even a modest addition of 1 g/l (kg/m 3 ) sodium hydroxide increased the conductivity of the solution between 8 and 20% depending on the concentration of disodium sulfate. Most notably, the initiation voltage was 2.39 ± 0.08 V with solutions at pH 7 and 1.99 V ± 0.04 V when the rinse solutions were around pH 12.5, a difference of around 0.42 V. Since the full batch runs were performed at 5.0 V, this 0.42 V differential represented a loss of 8% in process efficiency. A series of tests showed a shift in initiation voltage occurred between pH 11.5 and 12.5. Nernst equations for water electrolysis are coupled with a simple flux model that estimates the concentration of hydroxide and hydronium ions at the electrode surfaces. This model indicates that the potential demanded by the electrodes is directly linked to the current. Furthermore, there is a steep drop in the potential demanded by the anode when there is sufficient hydroxide available to generate oxygen from hydroxide as opposed to generation from water. The voltage demand is minimal at pH 12.5 and reflective of the reference standard voltage (just over 1.23 V predicted at 0.1 amps). However, the flux model predicts that the voltage demanded by the electrodes at pH 7 is 1.61 V at 0.1 amps (the lowest amperage measurable with the power pack). In conclusion, comparing this result to the reference standard (E 0 = -1.23 V) yields a satisfactory explanation for the observed difference below reference standard of 0.42 V.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of an algae-based CELSS. I - Model development

A steady state chemical model and computer program have been developed for a life support system and applied to trade-off studies. The model is based on human demand for food and oxygen determined from crew metabolic needs. The model includes modules for water recycle, waste treatment, CO2 removal and treatment, and food production. The computer program calculates rates of use and material balance for food, O2, the recycle of human waste and trash, H2O, N2, and food production/supply. A simple noniterative solution for the model has been developed using the steady state rate equations for the chemical reactions. The model and program have been used in system sizing and subsystem trade-off studies of a partially closed life support system.

Holtzapple, Mark T.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of an algae-based CELSS. Part 1: model development

A steady state chemical model and computer program have been developed for a life support system and applied to trade-off studies. The model is based on human demand for food and oxygen determined from crew metabolic needs. The model includes modules for water recycle, waste treatment, CO2 removal and treatment, and food production. The computer program calculates rates of use and material balance for food. O2, the recycle of human waste and trash, H2O, N2, and food production supply. A simple non-iterative solution for the model has been developed using the steady state rate equations for the chemical reactions. The model and program have been used in system sizing and subsystem trade-off studies of a partially closed life support system.

Models, Chemical↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing district energy systems under uncertainty: Insights from a case study from Washington D.C., USA

This study investigates solutions for delivering affordable heating and cooling to a brownfield site, focusing on a case study in Washington, DC. Moving towards more diverse and resilient energy systems, we identify the optimal portfolio for a district energy system with diverse energy sources to meet the area’s energy demands. Our methodological approach integrates two detailed models: one calculating building-level energy demand and the other optimizing district energy technology choices based on their demand profiles, accounting for uncertainties in energy prices, policies, and other parameters. The results provide an economic comparison of district and individual supply options at the building level, emphasizing the flexibility district systems can offer to the electricity sector. District energy systems demonstrate cost-stabilization benefits amidst volatile energy prices and external uncertainties. For heating, district systems yield significant cost savings compared to individual solutions, driven by fuel flexibility and the use of local renewable energy sources. For cooling, district systems also show advantages, though individual systems may remain more cost-effective for smaller buildings. Additionally, district systems exhibit considerable flexibility on the heating side, as evidenced by variations in electricity consumption. We recommend future research to explore the relationship between the economics of district energy systems, particularly at the building level, and their flexibility potential for the electricity sector across diverse geographic contexts to reduce overall grid costs and promote grid reliability. This includes areas with distinct zoning laws, municipal priorities, utility structures, and funding mechanisms, such as the United States, and regions like Europe with pronounced electricity price volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A semiparametric latent factor model for large scale temporal data with heteroscedasticity

Large scale temporal data have flourished in a vast array of applications, and their sophisticated structures, especially the heteroscedasticity among subjects with inter- and intra-temporal dependence, have fueled a great demand for new statistical models. In this paper, with covariate information, we consider a flexible model for large scale temporal data with subject-specific heteroscedasticity. Formally, the model employs latent semiparametric factors to simultaneously account for the subject-specific heteroscedasticity and the contemporaneous and/or serial correlations. The subject-specific heteroscedasticity is modeled as the product of the unobserved factor process and subject’s covariate effect, which is further characterized via additive models. For estimation, we propose a two-step procedure. First, the latent factor process and nonparametric loading are recovered through projection-based methods, and following, we estimate the regression components by approaches motivated from the generalized least squares. By scrupulously examining the non-asymptotic rates for recovering the factor process and its loading, we show the consistency and efficiency of estimated regression coefficients in the absence of prior knowledge of latent factor process and subject’s covariate effect. Here, the statistical guarantees remain valid even for finite time points that makes our method particularly appealing when the subjects significantly outnumber the observation time points. Using comprehensive simulations, we demonstrate the finite sample performance of our method, which corroborates the theoretical findings. Finally, we apply our method to a data set of air quality and energy consumption collected at 129 monitoring sites in the United States in 2015.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the WRF-Solar Model Performance Using Satellite-Derived Irradiance from the National Solar Radiation Database

Abstract WRF-Solar is a numerical weather prediction model specifically designed to meet the increasing demand for accurate solar irradiance forecasting. The model provides flexibility in the representation of the aerosol–cloud–radiation processes. This flexibility can be argued to make it more difficult to improve the model’s performance because of the necessity of inspecting different configurations. To alleviate this situation, WRF-Solar has a reference configuration to use as a benchmark in sensitivity experiments. However, the scarcity of high-quality ground observations is a handicap to accurately quantify the model performance. An alternative to ground observations are satellite irradiance retrievals. Herein we analyze the adequacy of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to validate the WRF-Solar performance using high-quality global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Based on the sufficient performance of NSRDB, we further analyze the WRF-Solar forecast errors across the CONUS, the growth of the forecasting errors as a function of the lead time, and sensitivities to the grid spacing and the representation of the radiative effects of unresolved clouds. Our results based on WRF-Solar forecasts spanning 2018 reveal a 7% median degradation of the mean absolute error (MAE) from the first to the second daytime period. Reducing the grid spacing from 9 to 3 km leads to a 4% improvement in the MAE, whereas activating the radiative effects of unresolved clouds is desirable over most of the CONUS even at 3 km of grid spacing. A systematic overestimation of the GHI is found. These results illustrate the potential of GHI retrievals to contribute to increasing the WRF-Solar performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Irrigation Requirement Estimation using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling; A Case Study for Oran, Algeria

Human demand for food influences the water cycle through diversion and extraction of fresh water needed to support agriculture. Future population growth and economic development alone will substantially increase water demand and much of it for agricultural uses. For many semi-arid lands, socio-economic shifts are likely to exacerbate changes in climate as a driver of future water supply and demand. For these areas in particular, where the balance between water supply and demand is fragile, variations in regional climate can have potentially predictable effect on agricultural production. Satellite data and biophysically-based models provide a powerful method to quantify the interactions between local climate, plant growth and water resource requirements. In irrigated agricultural lands, satellite observations indicate high vegetation density while the precipitation amount indicates otherwise. This inconsistency between the observed precipitation and the observed canopy leaf density triggers the possibility that the observed high leaf density is due to an alternate source of water, irrigation. We explore an inverse process approach using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), climatological data, and the NASA's Simple Biosphere model, SiB2, to quantitatively assess water demand in a semi-arid agricultural land by constraining the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium (balance between vegetation and prevailing local climate) and nonequilibrium (water added through irrigation) conditions. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. We added water using two distribution methods: The first method adds water on top of the canopy and is a proxy for the traditional spray irrigation. The second method allows water to be applied directly into the soil layer and serves as proxy for drip irrigation. Our approach indicates that over the study site, for the month of July, spray irrigation resulted in an irrigation amount of about 1.4 mm per occurrence with an average frequency of occurrence of 24.6 hours. The simulated total monthly irrigation for July was 34.85 mm. In contrast, the drip irrigation resulted in less frequent irrigation events with an average water requirement about 57% less than that simulated during the spray irrigation case. The efficiency of the drip irrigation method rests on its reduction of the canopy interception loss compared to the spray irrigation method. When compared to a country-wide average estimate of irrigation water use, our numbers are quite low. We would have to revise the reported country level estimates downward to 17% or less

Bounoua, L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Potential Effects of Health Care Policy Decisions on Physician Availability

Many regions in America are experiencing downward trends in the number of practicing physicians and the number of available physician hours, resulting in a worrisome decrease in the availability of health care services. Recent changes in American health care legislation may induce a rapid change in the demand for health care services, which in turn will result in a new supply-demand equilibrium . In this paper we develop a system dynamics model linking physician availability to health care demand and profitability. We use this model to explore scenarios based on different initial conditions and describe possible outcomes for a range of different policy decisions.

Garcia, Christopher↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating the Impacts of Increasing Temperatures and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates with Deep Learning

As urbanization and climate change progress, understanding and addressing urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in the urban core can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy demand for cooling. However, modeling the urban microclimate is an ongoing field of research typically burdened by an imprecise description of the built environment, incomplete observational records, significant computational cost, and a lack of high-resolution estimates of the impacts of increasing temperatures. Here, we present computationally efficient machine learning methods that can improve the accuracy of urban temperature estimates when compared to historical reanalysis data. These models are applied to a neighborhood in Los Angeles, and we compare the energy benefits of heat mitigation strategies to the impacts of climate change. We find that cooling demand is likely to increase substantially through midcentury, but engineered high-albedo surfaces could lessen this increase by more than 50 %. The corresponding increase in winter gas heating offsets the summer cooling benefit in the current climate, but total annual energy use from combined heating and cooling with electric heat pumps benefits from the engineered heat mitigation strategies under both current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Renewable energy analysis in indigenous communities using bottom-up demand prediction

This paper provides a methodology for the holistic analysis of hybrid renewable energy systems in rural communities. Electric demand is an important component for modeling and analysis of renewable energy systems. Typically, electric demand data is not available due to the internal privacy policies of utility providers. Therefore, this study proposes the use of bottom-up approaches for the development of the electric demand profile, considering the general homogeneity of residential and commercial buildings in rural communities. As a test case, this study develops the electric demand profile and investigates the technical and environmental feasibility of a hybrid renewable energy system for the New Town community on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation (FBIR) in North Dakota. This study conducts the hybrid renewable energy system’s analysis by developing scripts in the LK scripting language and integrating System Advisor Model software’s open-source modules for modeling of renewable energy systems. Here, the results for the validation testbed of this study show that hybrid renewable resources have higher ratios of energy used for self-consumption to the total energy generated compared to stand-alone wind and PV farms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗