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DOE OSTI2024

From Silos to Synergy: Identifying a Roadmap for Cross-Sector Research to Accelerate the Clean Energy Transition

The U.S. Department of Energy's blueprints for the transportation, buildings, and electricity sectors call for substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. These plans focus on zero-emission vehicles, investments in transit, energy-efficient buildings, and the widespread adoption and deployment of renewable energy technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage and energy-efficient appliances. However, these sectors are often studied and modeled in isolation, overlooking how household decisions to adopt clean technologies in one sector influence others. This study, led by an interdisciplinary team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), explores opportunities for cross-sector collaboration to drive more effective and equitable decarbonization. Through discussions with 22 NREL researchers across transportation, building, solar, and grid sectors, the study highlights the need for integrated tools and models that capture interactions between these sectors. Key insights include the need for data standardization and interoperability to enable cross-sector analysis and decision-making. Strengthening utility partnerships is also critical to align energy policies with decarbonization goals and manage the increased demand for renewable energy. The study also emphasizes the importance of equity in the clean energy transition, calling for targeted incentives and support to ensure that low-income and underserved communities benefit from clean technologies like electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances. To support these efforts, innovative funding mechanisms must be expanded to facilitate interdisciplinary research, such as city-specific decarbonization plans and federal projects like DOE"s Standard Scenarios. By encouraging collaboration and integrating cross-sector insights, this study aims to provide a roadmap to accelerate the clean energy transition and ensure it is both sustainable and inclusive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Climate is A-Changin': Teaching Civic Competence for a Sustainable Climate

A central aim of social studies curriculum is to prepare young people for making "informed and reasoned decisions for the public good" concerning consequential problems like global climate change. By developing students' "vision of a good society" and exploring what actions and policies move our society in this direction, social studies teachers have an important role in preparing students for a world undergoing enormous environmental change. This article discusses elementary curriculum connections between building students' knowledge and understanding about "their community, nation and world" and global climate change. It also suggests ideas for building civic competency and climate literacy while creating opportunities for students to practice high-value skills like "data collection and analysis, collaboration, decision-making and problem-solving."

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating agricultural trade-offs in the age of sustainable development

Here, a vibrant, resilient and productive agricultural sector is fundamental to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Bringing about such a transformation requires optimizing a range of agronomic, environmental and socioeconomic outcomes from agricultural systems – from crop yields, to biodiversity, to human nutrition. However, these outcomes are not independent of each other – they interact in both positive and negative ways, creating the potential for synergies and trade-offs. Consequently, transforming the agricultural sector for the age of sustainable development requires tracking these interactions, assessing if objectives are being achieved and allowing for adaptive management within the diverse agricultural systems that make up global agriculture. This paper reviews the field of agricultural trade-off analysis, which has emerged to better understand these interactions – from field to farm, region to continent. Taking a “cradle-to-grave” approach, we distill agricultural trade-off analysis into four steps: characterizing the decision setting and identifying the context-specific indicators needed to assess agricultural sustainability, selecting the methods for generating indicator values across different scales, deciding on the means of evaluating and communicating the trade-off options with stakeholders and decision-makers, and improving uptake of trade-off analysis outputs by decision-makers. Given the breadth of the Sustainable Development Goals and the importance of agriculture to many of them, we assess notions of human well-being beyond income or direct health concerns (e.g. related to gender, equality, nutrition), as well as diverse environmental indicators ranging from soil health to biodiversity to climate forcing. Looking forward, areas of future work include integrating the four steps into a single modeling platform and connecting tools across scales and disciplines to facilitate trade-off analysis. Likewise, enhancing the policy relevance of agricultural trade-off analysis requires improving scientist-stakeholder engagement in the research process. Only then can this field proactively address trade-off issues that are integral to sustainably intensifying local and global agriculture – a critical step toward successfully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Retrofit Energy Analysis and Central Thermal modeling (REACT) v1.0

REACT is a website designed to simplify the analysis and decision-making process for retrofitting existing central plant heating and cooling systems with advanced heat pump technologies. The tool evaluates the technical and economic viability of replacing traditional boilers with various options including water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps, which can provide efficient and lower-cost heating and cooling. It allows users to compare current central plant configurations with retrofit scenarios, assessing energy consumption, life-cycle costs, and environmental impact. Retrofitting traditional boiler and chiller systems with water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps can significantly reduce energy consumption and lower lifecycle costs. The REACT provides: User-Friendly Tools: A user friendly web interface for quick, intuitive analysis accessible to non-experts. Advanced Modeling: A Python-powered engine for detailed parametric studies, optimization, and research applications. Comprehensive Analysis: Lifecycle cost evaluation, energy consumption modeling, and environmental impact assessment. Visual Insights: A variety of plots to visualize system performance and design trade-offs. The engine for the website (REACT) bases on several Python libraries, and the website will be hosted on an ETA server.

Kim, Donghun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decision-Making Framework to Evaluate Opportunities for Recovery of Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals in Produced Water Networks

Oil and gas development activities require a significant amount of water. Given the environmental impacts associated with high consumption and subsequent disposal of this water, there is a need for strategies to support effective reuse of, treatment of, and/or resource recovery from this produced water. These streams can contain appreciable concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) and critical minerals (CM) (e.g., Lithium), which are critical for many important applications in electronics, technology, manufacturing, energy, and medicine [1]. Along with REE/CM present in produced water, other waste streams such as fly ash from coal-fired power plants and acid mine discharge present other potential sources for recovery of REE/CM [2-4]. And with increases in demand for REE/CM, the need for recovery from wastewater streams is becoming even more important. There is a need to develop effective decision-making tools to evaluate the economic and environmental potential for REE/CM recovery from produced water networks while supporting the needs of drilling and hydraulic fracturing activities. In this work, we present our progress in developing a decision-making framework to efficiently design and operate produced water networks for REE/CM recovery. Our approach considers REE/CM recovery from produced water streams alongside other potential wastewater sources. The models consider the location and capacity of storage and decentralized treatment processes as well as the design and operation of pipeline and transportation networks to connect different sources and effectively schedule inventories, reuse, and recovery opportunities. We focus on the evaluation of opportunities for REE/CM recovery with treatment constraints on composition and flow. We demonstrate this framework with an illustrative case study that features diverse production sites, storage facilities, transportation, and treatment sites. This proposed framework will be deployed in an open-source software package that is compatible with the PARETO framework to deliver analysis and decision-making tools that allow stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate potential opportunities for REE/CM recovery in produced water networks.

Pulsipher, Joshua↗

DOE OSTI2018

Hydrologic Model Analyses for Decision Support at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Site - 18363

Modeling hydrologic flow and transport in the subsurface presents a number of challenges including large datasets that contain limited information about the properties of the subsurface and models with a large number of parameters characterizing the properties of the subsurface and the ambient hydrologic conditions (e.g., groundwater recharge). This, in turn, leads to substantial uncertainty in predictions about quantities of interest (e.g., the concentration of a contaminant at points of compliance). We present a number of methods and tools that have recently been developed to address these problems. The model calibration tools are capable of assimilating large datasets (for example, on the order of 1,000,000 model calibration targets) into numerical models, calibrating models with a large number of model parameters (on the order of 1,000,000), or both. These tools leverage recently developed methods in numerical linear algebra such as matrix-free methods and randomized matrix sketching. The uncertainty quantification tools are highly-parallel and enable us to robustly quantify the uncertainties in model parameters (and therefore uncertainty in quantities of interest). Having these capabilities in model analysis tools enables more informed decision making related to remediation of groundwater contaminants. The model analyses that we present are related to the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) chromium site. The analyses are performed by MADS (Model Analysis and Decision Support; http://mads.lanl.gov). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2021

Southern Idaho Health & Air Quality: Monitoring Atmospheric Mixing Heights Post-Wildfire Through the Use of NASA Earth Observations

Wildfire smoke has long-lasting impacts on public and environmental health. Currently, agencies that monitor smoke base their decisions on an analysis of how fires burn, the direction the smoke moves from the fire source, and unverified estimates of mixing height. Mixing heights describe the maximum altitude to which a smoke plume rises. Satellite imagery provides more continuous and accurate coverage of mixing heights than current in situ methods. Thus, the team developed a software tool that processes and extracts mixing height observations from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) Vertical Feature Mask granules. The team partnered with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, the Bureau of Land Management’s National Interagency Fire Center, and the National Park Service’s Fire Management Program Center to analyze historic fire events in southern Idaho. To do so, they used Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to verify where a CALIPSO pass intersects thermal anomalies and smoke plumes. The software extracts features of relevance from the hdf file of each CALIPSO transect to locate layers of continuous aerosols. The maximum altitude at which the aerosol ends is recorded as the mixing height, along with a matching latitude and longitude. The satellite-derived values can be used to validate past mixing height predictions and evaluate the accuracy and systematic bias of different estimation methods. These results may allow agencies to make better comparisons and subsequent smoke pollution management, prevention, and public health decisions if the spatial and temporal differences between predictions and observations can be resolved.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dataset for Top Model Decision Tree: Selecting Segmentation Models for Reliable Quantitative Analysis in Low- and Ultralow-Dose CryoEM

Motivation Multiple deep learning model architectures can be used to segment bacterial membranes in cryoEM images. However, an AI-based tool advancement is often presented with only a single segmentation model for broad use, and this single model may show inconsistent results across datasets from different users. Here, we present the Top Model Decision Tree, a model screening framework to screen for the best model to generate bacterial inner and outer membrane masks based on user priorities. We use pre-trained segmentation models from YOLOv11, YOLO26, U-Net, Detectron2 and SAM3 fine-tuned on bacterial inner and outer membranes imaged with cryoEM. Run the Framework This notebook must be opened in Google Colab. Mount Google Drive and run with a GPU-based runtime. Open the notebook and follow steps to git clone in folders and files within this repository. There will be a repeating top_model_decision_tree.ipynb (notebook clone) that will not be used. Save your .png binary mask files and .csv table outputs within your Google Drive or download before closing the notebook. The models and all analysis/training scripts are available at [GitHub: https://github.com/Lynnicia/CryoEM_membranes_top_model_decision_tree and https://github.com/Sireesiru/Semantic-Segmentation-of-bacterial-cell-envelope-using-U-Nets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for low-mass hidden-valley dark showers with non-prompt muon pairs in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for signatures of a dark analog to quantum chromodynamics is performed. The analysis targets long-lived dark mesons that decay into standard-model particles, with a high branching fraction of the dark mesons decaying into muons. The dark mesons are formed by the hadronisation of dark partons, which are produced by a decay of the Higgs boson. The search is performed using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41.6 fb −1 , which was collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2018 using non-prompt muon triggers. The search is based on resonant muon pair signatures. Machine-learning techniques are employed in the analysis, utilising boosted decision trees to discriminate between signal and background. No significant excess is observed above the standard model expectation. Upper limits on the branching fraction of the Higgs boson decaying to dark partons are determined to be as low as 10−4 at 95% confidence level, surpassing and extending the existing limits on models with dark $\tilde{ω}$ mesons for mean proper decay lengths of less than 500 mm and for $\tilde{ω}$ masses down to 0.3 GeV. First limits are set for extended dark-shower models with two dark flavours that contain dark photons, probing their masses down to 0.33 GeV.

Beyond Standard Model↗

DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technolgical, and socioeconomic futures in a regional intergrated-assessment model.

Improving the energy efficiency of the building stock, commercial equipment and household appliances can have a major impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Subnational regions such as U.S. states wish to increase their energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions or adapt to climate change. Evaluating subnational policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change may undercut such policies. Assessing these uncertainties can be a significant modeling and computation burden. As part of this uncertainty assessment, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy using fractional factorial methods can be applied to reveal the important drivers for detailed uncertainty analysis.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2019

Public charging infrastructure for plug-in electric vehicles: What is it worth?

A lack of charging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Public charging infrastructure has tangible and intangible value, such as reducing range anxiety or building confidence in the future of the PEV market. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure can inform analysis of investment decisions and can help predict the impact of charging infrastructure on future PEV sales. Estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) based on stated preference surveys are limited by consumers' lack of familiarity with PEVs. As an alternative, we focus on quantifying the tangible value of public PEV chargers in terms of their ability to displace gasoline use for PHEVs and to enable additional electric (e-) vehicle miles for BEVs, thereby mitigating the limitations of shorter range and longer recharging time. Simulation studies provide data that can be used to quantify e-miles enabled by public chargers and the value of additional e-miles can be inferred from econometric estimates of WTP for increased vehicle range. Functions are synthesized that estimate the WTP for public charging infrastructure by plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, conditional on vehicle range, annual vehicle travel, pre-existing charging infrastructure, energy prices, vehicle efficiency, and household income. A case study based on California's public charging network in 2017 indicates that, to the purchaser of a new BEV with a 100-mile range and home recharging, existing public fast chargers are worth about $1500 for intraregional travel, and fast chargers along intercity routes are valued at over $6500.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Technical properties of biomass and solid recovered fuel (SRF) co-fired with coal: Impact on multi-dimensional resource recovery value

The power plant sector is adopting the co-firing of biomass and solid recovered fuel (SRF) with coal in an effort to reduce its environmental impact and costs. Whereas this intervention contributes to reducing carbon emissions and those of other pollutants related with the burning of fossil fuel, it may also result in hidden impacts that are often overlooked. When co-firing, the physical and chemical properties of the mixed fuels and the subsequent technical implications on the process performance and by-products are significant. Interconnections between multiple values nested within four domains of value, i.e. environmental, economic, technical and social, mean that changes in the one domain (in the co-firing case, the technical one) can have considerable implications in the other domains as well. In this study, using a systematic and flexible approach to conceptualising multi-dimensional aspects associated with the co-firing of biomass and SRF with coal, we unveil examples of such interconnections and implications on overall value delivered through the use and recovery of waste resources. Such an analysis could underpin the selection of useful metrics (quantitative or semi-quantitative descriptors) for enabling a systemic multi-dimensional value assessment, and value’s distribution amongst interconnected parts of resource recovery systems; key in enabling sound analysis and decision-making.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Uniform Practice for Conceptualizing and Communicating Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus Studies

There is growing interest in nexus research: energy‐water, energy‐water‐land, and more recently food‐energy‐water. Motivating this movement is the recognition that the dynamics and feedbacks that constitute these nexuses have been overlooked in the past but are critical to the planning and management of these interacting elements. Formal reviews have identified gaps in current studies. In this commentary, we highlight additional oversights that are hindering integration of findings in nexus studies, notably usage of imprecise terminology to describe analyses, a failure to close the loop by linking production with corresponding waste streams, and exclusion of dynamics linking diverse constituent elements. Equally lacking from current nexus studies is a consistent protocol for communicating the conceptual basis of our studies. To fill this gap, we draw on diverse perspectives and fields to propose a comprehensive and systematic framework that can guide the model conceptualization phase of nexus studies. We also present a standardized documentation practice (similar to one utilized by the agent‐based modeling community) to facilitate communication of nexus studies. These initiatives can improve our ability to account for and communicate the nuanced, food‐energy‐water nexus interactions in a consistent manner, which is necessary to better inform risk analysis and avoid decisions with unintended consequences and hidden costs to society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Blinding multiprobe cosmological experiments

ABSTRACT The goal of blinding is to hide an experiment’s critical results – here the inferred cosmological parameters – until all decisions affecting its analysis have been finalized. This is especially important in the current era of precision cosmology, when the results of any new experiment are closely scrutinized for consistency or tension with previous results. In analyses that combine multiple observational probes, like the combination of galaxy clustering and weak lensing in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), it is challenging to blind the results while retaining the ability to check for (in)consistency between different parts of the data. We propose a simple new blinding transformation, which works by modifying the summary statistics that are input to parameter estimation, such as two-point correlation functions. The transformation shifts the measured statistics to new values that are consistent with (blindly) shifted cosmological parameters while preserving internal (in)consistency. We apply the blinding transformation to simulated data for the projected DES Year 3 galaxy clustering and weak lensing analysis, demonstrating that practical blinding is achieved without significant perturbation of internal-consistency checks, as measured here by degradation of the χ2 between the data and best-fitting model. Our blinding method’s performance is expected to improve as experiments evolve to higher precision and accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

An Open Source Modeling Framework for Interdependent Energy-Transportation-Communication Infrastructure in Smart and Connected Communities

Infrastructure in future smart and connected communities is envisioned as an aggregate of public services, including energy, transportation, and communication systems, all intertwined with each other. The intrinsic interdependency among these systems may exert the underlying influence on both design and operation of the heterogeneous infrastructures. Yet, few prior studies have tapped into the interdependency among these systems in order to quantify their potential impacts during standard operation. In response to this, this paper proposes an open-source, flexible, integrated modeling framework suitable for designing coupled energy, transportation, and communication systems and for assessing the impact of their interdependencies. First, a novel multi-level, multi-layer, multi-agent approach is proposed to enable flexible modeling of the interconnected systems. Then, for the framework's proof of concept, preliminary component and system-level models for different systems are designed and implemented using Modelica, an equation-based object-oriented modeling language. Finally, three case studies of gradually increasing complexity are presented (energy, energy + transportation, and energy + transportation + communication) to evaluate the interdependencies among the three systems. Quantitative analyses show that the deviation of the average velocity on the road can be 10.5% and the deviation of the power drawn from the grid can be 7% with or without considering the transportation and communication system at the peak commute time, indicating the presence of notable interdependencies. The proposed modeling framework also has the potential to be further extended for various modeling purposes and use cases, such as dynamic modeling and optimization, resilience analysis, and integrated decision making in future connected communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving I/O-aware Workflow Scheduling via Data Flow Characterization and trade-off Analysis

The scientific computing paradigm has transitioned from compute-intensive to I/O-intensive and memory-intensive in the past decade, especially when data-driven science has become common practice. Numerous empirical I/O-aware scheduling optimizations have been developed by incorporating I/O capacity and bandwidth as constraints into scheduling. Unfortunately, there is a lack of data flow (I/O) characterization tool and an understanding of trade-offs between concurrency, locality, and I/O bandwidth. To bridge the gap, this work 1) presents a set of descriptors to characterize, organize, and visualize I/O profiles, including flow size, I/O bandwidth, and operation count, which group data flows by I/O types, tasks, and files; 2) proposes an I/O Roofline model-based trade-off analysis to find the optimal trade-off between flow operational intensity, concurrency, and flow performance. The I/O descriptors generate useful insights into complicated I/O behaviors, suggesting distinct concurrency, storage, and scheduling to be used by types, tasks, and files. The proposed trade-off analysis guides scheduling decisions that generate resource assignment with the best flow parallelism. We evaluate our I/O-aware scheduling methodology on a highly I/O-intensive workflow–1000 Genomes. The experimental results demonstrate speedups of up to 2.4× compared to the state-of-the- art methods.

Guo, Luanzheng [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-229: Quantitative Assessment for Timely Adaptive Re-Planning Using Weekly Dose Monitoring for Head and Neck Cancer

Purpose: For patients with head and neck (HN) cancer, mid-course adaptive radiation therapy (ART) is a common practice in our institution to accommodate anatomic changes. The aim of the study is to evaluate whether dose re-calculation on weekly verification images can provide quantitative assessment for timely adaptive re-planning with daily image-guided intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods: We retrospectively selected sixty daily verification images acquired on CT-on-rail/CBCT from ten HN patients. These image sets were typically a week apart. Among these patients, six patients received a mid-course ART. Contours of the tumors and organ-at-risks (OARs) were manually delineated by a physician on each verification CT. After placing the treatment iso-center on the verification CTs according to the recorded clinical shifts, daily dose was re-calculated with the same beam configuration as the original plan. For the purpose of this study, electron densities for both verification CTs and planning CTs were set to 1.0 g/cm3. Results: Two patients had D99 of the CTV < 97% of the planned dose for more than three fractions due to remarkable tumor volume shrinkages. D-max of the spinal cord exceeded a tolerance of 45 Gy for four fractions in additional two patients. D-mean of the parotid increased within 25% of the planned value. D-max of the brainstem and D-mean of the oral cavity did not show significant variation. If the re-planning criteria included D99 of the CTV < 97% of the planned dose and D-max of the spinal cord > 45 Gy, two out ten patients required ART at week 2 and two patients required ART at week 3, respectively. Conclusion: Weekly dose monitoring with re-calculation on verification images can provide quantitative dose guidance for timely adaptive re-planning. Future work will include accumulative dose analysis for the decision of adaptive re-planning. The study is supported in part by Siemens Medical Solutions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗