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NASA NTRS2013

Data Mining for Understanding and Impriving Decision-Making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions. The work reported in this paper is focused on ground delay programs. Data mining algorithms have the potential to develop associations between weather patterns and the corresponding ground delay program responses. If successful, they can be used to improve and standardize TFM decision resulting in better predictability of traffic flows on days with reliable weather forecasts. The approach here seeks to develop a set of data mining and machine learning models and apply them to historical archives of weather observations and forecasts and TFM initiatives to determine the extent to which the theory can predict and explain the observed traffic flow behaviors.

data mining↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach for Defining IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using autonomous vehicles. The focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is to overcome AAM’s safety assurance challenges. The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system designs. This paper describes an approach for defining SFCs based on technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in voluntary safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach would identify potential SFCs that further expand the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M) functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS. Safety implications that will result from integration of AAM in the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) were addressed in National Academies committees reports on AAM and IASMS. Development of a ConOps for IASMS was a top recommendation and can be represented as a reframing of safety assurance that builds on real-time alerting such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, and adds the more encompassing in-time temporal parameter in recognition of the different timelines for collecting and assessing safety data for risk mitigations. For example, mining for safety trends from data sources such as the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing system occurs over a longer time period. Research on AAM operations poses that SFCs can be designed to monitor the safety margin appropriate for AAM including with regards to the distance between current flight parameters and nominal ideal conditions. These in-time comparisons will become more complex as the density of operations increases at least in certain areas and can include planned and actual 4D trajectory, and in-time comparisons having implications on conflict modeling and prediction including expected and actual departure time, fix/waypoint crossing times, and arrival time. These comparisons would be integrated as part of SFCs that redefine and inform new safety margin. An increased safety margin improves management of operational risks while reducing the potential for anomalies. An increased safety margin also has implications for operator confidence in the certainty of its operations and trust in automation. Technology trends in research could be used to refine existing SFCs and define needs for additional SFCs that provide safety improvements to the design and operation of vehicles, airspace design, and operator performance requirements. NASA is developing innovative approaches to safeguard against major accidents and incidents that have occurred in the NAS and those anticipated with the inclusion of envisioned AAM operations. The innovations use operational performance data to monitor, detect, and predict flight variations exceeding safe nominal patterns, such as would be caused by navigational error, severe weather complications, or hijacking of UAS controls. These innovative approaches have high potential to prevent accidents and incidents in the new AAM era. It is anticipated that elements of the innovations will evolve into SFCs for the IASMS. Voluntary safety reports can be monitored to identify anomalies related to design or operational performance risks. Reports could be periodically monitored and assessed for specific topics. Reports might serve as weak signals or precursors indicative of emergent risk such as when combined with other safety information. The architecture could include SFCs that are based on voluntary safety reports recognizing the periodic temporal nature of data analysis. As previously mentioned, aviation accidents with their causal and contributing precursors can inform the need for SFCs in the IASMS. Accidents and incidents at San Francisco International Airport such as Asiana 214 and Air Canada 759 illustrate how combinations of different factors lead to increased risk. These types of precursors and different factors have implications on the types of SFCs that could be needed to monitor and manage different sources and types of design and operational risk. Continuing to assure the safety of AAM as designs and operations gain in complexity can be accompanied by defining SFCs that also increase in complexity. These SFCs can leverage information from findings and recommendations synthesized across on-going research, voluntary safety reports, and accident and incident reports. These SFCs can serve to refine accuracy of algorithms and resolve limitations with current practices. The IASMS architecture represents the framework for the SFCs and their critical role in safety assurance.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optical and Laser-based Measurements for NASA’s Artemis Program

NASA and their partners are on the cusp of embarking on a series of space missions to the moon and beyond, collectively known as the Artemis Program. The Artemis I mission is scheduled for launch in late November 2022. This talk briefly summarizes the upcoming Artemis missions and describes laser and optical measurement technique development and application to ground and flight tests related to, or inspired by, the Artemis program. In particular, development and application of three different measurement techniques (planar laser-induced fluorescence [PLIF], femtosecond laser electronic excitation and tagging [FLEET] and photogrammetry) are described. These techniques have been applied to study vehicle launch, lunar landing, and earth entry. Such optical and laser-based instrumentation can provide unique qualitative and quantitative information to inform the underlying physics of space flight while also providing benchmark data for validating ever advancing predictive codes.

Artemis Program↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optical and Laser-based Measurements for NASA’s Artemis Program

NASA and their partners have embarked on a series of space missions to the moon and beyond, collectively known as the Artemis Program. The Artemis I mission occurred in November 2022. This talk briefly summarizes the upcoming Artemis missions and describes laser and optical measurement technique development and application to ground and flight tests related to, or inspired by, the Artemis program. In particular, development and application of three different measurement techniques (planar laser-induced fluorescence [PLIF], femtosecond laser electronic excitation and tagging [FLEET] and photogrammetry) are described. These techniques have been applied to study vehicle launch, lunar landing, and earth entry. Such optical and laser-based instrumentation can provide unique qualitative and quantitative information to inform the underlying physics of space flight while also providing benchmark data for validating ever advancing predictive codes.

Artemis Program↗

NASA NTRS1984

Regional scale simulation of atmospheric structure using VAS data

Investigations with both Subsynoptic Scale Model (SSM) and Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) are directed at model static initializations using Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) derived temperatures and moistures and also satellite derived winds. The general approach for each day's case study is similar. A 12-hour control forecast (no satellite data) is made 12Z-OZ, using a radiosonde analysis at 12Z as the initial field. For the satellite data experiments, reanalyses are performed at intermediate times, using VAS soundings or VAS soundings in combination with satellite winds. Forecasts are subsequently made from the reanalysis time(s) to the same validation hour (OZ) as the control forecasts. Comparisons are then made between the control forecast and satellite experiments.

Disk, G.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Flame Spread Across Liquids

The principal goal of our recent research on flame spread across liquid pools is the detailed identification of the mechanisms that control the rate and nature of flame spread when the liquid pool is initially at an isothermal bulk temperature that is below the fuel's flash point temperature. In our project, we specialize the subject to highlight the roles of buoyancy-related processes regarding the mechanisms of flame spread, an area of research cited recently by Linan and Williams as one that needs further attention and which microgravity (micro-g) experiments could help to resolve. Toward resolving the effects of buoyancy on this flame spread problem, comparisons - between 1-g and micro-g experimental observations, and between model predictions and experimental data at each of these gravitational levels - are extensively utilized. The present experimental and computational foundation is presented to support identification of the mechanisms that control flame spread in the pulsating flame spread regime for which long-duration, micro-g flame spread experiments have been conducted aboard a sounding rocket.

Ross, Howard D.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Flight evaluation of the transonic stability and control characteristics of an airplane incorporating a supercritical wing

A TF-8A airplane was equipped with a transport type supercritical wing and fuselage fairings to evaluate predicted performance improvements for cruise at transonic speeds. A comparison of aerodynamic derivatives extracted from flight and wind tunnel data showed that static longitudinal stability, effective dihedral, and aileron effectiveness, were higher than predicted. The static directional stability derivative was slower than predicted. The airplane's handling qualities were acceptable with the stability augmentation system on. The unaugmented airplane exhibited some adverse lateral directional characteristics that involved low Dutch roll damping and low roll control power at high angles of attack and roll control power that was greater than satisfactory for transport aircraft at cruise conditions. Longitudinally, the aircraft exhibited a mild pitchup tendency. Leading edge vortex generators delayed the onset of flow separation, moving the pitchup point to a higher lift coefficient and reducing its severity.

Matheny, N. W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere: An assessment report; processes that control ozone and other climatically important trace gases

The state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere was assessed as of January 1986. The physical, chemical, and radiative processes which control the spatial and temporal distribution of ozone in the atmosphere; the predicted magnitude of ozone perturbations and climate changes for a variety of trace gas scenarios; and the ozone and temperature data used to detect the presence or absence of a long term trend were discussed. This assessment report was written by a small group of NASA scientists, was peer reviewed, and is based primarily on the comprehensive international assessment document entitled Atmospheric Ozone 1985: Assessment of Our Understanding of the Processes Controlling Its Present Distribution and Change, to be published as the World Meteorological Organization Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 16.

Watson, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Flying Beyond Flutter with the X-56A Aircraft

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed was successfully flown beyond flutter using active feedback control methods. This report discusses the flight-test methods used during envelope expansion and presents the data collected. The frequency and damping of rigid-body flight dynamic modes and the first two structural modes were estimated from the flight data. The flutter mechanism (body freedom flutter) was found to match predictions with coupling occurring between the short period and the first symmetric wing bending mode. Flights up to the instability threshold and beyond were conducted using active feedback control. Several tests were conducted in flight where the control system was disabled momentarily to observe the unstable flutter mode and then reengaged; thus, demonstrating active suppression.

Jacob Schaefer↗

NASA NTRS1982

Factors influencing the thermally-induced strength degradation of B/Al composites

Literature data related to the thermally-induced strength degradation of B/Al composites were examined in the light of fracture theories based on reaction-controlled fiber weakening. Under the assumption of a parabolic time-dependent growth for the interfacial reaction product, a Griffith-type fracture model was found to yield simple equations whose predictions were in good agreement with data for boron fiber average strength and for B/Al axial fracture strain. The only variables in these equations were the time and temperature of the thermal exposure and an empirical factor related to fiber surface smoothness prior to composite consolidation. Such variables as fiber diameter and aluminum alloy composition were found to have little influence. The basic and practical implications of the fracture model equations are discussed.

Dicarlo, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Factors influencing the thermally-induced strength degradation of B/Al composites

Dicarlo, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Concept of Operations for Management by Trajectory

This document describes Management by Trajectory (MBT), a concept for future air traffic management (ATM) in which every flight operates in accordance with a four-dimensional trajectory (4DT) that is negotiated between the airspace user and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to respect the airspace user's goals while complying with National Airspace System (NAS) constraints. In the present-day NAS, the ATM system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the approved flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, once the aircraft starts to move, controllers tactically manage the aircraft to implement traffic management restrictions, separate otherwise conflicting aircraft, and address arising NAS constraints. Tactical controller actions are not directly communicated to the automation systems or other stakeholders. Furthermore, the initial trajectory prediction does not anticipate these disruptions or how they will impact the flight. Consequently, and compounded by gaps in required data and models, trajectory predictions are less accurate than possible, which affects Traffic Flow Management (TFM) performance. A cornerstone of the MBT concept is that all air vehicles have, at all times, an assigned 4DT from their current state to their destination. These assigned trajectories consist of trajectory constraints and descriptions. Pilots and air traffic controllers, with the aid of automation, operate the aircraft to comply with the assigned trajectory, unless first negotiating a revision. Equipped aircraft have substantial responsibility for complying with the assigned trajectory without controller intervention. To maximize the operational flexibility available to the airspace user, the assigned trajectory only imposes trajectory constraints as required to achieve the ATM goals of NAS constraint compliance and aircraft separation. Trajectory descriptions are added to the assigned trajectory to ensure sufficient predictability. To further improve trajectory prediction accuracy, airspace users supplement the assigned trajectory by broadcasting intent information and updating it as necessary. Air vehicle intent is a more detailed description of the airspace user's plan for how the flight will fly the assigned trajectory. Air vehicle intent can change freely, without negotiation, as long as it remains in compliance with the assigned trajectory. Aircraft assigned trajectories, air vehicle intent, and predicted trajectories are shared, creating a common view among stakeholders. A NAS Constraint Service gathers and publishes information about all known NAS constraints, enabling airspace users to be informed participants in trajectory negotiation. Trajectory constraints in the assigned trajectory are mapped to NAS constraints to facilitate identifying which aircraft are affected when NAS constraints change. To support efficient trajectory negotiation, all aircraft provide current information about air vehicle capabilities. Assigned trajectories are constructed to satisfy all known NAS constraints, improving trajectory stability and predictability. Uncertainty and disruptions are handled by modifying the assigned trajectory as far in advance as possible. By proactively negotiating changes to the assigned trajectory, rather than relying on controller-selected tactical actions such as vectors to resolve traffic conflicts or implement miles-in-trail restrictions, MBT keeps aircraft on closed trajectories that are fully known to all stakeholders. Since reactive air traffic control actions cannot be predicted in advance, the downstream trajectory cannot be accurately predicted until they happen. Reliable trajectory predictions allow the system to identify needed modifications to trajectories further in advance, where they can be negotiated and communicated as amendments (i.e., additional or altered trajectory constraints) to the assigned trajectory. Decision Support Tools (DSTs) aid controllers in rapidly defining and communicating closed trajectories to the aircraft and support all stakeholders in trajectory negotiation. Anticipated MBT benefit mechanisms include more accurate trajectory predictions, improved ATM performance and robustness to off-nominal conditions, increased flexibility and operational efficiency, reduced impediments to emerging classes of airspace users accessing NAS resources, reduced environmental impacts, and enhanced safety.

ConOps↗

NASA NTRS1980

Comparison of inlet suppressor data with approximate theory based on cutoff ratio

This paper represents the initial quantitative comparison of inlet suppressor far-field directivity suppression with that predicted using an approximate liner design and evaluation method based upon mode cutoff ratio. The experimental data was obtained using a series of cylindrical point-reacting inlet liners on an Avco-Lycoming YF102 engine. The theoretical prediction program is based upon simplified sound propagation concepts derived from exact calculations. These indicate that all of the controlling phenomenon can be approximately correlated with mode cutoff ratio which itself is intimately related to the angles of propagation within the duct. The objective of the theory-data comparisons is to point out possible deficiencies in the approximate theory which may be corrected. After all theoretical refinements have been made, then empirical corrections can be applied.

Rice, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors↗

NASA NTRS1997

Determining Functional Reliability of Pyrotechnic Mechanical Devices

This paper describes a new approach for evaluating mechanical performance and predicting the mechanical functional reliability of pyrotechnic devices. Not included are other possible failure modes, such as the initiation of the pyrotechnic energy source. The requirement of hundreds or thousands of consecutive, successful tests on identical components for reliability predictions, using the generally accepted go/no-go statistical approach routinely ignores physics of failure. The approach described in this paper begins with measuring, understanding and controlling mechanical performance variables. Then, the energy required to accomplish the function is compared to that delivered by the pyrotechnic energy source to determine mechanical functional margin. Finally, the data collected in establishing functional margin is analyzed to predict mechanical functional reliability, using small-sample statistics. A careful application of this approach can provide considerable cost improvements and understanding over that of go/no-go statistics. Performance and the effects of variables can be defined, and reliability predictions can be made by evaluating 20 or fewer units. The application of this approach to a pin puller used on a successful NASA mission is provided as an example.

Bement, Laurence J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Basal glycogenolysis in mouse skeletal muscle: in vitro model predicts in vivo fluxes

A previously published mammalian kinetic model of skeletal muscle glycogenolysis, consisting of literature in vitro parameters, was modified by substituting mouse specific Vmax values. The model demonstrates that glycogen breakdown to lactate is under ATPase control. Our criteria to test whether in vitro parameters could reproduce in vivo dynamics was the ability of the model to fit phosphocreatine (PCr) and inorganic phosphate (Pi) dynamic NMR data from ischemic basal mouse hindlimbs and predict biochemically-assayed lactate concentrations. Fitting was accomplished by optimizing four parameters--the ATPase rate coefficient, fraction of activated glycogen phosphorylase, and the equilibrium constants of creatine kinase and adenylate kinase (due to the absence of pH in the model). The optimized parameter values were physiologically reasonable, the resultant model fit the [PCr] and [Pi] timecourses well, and the model predicted the final measured lactate concentration. This result demonstrates that additional features of in vivo enzyme binding are not necessary for quantitative description of glycogenolytic dynamics.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2020

Dynamic Countermeasure Fabrics for Post-Spaceflight Orthostatic Intolerance

Aerospace orthostatic intolerance garments (OIG) have historically been pneumatic (e.g., NASA’s antigravity suit), an approach that inhibits mobility and requires connection to an air supply. Elastic compression garments, an alternative technology, are difficult to don/doff and cannot be worn in a noncompressive state, resulting in discomfort and usability challenges. This research evaluates a novel technology—contractile shape memory alloy (SMA) knitted actuators—that can enable low-profile, dynamic compression for an aerospace OIG. To characterize the functional capabilities of SMA knitted actuators, displacement control testing was conducted on 10 actuator samples with a range of geometric design parameters. Inactive (FI) and actuated forces (FA) were observed by repeatedly thermally cycling each sample at 0%, 15%, 30%, and 45% structural strain. Compression capabilities were approximated using medical compression hosiery standards and anthropometric data from a representative aerospace population (ANSUR 2012). Dynamic compression predictions reached 52 mmHg (single layer fabric) and 105 mmHg (double layer fabric) at the ankle. Low, inactive pressures (p, 20 mmHg) demonstrate that compression is controllable and can be dynamically increased upon actuation up to 33 mmHg in a single layer system and up to 67 mmHg in a double layer system. The results highlight the potential of SMA knitted actuators to enable low-profile, dynamic compression garments that can reach medically therapeutic pressures on an aerospace population to counteract OI symptoms. In addition to astronautic applications, this technology demonstrates widespread terrestrial medical and high-performance aircraft applicability.

Orthostatic intolerance↗

NASA NTRS1947

An Investigation of the Low-speed Stability and Control Characteristics of Swept-forward and Swept-back Wing in the Ames 40- by 80-foot Wind Tunnel

An investigation has been made at large scale of the characteristics of highly swept wings. Data were obtained at several angles of sideslip on wings having angles of sweep of plus or minus 45 degrees, plus or minus 30 degrees, and 0 degrees. The airfoil sections of the wings varied from approximately NACA 0015 at the root to NACA 23009 at the tip. Each wing was investigated with flaps under flection, partial-span split flaps deflected 60 degrees, full-span split flaps defected 60 degrees and split-flap-type ailerons deflected plus or minus 15 degrees. Values of maximum lift were obtained at Reynolds numbers raging from 5.7 to 9.2 times 10 to the 6th power. In this report the summarized results are compared with the predictions made by use of the simplified theory for the effect of sweep and with existing small-scale data. The basic wind-tunnel results from which these summary data were taken are included in an appendix. The primary problems accompanying the use of weep as revealed by this investigation are the loss in maximum lift, the high effective dihedral, and the sharp reduction in lateral-control effectiveness. In general, simple theory enables good predictions to be made of the gross effects of sweep but further refinements are necessary to obtain the accuracy required for design purposes. In cases where comparisons can be made, the indications are that, as sweep increases, scale effects diminish and large-scale results approach small-scale results.

Mccormack, Gerald M↗