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At least 397 records · Page 22

Observations of Circumstellar Material Around Evolved Stars With the ISI

The U.C. Berkeley Infrared Spatial Interferometer (ISI) is a stellar interferometer operating in the 9-12 micron region and has been in operation from 1988 until the present. It utilizes heterodyne detection using CO2 laser local oscillators and currently includes two 1.65 m movable telescopes mounted in semi-trailers and baselines up to about 65 m in length. A third telescope is being integrated with the other two and within the next year will operate as an imaging interferometer providing data with three simultaneous baselines and a closure phase, and baselines up to about 75 m. During the past twelve years the ISI has been used extensively for studies of circumstellar material around evolved stars. Multi-epoch observations of a sample of prototypical sources have elucidated the location and time scales for dust formation around these stars. These time scales can be as short as approx.10 years for Mira stars and as long as approx. 100 years for supergiants. For stars like Mira itself there is evidence for departure from spherical symmetry and episodes of dust formation and destruction. For some stars motion of dust has been observed -- IK Tau is one example, and NML Cyg is another. The molecules Silane and Ammonia were observed for the extreme carbon star IRC +10216 and the supergiant VY CMa pinpointing their location relative to the inner radius of the dust shell. Somewhat surprisingly, these molecules were found to form many stellar radii away from the inner radius of the dust shell, implying that they form by interactions with the surfaces of dust grains. Last year observations with the longest baselines lead to new precision diameters of $o$ Ceti and $\alpha$ Orionis, and are continuing on a somewhat larger set of Mira variable and supergiant stars.

Danchi, W. C.↗

A Sensor for Obtaining Ablation Rates

A variable-capacitance ablation-rate sensor which allows continuous measurements of ablation rates for Teflon and similar polymers has been developed and tested i n an ethylene-heated high-temperature jet at stagnation temperatures ranging from 2,400 deg to 3,800 deg F. The data (length changes) were measured by using the same telemeter equipment as that used in rocket-propelled flight vehicles.Results indicate measurement error to be a maximum of 4 percent between the telemetered length changes and the length changes that were obtained from photographic records of the test.

Winters, Clyde W.↗

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗

The CACAO Method for Smoothing, Gap Filling, and Characterizing Seasonal Anomalies in Satellite Time Series

Consistent, continuous, and long time series of global biophysical variables derived from satellite data are required for global change research. A novel climatology fitting approach called CACAO (Consistent Adjustment of the Climatology to Actual Observations) is proposed to reduce noise and fill gaps in time series by scaling and shifting the seasonal climatological patterns to the actual observations. The shift and scale CACAO parameters adjusted for each season allow quantifying shifts in the timing of seasonal phenology and inter-annual variations in magnitude as compared to the average climatology. CACAO was assessed first over simulated daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series with varying fractions of missing data and noise. Then, performances were analyzed over actual satellite LAI products derived from AVHRR Long-Term Data Record for the 1981-2000 period over the BELMANIP2 globally representative sample of sites. Comparison with two widely used temporal filtering methods-the asymmetric Gaussian (AG) model and the Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter as implemented in TIMESAT-revealed that CACAO achieved better performances for smoothing AVHRR time series characterized by high level of noise and frequent missing observations. The resulting smoothed time series captures well the vegetation dynamics and shows no gaps as compared to the 50-60% of still missing data after AG or SG reconstructions. Results of simulation experiments as well as confrontation with actual AVHRR time series indicate that the proposed CACAO method is more robust to noise and missing data than AG and SG methods for phenology extraction.

LAI↗

Hinode: A Decade of Success in Capturing Solar Activity

As the present solar cycle passes into its minimum phase, the Hinode mission marks its tenth year of investigating solar activity. Hinode's decade of successful observations have provided us with immeasurable insight into the solar processes that invoke space weather and thereby affect the interplanetary environment in which we reside. The mission's complementary suite of instruments allows us to probe transient, high energy events alongside long-term, cycle-dependent phenomena from magnetic fields at the Sun's surface out to highly thermalized coronal plasma enveloping active regions (ARs). These rich data sets have already changed the face of solar physics and will continue to provoke exciting research as new observational paradigms are pursued. Hinode was launched as part of the Science Mission Directorate's (SMD) Solar Terrestrial Probes Program in 2006. It is a sophisticated spacecraft equipped with a Solar Optical Telescope (SOT), an Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS), and an X-Ray Telescope (XRT) (see x 4). With high resolution and sensitivity, Hinode serves as a microscope for the Sun, providing us with unique capabilities for observing magnetic fields near the smallest scales achievable, while also rendering full-Sun coronal context in the highest thermal regimes. The 2014 NASA SMD strategic goals objective to "Understand the Sun and its interactions with the Earth and the solar system, including space weather" forms the basis of three underlying Heliophysics Science Goals. While Hinode relates to all three, the observatory primarily addresses: Explore the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun to the Earth and through the solar system. Within the NASA National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey Priorities, Hinode targets: (a) Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations of the space environment and (d) Discover and characterize fundamental processes that occur both within the heliosphere and throughout the universe. In response to the 2012 NRC Decadal Survey Science Challenges and 2014 Heliophysics Roadmap Research Focus Areas, the Hinode mission has set forth four Prioritized Science Goals (PSGs): (a) Study the sources and evolution of highly energetic dynamic events; (b) Characterize cross-scale magnetic field topology and stability; (c) Trace mass and energy flow from the photosphere to the corona; and (d) Continue long term synoptic support to quantify cycle variability.

review↗

JPSS-1/NOAA-20 VIIRS Early On-Orbit Geometric Performance

The first NOAA/NASA Join Polar Satellite System (JPSS-1) satellite was successfully launched on November 18, 2017,becoming NOAA-20. Instruments on-board the NOAA-20 satellite include the Visible Infrared Imaging RadiometerSuite (VIIRS). This instrument is the second build of VIIRS, with the first flight instrument on-board NASA/NOAASuomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite operating since October 2011. The purpose of these VIIRSinstruments is to continue the long-term measurements of biogeophysical variables for multiple applications includingweather forecasting, rapid response and climate research. The geometric performance of VIIRS is essential to retrievingaccurate biogeophysical variables. This paper describes the early on-orbit geometric performance of the JPSS-1/NOAA-20 VIIRS. It first discusses the on-orbit orbit and attitude performance, a key input needed for accurate geolocation. Itthen discusses the on-orbit geometric characterization and calibration of VIIRS and an initial assessment of thegeometric accuracy. It follows with a discussion of an improvement in the instrument geometric model that correctssmall geometrical artifacts that appear in the along-scan direction. Finally, this paper discusses on-orbit measurements ofthe focal length and the impact of this on the scan-to-scan underlap/overlap.

Lin, Guoqing↗

Detecting Seasonal Ice Dynamics in Satellite Images

Fully understanding how glaciers respond to environmental change will require new methods to help us identify the onset of ice acceleration events and observe how dynamic signals propagate within glaciers. In particular, observations of ice dynamics on seasonal timescales may offer insights into how a glacier interacts with various forcing mechanisms throughout the year. The task of generating continuous ice velocity time series that resolve seasonal variability is made more difficult by a spotty satellite record that contains no optical observations throughout the dark, polar winters. Furthermore, velocities obtained by feature tracking are marked by high noise when image pairs are separated by short time intervals and contain no direct insights into variability that occurs between images separated by long time intervals. In this paper, we describe a method of analyzing optical or SAR-derived feature-tracked velocities to characterize the magnitude and timing of seasonal ice dynamic variability. Our method is agnostic to data gaps and is able to recover climatological average winter velocities regardless of the availability of direct observations during winter. Using characteristic image acquisition times and error distributions from Antarctic image pairs in the ITS_LIVE dataset, we generate synthetic ice velocity time series, then apply our method to recover imposed magnitudes of seasonal variability within ±1.4 m yr−1. We then validate the techniques by comparing our results to GPS data collected on Russell Glacier in Greenland. The methods presented here may be applied to better understand how ice dynamic signals propagate on seasonal timescales, and what mechanisms control the flow of the world’s ice.

Chad A. Greene↗

The Solar Clock

The Sun is powered by a very stable source of fusion energy in its core that radiates that energy outward in a constant flow. Yet it has a cycle of magnetic dynamo activity whose strength and duration are variable. This variability, which affects the Earth's ‘space climate', points to temporal changes in the convective and diffusive transport of magnetic flux above the tachocline, where the flux is generated. The longest record we have of this variability is the time series of Sunspot Numbers (SSN). This record suggests that the interior of the Sun follows a clocklike magnetic flux production cycle with a length of close to 11.05 yr. The variations in sunspot cycle duration, as well as the sunspot number rise and fall times, their hemispheric asymmetries, and the maximum sunspot numbers of the individual cycles, are likely produced in the process of the magnetic flux transport. Helioseismology continues to shed more light on the convection zone variabilities, including the ‘torsional oscillations' that seem to have a special connection to the emerging strong magnetic fluxes that produce the sunspots. These new observations may eventually lead to an explanation for the surprisingly good correlation between the rate of sunspot appearance and the maximum sunspot number, and to a better understanding of the relationship between the solar dynamo and the sunspot number cycle. Better understanding of the polar regions awaits long-term monitoring with a polar solar mission. Better predictions of nearterm space weather could be obtained from a permanent L5 monitor.

C T Russell↗

Modeling Turbulent Combustion for Variable Prandtl and Schmidt Number

This report consists of two abstracts submitted for possible presentation at the AIAA Aerospace Science Meeting to be held in January 2005. Since the submittal of these abstracts we are continuing refinement of the model coefficients derived for the case of a variable Turbulent Prandtl number. The test cases being investigated are a Mach 9.2 flow over a degree ramp and a Mach 8.2 3-D calculation of crossing shocks. We have developed an axisymmetric code for treating axisymmetric flows. In addition the variable Schmidt number formulation was incorporated in the code and we are in the process of determining the model constants.

Hassan, H. A.↗

Irregular and diurnal variability in asynoptic measurements of stratospheric trace species

The consequences of irregular and diurnal variability on the interpretation of asynoptic measurements of stratospheric trace species are explored. In particular, the fidelity with which the continuous behavior may be recovered from discrete asynoptic measurements is examined. Dynamically created tracer variability in the form of an advected space-time random process is discussed. Diagnostics such as power spectra and time-mean fields are derived asynoptically and compared with the true behavior. Diurnal variations of a photochemically active species are considered, describing variability in terms of a solar waveform which propagates through a latitudinal envelope. Several diagnostics of the behavior are derived asynoptically and compared with the true variability.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Mass transfer in cataclysmic variables - Clues from the dwarf nova period distribution

Evidence is presented in support of the hypothesis that the mean mass-transfer rate at a given orbital period is not continuous across the 2-3 hr gap in the orbital period distribution for cataclysmic variables. It is pointed out that although dwarf novae comprise nearly half (48 percent) of all disk systems with orbital periods less than 10 hr, only three systems out of the 22 with periods between 3 and 4 hr appear to be dwarf novae. The overall orbital period distribution for dwarf novae in conjunction with the predictions from current theories of dwarf nova eruptions are used to argue that mass-transfer rates must be generally higher for systems with orbital periods greater than 3 hr relative to systems with periods less than 2 hr. It is further argued that the mean mass-transfer rate at a given orbital period cannot increase more steeply than P exp 1.7 unless the white dwarf mass is positively correlated with orbital period.

Shafter, A. W.↗

C deg continuity elements by Hybrid Stress method

An intensive study of the assumed variable distribution necessary for the Assumed Displacement Formulation, the Hellinger-Reissner Formulation, and the Hu-Washizu Formulation is made in a unified manner. With emphasis on physical explanation, a systematic method for the Hybrid Stress element construction is outlined. The numerical examples use four and eight node plane stress elements and eight and twenty node solid elements. Computation cost study indicates that the hybrid stress element derived using recently developed Uncoupled Stress Formulation is comparable in CPU time to the Assumed Displacement element. Overall, main emphasis is placed on providing a broader understanding of the Hybrid Stress Formulation.

Kang, David Sung-Soo↗

AIRS-Only Product in Giovanni for Exploring Up-to-Date AIRS Observation and Comparing with AIRS+AMSU Product

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission since its launch in 2002 for global observations of the atmospheric state. Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC, provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. Most important AIRS variables, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases, are available in Giovanni. AIRS is an instrument suite comprised of a hyperspectral infrared instrument (AIRS) and two multichannel microwave instruments, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB). As HSB ceased operation in the very early stages of the AIRS mission, the AIRS project operates two parallel retrieval algorithms: one using both IR and MW measurements (AIRS+AMSU) and the other using only IR measurements (AIRS-only), which covers most of the mission duration. The AIRS+AMSU product is better quality, and the variables in Giovanni are from this product. However, generation of the AIRS+AMSU product has been suspended since the AMSU instrument anomaly occurred in late September 2016. To continue exploring up-to-date AIRS observations, the same set of variables from the AIRS-only product have been added to Giovanni by the GES DSIC. This will also support comparison of AIRS-only with AIRS+AMSU retrievals. In this presentation, we demonstrate the visualization of the AIRS-only product and plots/statistics of comparison with AIRS+AMSU product using Giovanni.

AIRS↗

Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models During 1980–2018

A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/sq.m reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/sq.m from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

Scafetta, Nicola↗

Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models during 1980-2018

A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/m2 reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/m2 from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

total solar irradiance↗

Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments

Computational tools have been developed to estimate thermal and mechanical reentry loads experienced by the Space Shuttle Orbiter as the result of cavities in the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Such cavities can be caused by impact from ice or insulating foam debris shed from the External Tank (ET) on liftoff. The reentry loads depend on cavity geometry and certain Shuttle state variables, among other factors. Certain simplifying assumptions have been made in the tool development about the cavity geometry variables. For example, the cavities are all modeled as shoeboxes , with rectangular cross-sections and planar walls. So an actual cavity is typically approximated with an idealized cavity described in terms of its length, width, and depth, as well as its entry angle, exit angle, and side angles (assumed to be the same for both sides). As part of a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in reentry loads estimated by the debris impact assessment tools, an effort has been initiated to quantify the component of the uncertainty that is due to imperfect geometry specifications for the debris impact cavities. The approach is to compute predicted loads for a set of geometry factor combinations sufficient to develop polynomial approximations to the complex, nonparametric underlying computational models. Such polynomial models are continuous and feature estimable, continuous derivatives, conditions that facilitate the propagation of independent variable errors. As an additional benefit, once the polynomial models have been developed, they require fewer computational resources to execute than the underlying finite element and computational fluid dynamics codes, and can generate reentry loads estimates in significantly less time. This provides a practical screening capability, in which a large number of debris impact cavities can be quickly classified either as harmless, or subject to additional analysis with the more comprehensive underlying computational tools. The polynomial models also provide useful insights into the sensitivity of reentry loads to various cavity geometry variables, and reveal complex interactions among those variables that indicate how the sensitivity of one variable depends on the level of one or more other variables. For example, the effect of cavity length on certain reentry loads depends on the depth of the cavity. Such interactions are clearly displayed in the polynomial response models.

DeLoach, R.↗

A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation

Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of global runoff. We expect that the successes and limitations revealed in this study will lay the basis for applying more advanced methods to capture the dynamic variability of the global hydrologic process for global runoff monlto~ngin real time. The essential ingredient in this work is the use of global satellite-based rainfall estimation.

Hong, Yang↗

Streamlining Pre-Launch Support for Missions with Highly Variable Trajectories

As the Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) continues to ensure mission success in support of Human Space Flight (HSF) and Launch Vehicle (LV) missions, it continues to improve on different areas of mission support. The FDF processes numerous different types of trajectory profiles, and, for each trajectory, the FDF provides multiple acquisition data vectors to the Space Network (SN) White Sands Complex (WSC) for further processing and uplinking to the SN's Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs), tracking the vehicle and maintaining communications throughout required support. Some trajectories target a specific orbit plane through Right Ascension of the Ascending Node (RAAN), or yaw, steering, which can yield to high variability across the launch window. Because of this, there can be a large number of trajectory profiles to process and generate acquisition data for that ensure TDRS is accurately pointing to the launch vehicle. Processing many trajectory profiles by FDF and WSC increases the complexity and level of effort associated with support. FDF employs a legacy boundary on the range difference between trajectories, which determines the number of discrete trajectory cases required to maintain communication with TDRS over the full launch window. An analysis was performed to determine a new boundary, taking into consideration current support requirements. The results show the boundary can be expanded beyond the currently employed legacy value without an impact on communication. In doing so, the number of trajectory profiles processed can be reduced, reducing the complexity and level of effort required, with no impact to mission safety.

Flight Operations↗