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DOE OSTI2020

Creation and sustainment of wide pedestal quiescent H-mode with zero net neutral beam torque

Recent experiments on DIII-D have shown it is possible to create and sustain wide pedestal quiescent H-mode (QH-mode) plasmas with zero net torque from neutral beam injection (NBI) for the full discharge duration. Wide pedestal QH-mode has many of the features of the previously investigated QH-mode while having the advantage of increased edge pedestal pressure and excellent energy confinement time. Both QH-mode variants operate without edge localized modes. Accordingly, these discharges demonstrate that significant input torque is not essential to the exploitation of wide pedestal QH-mode in future devices that are expected to have small or nonexistent NBI torque. In conclusion, developing operating conditions that allowed net zero torque access to wide pedestal QH-mode required implementing several techniques to avoid locked modes including minimizing intrinsic error fields, avoiding large sawteeth, and driving toroidal rotation via neoclassical toroidal viscosity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Model of Back-to-Back Converter for System Level Phasor Simulation

The power system is expected to evolve rapidly with increasing deployment of power electronic interface and conditioning systems, microgrids, and hybrid AC/DC grids. Among power electronic systems, back-to-back (BTB) converters can be a powerful interface to integrate microgrids and networked microgrids. However, in system level dynamic simulations for synchronous machine dominated system with BTB converters, a detailed electromagnetic sinusoidal models is not warranted as these simulations are focused on electromechanical transients. This paper focus on developing a simple phasor model for back- to-back converters that can be easily integrated into powerflow solvers to facilitate large-scale power system simulations. The model is implemented using C++ language and integrated into GridLAB-D software as a potential new capability. The GridLAB-D phasor domain model is validated against the electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of the detailed switching model. Simulation results show that the phasor model successfully captures the dominant dynamics of the converters.

Mahmood, Hisham↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification in Thermal Hydraulics, Freeman Scholar Lecture (2019)

Engineering problems are generally solved by analytical models or computer codes. These models, in addition to conservation equations, also include many empirical relationships and approximate numerical methods. Each of these components contributes to the uncertainty in the prediction. A systematic approach to judge the applicability of the code to the intended application is needed. It starts from verification of implementation of formulation in the code, identification of important phenomena, finding relevant tests with quantified uncertainty for these phenomena, and validation of the code by comparing predictions with the relevant test data. The relevant tests must address phenomena as expected in the intended application. In case of small size or limited condition tests, the scaling analyses are needed to assess the relevancy of the tests. Finally, a statement of uncertainty in the prediction is needed. Systematic approaches are described to aggregate uncertainties from different components of the code for intended application. Here, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantifications (VVUQs) are briefly described.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Full Transport General Relativistic Radiation Magnetohydrodynamics for Nucleosynthesis in Collapsars

We model a compact black hole-accretion disk system in the collapsar scenario with full transport, frequency dependent, general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamics. We examine whether or not winds from a collapsar disk can undergo rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis and significantly contribute to solar r-process abundances. We find the inclusion of accurate transport has significant effects on outflows, raising the electron fraction above ${Y}_{{\rm{e}}}\sim 0.3$ and preventing third-peak r-process material from being synthesized. We analyze the time evolution of neutrino processes and electron fraction in the disk and present a simple one-dimensional model for the vertical structure that emerges. Finally, we compare our simulation to semi-analytic expectations and argue that accurate neutrino transport and realistic initial and boundary conditions are required to capture the dynamics and nucleosynthetic outcome of a collapsar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tritium Transport Phenomena in Molten-Salt Reactors

In this work, we review phenomena relevant to tritium transport in molten-salt reactors, which produce tritium from lithium and beryllium salts at significantly higher levels than other reactor types. Modeling of such phenomena began following MSRE operations, and these early models attempted to predict measured tritium distributions in the MSRE, accounting for turbulent mass-transport processes (using established heat transfer correlations), permeation through a variety of metal structures such as heat exchanger tubes, and transport to and from bubbles introduced into the salt by gas sparging. The models reasonably reproduced the MSRE data, but did so best when the permeability of structures was reduced by about a factor of 1,000. This issue does not appear to have been conclusively resolved, and all of the more recent attempts to model tritium transport in molten salts appear to make use of the same methodology. MSRE remains, however, essentially our only source of integral tritium transport data relevant to MSRs. Here, we generalize the MSRE approach to permeation in order to include potential rate-limiting effects at interfaces, as well the effects of added hydrogen. Appropriately non-dimensionalized, this system of equations identifies two dimensionless numbers whose relative values clearly delineate the conditions under which mass transport, surface effects, permeation, and hydrogen swamping are expected to become rate-limiting. We also describe the preliminary conceptual design of a forced convection FLiBe loop, into which tritium would be introduced for the purpose of providing validation data for such a model. The primary purpose of this is to investigate the coupled transport phenomena described above and identify those that are rate-limiting in MSRs. Additional test section configurations are described that would address other transport phenomena relevant to MSRs, including bubbly flows and graphite interactions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Use of Unmanned Aerial Systems for Post-closure Waste Site Maintenance and Surveillance - 20143

The P- and R-Area Reactor buildings, located at SRS near Aiken, SC, were in-situ decommissioned by grouting below-grade portions of the buildings and demolishing some above-grade structures to grade level. Other reactor building structures were left above-grade and sealed to prevent human or animal access. Because the above grade-structures are expected to continue in their present state for hundreds of years, the condition of the building roofs is critical to mitigate rainwater intrusion. For this reason, building roof areas were strengthened with high strength concrete to ensure the long-term integrity of the roof structure. Periodic inspections of the roof structures are required to ensure that the roofs are functioning properly and to identify damage areas. The traditional method of inspecting closed reactor buildings requires the use of a helicopter and photographer to generate photographs and videos for review. This method proved sufficient but lacked the resolution and clarity that is required for a thorough inspection of the building structure. Fortunately, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has established a Small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) program using commercially available and custom-built remote-controlled aircraft. EC and ACP contacted the SRNL program to evaluate whether the sUAS technology could be employed for periodic reactor building inspections. The sUAS can fly within a few meters of the reactor buildings and hover, allowing for a more thorough aerial inspection. The initial sUAS inspection of the P-Area Reactor building was completed in February 2018 and at the R-Area Reactor building in August 2018 and were successful in providing higher resolution photos and videos. The sUAS inspections also revealed that vegetation had begun to grow on the roofs that could potentially damage the structure integrity. SRNL partnered with Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University to build a custom heavy lift sUAS that could be equipped with herbicides to remotely treat the vegetative growth. Herbicides were successfully applied to the R-Area Reactor building roof using the custom sUAS in September 2018. The use of unmanned aircraft systems at SRS to perform aerial inspections and herbicide treatment in otherwise inaccessible areas has proven to be an efficient and cost-effective technology that provides high value, increases knowledge of facility conditions, and provides for early detection of damage. Periodic inspections of the reactor building roofs using sUAS technology are performed safely, efficiently, and at a significant cost and schedule savings while reducing emissions, noise, and fossil fuel use. The use of sUAS equipment for building inspections and herbicide application at SRS is unique within the DOE complex. The goal of SRS is to apply this remote technology to other waste unit operations and maintenance activities in the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of the Corrosion Risks to a Double Shell Tank During the Selective Removal of a Cesium-rich Supernate Layer - 20227

The Direct Feed Low Activity Waste (DF-LAW) activity will provide the initial feed to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant at the Hanford Tank Farm facility. Feed preparation for DF-LAW will be carried out in multiple double shell waste tanks (DST) utilizing the Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) process. Tank AP-106 will be an integral part of the TSCR process and hence key to the DFLAW activity. Prior to being utilized for this purpose, the Cs-137 concentration levels in the AP-106 supernate must be reduced significantly. The AP-106 re-purposing process manages normal waste tank addition procedures such that waste acceptance criteria objectives for Cs-137 removal are achieved. As this process was being developed, several concerns regarding tank integrity during and after repurposing of Tank AP-106, and the associated tanks (i.e., AP-102, AN-101, and AP-108), were addressed. The potential corrosion degradation mechanisms identified based on process knowledge included: general and pitting corrosion, caustic stress corrosion cracking, concentration cell corrosion, and microbiologically induced corrosion (MIC). A systematic approach was undertaken to assess the risk of corrosion during the AP-106 re-purposing process. The assessment considered the initial and present condition of the tank, the service history of the tank, the environmental conditions created in each tank during each stage of the process, process timing, and corrosion testing and modeling that approximated tank conditions. Based on this information, recommendations were provided to minimize the exposure of the tank to corrosive conditions. These recommendations included time limits for each stage of the process, staging of corrosion inhibitor solutions should process delays occur, and waste sampling with potential chemistry adjustments at defined steps in the process. Additionally, recommendations for post-process supernate chemistry adjustments and tank inspections were put forth. The greatest risk for this process occurs during the manipulation of large quantities of Columbia River water (i.e., greater than 450,000 gallons) within AP-106, the associated tanks and the supporting infrastructure (i.e., transfer line piping). This risk becomes more pronounced if there is a process upset and the tank walls remain exposed to a corrosive condition longer than intended. As long as the river water is blended into the supernate in a timely fashion, and the waste is adjusted appropriately with corrosion inhibitors, corrosion may be minimized and the final condition of the supernate in AP-106 and the associated tanks is expected to be in compliance with corrosion chemistry requirements. Contingency plans will be made to minimize the impact of a process upset. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

MICROREACTOR APPLICATIONS, RESEARCH, VALIDATION, AND EVALUATION (MARVEL) REACTOR ? STATUS, CONSTRUCTION, AND TESTING

The paper presents the current status of the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor design, qualification testing, fabrication, and high-level construction schedule. An overview of initial criticality, low power physics testing, and start-up testing is included, as well as an overview of the envisioned processes in which end-users can engage the project for access to operational data or specific demonstrations. Designed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy’s Microreactor Program for construction and operation at the INL, MARVEL is a small, fully functional advanced reactor with UZrH fuel and thermal output of 85 kW. It offers a unique opportunity for scaled demonstrations that can dramatically accelerate the design, licensing, and deployment of commercial microreactors for power production or process heat applications. MARVEL’s objective is to build a small liquid-metal thermal reactor at the INL to demonstrate design and operating processes for microreactors, microgrid integration, and process heat applications. MARVEL finished 90%-final-design in September 2023 and completed an independent project assessment in early 2024. Fabrication of long-lead components and fuel, safety analysis review, and procurement for construction are underway. MARVEL assembly and construction will start in 2025 and fuel loading is expected in mid- 2027. Initial criticality will be performed in a dry condition in late 2027, followed by loading of NaK coolant and start-up testing. Approximately six months later, release for unrestricted operations will enable subsequent testing of microreactor characteristics, microgrid integration and select heat extraction applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers Final Report

Geothermal energy has been underutilized in the U.S., primarily due to the high cost of drilling in the harsh environments encountered during the development of geothermal resources. Drilling depths can approach 5,000 m with temperatures reaching 170 C. In situ geothermal fluids are up to ten times more saline than seawater and highly corrosive, and hard rock formations often exceed 240 MPa compressive strength. This combination of extreme conditions pushes the limits of most conventional drilling equipment. Furthermore, enhanced geothermal systems are expected to reach depths of 10,000 m and temperatures more than 300 °C. To address these drilling challenges, Sandia developed a proof-of-concept tool called the auto indexer under an annual operating plan task funded by the Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP) of the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office. The auto indexer is a relatively simple, elastomer-free motor that was shown previously to be compatible with pneumatic hammers in bench-top testing. Pneumatic hammers can improve penetration rates and potentially reduce drilling costs when deployed in appropriate conditions. The current effort, also funded by DOE GTP, increased the technology readiness level of the auto indexer, producing a scaled prototype for drilling larger diameter boreholes using pneumatic hammers. The results presented herein include design details, modeling and simulation results, and testing results, as well as background on percussive hammers and downhole rotation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Maximizing quantum enhancement in axion dark matter experiments

We provide a comprehensive comparison of linear amplifiers and microwave photon counters in axion dark matter experiments. The study is done assuming a range of realistic operating conditions and detector parameters, over the frequency range between 1 and 30 GHz. As expected, photon counters are found to be advantageous under low background, at high frequencies (𝜈 >5 GHz), if they can be implemented with robust wide-frequency tuning or a very low dark count rate. Additional noteworthy observations emerging from this study include: (1) an expanded applicability of off-resonance photon background reduction, including the single-quadrature state squeezing, for scan rate enhancements; (2) a much broader appeal for operating the haloscope resonators in the overcoupling regime, up to 𝛽 ∼10; (3) the need for a detailed investigation into the cryogenic and electromagnetic conditions inside haloscope cavities to lower the photon temperature for future experiments; (4) the necessity to develop a distributed network of coupling ports in high-volume axion haloscopes to utilize these potential gains in the scan rate.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Standardized Analysis Process Using Digital Image Correlation to Calculate In Situ Cladding Strain from Modified Burst Tests for Fuel Performance Code Validation

Historical data collection on nuclear fuel cladding materials has focused on generating a statistically significant amount of data to assess the material and its failure behavior. Furthermore, data generated to support material model and failure criteria development were previously posttest evaluations, so a large number of tests was required to gain new understanding. A way to expedite this process is to develop techniques capable of generating large, high-fidelity data sets from a single test with lower uncertainty or quantified uncertainty. One such example of this approach is Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s use of modified burst tests (MBTs) to analyze the mechanical behavior and failure conditions of cladding during a simulated reactivity-initiated accident (RIA). Each test incorporates digital image correlation (DIC) analysis techniques that are used to assess the accumulated strain in situ, as well as eventual cladding failure. This work has been fruitful in defining strain-to-failure conditions for materials like silicon carbide (SiC) fiber–reinforced/SiC matrix composite tubes (SiC/SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy tubes, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. However, there are numerous DIC software available, including open-source and proprietary software. The different DIC software use various algorithms to process images and calculate displacement values. Using these different software and algorithms can lead to varying results, and perhaps larger-than-expected uncertainties. In the present study, previously published MBT data encompassing a variety of test conditions were reanalyzed with two different DIC software to assess the variance in the calculated strain results. The data consisted of SiC/SiC, FeCrAl, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. Plots of the calculated strains during the transient revealed good agreement between the two DIC software. The average root-mean-square errors between the two software was 0.20% strain, which is slightly larger than a previously reported error value for these tests. In conclusion, this variance in results is low enough that this analysis method can be used for code validation.

Reactivity-initiated accident↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Long-term Storage of ILW: Building Stores with the Appropriate Environmental Controls - 20294

In the UK, containers for the storage and disposal of intermediate level radioactive waste (ILW) typically use stainless steel due to its excellent mechanical properties and corrosion resistance. The period of interim storage before a disposal facility is available, however, is longer than available engineering experience with stainless steels in relevant environmental conditions. Additionally, after disposal the ability of ILW containers to withstand further periods of exposure to the environment is expected to provide substantial benefits to the operation of a disposal facility and the safety case underpinning its closure. For these reasons, although there have been no instances of failure of stainless steels in indoor storage conditions, a focused R and D programme has been carried out to identify the environmental envelope over which the material does not significantly degrade. In this study we summarise experimental and modelling studies carried out over the last decade to build a solid mechanistic understanding of the corrosion behaviour of stainless steels in indoor atmospheric conditions. We then identify suitable environmental regimes to minimise the risk of degradation processes and explore approaches to monitoring the storage conditions to gain confidence in the long-term performance of the system. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thin-film chemical expansion of ceria based solid solutions: laser vibrometry study

The chemical expansion of Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ (PCO) and CeO 2-δ thin films is investigated in the temperature range between 600 °C and 800 °C by laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV). It enables non-contact determination of nanometer scale changes in film thickness at high temperatures. The present study is the first systematic and detailed investigation of chemical expansion of doped and undoped ceria thin films at temperatures above 650 °C. The thin films were deposited on yttria stabilized zirconia substrates (YSZ), operated as an electrochemical oxygen pump, to periodically adjust the oxygen activity in the films, leading to reversible expansion and contraction of the film. This further leads to stresses in the underlying YSZ substrates, accompanied by bending of the overall devices. Film thickness changes and sample bending are found to reach up to 10 and several hundred nanometers, respectively, at excitation frequencies from 0.1 to 10 Hz and applied voltages from 0–0.75 V for PCO and 0–1 V for ceria. At low frequencies, equilibrium conditions are approached. As a consequence maximum thin-film expansion of PCO is expected due to full reduction of the Pr ions. The lower detection limit for displacements is found to be in the subnanometer range. At 800 °C and an excitation frequency of 1 Hz, the LDV shows a remarkable resolution of 0.3 nm which allows, for example, the characterization of materials with small levels of expansion, such as undoped ceria at high oxygen partial pressure. As the correlation between film expansion and sample bending is obtained through this study, a dimensional change of a free body consisting of the same material can be calculated using the high resolution characteristics of this system. A minimum detectable dimensional change of 5 pm is estimated even under challenging high-temperature conditions at 800 °C opening up opportunities to investigate electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena heretofore impossible to investigate. The expansion data are correlated with previous results on the oxygen nonstoichiometry of PCO thin films, and a defect model for bulk ceria solid solutions is adopted to calculate the cation and anion radii changes in the constrained films during chemical expansion. The constrained films exhibit anisotropic volume expansion with displacements perpendicular to the substrate plane nearly double that of bulk samples. The PCO films used here generate high total displacements of several 100 nm’s with high reproducibility. Consequently, PCO films are identified to be a potential core component of high-temperature actuators. They benefit not only from high displacements at temperatures where most piezoelectric materials no longer operate while exhibiting, low voltage operation and low energy consumption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Provable bounds for noise-free expectation values computed from noisy samples

Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining the N -Representability of a Reduced Density Matrix via Unitary Evolution and Stochastic Sampling

The N-representability problem consists in determining whether, for a given p-body matrix, there exists at least one N-body density matrix from which the p-body matrix can be obtained by contraction, that is, if the given matrix is a p-body reduced density matrix (p-RDM). The knowledge of all necessary and sufficient conditions for a p-body matrix to be N-representable allows the constrained minimization of a many-body Hamiltonian expectation value with respect to the p-body density matrix and, thus, the determination of its exact ground state. However, the number of constraints that complete the N-representability conditions grows exponentially with system size, and hence, the procedure quickly becomes intractable for practical applications. This work introduces a hybrid quantum-stochastic algorithm to effectively replace the N-representability conditions. The algorithm consists of applying to an initial N-body density matrix a sequence of unitary evolution operators constructed from a stochastic process that successively approaches the reduced state of the density matrix on a p-body subsystem, represented by a p-RDM, to a target p-body matrix, potentially a p-RDM. The generators of the evolution operators follow the well-known adaptive derivative-assembled pseudo-Trotter method (ADAPT), while the stochastic component is implemented by using a simulated annealing process. The resulting algorithm is independent of any underlying Hamiltonian, and it can be used to decide whether a given p-body matrix is N-representable, establishing a criterion to determine its quality and correcting it. We apply the proposed hybrid ADAPT algorithm to alleged reduced density matrices from a quantum chemistry electronic Hamiltonian, from the reduced Bardeen–Cooper–Schrieffer model with constant pairing, and from the Heisenberg XXZ spin model. In all cases, the proposed method behaves as expected for 1-RDMs and 2-RDMs, evolving the initial matrices toward different targets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the numerical sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions to large thermal gradients and cooling rates

Cellular automata (CA) models of as-solidified grain structure, originally developed and applied to casting, have become a common means of predicting grain structure resulting from Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes. The majority of these models are based on the decentered octahedron approach, which attempts to correct for the effect of grid anisotropy on the prediction of competitive solidification of dendritic grains. However, AM solidification occurs under cooling rates ($\dot{T}$) and thermal gradients (G) that are orders of magnitude larger than those encountered in casting, and no systematic investigation on the effect of the CA model cell size (Δx) and time step (Δt) on AM microstructure predictions has been performed. Here, in this study, such an investigation is first performed via simulation of individual grains of various crystallographic orientations with a fixed, unidirectional G, showing that CA prediction of the steady-state undercooling matched the expected values based on the interfacial response function at small G and deviated from the expected values at large G. Simulation of competitive growth of multiple grains showed a weakening of the predicted texture as G and Δx became large. Simulation of solidification under AM conditions, where G and $\dot{T}$ vary spatially across the melt pools, showed that not only does grain selection weaken and deviate from expectations at large Δx, but grains with crystallographic $\langle$100$\rangle$ aligned with the grid directions are more adversely affected by the temperature field discontinuities than grains with other crystallographic orientations. Despite the fact that the exact grain competition results depended on Δt, the overall texture development was notably less sensitive to Δt than Δx, provided that a reasonable value of Δt is selected based on the ratio of Δx to the maximum local solidification velocity in the simulation domain. Finally, from the directional solidification and AM simulation results, an analysis of computational cost compared to simulation resolution is performed based on an equation derived to quantify the relatively inaccuracy in grain selection based on the model and temperature field inputs. From this analysis, it is concluded that there is a need for algorithmic improvements to improve CA grain competition accuracy for large G processing conditions as sufficiently small Δx to resolve the necessary competition is intractable for many AM processing conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests

Abstract The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south‐eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process‐based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (−12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (−18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was −6.6% across 48‐years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Brown, Tegan P.↗