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At least 397 records · Page 22

NASA Tech Briefs, April 2008

Topics covered include: Gas Sensors Based on Coated and Doped Carbon Nanotubes; Tactile Robotic Topographical Mapping Without Force or Contact Sensors; Thin-Film Magnetic-Field-Response Fluid-Level Sensor for Non-Viscous Fluids; Progress in Development of Improved Ion-Channel Biosensors; Simulating Operation of a Complex Sensor Network; Using Transponders on the Moon to Increase Accuracy of GPS; Controller for Driving a Piezoelectric Actuator at Resonance; Coaxial Electric Heaters; Dual-Input AND Gate From Single-Channel Thin-Film FET; High-Density, High-Bandwidth, Multilevel Holographic Memory; Fabrication of Gate-Electrode Integrated Carbon-Nanotube Bundle Field Emitters; Hydroxide-Assisted Bonding of Ultra-Low-Expansion Glass; Photochemically Synthesized Polyimides; Optimized Carbonate and Ester-Based Li-Ion Electrolytes; Compact 6-DOF Stage for Optical Adjustments; Ultrasonic/Sonic Impacting Penetrators; Miniature, Lightweight, One-Time-Opening Valve; Supplier Management System; Improved CLARAty Functional-Layer/Decision-Layer Interface; JAVA Stereo Display Toolkit; Remote-Sensing Time Series Analysis, a Vegetation Monitoring Tool; PyPele Rewritten To Use MPI; Data Assimilation Cycling for Weather Analysis; Hydrocyclone/Filter for Concentrating Biomarkers from Soil; Activating STAT3 Alpha for Promoting Healing of Neurons; and Probing a Spray Using Frequency-Analyzed Light Scattering.

Source record↗

An Integrated Solution for Performing Thermo-fluid Conjugate Analysis

A method has been developed which integrates a fluid flow analyzer and a thermal analyzer to produce both steady state and transient results of 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D analysis models. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a one dimensional, general purpose fluid analysis code which computes pressures and flow distributions in complex fluid networks. The MSC Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (MSC.SINDA) is a one dimensional general purpose thermal analyzer that solves network representations of thermal systems. Both GFSSP and MSC.SINDA have graphical user interfaces which are used to build the respective model and prepare it for analysis. The SINDA/GFSSP Conjugate Integrator (SGCI) is a formbase graphical integration program used to set input parameters for the conjugate analyses and run the models. The contents of this paper describes SGCI and its thermo-fluids conjugate analysis techniques and capabilities by presenting results from some example models including the cryogenic chill down of a copper pipe, a bar between two walls in a fluid stream, and a solid plate creating a phase change in a flowing fluid.

Kornberg, Oren↗

Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, Version 5.0-Educational

The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a finite-volume based general-purpose computer program for analyzing steady state and time-dependent flow rates, pressures, temperatures, and concentrations in a complex flow network. The program is capable of modeling real fluids with phase changes, compressibility, mixture thermodynamics, conjugate heat transfer between solid and fluid, fluid transients, pumps, compressors and external body forces such as gravity and centrifugal. The thermofluid system to be analyzed is discretized into nodes, branches, and conductors. The scalar properties such as pressure, temperature, and concentrations are calculated at nodes. Mass flow rates and heat transfer rates are computed in branches and conductors. The graphical user interface allows users to build their models using the point, drag and click method; the users can also run their models and post-process the results in the same environment. The integrated fluid library supplies thermodynamic and thermo-physical properties of 36 fluids and 21 different resistance/source options are provided for modeling momentum sources or sinks in the branches. This Technical Memorandum illustrates the application and verification of the code through 12 demonstrated example problems.

Majumdar, A. K.↗

Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, Version 5.0-Educational. Supplemental Information for NASA/TM-2011-216470

The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a finite-volume based general-purpose computer program for analyzing steady state and time-dependent flow rates, pressures, temperatures, and concentrations in a complex flow network. The program is capable of modeling real fluids with phase changes, compressibility, mixture thermodynamics, conjugate heat transfer between solid and fluid, fluid transients, pumps, compressors and external body forces such as gravity and centrifugal. The thermofluid system to be analyzed is discretized into nodes, branches, and conductors. The scalar properties such as pressure, temperature, and concentrations are calculated at nodes. Mass flow rates and heat transfer rates are computed in branches and conductors. The graphical user interface allows users to build their models using the point, drag and click method; the users can also run their models and post-process the results in the same environment. The integrated fluid library supplies thermodynamic and thermo-physical properties of 36 fluids and 21 different resistance/source options are provided for modeling momentum sources or sinks in the branches. This Technical Memorandum illustrates the application and verification of the code through 12 demonstrated example problems. This supplement gives the input and output data files for the examples.

Majumdar, A. K.↗

Simultaneous Ka-Band Site Characterization: Goldstone, CA, White Sands, NM, and Guam, USA

To statistically characterize atmospheric effects on Ka-band links at NASA operational sites, NASA has constructed site test interferometers (STI s) which directly measure the tropospheric phase stability and rain attenuation. These instruments observe an unmodulated beacon signal broadcast from a geostationary satellite (e.g., Anik F2) and measure the phase difference between the signals received by the two antennas and its signal attenuation. Three STI s have been deployed so far: the first one at the NASA Deep Space Network Tracking Complex in Goldstone, California (May 2007); the second at the NASA White Sands Complex, in Las Cruses, New Mexico (February 2009); and the third at the NASA Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) Remote Ground Terminal (GRGT) complex in Guam (May 2010). Two station-years of simultaneous atmospheric phase fluctuation data have been collected at Goldstone and White Sands, while one year of data has been collected in Guam. With identical instruments operating simultaneously, we can directly compare the phase stability and rain attenuation at the three sites. Phase stability is analyzed statistically in terms of the root-mean-square (rms) of the tropospheric induced time delay fluctuations over 10 minute blocks. For two years, the time delay fluctuations at the DSN site in Goldstone, CA, have been better than 2.5 picoseconds (ps) for 90% of the time (with reference to zenith), meanwhile at the White Sands, New Mexico site, the time delay fluctuations have been better than 2.2 ps with reference to zenith) for 90% of time. For Guam, the time delay fluctuations have been better than 12 ps (reference to zenith) at 90% of the time, the higher fluctuations are as expected from a high humidity tropical rain zone. This type of data analysis, as well as many other site quality characteristics (e.g., rain attenuation, infrastructure, etc.) will be used to determine the suitability of all the sites for NASA s future communication services at Ka-band.

Acosta, Roberto↗

Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, Version 6.0

The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a finite-volume based general-purpose computer program for analyzing steady state and time-dependant flow rates, pressures, temperatures, and concentrations in a complex flow network. The program is capable of modeling real fluids with phase changes, compressibility, mixture thermodynamics, conjugate heat transfer between solid and fluid, fluid transients, pumps, compressors and external body forces such as gravity and centrifugal. The thermo-fluid system to be analyzed is discretized into nodes, branches, and conductors. The scalar properties such as pressure, temperature, and concentrations are calculated at nodes. Mass flow rates and heat transfer rates are computed in branches and conductors. The graphical user interface allows users to build their models using the 'point, drag, and click' method; the users can also run their models and post-process the results in the same environment. The integrated fluid library supplies thermodynamic and thermo-physical properties of 36 fluids, and 24 different resistance/source options are provided for modeling momentum sources or sinks in the branches. This Technical Memorandum illustrates the application and verification of the code through 25 demonstrated example problems.

Majumdar, A. K.↗

Modeling for Integrated Science Management and Resilient Systems Development

Many physiological, environmental, and operational risks exist for crewmembers during spaceflight. An understanding of these risks from an integrated perspective is required to provide effective and efficient mitigations during future exploration missions that typically have stringent limitations on resources available, such as mass, power, and crew time. The Human Research Program (HRP) is in the early stages of developing collaborative modeling approaches for the purposes of managing its science portfolio in an integrated manner to support cross-disciplinary risk mitigation strategies and to enable resilient human and engineered systems in the spaceflight environment. In this talk, we will share ideas being explored from fields such as network science, complexity theory, and system-of-systems modeling. Initial work on tools to support these explorations will be discussed briefly, along with ideas for future efforts.

Shelhamer, M.↗

Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) - Version 6

The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a finite-volume based general-purpose computer program for analyzing steady state and time-dependent flow rates, pressures, temperatures, and concentrations in a complex flow network. The program is capable of modeling real fluids with phase changes, compressibility, mixture thermodynamics, conjugate heat transfer between solid and fluid, fluid transients, pumps, compressors, flow control valves and external body forces such as gravity and centrifugal. The thermo-fluid system to be analyzed is discretized into nodes, branches, and conductors. The scalar properties such as pressure, temperature, and concentrations are calculated at nodes. Mass flow rates and heat transfer rates are computed in branches and conductors. The graphical user interface allows users to build their models using the 'point, drag, and click' method; the users can also run their models and post-process the results in the same environment. The integrated fluid library supplies thermodynamic and thermo-physical properties of 36 fluids, and 24 different resistance/source options are provided for modeling momentum sources or sinks in the branches. Users can introduce new physics, non-linear and time-dependent boundary conditions through user-subroutine.

Majumdar, Alok↗

Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program, Version 6.0

The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a general purpose computer program for analyzing steady state and time-dependent flow rates, pressures, temperatures, and concentrations in a complex flow network. The program is capable of modeling real fluids with phase changes, compressibility, mixture thermodynamics, conjugate heat transfer between solid and fluid, fluid transients, pumps, compressors, and external body forces such as gravity and centrifugal. The thermofluid system to be analyzed is discretized into nodes, branches, and conductors. The scalar properties such as pressure, temperature, and concentrations are calculated at nodes. Mass flow rates and heat transfer rates are computed in branches and conductors. The graphical user interface allows users to build their models using the 'point, drag, and click' method; the users can also run their models and post-process the results in the same environment. Two thermodynamic property programs (GASP/WASP and GASPAK) provide required thermodynamic and thermophysical properties for 36 fluids: helium, methane, neon, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, oxygen, argon, carbon dioxide, fluorine, hydrogen, parahydrogen, water, kerosene (RP-1), isobutene, butane, deuterium, ethane, ethylene, hydrogen sulfide, krypton, propane, xenon, R-11, R-12, R-22, R-32, R-123, R-124, R-125, R-134A, R-152A, nitrogen trifluoride, ammonia, hydrogen peroxide, and air. The program also provides the options of using any incompressible fluid with constant density and viscosity or ideal gas. The users can also supply property tables for fluids that are not in the library. Twenty-four different resistance/source options are provided for modeling momentum sources or sinks in the branches. These options include pipe flow, flow through a restriction, noncircular duct, pipe flow with entrance and/or exit losses, thin sharp orifice, thick orifice, square edge reduction, square edge expansion, rotating annular duct, rotating radial duct, labyrinth seal, parallel plates, common fittings and valves, pump characteristics, pump power, valve with a given loss coefficient, Joule-Thompson device, control valve, heat exchanger core, parallel tube, and compressible orifice. The program has the provision of including additional resistance options through User Subroutines. GFSSP employs a finite volume formulation of mass, momentum, and energy conservation equations in conjunction with the thermodynamic equations of state for real fluids as well as energy conservation equations for the solid. The system of equations describing the fluid network is solved by a hybrid numerical method that is a combination of the Newton-Raphson and successive substitution methods. The application and verification of the code has been demonstrated through 30 example problems.

Majumdar, A. K.↗

Design of a Ka-Band Propagation Terminal for Atmospheric Measurements in Polar Regions

This paper describes the design and performance of a Ka-Band beacon receiver developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) that will be installed alongside an existing Ka-Band Radiometer [2] located at the east end of the Svalbard Near Earth Network (NEN) complex. The goal of this experiment is to characterize rain fade attenuation to improve the performance of existing statistical rain attenuation models. The ground terminal developed by NASA GRC utilizes an FFT-based frequency estimation [3] receiver capable of characterizing total path attenuation effects due to gaseous absorption, clouds, rain, and scintillation by directly measuring the propagated signal from the satellite Thor 7.

propagation↗

Design of a Ka-band Propagation Terminal for Atmospheric Measurements in Polar Regions

This paper describes the design and performance of a Ka-Band beacon receiver developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) that will be installed alongside an existing Ka-Band Radiometer located at the east end of the Svalbard Near Earth Network (NEN) complex. The goal of this experiment is to characterize rain fade attenuation to improve the performance of existing statistical rain attenuation models. The ground terminal developed by NASA GRC utilizes an FFT-based frequency estimation receiver capable of characterizing total path attenuation effects due to gaseous absorption, clouds, rain, and scintillation by directly measuring the propagated signal from the satellite Thor 7.

propagation↗

Recent Advances in Discrete Crack Modeling Applied to Laminated Composites with Emphasis on: Floating Node Method, VCCT and Cohesive Zone Modeling

The present talk will provide an overview of the work performed during the Advanced Composites Project (ACP) on the development, and verification and validation of the Floating Node Method (FNM) as well as the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) and cohesive zone modeling (CZM). The FNM is a finite element-based technique to represent crack networks. The complex nature of matrix crack-delamination interactions observed in unidirectional (UD) tape laminates suggests that a methodology such as the FNM method may be required to be able to accurately simulate damage progression in these laminates. Simulating crack onset and growth within the context of the FNM relies on techniques such as VCCT and CZM. The talk is organized to provide, via select examples, an overview of the breadth of the Verification & Validation (V&V) exercises performed during the ACP, and how these challenged the state-of-the art and guided further developments in discrete crack modeling, while helping to establish confidence in the progress made and map the challenges ahead. The performance of the VCCT and CZM individually, and in combination with the FNM can be assessed through verification exercises. These exercises typically consist of a comparison of simulation results to known numerical or analytical solutions. Verification is key to identify implementation issues and limitations that, otherwise, may remain undetected and cloud any subsequent validation efforts. Indeed, a subset of these numerical exercises led to further developments of the VCCT and the FNM method as will be illustrated. Before embarking on the subsequent validation of the framework, it is critical to have adequate characterization data. However, the testing campaign conducted revealed material responses that challenged the state-of-the-art and required further developments. The developments in CZM technology associated with the modeling of the responses of hybrid interfaces (fabric/UD) will be given as an example. Finally, the talk will conclude with a summary of the validation exercises performed under quasi-static and fatigue loadings, highlighting some of the key achievements, outstanding challenges and lessons learned.

finite elements↗

Practical Battery Thermal Modeling Techniques

Lithium-ion batteries are thermo-electrochemical devices, whereby nearly every facet of their functionality and performance are thermally driven. As a result, it is important to have thermal modeling techniques that effectively capture the intricacies of both the electrochemical nature of the battery and also the complex thermal network that typically results from the design of the battery thermal management system. Here we present a thermal modeling workflow and a set of general assumptions for how to construct a thermal model of a Li-ion battery pack. We use a 14-cell bank of 18650-format Li-ion cells, loosely based on a proposed alternative battery design for Orion, as the example. Although the workflow is performed with Thermal Desktop and related utilities, the focus of this presentation is less about software specific techniques, but rather is focused on the assumptions and conditions that should be used in a model (regardless of the tool used to build the model). Example cases and results will be presented for charge, discharge, and thermal runaway.

lithium-ion battery↗

Cathode Modeling of Solid-State Batteries

The search for safe, reliable, and compact high-capacity energy storage devices has led to increased interest in all-solid-state battery research. The use of solid electrolytes provides enhanced safety and durability due to their reduced flammability and increased mechanical strength compared to organic liquid electrolytes. Still, the use of solid electrolytes remains challenging. Computational modeling plays a substantial role in addressing these challenges. A particle dynamics electromechanical model for simulating electrochemical processes in a solid-state battery cathode will be presented. The model presents cathode microstructure at the particle level as a mixture of ionically conductive solid electrolyte particles, electrically conductive carbon additives, and cathodic reactant particles. After densification, the particle connectivity is analyzed to reconstruct the complex electric network connecting reactant particles with an anodic and cathodic current collectors through the electrolyte and carbon particles. The Kirchhoff’s matrix equation describing this electric network, is solved to obtain values of various critical parameters, such as the overall conductivity of the cathode for lithium ions and electrons, cathodic reactant material utilization, and the distribution of the electric current and voltages within the cathode. In addition, by representing the reactant particles as electrolyte or galvanic microcells governed by the Butler-Volmer electrochemical equation, the overall performance of battery cells during charge or discharge processes, respectively, can be predicted for a given cathodic powder composition. The presented model, executed on a high-performance computing architecture, essentially provides a valuable guidance in designing and developing future solid-state batteries.

solid-state battery↗

Operationalizing “Wickedness” as Analytical and Creative Tools to Transform Aviation

As the world grows increasingly networked and complex, so do challenges faced by aviation and technology professionals (e.g., fighting wildfires and increasing access to healthcare). There is a need to develop new methods to tackle complex socio-technical problems relevant to aviation. The concept of “wicked” problems offers new methods and perspectives for framing complex challenges. In this paper, we present two modes of operationalizing “wickedness” used by NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project to develop transformative innovations in aviation: as an analytical, evaluative tool and a creative, generative tool. Through project examples, we demonstrate that using wickedness as a creative tool during the design process enables rich problem exploration with diverse stakeholders and reflection on how a problem is formulated, while usage as an analytical tool can provide criteria for project selection if internal agreement on the definitions of such criteria is established. Operationalizing wickedness as a creative tool may also enable organizational development of a generative mindset to better adapt to our rapidly changing future.

Robyn C Richmond↗

Operationalizing “Wickedness” as Analytical and Creative Tools to Transform Aviation

As the world grows increasingly networked and complex, so do challenges faced by aviation and technology professionals (e.g., fighting wildfires and increasing access to healthcare). There is a need to develop new methods to tackle complex socio-technical problems relevant to aviation. The concept of “wicked” problems offers new methods and perspectives for framing complex challenges. In this paper, we present two modes of operationalizing “wickedness” used by NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project to develop transformative innovations in aviation: as an analytical, evaluative tool and a creative, generative tool. Through project examples, we demonstrate that using wickedness as a creative tool during the design process enables rich problem exploration with diverse stakeholders and reflection on how a problem is formulated, while usage as an analytical tool can provide criteria for project selection if internal agreement on the definitions of such criteria is established. Operationalizing wickedness as a creative tool may also enable organizational development of a generative mindset to better adapt to our rapidly changing future.

Robyn Richmond↗

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in50 or 100 yr based on long-term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo(tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds(the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea-level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate-induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across adverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long-term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗