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NASA NTRS1988

Infrared cosmology from space

The potential scientific impact of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) on studies of high-redshift phenomena and the evolution of the universe is discussed. Several observational programs are described: (1) studies of very high redshift objects and their absorption spectra, and what they reveal about pregalactic gas and galaxy formation; (2) a large high-redshift galaxy survey for studying the evolution of galaxy clustering at z about 1 to 2; (3) generating a statistically complete catalog of several hundred gravitational lens systems; and (4) studies of the spectrum and anisotropy of the far-infrared background and what it reveals about the nature and distribution of pregalactic stars, gas, and dust.

Hogan, Craig J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Simulation of deep one- and two-dimensional redshift surveys

It is shown that slice or pencil-beam redshift surveys of galaxies can be simulated in a box with nonequal sides. This method saves a lot of computer time and memory while providing essentially the same results as from whole-cube simulations. A 2457.6/h Mpc-long rod (out to a redshift z = 0.58 in two opposite directions) is simulated using the standard biased cold dark matter model as an example to mimic the recent deep pencil-beam surveys by Broadhurst et al. (1990). The structures (spikes) seen in these simulated samples occur when the narrow pencil-beam pierces walls, filaments, and clusters appearing randomly along the line-of-sight. A statistical test for goodness of fit to a periodic lattice has been applied to the observations and the simulations. It is found that the statistical significance level (P = 15.4 percent) is not strong enough to reject the null hypothesis that the observations and the simulations were drawn at random from the same set.

Park, Changbom↗

NASA NTRS1992

The Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment

The technical features are described of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, which aims to detect a statistically significant number of microlensing events toward the Galactic bulge. Clusters of galaxies observed during the 1992 season are listed and discussed and the reduction methods are described. Future plans are addressed.

Udalski, A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Photogrammetric Analysis of CPAS Main Parachutes

The Crew Exploration Vehicle Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) is being designed to land the Orion Crew Module (CM) at a safe rate of descent at splashdown with a cluster of two to three Main parachutes. The instantaneous rate of descent varies based on parachute fly-out angles and geometric inlet area. Parachutes in a cluster oscillate between significant fly-out angles and colliding into each other. The former presents a sub-optimal inlet area and the latter lowers the effective drag area as the parachutes interfere with each other. The fly-out angles are also important in meeting a twist torque requirement. Understanding cluster behavior necessitates measuring the Mains with photogrammetric analysis. Imagery from upward looking cameras is analyzed to determine parachute geometry. Fly-out angles are measured from each parachute vent to an axis determined from geometry. Determining the scale of the objects requires knowledge of camera and lens calibration as well as features of known size. Several points along the skirt are tracked to compute an effective circumference, diameter, and inlet area as a function of time. The effects of this geometry are clearly seen in the system drag coefficient time history. Photogrammetric analysis is key in evaluating the effects of design features such as an Over-Inflation Control Line (OICL), Main Line Length Ratio (MLLR), and geometric porosity, which are varied in an attempt to minimize cluster oscillations. The effects of these designs are evaluated through statistical analysis.

Ray, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1990

Statistical significance test for transition matrices of atmospheric Markov chains

Low-frequency variability of large-scale atmospheric dynamics can be represented schematically by a Markov chain of multiple flow regimes. This Markov chain contains useful information for the long-range forecaster, provided that the statistical significance of the associated transition matrix can be reliably tested. Monte Carlo simulation yields a very reliable significance test for the elements of this matrix. The results of this test agree with previously used empirical formulae when each cluster of maps identified as a distinct flow regime is sufficiently large and when they all contain a comparable number of maps. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable way to test the statistical significance of transitions to and from small clusters. It can determine the most likely transitions, as well as the most unlikely ones, with a prescribed level of statistical significance.

Vautard, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2013

Revisiting Scaling Relations for Giant Radio Halos in Galaxy Clusters

Many galaxy clusters host megaparsec-scale radio halos, generated by ultrarelativistic electrons in the magnetized intracluster medium. Correlations between the synchrotron power of radio halos and the thermal properties of the hosting clusters were established in the last decade, including the connection between the presence of a halo and cluster mergers. The X-ray luminosity and redshift-limited Extended GMRT Radio Halo Survey provides a rich and unique dataset for statistical studies of the halos. We uniformly analyze the radio and X-ray data for the GMRT cluster sample, and use the new Planck Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) catalog to revisit the correlations between the power of radio halos and the thermal properties of galaxy clusters. We find that the radio power at 1.4 GHz scales with the cluster X-ray (0.1-2.4 keV) luminosity computed within R(sub 500) as P(sub 1.4) approx. L(2.1+/-0.2) - 500). Our bigger and more homogenous sample confirms that the X-ray luminous (L(sub 500) > 5 × 10(exp 44) erg/s)) clusters branch into two populations-radio halos lie on the correlation, while clusters without radio halos have their radio upper limits well below that correlation. This bimodality remains if we excise cool cores from the X-ray luminosities. We also find that P(sub 1.4) scales with the cluster integrated SZ signal within R(sub 500), measured by Planck, as P(sub 1.4) approx. Y(2.05+/-0.28) - 500), in line with previous findings. However, contrary to previous studies that were limited by incompleteness and small sample size, we find that "SZ-luminous" Y(sub 500) > 6×10(exp −5) Mpc(exp 2) clusters show a bimodal behavior for the presence of radio halos, similar to that in the radio-X-ray diagram. Bimodality of both correlations can be traced to clusters dynamics, with radio halos found exclusively in merging clusters. These results confirm the key role of mergers for the origin of giant radio halos, suggesting that they trigger the relativistic particle acceleration.

radiation mechanisms↗

NASA NTRS2002

Is There a Cosmological Constant?

The grant contributed to the publication of 18 refereed papers and 5 conference proceedings. The primary uses of the funding have been for page charges, travel for invited talks related to the grant research, and the support of a graduate student, Charles Keeton. The refereed papers address four of the primary goals of the proposal: (1) the statistics of radio lenses as a probe of the cosmological model (#1), (2) the role of spiral galaxies as lenses (#3), (3) the effects of dust on statistics of lenses (#7, #8), and (4) the role of groups and clusters as lenses (#2, #6, #10, #13, #15, #16). Four papers (#4, #5, #11, #12) address general issues of lens models, calibrations, and the relationship between lens galaxies and nearby galaxies. One considered cosmological effects in lensing X-ray sources (#9), and two addressed issues related to the overall power spectrum and theories of gravity (#17, #18). Our theoretical studies combined with the explosion in the number of lenses and the quality of the data obtained for them is greatly increasing our ability to characterize and understand the lens population. We can now firmly conclude both from our study of the statistics of radio lenses and our survey of extinctions in individual lenses that the statistics of optically selected quasars were significantly affected by extinction. However, the limits on the cosmological constant remain at lambda < 0.65 at a 2-sigma confidence level, which is in mild conflict with the results of the Type la supernova surveys. We continue to find that neither spiral galaxies nor groups and clusters contribute significantly to the production of gravitational lenses. The lack of group and cluster lenses is strong evidence for the role of baryonic cooling in increasing the efficiency of galaxies as lenses compared to groups and clusters of higher mass but lower central density. Unfortunately for the ultimate objective of the proposal, improved constraints on the cosmological constant, the next large survey for gravitational lenses did not release its results during the term of the proposal. The research supported the career development. of six graduate students (polar, Fletcher, Herold, Keeton, Deng and Rusin) and two post-docs (Labor and Munoz).

Kochanek, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Cosmology from Galaxy Clusters Detected Via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect

We present constraints on cosmological parameters based on a sample of Sunyaev-Zel'dovich-selected galaxy clusters detected in a millimeter-wave survey by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope. The cluster sample used in this analysis consists of 9 optically-confirmed high-mass clusters comprising the high-significance end of the total cluster sample identified in 455 square degrees of sky surveyed during 2008 at 148 GHz. We focus on the most massive systems to reduce the degeneracy between unknown cluster astrophysics and cosmology derived from SZ surveys. We describe the scaling relation between cluster mass and SZ signal with a 4-parameter fit. Marginalizing over the values of the parameters in this fit with conservative priors gives (sigma)8 = 0.851 +/- 0.115 and w = -1.14 +/- 0.35 for a spatially-flat wCDM cosmological model with WMAP 7-year priors on cosmological parameters. This gives a modest improvement in statistical uncertainty over WMAP 7-year constraints alone. Fixing the scaling relation between cluster mass and SZ signal to a fiducial relation obtained from numerical simulations and calibrated by X-ray observations, we find (sigma)8 + 0.821 +/- 0.044 and w = -1.05 +/- 0.20. These results are consistent with constraints from WMAP 7 plus baryon acoustic oscillations plus type Ia supernova which give (sigma)8 = 0.802 +/- 0.038 and w = -0.98 +/- 0.053. A stacking analysis of the clusters in this sample compared to clusters simulated assuming the fiducial model also shows good agreement. These results suggest that, given the sample of clusters used here, both the astrophysics of massive clusters and the cosmological parameters derived from them are broadly consistent with current models.

Sehgal, Neelima↗

NASA NTRS1975

The use of unsupervised clustering as a classifier for LACIE MSS data

The author has identified the following significant results. This classification method appears to give accurate field center results and to give practical, statistically consistent and accurate estimates of crop proportions. The accuracy of this method is attributable to certain qualities of the particular clustering algorithm. These qualities are freedom from assumptions about Gaussian data, and the continual updating of distribution estimates, including updating the number of modes. This method is relatively tolerant of errors in the determination of crop type, as crop identity is used only for identifying clusters, and not for computing signatures.

Pentland, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Triple interactions involving close binaries in globular clusters

The interaction of a circularized tidal binary system with a third star is studied statistically through the results of about 70,000 numerical scattering experiments. The stars involved are taken to be identical polytropes, with radii equal to one-third of the initial binary separation. The effects of nonzero stellar radii are included by calculating an approximation to the energy dissipated by tidal interactions and estimating the energy lost through physical collisions. These are then used to modify the interaction cross sections obtained in the point-mass approximation. It is found that, for a wide range of assumptions about the details of the triple interactions and the stars' structure, the net rate at which tidal binaries heat the stellar system is substantially reduced (by as much as a factor of 20) below that obtained when the binaries are treated simply as point masses. The most likely outcome of a triple encounter is the coalescence of two, or all three, of the stars involved.

Mcmillan, S. L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Multivariate statistical analysis: Principles and applications to coorbital streams of meteorite falls

Multivariate statistical analysis techniques (linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression) can provide powerful discrimination tools which are generally unfamiliar to the planetary science community. Fall parameters were used to identify a group of 17 H chondrites (Cluster 1) that were part of a coorbital stream which intersected Earth's orbit in May, from 1855 - 1895, and can be distinguished from all other H chondrite falls. Using multivariate statistical techniques, it was demonstrated that a totally different criterion, labile trace element contents - hence thermal histories - or 13 Cluster 1 meteorites are distinguishable from those of 45 non-Cluster 1 H chondrites. Here, we focus upon the principles of multivariate statistical techniques and illustrate their application using non-meteoritic and meteoritic examples.

Wolf, S. F.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extensions to models of the galaxy–halo connection

ABSTRACT We explore two widely used empirical models for the galaxy–halo connection, subhalo abundance matching (SHAM) and the halo occupation distribution (HOD), and compare them with the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG (TNG) for multiple statistics quantifying the galaxy distribution at $n_{\rm gal}\approx 1.3\times 10^{-3}\, ({\rm Mpc}\,h^{-1})^{-3}$. We observe that in their most straightforward implementations, both models fail to reproduce the two-point clustering measured in TNG. We find that SHAM models that use the relaxation velocity, Vrelax, and the peak velocity, Vpeak, perform best, and match the clustering reasonably well, although neither captures adequately the one-halo clustering. Splitting the total sample into sub-populations, we discover that SHAM overpredicts the clustering of high-mass, blue, star-forming, and late-forming galaxies and underpredicts that of low-mass, red, quiescent, and early-forming galaxies. We also study various baryonic effects, finding that subhaloes in the dark-matter-only simulation have consistently higher values of their SHAM-proxy properties than their full-physics counterparts. We then consider a 2D implementation of the HOD model augmented with a secondary parameter (environment, velocity anisotropy, σ2Rhalf-mass, and total potential) tuned so as to match the two-point clustering of the IllustrisTNG galaxies on large scales. We analyse these galaxy populations adopting alternative statistical tools such as galaxy–galaxy lensing, void–galaxy cross-correlations, and cumulants of the density field, finding that the hydrodynamical galaxy distribution disfavours σ2Rhalf-mass and the total potential as secondary parameters, while the environment and velocity anisotropy samples are consistent with full physics across all statistical probes examined. Our results demonstrate the power of examining multiple statistics for determining the secondary parameters that are vital for understanding the galaxy–halo connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Facilitating Navigation Through Large Archives

Automated Visual Access (AVA) is a computer program that effectively makes a large collection of information visible in a manner that enables a user to quickly and efficiently locate information resources, with minimal need for conventional keyword searches and perusal of complex hierarchical directory systems. AVA includes three key components: (1) a taxonomy that comprises a collection of words and phrases, clustered according to meaning, that are used to classify information resources; (2) a statistical indexing and scoring engine; and (3) a component that generates a graphical user interface that uses the scoring data to generate a visual map of resources and topics. The top level of an AVA display is a pictorial representation of an information archive. The user enters the depicted archive by either clicking on a depiction of subject area cluster, selecting a topic from a list, or entering a query into a text box. The resulting display enables the user to view candidate information entities at various levels of detail. Resources are grouped spatially by topic with greatest generality at the top layer and increasing detail with depth. The user can zoom in or out of specific sites or into greater or lesser content detail.

Shelton, Robert O.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A forward modeling approach to analyzing galaxy clustering with S IM BIG

We present cosmological constraints from a simulation-based inference (SBI) analysis of galaxy clustering from the SimBIG forward modeling framework. SimBIG leverages the predictive power of high-fidelity simulations and provides an inference framework that can extract cosmological information on small nonlinear scales. In this work, we apply SimBIG to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) CMASS galaxy sample and analyze the power spectrum, P ℓ (k), to k max = 0.5 h/Mpc. We construct 20,000 simulated galaxy samples using our forward model, which is based on 2,000 high-resolution Quijote N -body simulations and includes detailed survey realism for a more complete treatment of observational systematics. We then conduct SBI by training normalizing flows using the simulated samples and infer the posterior distribution of ΛCDM cosmological parameters: Ω m , Ω b , h, n s , σ 8 . We derive significant constraints on Ω m and σ 8 , which are consistent with previous works. Our constraint on σ 8 is 27% more precise than standard P ℓ analyses because we exploit additional cosmological information on nonlinear scales beyond the limit of current analytic models, k > 0.25 h/Mpc. This improvement is equivalent to the statistical gain expected from a standard P ℓ analysis of galaxy sample ~ 60% larger than CMASS. While we focus on P ℓ in this work for validation and comparison to the literature, SimBIG provides a framework for analyzing galaxy clustering using any summary statistic. We expect further improvements on cosmological constraints from subsequent SimBIG analyses of summary statistics beyond P ℓ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI DR2 measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations from galaxies and quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) galaxy and quasar clustering data represents a significant expansion of data from Data Release 1 (DR1), providing improved statistical precision in baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) constraints across multiple tracers, including bright galaxies, luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and quasars. In this paper, we validate the BAO analysis of DR2. We present the results of robustness tests on the blinded DR2 data and, after unblinding, consistency checks on the unblinded DR2 data. All results are compared with those obtained from a suite of mock catalogs that replicate the selection and clustering properties of the DR2 sample. We confirm the consistency of DR2 BAO measurements with DR1 while achieving a reduction in statistical uncertainties due to the increased survey volume and completeness. The combined BAO precision, including both statistical and systematic errors, improves from ∼0.52% in DR1 to 0.30% in DR2—a factor of 1.7 gain. We assess the impact of analysis choices, including different data vectors (correlation function vs power spectrum), modeling approaches and systematics treatments, and an assumption of the Gaussian likelihood, finding that our BAO constraints are stable across these variations and assumptions with a few minor refinements to the baseline setup of the DR1 BAO analysis. We summarize a series of pre-unblinding tests that confirmed the readiness of our analysis pipeline, the final systematic errors, and the DR2 BAO analysis baseline. The successful completion of these tests led to the unblinding of the DR2 BAO measurements, ultimately leading to the DESI DR2 cosmological analysis, with their implications for the expansion history of the Universe and the nature of dark energy presented in the DESI key paper (companion paper).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Improved Test Planning and Analysis Through the Use of Advanced Statistical Methods

The goal of this work is, through computational simulations, to provide statistically-based evidence to convince the testing community that a distributed testing approach is superior to a clustered testing approach for most situations. For clustered testing, numerous, repeated test points are acquired at a limited number of test conditions. For distributed testing, only one or a few test points are requested at many different conditions. The statistical techniques of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methods (RSM) are applied to enable distributed test planning, data analysis and test augmentation. The D-Optimal class of DOE is used to plan an optimally efficient single- and multi-factor test. The resulting simulated test data are analyzed via ANOVA and a parametric model is constructed using RSM. Finally, ANOVA can be used to plan a second round of testing to augment the existing data set with new data points. The use of these techniques is demonstrated through several illustrative examples. To date, many thousands of comparisons have been performed and the results strongly support the conclusion that the distributed testing approach outperforms the clustered testing approach.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Glueballs at physical pion mass

Glueballs are investigated through gluonic operators on two $ N_f=2+1 $ RBC/UKQCD gauge ensembles at the physical pion mass. The statistical errors of glueball correlation functions are considerably reduced through the cluster decomposition error reduction (CDER) method. The Bethe-Salpeter wave functions are obtained for the scalar, tensor, and pseudoscalar glueballs by using spatially extended glueball operators defined through the gauge potential $ A_\mu(x) $ in the Coulomb gauge. These wave functions exhibit similar features of non-relativistic two-gluon systems and are used to optimize the signals of the related correlation functions at the early time regions, where the ground state masses are extracted. These masses are close to those from the quenched approximation and indicate the possible existence of glueballs at the physical point. The resonance feature of glueballs and the mixing with conventional mesons and multi-hadron systems should be considered in a more systematic lattice study.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗