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At least 397 records · Page 22

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Light absorption enhancement of black carbon in a pyrocumulonimbus cloud

Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) firestorm systems have been shown to inject significant amounts of black carbon (BC) to the stratosphere with a residence time of several months. Injected BC warms the local stratospheric air, consequently perturbing transport and hence spatial distributions of ozone and water vapor. A distinguishing feature of BC-containing particles residing within pyroCb smoke is their thick surface coatings made of condensed organic matter. When coated with non-refractory materials, BC’s absorption is enhanced, yet the absorption enhancement factor ( E abs ) for pyroCb BC is not well constrained. Here, we perform particle-scale measurements of BC mass, morphology, and coating thickness from inside a pyroCb cloud and quantify E abs using an established particle-resolved BC optics model. We find that the population-averaged E abs for BC asymptotes to 2.0 with increasing coating thickness. This value denotes the upper limit of E abs for thickly coated BC in the atmosphere. Our results provide observationally constrained parameterizations of BC absorption for improved radiative transfer calculations of pyroCb events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Removing numerical pathologies in a turbulence parameterization through convergence testing

Discretized numerical models of the atmosphere are usually intended to faithfully represent an underlying set of continuous equations, but this necessary condition is violated sometimes by subtle pathologies that have crept into the discretized equations. Such pathologies can introduce undesirable artifacts, such as sawtooth noise, into the model solutions. The presence of these pathologies can be detected by numerical convergence testing. This study employs convergence testing to verify the discretization of the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) model of clouds and turbulence. That convergence testing identifies two aspects of CLUBB's equation set that contribute to undesirable noise in the solutions. First, numerical limiters (i.e. clipping) used by CLUBB introduce discontinuities or slope discontinuities in model fields. Second, this noise can be amplified by an advective term in CLUBB's background diffusion. Smoothing the limiters and removing the advective component of the background diffusion reduces the noise and restores the expected first-order convergence in CLUBB's solutions. These model reformulations improve the results at coarser, near-operational grid spacing and time step in cumulus cloud and dry turbulence tests. In addition, convergence testing is proved to be a valuable tool for detecting pathologies, including unintended discontinuities and grid dependence, in the model equation set.

Mathematics and Computing, Geosciences↗

Global ocean dimethyl sulfide climatology estimated from observations and an artificial neural network

Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is important to climate due to the ability of DMS to alter Earth's radiation budget. Knowledge of the global-scale distribution, seasonal variability, and sea-to-air flux of DMS is needed in order to improve understanding of atmospheric sulfur, aerosol/cloud dynamics, and albedo. Here we examine the use of an artificial neural network (ANN) to extrapolate available DMS measurements to the global ocean and produce a global climatology with monthly temporal resolution. A global database of 82 996 ship-based DMS measurements in surface waters was used along with a suite of environmental parameters consisting of latitude–longitude coordinates, time of day, time of year, solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. Linear regressions of DMS against the environmental parameters show that on a global-scale mixed layer depth and solar radiation are the strongest predictors of DMS. These parameters capture ~9 % and ~7 % of the raw DMS data variance, respectively. Multilinear regression can capture more of the raw data variance (~39 %) but strongly underestimates DMS in high-concentration regions. In contrast, the artificial neural network captures ~66 % of the raw data variance in our database. Like prior climatologies our results show a strong seasonal cycle in surface ocean DMS with the highest concentrations and sea-to-air fluxes in the high-latitude summertime oceans. We estimate a lower global sea-to-air DMS flux (20.12±0.43 Tg S yr –1 ) than the prior estimate based on a map interpolation method when the same gas transfer velocity parameterization is used. Our sensitivity test results show that DMS concentration does not change unidirectionally with each of the environmental parameters, which emphasizes the interactions among these parameters. The ANN model suggests that the flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere will increase with global warming. Given that larger DMS fluxes induce greater cloud albedo, this corresponds to a negative climate feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On CCN Effects upon Convective Cold Pool Timing and Features

Abstract Cold pools produced by deep convection can initiate new convection, and their representation in larger-scale weather and climate models could improve prediction of the extent and timing of upscale growth. Cold pools originate from latent cooling from precipitation changing phase, but little attention has been paid to microphysical influences on cold pool characteristics, particularly CCN effects. Datasets obtained from the CACTI and RELAMPAGO field campaigns, along with idealized numerical modeling, are utilized to investigate the hypothesis that convective storms forming in higher-CCN environments generate their first surface rainfall later, delaying cold pool initiation. Aircraft observations of CCN and shallow convection on 9 days do suggest a CCN effect. Those ingesting more CCN contained fewer drizzle drops, although a decreased cloud depth with increasing CCN was also likely a limiting factor. In three of those cases that later developed into deep convection, the timing of cold pool onset was not ubiquitously delayed in environments with more CCN. Idealized numerical simulations suggest that an ordinary thunderstorm can experience small delays in cold pool onset with increasing CCN due to changes in graupel production, but CCN effects on the cold pool from a supercell thunderstorm can be easily overpowered by its unique dynamics. A strong inverse relationship between cold pool strength, expansion rate, and depth with increasing CCN is suggested by the results of the ordinary thunderstorm simulation. Further consideration of CCN appears warranted for future cold pool parameterization development, but other environmental factors affecting storm morphology and precipitation cannot be ignored.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Wind-driven emissions of coarse-mode particles in an urban environment

Abstract. Quantifying surface–atmosphere exchange rates of particles is important for understanding the role of suspended particulate matter in radiative transfer, clouds, precipitation, and climate change. Emissions of coarse-mode particles with a diameter greater than 0.5 µm provide giant cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. These emissions are critical for understanding the evolution of cloud microphysical properties yet remain poorly understood. Here we introduce a new method that uses lidar retrievals of the elastic backscatter and Doppler velocity to obtain surface number emissions of particles with a diameter greater than 0.53 µm. The technique is applied to study particle number fluxes over a 2-month period from 1 June to 10 August 2022 during the TRACER campaign at an urban site near Houston, TX, USA. We found that all the observed fluxes were positive (upwards), indicating particle emission from the surface. The fluxes followed a diurnal pattern and peaked near noon local time. Flux intensity varied through the 2 months with multi-day periods of strong fluxes and multi-day periods of weak fluxes. Emission particle number fluxes peaked near ∼ 100 cm−2 s−1. The daily averaged emission fluxes correlated with friction velocity and were anticorrelated with surface relative humidity. The emission flux can be parameterized as F= 3000 u*4, where u* is the friction velocity in m s−1 and the emission flux F is in cm−2 s−1. The u* dependence is consistent with emission from wind-driven erosion. Estimated values for the mass flux are in the lower range of literature values from non-urban sites. These results demonstrate that urban environments may play an important role in supplying coarse-mode particles to the boundary layer. We anticipate that quantification of these emissions will help constrain aerosol–cloud interaction models that use prognostic aerosol schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Substantially positive contributions of new particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei under low supersaturation in China based on numerical model improvements

New particle formation (NPF) and subsequent particle growth are important sources of condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). While many observations have shown positive contributions of NPF to CCN at low supersaturation, negative NPF contributions were often simulated in polluted environments. Using the observations in a coastal city of Qingdao, Beijing, and Gucheng in north China, we thoroughly evaluate the simulated number concentrations of CN and CCN using an NPF-explicit parameterization embedded in the WRF-Chem model. For CN, the initial simulation shows large biases of particle number concentrations at 10–40 and 40–100 nm. By adjusting the process of gas–particle partitioning, including the mass accommodation coefficient (MAC) of sulfuric acid, the phase changes in primary organic aerosol emissions, and the condensational amount of nitric acid, the improvement of the particle growth process yields substantially reduced overestimation of CN. Regarding CCN, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from the oxidation of semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (S/IVOCs) is called SI-SOA, the yield of which is an important contributor. At default settings, the SI-SOA yield is too high without considering the differences in precursor oxidation rates. Lowering the SI-SOA yield under linear H 2 SO 4 nucleation scheme results in much-improved CCN simulations compared to observations. On the basis of the bias-corrected model, we find substantially positive contributions of NPF to CCN at low supersaturation (~ 0.2 %) over broad areas of China, primarily due to competing effects of increasing particle hygroscopicity, a result of reductions in SI-SOA amount, surpassing that of particle size decreases. The bias-corrected model is robustly applicable to other schemes, such as the quadratic H 2 SO 4 nucleation scheme, in terms of CN and CCN, though the dependence of CCN on SI-SOA yield is diminished likely due to changes in particle composition. This study highlights potentially much larger NPF contributions to CCN on a regional and even global basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining the Impacts of Microphysical-Dynamical Feedbacks on Convective Clouds in Different Aerosol Environments Using Enhanced Observational and Modeling Strategies

This project investigated how microphysical–dynamical feedbacks influence deep convective clouds across a range of aerosol conditions, storm lifecycles, and meteorological regimes, and how these sensitivities depend on the modeling framework used to represent convection and microphysics. Using the Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Climate (ACPC) Working Group model intercomparison simulations of isolated deep convection in the Houston region, we found a robust warm-phase aerosol response in most cloud-resolving models. Increased aerosol loading tended to suppress warm-rain production, increase cloud water, and reduce surface rainfall and near-surface evaporation. These impacts were typically strongest early in the convective lifecycle, with the largest aerosol-driven differences occurring during the first half of storm evolution. The ice-phase response, on the other hand, varied widely across modeling frameworks, and differed in sign, timing, and vertical structure. Ice microphysical pathways and parameterizations are therefore leading sources of uncertainty in aerosol–deep convection interactions. Theoretical analyses further suggested that aerosol-driven invigoration through cold-phase processes was much weaker than previously hypothesized for cold-based storms, and in warm-based storms could even reduce updraft strength. These results imply that any invigoration signal is more likely linked to warm-phase processes and peaks early in storm development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols have important impacts on air quality and the Earth–atmospheric energy balance. However, as computing power is limited, Earth system models generally use coarse spatial grids and parameterize finer-scale atmospheric processes. These parameterizations and the simulation of atmospheric aerosols are often sensitive to model horizontal resolutions. Understanding the sensitivities is necessary for the development of Earth system models at higher resolutions with the deployment of more powerful supercomputers. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1, this study investigates the impact of horizontal grid spacing on the simulated aerosol mass budget, aerosol–cloud interactions, and the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) over the contiguous United States. We examine the resolution sensitivity by comparing the nudged simulation results for 2016 from the low-resolution model (LR) and the regional refinement model (RRM). As expected, the simulated emissions of natural dust, sea salt, and marine organic matter are substantially higher in the RRM than in the LR. In addition, RRM simulates stronger aqueous-phase production of sulfate through the enhanced oxidation of sulfur dioxide by hydrogen peroxide due to increased cloud liquid water content. In contrast, the gas-phase chemical production of sulfate is slightly suppressed. The RRM resolves more large-scale precipitation and produces less convective precipitation than the LR, leading to increased (decreased) aerosol wet scavenging by large-scale (convective) precipitation. Regarding aerosol effects on clouds, RRM produces larger temporal variabilities in the large-scale liquid cloud fractions than LR, resulting in increased microphysical cloud processing of aerosols (more interstitial aerosols are converted to cloud-borne aerosols via aerosol activation) in RRM. Water vapor condensation is also enhanced in RRM compared to LR. Consequently, the RRM simulation produces more cloud droplets, a larger cloud droplet radius, a higher liquid water path, and a larger cloud optical depth than the LR simulation. A comparison of the present-day and pre-industrial simulations indicates that, for this contiguous United States domain, the higher-resolution increases ERFaer at the top of the model by about 12 %, which is mainly attributed to the strengthened indirect effect associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Description of the Three-Dimensional Large-Scale Forcing Data from the 3D Constrained Variational Analysis (VARANAL3D)

This technical report introduces a Three-Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis (3DCVA) (Tang and Zhang 2015) and its product of three-dimensional large-scale forcing data to drive single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM), and large-eddy simulation (LES) models, and to evaluate model results. The 3DCVA algorithm is an extension of the original 1D constrained variational analysis (1DCVA) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001). The three-dimensional structure of the forcing data allows studies of spatial variation of the large-scale forcing fields and tests of physical parameterizations across scales. In the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, the 3D forcing data are assigned the datastream name varanal3d. In this technical report, 3DCVA will be used to refer to the algorithm, while VARANAL3D will be used to refer to the data product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convection–Kelvin Wave Coupling in a Global Convection-Permitting Model

A convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin wave (CCKW) was observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean in early November 2011 during the DYNAMO field campaign. This study examines the structure of the CCKW event using two simulations made using the MPAS model: one with 3-km grid spacing without convective parameterization and another with a 15-km grid and parameterized convection. Both simulations qualitatively capture the observed structure of the CCKW, including its vertical tilt and progression of cloud/precipitation structures. The two simulations, however, differ substantially in the amplitude of the CCKW-associated precipitation. While the 3-km run realistically captures the observed modulation of precipitation by the CCKW, the 15-km simulation severely underestimates its magnitude. To understand the difference between the two MPAS simulations regarding wave–convection coupling within the CCKW, the relationship of precipitation with convective inhibition, saturation fraction, and surface turbulent fluxes is investigated. Results show that the 15-km simulation underestimates the magnitude of the CCKW precipitation peak in association with its unrealistically linear relationship between moisture and precipitation. Precipitation, both in observations and the 3-km run, is predominantly controlled by saturation fraction and this relationship is exponential. In contrast, the parameterized convection in the 15-km run is overly sensitive to convective inhibition and not sensitive enough to environmental moisture. The implications of these results on CCKW theories are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement report: A comparison of ground-level ice-nucleating-particle abundance and aerosol properties during autumn at contrasting marine and terrestrial locations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are an essential class of aerosols found worldwide that have far-reaching but poorly quantified climate feedback mechanisms through interaction with clouds and impacts on precipitation. These particles can have highly variable physicochemical properties in the atmosphere, and it is crucial to continuously monitor their long-term concentration relative to total ambient aerosol populations at a wide variety of sites to comprehensively understand aerosol–cloud interactions in the atmosphere. Hence, our study applied an in situ forced expansion cooling device to measure ambient INP concentrations and test its automated continuous measurements at atmospheric observatories, where complementary aerosol instruments are heavily equipped. Using collocated aerosol size, number, and composition measurements from these sites, we analyzed the correlation between sources and abundance of INPs in different environments. Toward this aim, we have measured ground-level INP concentrations at two contrasting sites, one in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) region of the United States with a substantial terrestrially influenced aerosol population and one in the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean (ENA) region with a primarily marine-influenced aerosol population. These measurements examined INPs mainly formed through immersion freezing and were performed at a ≤ 12 min resolution and with a wide range of heterogeneous freezing temperatures (Ts above −31 °C) for at least 45 d at each site. The associated INP data analysis was conducted in a consistent manner. We also explored the additional offline characterization of ambient aerosol particle samples from both locations in comparison to in situ data. From our ENA data, on average, INP abundance ranges from ≈ 1 to ≈ 20 L−1 (−30 °C ≤ T ≤ −20 °C) during October–November 2020. Backward air mass trajectories reveal a strong marine influence at ENA with 75.7 % of air masses originating over the Atlantic Ocean and 96.6 % of air masses traveling over open water, but analysis of particle chemistry suggests an additional INP source besides maritime aerosols (e.g., sea spray aerosols) at ENA. In contrast, 90.8 % of air masses at the SGP location originated from the North American continent, and 96.1 % of the time, these air masses traveled over land. As a result, organic-rich SGP aerosols from terrestrial sources exhibited notably high INP abundance from ≈ 1 to ≈ 100 L−1 (−30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C) during October–November 2019. The probability density function of aerosol surface area-scaled immersion freezing efficiency (ice nucleation active surface site density; ns) was assessed for selected freezing temperatures. While the INP concentrations measured at SGP are higher than those of ENA, the ns(T) values of SGP (≈ 105 to ≈ 107 m−2 for −30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C) are reciprocally lower than ENA for approximately 2 orders of magnitude (≈ 107 to ≈ 109 m−2 for −30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C). The observed difference in ns(T) mainly stems from varied available aerosol surface areas, Saer, from two sites (Saer,SGP > Saer,ENA). INP parameterizations were developed as a function of examined freezing temperatures from SGP and ENA for our study periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduction of Pacific Double‐ITCZ Bias by Convection Parameterization in NCAR CESM2.2

Abstract The impact of convective closure on the double‐ITCZ bias in the NCAR CESM2.2 is investigated in this study. The standard CESM2.2 simulates a remarkable double‐ITCZ bias in the central and eastern Pacific, especially in boreal winter and spring. Modifications to the closure in convection parameterization scheme greatly reduce the double‐ITCZ bias in all seasons, demonstrating that convection parameterization can substantially influence the double‐ITCZ bias in CESM2.2. Further analyses suggest that convection parameterization can modulate the tropical atmosphere‐ocean feedback processes, through which it influences the SST in the southern ITCZ region and hence the double‐ITCZ bias. The changes in the upper ocean temperature advection induced by modified convective closure plays important roles in reducing the warm SST bias and double‐ITCZ precipitation bias in the southern ITCZ region. The modified convective closure improves the low‐level cloud and shortwave cloud radiative forcing in the southeastern Pacific. However, surface heat flux plays only a limited role in reducing warm SST bias and double ITCZ bias because the impacts of shortwave radiation changes are largely canceled by changes in longwave radiation and latent heat flux.

Song, Xiaoliang [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

Recent advances in integrated hydrologic models: Integration of new domains

Over the past several decades, hydrologic models have advanced from independent models of the surface and subsurface to integrated models that can capture the terrestrial hydrologic cycle within one framework. In recent years, these coupled frameworks have seen the inclusion of biogeochemical processes, ecohydrology, sedimentation and erosion, cold region hydrology, anthropogenic activities, and atmospheric processes. This expansion is the result of increased computational, data, and modeling capabilities and capacities, as well as improved understanding of the processes that drive these integrated systems. Here, in this study, we review these recent advances to integrate new processes and systems into existing terrestrial hydrologic models and highlight the significant challenges and opportunities that remain. We identify that with so many models currently available and in development, selecting the most appropriate model is difficult, and we suggest a path for new or novice modelers to find the most appropriate code based on their needs. In addition, data required to parameterize and calibrate these models can often constrain their applicability and usefulness. However, advances in environmental sensors and measurement technology, in addition to data assimilation of non-traditional data (e.g. remote sensing, qualitative data) are providing new ways of addressing this issue. As we expand hydrologic models to integrate more processes and systems, our computational demands also increase. Recent and emerging advances in computational platforms, including cloud and quantum computing, in addition to the use of machine learning to capture some processes, will continue to support the use of increasingly larger and more complex, process-based models. Finally, we highlight that it is critical to develop state-of-the-science models that are accessible to all model users, not just those applied for research and development. We encourage continued development of diverse modeling platforms, considering the user needs, data availability, and computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representing surface heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling in E3SMv1 single-column model over ARM SGP during summertime

Abstract. The Earth's land surface features spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a wide range of scales below those resolved by current Earth system models (ESMs). State-of-the-art land and atmosphere models employ parameterizations to represent their subgrid heterogeneity, but the land–atmosphere coupling in ESMs typically operates on the grid scale. Communicating the information on the land surface heterogeneity with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains a challenge in modeling land–atmosphere interactions. In order to account for the subgrid-scale heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling, we implement a new coupling scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth system model version 1 (E3SMv1) that uses adjusted surface variances and covariance of potential temperature and specific water content as the lower boundary condition for the atmosphere model. The new lower boundary condition accounts for both the variability of individual subgrid land surface patches and the inter-patch variability. The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) simulations over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) site were performed to assess the impacts. We find that the new coupling parameterization increases the magnitude and diurnal cycle of the temperature variance and humidity variance in the lower ABL on non-precipitating days. The impacts are primarily attributed to subgrid inter-patch variability rather than the variability of individual patches. These effects extend vertically from the surface to several levels in the lower ABL on clear days. We also find that accounting for surface heterogeneity increases low cloud cover and liquid water path (LWP). These cloud changes are associated with the change in cloud regime indicated by the skewness of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity. In precipitating days, the inter-patch variability reduces significantly so that the impact of accounting for surface heterogeneity vanishes. These results highlight the importance of accounting for subgrid heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling in next-generation ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Perspectives on AI Architectures and Codesign for Earth System Predictability

Abstract Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, laboratory, modeling, and analysis activities, called model experimentation (ModEx). BER’s ModEx is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the AI Architectures and Codesign session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Codesign session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including 1) DOE high-performance computing (HPC) systems, 2) cloud HPC systems, and 3) edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this codesign area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as 1) reimagining codesign, 2) data acquisition to distribution, 3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with Earth system modeling and simulation, and 4) AI-enabled sensor integration into Earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper. Significance Statement This study aims to provide perspectives on AI architectures and codesign approaches for Earth system predictability. Such visionary perspectives are essential because AI-enabled model-data integration has shown promise in improving predictions associated with climate change, perturbations, and extreme events. Our forward-looking ideas guide what is next in codesign to enhance Earth system models, observations, and theory using state-of-the-art and futuristic computational infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗