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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Tree mortality during long-term droughts is lower in structurally complex forest stands

Increasing drought frequency and severity in a warming climate threaten forest ecosystems with widespread tree deaths. Canopy structure is important in regulating tree mortality during drought, but how it functions remains controversial. Here, we show that the interplay between tree size and forest structure explains drought-induced tree mortality during the 2012-2016 California drought. Through an analysis of over one million trees, we find that tree mortality rate follows a “negative-positive-negative” piecewise relationship with tree height, and maintains a consistent negative relationship with neighborhood canopy structure (a measure of tree competition). Trees overshadowed by tall neighboring trees experienced lower mortality, likely due to reduced exposure to solar radiation load and lower water demand from evapotranspiration. Our findings demonstrate the significance of neighborhood canopy structure in influencing tree mortality and suggest that re-establishing heterogeneity in canopy structure could improve drought resiliency. Our study also indicates the potential of advances in remote-sensing technologies for silvicultural design, supporting the transition to multi-benefit forest management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Newly identified sex chromosomes in the Sphagnum (peat moss) genome alter carbon sequestration and ecosystem dynamics

Peatlands are crucial sinks for atmospheric carbon but are critically threatened due to warming climates. Sphagnum (peat moss) species are keystone members of peatland communities where they actively engineer hyperacidic conditions, which improves their competitive advantage and accelerates ecosystem-level carbon sequestration. To dissect the molecular and physiological sources of this unique biology, we generated chromosome-scale genomes of two Sphagnum species: S. divinum and S. angustifolium. Sphagnum genomes show no gene colinearity with any other reference genome to date, demonstrating that Sphagnum represents an unsampled lineage of land plant evolution. The genomes also revealed an average recombination rate an order of magnitude higher than vascular land plants and short putative U/V sex chromosomes. These newly described sex chromosomes interact with autosomal loci that significantly impact growth across diverse pH conditions. This discovery demonstrates that the ability of Sphagnum to sequester carbon in acidic peat bogs is mediated by interactions between sex, autosomes and environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Threatened salmon rely on a rare life history strategy in a warming landscape

We report that rare phenotypes and behaviours within a population are often overlooked, yet they may serve a heightened role for species imperilled by rapid warming. In threatened spring-run Chinook salmon spawning at the southern edge of the species range, we show late-migrating juveniles are critical to cohort success in years characterized by droughts and ocean heatwaves. Late migrants rely on cool river temperatures over summer, increasingly rare due to the combined effects of warming and impassable dams. Despite the dominance of late migrants, other strategies played an important role in many years. Our results suggest that further loss of phenotypic diversity will have critical impacts on population persistence in a warming climate. Predicted thermally suitable river conditions for late migrants will shrink rapidly in the future and will be largely relegated above impassable dams. Reconnecting diverse habitat mosaics to support phenotypic diversity will be integral to the long-term persistence of this species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate-driven divergence in plant-microbiome interactions generates range-wide variation in bud break phenology

Soil microbiomes are rapidly becoming known as an important driver of plant phenotypic variation and may mediate plant responses to environmental factors. However, integrating spatial scales relevant to climate change with plant intraspecific genetic variation and soil microbial ecology is difficult, making studies of broad inference rare. Here we hypothesize and show: 1) the degree to which tree genotypes condition their soil microbiomes varies by population across the geographic distribution of a widespread riparian tree, Populus angustifolia; 2) geographic dissimilarity in soil microbiomes among populations is influenced by both abiotic and biotic environmental variation; and 3) soil microbiomes that vary in response to abiotic and biotic factors can change plant foliar phenology. We show soil microbiomes respond to intraspecific variation at the tree genotype and population level, and geographic variation in soil characteristics and climate. Using a fully reciprocal plant population by soil location feedback experiment, we identified a climate-based soil microbiome effect that advanced and delayed bud break phenology by approximately 10 days. These results demonstrate a landscape-level feedback between tree populations and associated soil microbial communities and suggest soil microbes may play important roles in mediating and buffering bud break phenology with climate warming, with whole ecosystem implications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean

In a warming climate, the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (GMOC) is expected to change significantly with a risk of disrupting the global redistribution of ocean properties that sustains marine ecosystems, carbon cycle, and others. Here we make a novel attempt to utilize a diagnostic ocean & sea-ice model to estimate the GMOC and its interdecadal changes since the mid-1950s that are consistent with historical hydrographic observations. We find that significant changes in the GMOC have already occurred, most notably in the upper and lower overturning cells in the Southern Ocean. The former has expanded poleward and into denser water and strengthened by 3–4 Sv since the mid-1970s, while the latter has contracted and weakened by a similar rate during the same period. These changes are driven by the increasing Southern Hemisphere (SH) Ferrel cell and associated increases in the westerlies and the surface buoyancy loss over its sinking branch, and the increasing Antarctic meltwater discharge, in response to ozone depletion in the SH stratosphere and increasing atmospheric CO 2 . A large-scale readjustment of the GMOC seems to be underway in the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans since the mid-2000s in response to the Southern Ocean changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Direct evidence for the role of microbial community composition in the formation of soil organic matter composition and persistence

The largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth is soil carbon stocks. As the climate changes, the rate at which the Earth’s climate warms depends in part on the persistence of soil organic carbon. Microbial turnover forms the backbone of soil organic matter (SOM) formation and it has been recently proposed that SOM molecular complexity is a key driver of stability. Despite this, the links between microbial diversity, chemical complexity and biogeochemical nature of SOM remain missing. Here we tested the hypotheses that distinct microbial communities shape the composition of SOM, and microbial-derived SOM has distinct decomposition potential depending on its community of origin. We inoculated microbial communities of varying diversities into a model soil matrix amended with simple carbon (cellobiose) and measured the thermal stability of the resultant SOM. Using a Rock-Eval ® ramped thermal analysis, we found that microbial community composition drives the chemical fingerprint of soil carbon. While diversity was not a driver of SOM composition, bacteria-only communities lead to more thermally labile soil C pools than communities with bacteria and fungi. Our results provide direct evidence for a link between microbial community structure, SOM composition, and thermal stability. This evidence demonstrates the relevance of soil microorganisms in building persistent SOM stocks.

Domeignoz-Horta, Luiz A. (ORCID:0000000346186253)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Latitudinal gradient in the respiration quotient and the implications for ocean oxygen availability

Significance The loss of ocean oxygen caused by climate warming is a serious environmental issue and could lead to major declines in animal habitats. However, current Earth system models struggle in explaining observed trends in global ocean oxygen. Using a model, we demonstrate that marine oxygen concentrations depend sensitively on a rarely considered quantity known as the respiration quotient to prescribe the oxygen consumed per mole of organic carbon respired. Using a combination of direct chemical measurements across major biomes in the eastern Pacific Ocean plus changes in the global distribution of oxygen and carbon, we show how the respiration quotient increases systematically with temperature. The findings imply that we can experience more intense declines in ocean oxygen with warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implicit learning of convective organization explains precipitation stochasticity

Accurate prediction of precipitation intensity is crucial for both human and natural systems, especially in a warming climate more prone to extreme precipitation. Yet, climate models fail to accurately predict precipitation intensity, particularly extremes. One missing piece of information in traditional climate model parameterizations is subgrid-scale cloud structure and organization, which affects precipitation intensity and stochasticity at coarse resolution. Here, using global storm-resolving simulations and machine learning, we show that, by implicitly learning subgrid organization, we can accurately predict precipitation variability and stochasticity with a low-dimensional set of latent variables. Using a neural network to parameterize coarse-grained precipitation, we find that the overall behavior of precipitation is reasonably predictable using large-scale quantities only; however, the neural network cannot predict the variability of precipitation (R 2 ~ 0.45) and underestimates precipitation extremes. The performance is significantly improved when the network is informed by our organization metric, correctly predicting precipitation extremes and spatial variability (R 2 ~ 0.9). The organization metric is implicitly learned by training the algorithm on a high-resolution precipitable water field, encoding the degree of subgrid organization. The organization metric shows large hysteresis, emphasizing the role of memory created by subgrid-scale structures. We demonstrate that this organization metric can be predicted as a simple memory process from information available at the previous time steps. These findings stress the role of organization and memory in accurate prediction of precipitation intensity and extremes and the necessity of parameterizing subgrid-scale convective organization in climate models to better project future changes of water cycle and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times

The persistence and size of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) through the Pleistocene is uncertain. This is important because reconstructing changes in the GrIS determines its contribution to sea level rise during prior warm climate periods and informs future projections. To understand better the history of Greenland’s ice, we analyzed glacial till collected in 1993 from below 3 km of ice at Summit, Greenland. The till contains plant fragments, wood, insect parts, fungi, and cosmogenic nuclides showing that the bed of the GrIS at Summit is a long-lived, stable land surface preserving a record of deposition, exposure, and interglacial ecosystems. Knowing that central Greenland was tundra-covered during the Pleistocene informs the understanding of Arctic biosphere response to deglaciation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon lifecycle based on observation and CMIP6

Long-term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) lifecycle since 1979 are analyzed based on observational datasets and historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). According to the observation, the active and break phases of EASM have intensified resulting in a shorter but stronger rainy season, followed by a longer dry spell. This intensification in the active-phase precipitation is accompanied by increased lower tropospheric southwesterly wind and subsequent convergence of water vapor flux. These changes are accompanied by the widely reported westward extension of the North Pacific Subtropical High, which has been associated with the warming climate. CMIP6 models generally underestimated the observed intensification of the EASM lifecycle and the monsoon precipitation. However, some of the models did simulate the intensified EASM lifecycle similar to that observed. The result highlights the reasonable performance on EASM shown in some CMIP6 models and those simulations lend support to a dynamically-driven intensification of the EASM lifecycle in the warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the carbon capture potential of industrial waste as a feedstock for enhanced weathering

Abstract Limiting anthropogenic global climate warming since the start of the industrial period to less than 2 °C will very likely require both deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and a range of approaches toward carbon dioxide removal (CDR). One prominent CDR approach is enhanced weathering (EW), in which crushed silicate rock is applied on land or in the open ocean to accelerate natural weathering processes that absorb carbon dioxide from Earth’s ocean–atmosphere system. However, in addition to a range of potential environmental, socioeconomic, and ethical issues associated with this pathway, bottlenecks in feedstock sourcing represent a key barrier for deployment of EW at scale. Here, we evaluate the potential of silicate wastes produced from industrial processes—such as steel slag and cement waste—as feedstocks for the EW process. An empirical model that links industrial alkaline waste production to gross domestic product at purchase power parity is developed to forecast waste production in the alternative futures described by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) framework. By incorporating these results into an intermediate-complexity Earth system model, we also explore the impacts of EW using industrial waste on changes to global temperature, ocean pH, and ocean aragonite saturation state, while also quantifying overall CDR efficiency through the end of the century. We estimate a maximum cumulative end-of-century capture potential of ∼400 GtCO 2 for industrial waste, which could represent a significant fraction of the projected CDR requirement of many mitigation scenarios in the SSP framework. However, feedstock-dependent environmental impacts and the technoeconomics of feedstock redistribution may ultimately limit deployment scope.

Xu, Pengxiao (ORCID:0009000633724293)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach

Background and Aims Tropical forests exchange more carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) with the atmosphere than any other terrestrial biome. Yet, uncertainty in the projected carbon balance over the next century is roughly three times greater for the tropics than other for ecosystems. Our limited knowledge of tropical plant physiological responses, including photosynthetic, to climate change is a substantial source of uncertainty in our ability to forecast the global terrestrial carbon sink. Methods Here, we used a meta-analytic approach, focusing on tropical photosynthetic temperature responses, to address this knowledge gap. Our dataset, gleaned from 18 independent studies, included leaf-level light-saturated photosynthetic (A sat ) temperature responses from 108 woody species, with additional temperature parameters (35 species) and rates (250 species) of both maximum rates of electron transport (J max ) and Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ). We investigated how these parameters responded to mean annual temperature (MAT), temperature variability, aridity and elevation, as well as also how responses differed among successional strategy, leaf habit and light environment. Key Results Optimum temperatures for A sat (T optA ) and J max (T optJ ) increased with MAT but not for V cmax (T optV ). Although photosynthetic rates were higher for ‘light’ than ‘shaded’ leaves, light conditions did not generate differences in temperature response parameters. T optA did not differ with successional strategy, but early successional species had ~4 °C wider thermal niches than mid/late species. Semi-deciduous species had ~1 °C higher T optA than broadleaf evergreen species. Most global modelling efforts consider all tropical forests as a single ‘broadleaf evergreen’ functional type, but our data show that tropical species with different leaf habits display distinct temperature responses that should be included in modelling efforts. Conclusions This novel research will inform modelling efforts to quantify tropical ecosystem carbon cycling and provide more accurate representations of how these key ecosystems will respond to altered temperature patterns in the face of climate warming.

Carter, Kelsey R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing the electron transport chain to sustainably improve photosynthesis

Abstract Genetically improving photosynthesis is a key strategy to boosting crop production to meet the rising demand for food and fuel by a rapidly growing global population in a warming climate. Many components of the photosynthetic apparatus have been targeted for genetic modification for improving photosynthesis. Successful translation of these modifications into increased plant productivity in fluctuating environments will depend on whether the electron transport chain (ETC) can support the increased electron transport rate without risking overreduction and photodamage. At present atmospheric conditions, the ETC appears suboptimal and will likely need to be modified to support proposed photosynthetic improvements and to maintain energy balance. Here, I derive photochemical equations to quantify the transport capacity and the corresponding reduction level based on the kinetics of redox reactions along the ETC. Using these theoretical equations and measurements from diverse C3/C4 species across environments, I identify several strategies that can simultaneously increase the transport capacity and decrease the reduction level of the ETC. These strategies include increasing the abundances of reaction centers, cytochrome b6f complexes, and mobile electron carriers, improving their redox kinetics, and decreasing the fraction of secondary quinone–nonreducing photosystem II reaction centers. I also shed light on several previously unexplained experimental findings regarding the physiological impacts of the abundances of the cytochrome b6f complex and plastoquinone. The model developed, and the insights generated from it facilitate the development of sustainable photosynthetic systems for greater crop yields.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗