Traffic Prediction for Uncommunicative Aircraft in Terminal Airspace: Development Framework and Performance Evaluations
This paper presents an air traffic prediction algorithm that takes observations of an aircraft and classifies aircraft type, estimates the aircraft's intent to and method of joining an airport traffic pattern, and predicts the aircaft's future trajectory. To develop algorithms that enable autonomous aircraft to safely insert into un-towered traffic patterns, several challenges need to be addressed. These challenges range from traffic detection to sensor fusion to own-ship trajectory replanning. Critical to a trajectory replanning algorithm is information regarding the future behavior of all traffic aircraft in the operational environment. The presented traffic prediction algorithm generates this information using regular measurements of traffic aircraft position and velocity to classify the aircraft by speed-class, estimate how the aircraft will approach the runway, and construct a predicted trajectory to the runway including future positions and velocities at specific times. The predictions of the presented algorithm are the necessary inputs for any downstream traffic pattern sequencing and own-ship trajectory planning routines. The presented algorithm is benchmarked using approximately 300 randomized traffic trajectories, spanning four vehicle weight classes and eight traffic entry types. While the algorithm can process multiple traffic vehicles in the terminal area, there is no prediction of traffic-on-traffic interaction. Each traffic vehicle is processed separately.