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Models and Measurements Intercomparison 2

Models and Measurement Intercomparison II (MM II) summarizes the intercomparison of results from model simulations and observations of stratospheric species. Representatives from twenty-three modeling groups using twenty-nine models participated in these MM II exercises between 1996 and 1999. Twelve of the models were two- dimensional zonal-mean models while seventeen were three-dimensional models. This was an international effort as seven were from outside the United States. Six transport experiments and five chemistry experiments were designed for various models. Models participating in the transport experiments performed simulations of chemically inert tracers providing diagnostics for transport. The chemistry experiments involved simulating the distributions of chemically active trace cases including ozone. The model run conditions for dynamics and chemistry were prescribed in order to minimize the factors that caused differences in the models. The report includes a critical review of the results by the participants and a discussion of the causes of differences between modeled and measured results as well as between results from different models, A sizable effort went into preparation of the database of the observations. This included a new climatology for ozone. The report should help in evaluating the results from various predictive models for assessing humankind perturbations of the stratosphere.

Park, Jae H.↗

Minnowbrook V: 2006 Workshop on Unsteady Flows in Turbomachinery

This CD-ROM contain materials presented at the Minnowbrook V 2006 Workshop on Unsteady Flows in Turbomachinery, held at the Syracuse University Minnowbrook Conference Center, New York, on August 20-23, 2006. The workshop organizers were John E. LaGraff (Syracuse University), Martin L.G. Oldfield (Oxford University), and J. Paul Gostelow (University of Leicester). The workshop followed the theme, venue, and informal format of four earlier workshops: Minnowbrook I (1993), Minnowbrook II (1997), Minnowbrook III (2000), and Minnowbrook IV (2003). The workshop was focused on physical understanding of unsteady flows in turbomachinery, with the specific goal of contributing to engineering application of improving design codes for turbomachinery. The workshop participants included academic researchers from the United States and abroad and representatives from the gas-turbine industry and U.S. Government laboratories. The physical mechanisms discussed were related to unsteady wakes, active flow control, turbulence, bypass and natural transition, separation bubbles and turbulent spots, modeling of turbulence and transition, heat transfer and cooling, surface roughness, unsteady CFD, and DNS. This CD-ROM contains copies of the viewgraphs presented, organized according to the workshop sessions. Full-color viewgraphs and animations are included. The workshop summary and the plenary discussion transcripts clearly highlight the need for continued vigorous research in the technologically important area of unsteady flows in turbomachines.

LaGraff, John E.↗

Minnowbrook V: 2006 Workshop on Unsteady Flows in Turbomachinery

This volume contains materials presented at the Minnowbrook V 2006 Workshop on Unsteady Flows in Turbomachinery, held at the Syracuse University Minnowbrook Conference Center, New York, on August 20-23, 2006. The workshop organizers were John E. LaGraff (Syracuse University), Martin L.G. Oldfield (Oxford University), and J. Paul Gostelow (University of Leicester). The workshop followed the theme, venue, and informal format of four earlier workshops: Minnowbrook I (1993), Minnowbrook II (1997), Minnowbrook III (2000), and Minnowbrook IV (2003). The workshop was focused on physical understanding of unsteady flows in turbomachinery, with the specific goal of contributing to engineering application of improving design codes for turbomachinery. The workshop participants included academic researchers from the United States and abroad and representatives from the gas-turbine industry and U.S. Government laboratories. The physical mechanisms discussed were related to unsteady wakes, active flow control, turbulence, bypass and natural transition, separation bubbles and turbulent spots, modeling of turbulence and transition, heat transfer and cooling, surface roughness, unsteady CFD, and DNS. The workshop summary and the plenary discussion transcripts clearly highlight the need for continued vigorous research in the technologically important area of unsteady flows in turbomachines. This volume contains abstracts and copies of select viewgraphs organized according to the workshop sessions. Full-color viewgraphs and animations are included in the CD-ROM version only (Doc.ID 20070024781).

LaGraff, John E.↗

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

infrared↗

A Quantitative, Time-Dependent Model of Oxygen Isotopes in the Solar Nebula: Step one

The remarkable discovery that oxygen isotopes in primitive meteorites were fractionated along a line of slope I rather than along the typical slope 0,52 terrestrial fractionation line occurred almost 40 years ago, However, a satisfactory, quantitative explanation for this observation has yet to be found, though many different explanations have been proposed, The first of these explanations proposed that the observed line represented the final product produced by mixing molecular cloud dust with a nucleosynthetic component, rich in O-16, possibly resulting from a nearby supernova explosion, Donald Clayton suggested that Galactic Chemical Evolution would gradually change the oxygen isotopic composition of the interstellar grain population by steadily producing O-16 in supernovae, then producing the heavier isotopes as secondary products in lower mass stars, Thiemens and collaborators proposed a chemical mechanism that relied on the availability of additional active rotational and vibrational states in otherwise-symmetric molecules, such as CO2, O3 or SiO2, containing two different oxygen isotopes and a second, photochemical process that suggested that differential photochemical dissociation processes could fractionate oxygen , This second line of research has been pursued by several groups, though none of the current models is quantitative,

Nuth, J. A.↗

Exploring the Model Design Space for Battery Health Management

Battery Health Management (BHM) is a core enabling technology for the success and widespread adoption of the emerging electric vehicles of today. Although battery chemistries have been studied in detail in literature, an accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm has eluded us. Current reliability-based techniques are insufficient to manage the use of such batteries when they are an active power source with frequently varying loads in uncertain environments. The amount of usable charge of a battery for a given discharge profile is not only dependent on the starting state-of-charge (SOC), but also other factors like battery health and the discharge or load profile imposed. This paper presents a Particle Filter (PF) based BHM framework with plug-and-play modules for battery models and uncertainty management. The batteries are modeled at three different levels of granularity with associated uncertainty distributions, encoding the basic electrochemical processes of a Lithium-polymer battery. The effects of different choices in the model design space are explored in the context of prediction performance in an electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) application with emulated flight profiles.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

Space weather↗

Modeling the Worst-Case-Scenario of Soil Drydown for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in Kansas Using NASA Earth Observations and In-situ Parameters

Climatologists in Kansas have observed rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions and rapid intensification of drought conditions for the state in recent years. As a leading state in agricultural production, drought events can lead to decreased crop yields and impact the state’s economy. The exponential decay of soil moisture content is a major consequence of drought and can exacerbate these impacts on agricultural production. This study examined the rate of soil moisture drydown in Kansas to understand and monitor the worst-case-scenario of short-term soil water shortage. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band Radiometer rootzone soil moisture imagery from March 2015 to June 2019 was used to estimate the minimum and maximum soil moisture capacity throughout the state. In situ soil moisture parameters, such as the exponential decay constant, were approximated from the Kansas Mesonet system. These variables were inputs into an exponential decay model that forecasted gridded rootzone soil moisture in a scenario that assumed no precipitation for a user-identified period of time. The forecasts were output on the order of weeks to capture the rapid shifts in soil moisture content. Another model was used to identify areas in Kansas currently below a given percentage of the relative soil moisture saturation, measured as a function of minimum, maximum, and current soil moisture. This model forecasted the number of days until each cell in the soil moisture grid reached the input percentage of relative soil moisture saturation. The gridded model outputs and workflow were developed in partnership with the Kansas Water Office and Kansas Office of the State Climatologist at Kansas State University, as a part of their drought monitoring efforts.

NASA DEVELOP↗

LADEE Satellite Modeling and Simulation Development

As human activity on and around the Moon increases, so does the likelihood that our actions will have an impact on its atmosphere. The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE), a NASA satellite scheduled to launch in 2013, will orbit the Moon collecting composition, density, and time variability data to characterize the current state of the lunar atmosphere. LADEE will also test the concept of the "Modular Common Bus" spacecraft architecture, an effort to reduce both development time and cost by designing reusable, modular components for use in multiple missions with similar requirements. An important aspect of this design strategy is to both simulate the spacecraft and develop the flight code in Simulink, a block diagram-style programming language that allows easy algorithm visualization and performance testing. Before flight code can be tested, however, a realistic simulation of the satellite and its dynamics must be generated and validated. This includes all of the satellite control system components such as actuators used for force and torque generation and sensors used for inertial orientation reference. My primary responsibilities have included designing, integrating, and testing models for the LADEE thrusters, reaction wheels, star trackers, and rate gyroscopes.

Adams, Michael↗

Medical care capabilities for Space Station Freedom: A phase approach

As a result of Congressional mandate Space Station Freedom (SSF) was restructured. This restructuring activity has affected the capabilities for providing medical care on board the station. This presentation addresses the health care facility to be built and used on the orbiting space station. This unit, named the Health Maintenance Facility (HMF) is based on and modeled after remote, terrestrial medical facilities. It will provide a phased approach to health care for the crews of SSF. Beginning with a stabilization and transport phase, HMF will expand to provide the most advanced state of the art therapeutic and diagnostic capabilities. This presentation details the capabilities of such a phased HMF. As Freedom takes form over the next decade there will be ever-increasing engineering and scientific developmental activities. The HMF will evolve with this process until it eventually reaches a mature, complete stand-alone health care facility that provides a foundation to support interplanetary travel. As man's experience in space continues to grow so will the ability to provide advanced health care for Earth-orbital and exploratory missions as well.

Doarn, C. R.↗

Leveraging Pre-storm Soil Moisture Estimates for Enhanced Land Surface Model Calibration in Ungauged Hydrologic Basins

Despite long-standing efforts, hydrologists still lack robust tools for calibrating land surface model (LSM) streamflow estimates within ungauged basins. Using surface soil moisture estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, precipitation observations, and streamflow gauge measurements for 617 medium-scale (200-10,000 km2) basins in the contiguous United States, we measure the temporal (Spearman) rank correlation between antecedent (i.e., pre-storm) surface soil moisture (ASM) and the storm-scale runoff coefficient (RC; the fraction of storm-scale precipitation accumulation converted into streamflow). In humid and semi-humid basins, this rank correlation is shown to be sufficiently strong to allow for the substitution of storm-scale RC observations (available only in basins that are both lightly regulated and gauged) with high-quality ASM values (available quasi-globally from L4_SM) in streamflow calibration procedures. Using this principle, we define a new, basin-wise LSM streamflow calibration approach based on L4_SM alone and successfully apply it to identify LSM configurations that produce a high rank correlation with observed RC. However, since the approach cannot detect RC bias, it is less successful in identifying LSM configurations with low mean-absolute error. Plain Text Summary Accurately forecasting the fraction of rainfall that runs off into streams, as opposed to infiltrates into the soil, is critical for flash-flood prediction, water-resource monitoring, and tracking the transport of nutrients from agricultural fields into local waterways. Such forecasting is typically performed by hydrologic models that attempt to represent the physical processes responsible for surface runoff generation. However, to provide accurate streamflow forecasts, these models typically need to be calibrated against actual streamflow observations. This is problematic given the relatively poor, and declining, global availability of stream gauges. This paper presents a novel model calibration strategy that uses soil moisture from remote sensing and numerical modeling in place of streamflow observations during calibration. This transition has significant practical advantages because, unlike streamflow observations, the soil moisture data are continuously available across space. Our results demonstrate that this new approach can significantly improve hydrologic models within humid and semi-humid basins lacking sufficient ground-based instrumentation for traditional streamflow calibration.

hydrologic models↗

Chemical interpretation of Viking Lander 1 life detection experiment

An earth-based evaluation of the Viking Lander 1 life-detection experiments was conducted using a radiofrequency glow discharge in a simulated Martian atmosphere. The Gas Exchange Experiment conducted in the humid mode released substantial amounts of CO2, O2, N2, Ar, and CO into the atmosphere, indicating that these substances were adsorbed onto the Martian soil. An adsorption potential plot is given, graphing quantity of gas against time (d). For a model surface area of 17 squares meters per gram of measured substance, oxygen adsorption was found to be relatively high, a result which tends to confirm the hypothesis that Martian oxygen exists largely in chemisorbed states or in active oxygen compounds, e.g., peroxide, superoxide, hydroperoxide

Ballou, E. V.↗

Long term changes in cosmic ray diurnal variations observed by ion chambers in Hong Kong and Japan

Yearly average solar diurnal variations of cosmic ray ion chamber data are inspected from a view point of the eleven and the 22 year solar activity cycle modulations. Ion chamber data and neutron data from various stations are added. From an inspection of observed data, a simple approximation that the 11 year and the 22 year variations of the solar diurnal variation are along 18-hour and 12-hour axes, respectively is proposed. The 18-hour component of diurnal variation in the 11 year cycle increases toward the solar active years. The 12-hour component is enhanced when the solar general magnetic field is parallel to the rotation vector, and is almost zero for the other state. The transition occurs when the amplitude of the 18-hour component is greater owing to the transition of the field during the maximum phase of solar activity. The 22 year shift is consistent with the drift modulation model in heliosphere.

Chuang, L. S.↗

Cardiovascular Deconditioning in Humans: Alteration in Cardiovascular Regulation and Function During Simulated Microgravity

Alterations in cardiovascular regulation and function that occur during and after space flight have been reported. These alterations are manifested, for example, by reduced orthostatic tolerance upon reentry to the earth's gravity from space. However, the precise physiologic mechanisms responsible for these alterations remain to be fully elucidated. Perhaps, as a result, effective countermeasures have yet to be developed. In this project we apply a powerful, new method - cardiovascular system identification (CSI) - for the study of the effects of space flight on the cardiovascular system so that effective countermeasures can be developed. CSI involves the mathematical analysis of second-to-second fluctuations in non-invasively measured heart rate, arterial blood pressure (ABP), and instantaneous lung volume (ILV - respiratory activity) in order to characterize quantitatively the physiologic mechanisms responsible for the couplings between these signals. Through the characterization of all the physiologic mechanisms coupling these signals, CSI provides a model of the closed-loop cardiovascular regulatory state in an individual subject. The model includes quantitative descriptions of the heart rate baroreflex, autonomic function, as well as other important physiologic mechanisms. We are in the process of incorporating beat-to-beat fluctuations of stroke volume into the CSI technique in order to quantify additional physiologic mechanisms such as those involved in control of peripheral vascular resistance and alterations in cardiac contractility. We apply CSI in conjunction with the two general protocols of the Human Studies Core project. The first protocol involves ground-based, human head down tilt bed rest to simulate microgravity and acute stressors - upright tilt, standing and bicycle exercise - to provide orthostatic and exercise challenges. The second protocol is intended to be the same as the first but with the addition of sleep deprivation to determine whether this contributes to cardiovascular alterations. In these studies, we focus on the basic physiologic mechanisms responsible for the alterations in cardiovascular regulation and function during the simulated microgravity in order to formulate hypotheses regarding what countermeasures are likely to be most effective. Compared to our original proposal, the protocol we are using has been slightly modified to lengthen the bed rest period to 16 days and streamline the data collection. These modifications provide us data on a longer bed rest period and have enabled us to increase our subject throughput. Based on review of our preliminary data we have decided to test a countermeasure which is applied the very end of the bed rest period. We will use the same bed rest protocol to test this countermeasure. We anticipate completing the baseline data collection in our first protocol plus testing of the countermeasure in an additional eight subjects, at which time we plan to initiate the second protocol which includes sleep deprivation. In future studies, we plan to apply CSI to test other potential countermeasures in conjunction with the same bed rest, sleep deprivation and acute stressor models. We also anticipate applying CSI for studying astronauts before and after space flight and ultimately, during space flight. The application of CSI is providing information relevant to the development and evaluation of effective countermeasures allowing humans to adapt appropriately upon re-exposure to a gravity field, and to live and work for longer periods of time in microgravity.

Cohen, Richard↗

Simulating Activities: Relating Motives, Deliberation and Attentive Coordination

Activities are located behaviors, taking time, conceived as socially meaningful, and usually involving interaction with tools and the environment. In modeling human cognition as a form of problem solving (goal-directed search and operator sequencing), cognitive science researchers have not adequately studied "off-task" activities (e.g., waiting), non-intellectual motives (e.g., hunger), sustaining a goal state (e.g., playful interaction), and coupled perceptual-motor dynamics (e.g., following someone). These aspects of human behavior have been considered in bits and pieces in past research, identified as scripts, human factors, behavior settings, ensemble, flow experience, and situated action. More broadly, activity theory provides a comprehensive framework relating motives, goals, and operations. This paper ties these ideas together, using examples from work life in a Canadian High Arctic research station. The emphasis is on simulating human behavior as it naturally occurs, such that "working" is understood as an aspect of living. The result is a synthesis of previously unrelated analytic perspectives and a broader appreciation of the nature of human cognition. Simulating activities in this comprehensive way is useful for understanding work practice, promoting learning, and designing better tools, including human-robot systems.

Clancey, William J.↗

Aerospace Meteorology Lessons Learned Relative to Aerospace Vehicle Design and Operations

Aerospace Meteorology came into being in the 1950s as the development of rockets for military and civilian usage grew in the United States. The term was coined to identify those involved in the development of natural environment models, design/operational requirements, and environment measurement systems to support the needs of aerospace vehicles, both launch vehicles and spacecraft. It encompassed the atmospheric environment of the Earth, including Earth orbit environments. Several groups within the United States were active in this area, including the Department of Defense, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and a few of the aerospace industry groups. Some aerospace meteorology efforts were similar to those being undertaken relative to aviation interests. As part of the aerospace meteorology activities a number of lessons learned resulted that produced follow on efforts which benefited from these experiences, thus leading to the rather efficient and technologically current descriptions of terrestrial environment design requirements, prelaunch monitoring systems, and forecast capabilities available to support the development and operations of aerospace vehicles.

Vaughan, William W.↗

Current Status of Programs and Research within the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is the world's longest-standing orbital debris research organization. It supports all aspects of international and US national policy-making related to the orbital environment and to spacecraft life cycle requirements. Representing more than just NASA projects, it is the United States' center of expertise in the field. The office continues to advance research in all aspects of orbital debris, including its measurement, modeling, and risk assessment for both orbital and ground safety concerns. This presentation will highlight current activities and recent progress in all aspects of the ODPO's mission.

Bacon, Jack↗

Turbulence modeling for high speed compressible flows

The following grant objectives were delineated in the proposal to NASA: to offer course work in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and related areas to enable mechanical engineering students at North Carolina A&T State University (N.C. A&TSU) to pursue M.S. studies in CFD, and to enable students and faculty to engage in research in high speed compressible flows. Since no CFD-related activity existed at N.C. A&TSU before the start of the NASA grant period, training of students in the CFD area and initiation of research in high speed compressible flows were proposed as the key aspects of the project. To that end, graduate level courses in CFD, boundary layer theory, and fluid dynamics were offered. This effort included initiating a CFD course for graduate students. Also, research work was performed on studying compressibility effects in high speed flows. Specifically, a modified compressible dissipation model, which included a fourth order turbulent Mach number term, was incorporated into the SPARK code and verified for the air-air mixing layer case. The results obtained for this case were compared with a wide variety of experimental data to discern the trends in the mixing layer growth rates with varying convective Mach numbers. Comparison of the predictions of the study with the results of several analytical models was also carried out. The details of the research study are described in the publication entitled 'Compressibility Effects in Modeling Turbulent High Speed Mixing Layers,' which is attached to this report.

Chandra, Suresh↗