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At least 397 records · Page 22

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Benchmarking a Tunable Quantum Neural Network on Trapped-Ion and Superconducting Hardware

We implement a quantum generalization of a neural network on trapped-ion and IBM superconducting quantum computers to classify MNIST images, a common benchmark in computer vision. The network feedforward involves qubit rotations whose angles depend on the results of measurements in the previous layer. The network is trained via simulation, but inference is performed experimentally on quantum hardware. The classical-to-quantum correspondence is controlled by an interpolation parameter, $a$, which is zero in the classical limit. Increasing $a$ introduces quantum uncertainty into the measurements, which is shown to improve network performance at moderate values of the interpolation parameter. We then focus on particular images that fail to be classified by a classical neural network but are detected correctly in the quantum network. For such borderline cases, we observe strong deviations from the simulated behavior. We attribute this to physical noise, which causes the output to fluctuate between nearby minima of the classification energy landscape. Such strong sensitivity to physical noise is absent for clear images. We further benchmark physical noise by inserting additional single-qubit and two-qubit gate pairs into the neural network circuits. Our work provides a springboard toward more complex quantum neural networks on current devices: while the approach is rooted in standard classical machine learning, scaling up such networks may prove classically non-simulable and could offer a route to near-term quantum advantage.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Accessing FMS Functionality: The Impact of Design on Learning

In modern commercial and military aircraft, the Flight Management System (FMS) lies at the heart of the functionality of the airplane. The nature of the FMS has also caused great difficulties learning and accessing this functionality. This study examines actual Air Force pilots who were qualified on the newly introduced advanced FMS and shows that the design of the system itself is a primary source of difficulty learning the system. Twenty representative tasks were selected which the pilots could be expected to accomplish on an ' actual flight. These tasks were analyzed using the RAFIV stage model (Sherry, Polson, et al. 2002). This analysis demonstrates that a great burden is placed on remembering complex reformulation of the task to function mapping. 65% of the tasks required retaining one access steps in memory to accomplish the task, 20% required two memorized access steps, and 15% required zero memorized access steps. The probability that a participant would make an access error on the tasks was: two memorized access steps - 74%, one memorized access step - 13%, and zero memorized access steps - 6%. Other factors were analyzed as well, including experience with the system and frequency of use. This completed the picture of a system with many memorized steps causing difficulty with the new system, especially when trying to fine where to access the correct function.

Fennell, Karl↗

Finite flame thickness effects on Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov turbulent burning velocities

KPP (Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov) solutions of the reaction-diffusion equation have application in various physical phenomena occurring in biology, ecology, and reacting flows. In particular, these solutions are commonly used in turbulent combustion to scale turbulent burning velocities. Subject to certain conditions on reaction rate profile through the flame brush and turbulent diffusivity, this theory relates the turbulent burning velocity to the derivative of the reaction rate ($\tilde{ω}$) at the leading edge of the flame brush ($d\tilde{ω}$/$d\tilde{c}$ | $\tilde{c} =$0 ). Such waves are often referred to as “pulled fronts.” However, turbulent flames never actually satisfy the KPP conditions for a pulled front, as the turbulent flame brush, parametrized here by the thickness δ t , consists of an ensemble of laminar flamelets of thickness δ, where ε=δ/δ t $\ll$ 1 is very small, but nonzero, and $d\tilde{ω}$ /$d\tilde{c}$ tends to zero at the brush leading edge for high activation energy, combustion-type kinetics. Here, this paper analyzes these effects on KPP wave solutions, parametrized by ε=δ/δ t and Zeldovich number Ze focusing on whether turbulent flames retain their pulled front character and what the correction to the KPP wave speed is. Variational solutions of the reaction-diffusion equation show that the solution can be expanded in powers of 1/|ln⁡ε|. Both numerical and asymptotic results are presented, showing that the wave still exhibits pulled front solutions but with significant corrections to the KPP result. The leading order correction is of the form |ln⁡ε| –2 and independent of Ze. Higher order corrections are function of both ε and Ze. However, the dominant factor influencing the wave speed correction is due to the finite ε, with Ze exhibiting a weaker effect.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Investigation of the effect of local atomic polarization on field-enhanced ion transport in insulating binary oxides: The case of CeO 2

Over the course of more than 70 years, several theoretical models for electric field-enhanced ion diffusion in crystalline insulators have been presented. However, there is no assessment of the validity of these models despite the urge to have a correct description of field-enhanced ion diffusion in several emerging technologies. Herein, an assessment of five models was carried out by computing the field-dependent migration enthalpy ΔH mig (E) for the oxide ion in CeO 2 . The input to these models is the zero-field and zero-temperature migration pathway and/or the activation barrier obtained from an interatomic potential. ΔH mig (E) from these models was compared with reference values obtained from a set of classical molecular-dynamics simulations in the temperature range of 1000 ≤ T ≤ 1600 K and the electric field range of 0 ≤ E ≤ 30 MV/cm. It is revealed that the most successful theoretical models are those that consider local polarization effects induced in the diffusing ion itself and its vicinity. However, all the models did not account for the effect of the electric field and finite temperature on the local polarization, leading to discrepancies between the predicted and the reference ΔH mig (E), particularly at high fields. By comparing results from a rigid-ion potential and a polarizable core-shell potential, it is concluded that an intraionic polarization degree of freedom in the polarizable potential is an important factor in predicting ΔH mig (E), regardless of the field-enhanced diffusion model particularly for low to moderate field. Finally, future more accurate treatments should consider the field- and temperature-dependent interionic and intraionic local polarization effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

(U) LNK3DNT Capability in SENSMG Tested with Transport Correction

The SENSMG multigroup neutron sensitivity code can read materials and geometry from redoin and lnk3dnt files written by the PARTISN multigroup discrete ordinates code or the MCNP6 Monte Carlo code. Reference 5 described an initial version of this capability. Reference 6 introduced two important extensions: 1) Reaction-rate ratios are now allowed as responses with redoin/lnk3dnt inputs; and 2) Sensitivities of reaction-rate ratios to mass densities and interface locations are now calculated (for all problems, not just redoin/lnk3dnt problems). In this report, we document the testing of the redoin/lnk3dnt capability when used with transport correction. PARTISN’s transport corrections are described in Ref. 3, and Refs. 7 and 8 discuss the calculation of cross-section sensitivities when transport corrections are applied. References 7 and 8 verify SENSMG for problems with transport correction using central differences. This report verifies the capability with redoin/lnk3dnt inputs by comparison with regular SENSMG inputs. Unlike Refs. 5 and 6, in this report we use a spherical test problem because the sensitivity of the response with respect to the highest-order scattering is zero in cylinders due to the use of flux moments in the inner products.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

First-Order Individual Gas Sensors as Next Generation Reliable Analytical Instruments

It is conventionally expected that the performance of existing gas sensors may degrade in the field compared to laboratory conditions because (i) a sensor may lose its accuracy in the presence of chemical interferences and (ii) variations of ambient conditions over time may induce sensor-response fluctuations (i.e., drift). Breaking this status quo in poor sensor performance requires understanding the origins of design principles of existing sensors and bringing new principles to sensor designs. Existing gas sensors are single-output (e.g., resistance, electrical current, light intensity, etc.) sensors, also known as zero-order sensors (Karl Booksh and Bruce R. Kowalski, Analytical Chemistry, DOI: 10.1021/ac00087a718). Any zero-order sensor is undesirably affected by variable chemical background and sensor drift that cannot be distinguished from the response to an analyte. To address these limitations, we are developing multivariable gas sensors with independent responses, which are first-order analytical instruments. Here, we demonstrate self-correction against drift in two types of first-order gas sensors that operate in different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Our radiofrequency sensors utilize dielectric excitation of semiconducting metal oxide materials on the shoulder of their dielectric relaxation peak and achieve self-correction of the baseline drift by operation at several frequencies. Our photonic sensors utilize nanostructured sensing materials inspired by Morpho butterflies and achieve self-correction of the baseline drift by operation at several wavelengths. These principles of self-correction for drift effects in first-order sensors open opportunities for diverse emerging monitoring applications that cannot afford frequent periodic maintenance that is typical of traditional analytical instruments.

Potyrailo, Radislav A.↗

Extending the impulse response in order to reduce errors due to impulse noise and signal fading

A finite impulse response (FIR) digital smearing filter was designed to produce maximum intersymbol interference and maximum extension of the impulse response of the signal in a noiseless binary channel. A matched FIR desmearing filter at the receiver then reduced the intersymbol interference to zero. Signal fades were simulated by means of 100 percent signal blockage in the channel. Smearing and desmearing filters of length 256, 512, and 1024 were used for these simulations. Results indicate that impulse response extension by means of bit smearing appears to be a useful technique for correcting errors due to impulse noise or signal fading in a binary channel.

Webb, Joseph A.↗

A New Measurement of the Bulk Flow of X-Ray Luminous Clusters of Galaxies

We present new measurements of the large-scale bulk flows of galaxy clusters based on five-year WMAP data and a significantly expanded X-ray cluster catalog. Our method probes the flow via measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect produced by the hot gas in moving clusters. It computes the dipole in the cosmic microwave background data at cluster pixels, which preserves the SZ component while integrating down other contributions. Our improved catalog of over 1000 clusters enables us to further investigate possible systematic effects and, thanks to a higher median cluster redshift, allows us to measure the bulk flow to larger scales. We present a corrected error treatment and demonstrate that the more X-ray luminous clusters, while fewer in number, have much larger optical depth, resulting in a higher dipole and thus a more accurate flow measurement. This results in the observed correlation of the dipole derived at the aperture of zero monopole with the monopole measured over the cluster central regions. This correlation is expected if the dipole is produced by the SZ effect and cannot be caused by unidentified systematics (or primary cosmic microwave background anisotropies). We measure that the flow is consistent with approximately constant velocity out to at least [similar, equals]800 Mpc. The significance of the measured signal peaks around 500 h -1 70 Mpc, most likely because the contribution from more distant clusters becomes progressively more diluted by the WMAP beam. However, at present, we cannot rule out that these more distant clusters simply contribute less to the overall motion.

Kashlinsky, A.↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43: Initial Evaluation of the Climate - MERRA-2

The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

MERRA-2↗

Electric Sail Design Sensitivities

Electric Sails (E-Sails) are a promising propulsion technology that seek to enable high characteristic propellentless acceleration for spacecraft to reach distant and/or difficult to reach orbits such as rapid transit to heliopause. The E-Sail system exchanges momentum by using positively charged electrostatic tethers to repel solar wind photons to push it through space. This concept was first theorized by Pekka Janhunen in 2004 with further developments occurring including a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts Phase 1 and Phase 2 hosted out of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). These developments led to further maturation of the overall system, and this paper is designed to help identify different design sensitivities of an integrated Electric Sail system. To approach this, a small team at MSFC took an in-house developed three degrees of freedom (3DoF) simulation tool and a trajectory modelling tool to look at different design parameters and to determine a potential ideal E-Sail configuration. An E-Sail system has different design architectures including a barbell design, hub and spoke design, and a potential hybrid solution. The barbell design features two equally massed satellites that spin around a central point in the tether system. The hub and spoke design features a large central spacecraft with small end spacecraft to aid in formation control of the overall E-Sail system. Leveraging elements from both the hub and spoke, and barbell design, a hybrid option exists where one could have a larger central mass and one or two tethers extended to a smaller end mass [2]. In summary, the hub and spoke design is the ideal configuration for E-Sail with tethers spanning kilometers to achieve the designed design characteristic acceleration of at least one mm/s2 with this architecture being the focus of this study. Different key design parameters were varied as part of this study. These parameters include the total number of tethers, the length of the tethers, spin rate, relative spacecraft mass, tether voltage, inertia per tether, and impact of slew rate changes. These results started from an internal MSFC technology demonstration mission design and then the parameters were varied with engineering judgement to ensure that the results were consistent with expected results. These were varied in the MSFC 3DoF tool and compared to baseline results to generate a candidate ideal E-Sail design system. These results were then used to help inform the mission analysis design for the system. The 3DoF trajectory optimization was performed in the Astrodynamics and Space Science Enabling Toolbox (ASSET) and utilized collocation optimization of control vector pointing with the objective function being transfer duration. A representative model of the E-Sail force was derived as a function of the Sun-pointing vector direction. This model was initialized with a zero Sun Incidence Angle (SIA) trajectory for the initial guess generation, then with a portion of the mission optimized SIA time history for fast outbound transfers. After the trajectory is hyperbolic relative to a heliocentric frame, the SIA is maintained at 0 degrees except for any needed trajectory correction maneuvers. This trajectory optimization looked at different characteristic acceleration values to analyze the impact it had on mission performance. As a result of this study, the team can best inform mission designers and technology development efforts to mature the E-Sail system. This study will allow mission designers to have defined rules-of-thumb to design an E-Sail system to meet desired mission needs as well as providing several sample mission profiles. These design drivers will inform maturation efforts on which design requirements to consider for an integrated E-Sail design.

E-Sail↗

Scientific management and implementation of the geophysical fluid flow cell for Spacelab missions

Scientific support for the spherical convection experiment to be flown on Spacelab 3 was developed. This experiment takes advantage of the zero gravity environment of the orbiting space laboratory to conduct fundamental fluid flow studies concerned with thermally driven motions inside a rotating spherical shell with radial gravity. Such a system is a laboratory analog of large scale atmospheric and solar circulations. The radial body force necessary to model gravity correctly is obtained by using dielectric polarization forces in a radially varying electric field to produce radial accelerations proportional to temperature. This experiment will answer fundamental questions concerned with establishing the preferred modes of large scale motion in planetary and stellar atmospheres.

Hart, J.↗

Improved definition of crustal anomalies for Magsat data

Ongoing efforts to define and model external magnetic field activities are summarized. Data were obtained and plotted for the five international quiet days of each month Magsat was in orbit. The values of the magnetic field at midnight were also plotted for each of the quiet days. Results show that the zero level of the field fluctuates over the time interval considered. Statistical studies were made for the Kp and Ap indices and more sunspot numbers were obtained for the Magsat period. Satellite data are being thinned and reformatted to make them more amenable to testing the Dst and Sq corrections. The software for processing Magsat tapes is being tested with intermediate attitude data.

Source record↗

Compressibility effects in turbulence modeling

Numerical turbulence modeling is discussed with attention given to fluid property variations caused by compressibility in an adiabatic flow. The models are considered in terms of integral quantities expressed by ordinary differential equations and by those formulated as partial differential equations. Compressibility corrections for both integral and partial differential methods are reviewed. Eddy-viscosity models are explored for their capability to characterize the mass-weighted Reynolds stress, which can be accounted for with primitive and/or mass-weighted variables. Compressible flow simulations are currently constrained to low Re and zero mean dilation. The effects of compressibility are defined in wave number space by resolving the Fourier transforms of the velocity vectors into components which are perpendicular and parallel to the wave number vector. Statistical correlations then permit obtaining a value for each contribution.

Rubesin, M. W.↗

Two-directional skin friction measurement utilizing a compact internally mounted thin-liquid-film skin friction meter

A new, compact oil film skin friction meter capable of measuring skin friction in two directions has been designed and constructed. The instrument allows the thin liquid film technique to now be applied in flight and in a wider variety of laboratory conditions. The instrument was tested by comparing measurements with those given by a floating element gage in laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layers with zero pressure gradient. Both instruments agreed satisfactorily with each other and with the expected curves for the laminar and turbulent boundary layers. Significant differences were at first seen between the oil film meter and two floating element gages in the case of a favorable pressure gradient, but when a correction is applied to account for the normal force acting on the pendulum-type gage, the three instruents are much closer. The directional sensitivity of the oil film gage is also demonstrated.

Seto, Jeffrey A.↗

Technology Advancement of the Visible Nulling Coronagraph

The critical high contrast imaging technology for the Extrasolar Planetary Imaging Coronagraph (EPIC) mission concept is the visible nulling coronagraph (VNC). EPIC would be capable of imaging jovian planets, dust/debris disks, and potentially super-Earths and contribute to answering how bright the debris disks are for candidate stars. The contrast requirement for EPIC is 10(exp 9) contrast at 125 milli-arseconds inner working angle. To advance the VNC technology NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, in collaboration with Lockheed-Martin, previously developed a vacuum VNC testbed, and achieved narrowband and broadband suppression of the core of the Airy disk. Recently our group was awarded a NASA Technology Development for Exoplanet Missions to achieve two milestones: (i) 10(exp 8) contrast in narrowband light, and, (ii) 10(ecp 9) contrast in broader band light; one milestone per year, and both at 2 Lambda/D inner working angle. These will be achieved with our 2nd generation testbed known as the visible nulling testbed (VNT). It contains a MEMS based hex-packed segmented deformable mirror known as the multiple mirror array (MMA) and coherent fiber bundle, i.e. a spatial filter array (SFA). The MMA is in one interferometric arm and works to set the wavefront differences between the arms to zero. Each of the MMA segments is optically mapped to a single mode fiber of the SFA, and the SFA passively cleans the sub-aperture wavefront error leaving only piston, tip and tilt error to be controlled. The piston degree of freedom on each segment is used to correct the wavefront errors, while the tip/tilt is used to simultaneously correct the amplitude errors. Thus the VNT controls both amplitude and wavefront errors with a single MMA in closed-loop in a vacuum tank at approx.20 Hz. Herein we will discuss our ongoing progress with the VNT.

Lyon, Richard G.↗

Confirmation of the PPLB Derivative Discontinuity: Exact Chemical Potential at Finite Temperatures of a Model System

The landmark 1982 paper of Perdew, Parr, Levy, and Balduz (often called PPLB) laid the foundation for our modern understanding of the role of the derivative discontinuity in density functional theory, which drives much development to account for its effects. A simple model for the chemical potential at vanishing temperature played a crucial role in their argument. We investigate the validity of this model in the simplest non-trivial system to which it can be applied and which can be easily solved exactly, the Hubbard dimer. We find exact agreement in the crucial zero-temperature limit, and show the model remains accurate for a significant range of temperatures. We identify how this range depends on the strength of correlations. We extend the model to approximate free energies accounting for the derivative discontinuity, a feature missing in standard semilocal approximations. Here, we provide a correction to this approximation to yield even more accurate free energies. We discuss the relevance of these results for warm dense matter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computational simulation of turbulent vortex merger and decay

The interaction and eventual merger of corotational vortices and the decay of a single vortex have been studied by employing zero-, one- and two-equation turbulent-flow models in order to gain a better understanding of the role of turbulence. An implicit finite-difference procedure is used to integrate the unsteady, two-dimensional equations in a cross-plane. The zero- and one-equation formulations utilize a mixing-length model, which incorporates the streamline curvature effect by prescribing a spatially-varying mixing-length. In the two-equation model, the turbulence kinetic energy equation and a modified rate of dissipation equation which includes a streamline curvature correction are solved. Computational results of different models applied to various flow-configurations are presented and compared with available experimental data whenever possible.

Raj, P.↗