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Results for “Variability analysis”

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DOE OSTI2022

Force-Modulated Selectivity of the Rhodium-Catalyzed Hydroformylation of 1-Alkenes

Here we quantify the regio- chemo-, and enantioselectivity of the hydroformylation of 1-alkenes catalyzed by Rh(I) complexes containing chiral macrocyclic biaryl bis(phosphine) ligands as a function of mechanical force applied to the biaryl backbone of these ligands. Extension forces increase the regioselectivity of the hydroformylation of 1-octene from l:b = 1.2 to 1.9 and decrease the chemoselectivity for C 9 aldehyde relative to 2-octene from 96% to 20% across a ~230 pN change in applied force. Extension forces decrease the enantioselectivity of the hydroformylation of styrene from 28% to 18% ee across a similar force range. Variable temperature 1 H and 31 P NMR analysis of five-coordinate rhodium complexes of the form (P–P)Rh(CO) 2 H established structures in which the bisphosphine ligand occupies one equatorial and one apical position in the trigonal bipyramid with rapid interconversion of the equatorial and apical phosphorus atoms ($ΔG^‡_{223 \text{K}}$ = 9.6–9.9 kcal/mol). Neither the isomeric composition nor fluxional behavior of these complexes was detectably perturbed across a ~300 pN change in applied force.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microstructural impacts on ionic conductivity of oxide solid electrolytes from a combined atomistic-mesoscale approach

Abstract Although multiple oxide-based solid electrolyte materials with intrinsically high ionic conductivities have emerged, practical processing and synthesis routes introduce grain boundaries and other interfaces that can perturb primary conduction channels. To directly probe these effects, we demonstrate an efficient and general mesoscopic computational method capable of predicting effective ionic conductivity through a complex polycrystalline oxide-based solid electrolyte microstructure without relying on simplified equivalent circuit description. We parameterize the framework for Li 7- x La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) garnet solid electrolyte by combining synthetic microstructures from phase-field simulations with diffusivities from molecular dynamics simulations of ordered and disordered systems. Systematically designed simulations reveal an interdependence between atomistic and mesoscopic microstructural impacts on the effective ionic conductivity of polycrystalline LLZO, quantified by newly defined metrics that characterize the complex ionic transport mechanism. Our results provide fundamental understanding of the physical origins of the reported variability in ionic conductivities based on an extensive analysis of literature data, while simultaneously outlining practical design guidance for achieving desired ionic transport properties based on conditions for which sensitivity to microstructural features is highest. Additional implications of our results are discussed, including a possible connection between ion conduction behavior and dendrite formation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active anomaly detection for time-domain discoveries

Aims. We present the first evidence that adaptive learning techniques can boost the discovery of unusual objects within astronomical light curve data sets. Methods. Our method follows an active learning strategy where the learning algorithm chooses objects which can potentially improve the learner if additional information about them is provided. This new information is subsequently used to update the machine learning model, allowing its accuracy to evolve with each new information. For the case of anomaly detection, the algorithm aims to maximize the number of scientifically interesting anomalies presented to the expert by slightly modifying the weights of a traditional Isolation Forest (IF) at each iteration. In order to demonstrate the potential of such techniques, we apply the Active Anomaly Discovery (AAD) algorithm to 2 data sets: simulated light curves from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) and real light curves from the Open Supernova Catalog. We compare the AAD results to those of a static IF. For both methods, we performed a detailed analysis for all objects with the ~2% highest anomaly scores. Results. We show that, in the real data scenario , AAD was able to identify ~80% more true anomalies than the IF. This result is the first evidence that AAD algorithms can play a central role in the search for new physics in the era of large scale sky surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cummins R-SOFC System Development

The overall purpose of this project was to reduce the Reversible-Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (R-SOFC) system cost by developing two technologies, an improved cell design and the incorporation of an ejector in the fuel recycle loop instead of a blower. A Simulink model of the baseline SOFC system was developed and calibrated with experimental test data. The R-SOFC system model was built by integrating GT Suite developed models of the steam generation components into the baseline Simulink SOFC system model. The ability to run the stack in SOEC operating mode was also added to the model. The system model was used to explore the ability of the R-SOFC system to meet operational constraints on Steam/Carbon ratio and H2 concentration on the fuel side electrode. A CFD ejector model was developed and used to explore a range of ejector design parameters, leading to the final ejector design that was prototyped for testing. A prototype steam ejector was first tested in a laboratory environment using room temperature air. The steam ejector was subsequently tested using the full hot recycle loop with all relevant heat exchangers and steam generation components. The test conditions utilized temperatures, pressures, and flow rates expected in an R-SOFC application. Throughout the experimental testing work, ejector performance test data was used to improve and then validate the CFD ejector model. A CFD cell model was developed and used to optimize thermal gradients, voltage, and cost of a new cell substrate design. A CFD comparison of co-flow and cross-flow cell designs informed the decision to use a co-flow design for the new cell substrate. Multiple rounds of CFD simulation were used to improve the cell design to minimize the variation in air and fuel distribution across cell channels and to minimize the variation in air and fuel distribution across different cells in the stack. A few prototypes of the new cell substrate design were produced and validated in a laboratory environment by thermally spraying and verifying that they met established manufacturing specifications. The cell manufacturing process was adjusted in order to bring these metrics within acceptable tolerances. Cummins’ internal calculations show that the new cell design reduces cost ~50% compared to the baseline cell, while the ejector + superheater/boiler concept reduces cost of the recycle loop by ~40%. The impact of these cost reductions on the cost of producing H2 will depend on the specific system where they are applied. Therefore, a Techno-Economic Analysis was completed using system cost as a variable, and showing how the NREL Current and Future system costs translate into H2 production cost.

Henrichsen, Lars↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Nitrate, Nitrite, Ammonia, and Tritium in D0220 Cores

This report describes characterization of nitrogen species (nitrate, nitrite, ammonia) in aqueous and solid phases in cores taken in borehole D0220 (well 299-E25-245) under crib 216-A-37-1 at the Hanford Site in 2022 to evaluate (a) the types of nitrogen species currently in the vadose zone and (b) the migration of nitrogen species in the vadose zone. Ammonia and tritium from PUREX decladding condensate were sporadically discharged to the crib from 1977 to 1989. During discharge operations, the estimated travel time through the vadose zone to groundwater was 2.5 to 9 months. By 2003, a characterization borehole (C4106) showed residual pore water with elevated tritium and nitrate in the first 100 ft of the vadose zone, which is likely from the crib. However, there was significantly more nitrate present at the shallowest depth (15 to 22 ft), which may indicate a different source for nitrate, such as adsorbed ammonia slowly being oxidized or nitrogen species precipitates slowly dissolving. In this study, more extensive nitrogen species characterization was done on D0220 cores (drilled in 2022) at 40- and 262-ft depths, which included (a) aqueous nitrate, nitrite, and tritium; (b) adsorbed ammonia; (c) nitrogen in carbonates (or other minerals dissolved in acidic acid); (d) nitrogen in iron oxides (or other minerals dissolved in oxalic acid); and (e) nitrogen in hard-to-extract minerals (minerals dissolved in nitric acid). High pore water nitrate (226 to 331 mg/L) at 40-ft depth measured in D0220 (2022) compared to 60 mg/L at 40-ft depth in C4106 (2003) may indicate nitrate is migrating deeper. Tritium concentrations (pore water 132,000 to 148,000 pCi/L) measured in D0220 at 40-ft depth in 2022 were considerably higher than in C4106 at 40-ft depth (160 pCi/L). Additional nitrogen species mass was present in adsorbed and precipitated phases in D0220 cores. Low adsorbed ammonia was measured at 40.1- and 261.7-ft depths. Low concentrations of carbonate associated nitrogen and iron oxide-associated nitrogen were present at 40.1 and 40.6 ft depths. Nitrogen species in solid phase extractions indicate nitrogen precipitates or aqueous nitrate or ammonia trapped in sediment microfractures that are coated by precipitates. Overall, the nitrogen species and tritium characterization at two depths in D0220 showed that additional nitrogen species were present in the vadose zone. In addition, elevated pore water nitrate in D0220 at 40 ft depth from 2022 may indicate vertical migration compared to C4106 nitrate profile from 2003. Analysis of additional depths in D0220 and spatial variability of the nitrate plume along the length of the crib (from surface electrical resistivity) would be extremely useful for this comparison.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Block Island Noise Modeling Data

Noise propagation near Block Island was simulated to assess environmental impacts of impact pile driving during wind turbine construction. Computational models complement field-recorded acoustic data, providing insights into sound attenuation, spectral variability, and propagation dynamics. The dataset includes: 1. Propagation Models: Simulated underwater sound fields documenting sound pressure and directional variability across frequency bands and distances. 2. Spectral Analysis (LTSA): Long-term averages and processed outputs calculating acoustic intensity over time. 3. Visualization Files: Graphs, 2D/3D simulation results, and reference calculations used in sound modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model-based analysis of solute transport and potential carbon mineralization in the active layer of a hillslope underlain by permafrost with seasonal variability and climate change

Permafrost carbon, stored in frozen organic matter across vast Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, represents a substantial and increasingly vulnerable carbon reservoir. As global temperatures rise, the accelerated thawing of permafrost releases greenhouse gases, exacerbating climate change. However, freshly thawed permafrost carbon may also experience lateral transport by groundwater flow to surface water recipients such as rivers and lakes, increasing the terrestrial-to-aquatic transfer of permafrost carbon. Mobilization and subsurface transport mechanisms are poorly understood and not accounted for in global climate models, leading to high uncertainties in the predictions of the permafrost carbon feedback. Here, we focus on a hillslope in Endalen Valley, Svalbard, as a representative example of a high-Arctic hillslope underlain by continuous permafrost. We analyze solute transport in the form of a non-reactive tracer representing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) using a physics-based numerical model with the objective to study governing cryotic and hydrodynamic transport mechanisms relevant for warming permafrost regions. We first analyze transport times for DOC pools at different locations within the active layer under present-day climatic conditions and proceed to study susceptibility for deeper ancient carbon release in the upper permafrost due to thaw under different warming scenarios. Results suggest that DOC in the active layer near the permafrost table experiences rapid lateral transport upon thaw due to saturated conditions and lateral flow, while DOC close to the ground surface experiences slower transport due to flow in unsaturated soil. Deeper permafrost carbon release exhibits vastly different transport behaviors depending on warming and thaw rate. Gradual warming leads to small fractions of DOC being mobilized every year, while the majority moves vertically through percolation and cryosuction. Abrupt thaw resulting from a single very warm year leads to faster lateral transport times, similar to active layer DOC released in saturated conditions. Lastly, we analyze the potential susceptibility of DOC to mineralization to CO 2 prior to export due to soil moisture and temperature conditions. We find that high liquid saturation during transport coincides with very low mineralization rates and potentially inhibits mineralization into CO 2 before export. Overall, the results highlight the importance of subsurface hydrologic and thermal conditions for the retention and lateral export of permafrost carbon by subsurface flow.

Hamm, Alexandra [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)] (ORCID:↗

DOE OSTI2020

COMBLE-ISLAS water isotopes in precipitation (COMBLEISLASISO)

During the measurement period, precipitation was sampled on daily to sub-daily basis with a sampling kit consiting of a clear plastic box (60x40x40 cm) mounted to a ground structure. Daily sampling lasted from 22 Feb to 24 Mar 2020. At a fixed time of day (10 UTC), samples were collected and the sampling box cleaned for the next sample. Additionally, during intense observations periods (IOPs) announced by ISLAS, ARMS scientists increased sampling frequency to sub-daily sampling. During the campaign period, 2 IOPs were conducted, with in total 12 samples taken. IOP1 lasted from 27 Feb 10 to 02 Mar 2020, and IOP2 lasted from 12 Mar to 14 Mar 2020. Solid precipitation in the box was then melted, transferred to an 8 ml glass vial, sealed and shipped to FARLAB (University of Bergen, Norway) for stable water isotope analysis. Measured stable isotope composition of precipitation samples will be related to conditions at other sampling locations, and at the evaporation site to inform about conservation of water isotope quantities. In the period from 22 Feb to 24 Mar, 23 daily samples were collected at 10 UTC for stable water isotope analysis. During the entire sampling period, a high variability of precipitation phase was encountered. Most samples were recovered in the form of graupel/snow (12 samples), as rain (7 samples), and the remaining samples fell as graupel, snow, rain or frozen rain. Precipitation amounts varied between <1 mm (26 Feb) and 140 mm (25 Feb) within the sampling box. Furthermore, higher-resolution sampling was conducted during 2 intense observation periods (IOPs). During IOP1, lasting from 27 Feb 10 UTC to 02 Mar 10 UTC, 7 samples were collected, all of them as solid phase precipitation. IOP2 lasted from 12 Mar 10 UTC to 14 Mar 09 UTC, and 5 samples (all as graupel/snow) were collected. Samples were processed according to FARLAB standard measurement procedures. In short, samples were transferred to 1.5 ml glass vials with rubber/PTFE septa (part #548-0907, VWR, USA). An autosampler (A0325, Picarro Inc) transferred ca. 2µl per injection into a high-precision vapourizer (A0211, Picarro Inc, USA) heated to 110°C. After blending with dry N2 (< 5 ppm H2O) the gas mixture was directed into the measurement cavity of a Cavity-Ring Down Spectrometer (L2140-i, Picarro Inc) for about 7 min with a typical water concentration of 20 000 ppm. Memory effects were reduced by two times measuring a vapour mixture at a mixing ratio of 50 000 ppm, obtained from 2 injections of 2 µl for 5 min at the beginning of each new sample vial. Thereafter, another 6 injections of 2 µl per sample were measured individually as described above, and averages of the last 5 injections were used for further processing. Three standards were measured at the beginning and end of each batch, including a drift standard DI2 (δD: -50.72±0.73 permil, δ18O: -7.63±0.10 permil), and for calibration the laboratory standards GLW (δD: -307.79±0.75 permil, δ18O: -40.02±0.07 permil) and EVAP2 (δD: 9.52±0.65 permil, δ18O: 1.81±0.13 permil). A detailed calibration report is included with the final uploaded data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Drizzle Parameters by Aircraft Sampling

In-cloud supersaturation is calculated from aircraft derived measurements of the in-cloud vertical gradient of liquid water content, vertical velocity, the pt and 3 rd cloud droplet radius moments and a parameter related to the heat and mass transport during condensation and evaporation of cloud droplets. The aircraft data where taken during the VOCALS 2008 study in marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of Chile. Approximately 16000 discrete samples, 2.5 meter in length, were used in the present analysis of in-cloud supersaturation and its variability, both of which are indicative of turbulent processes within the cloud and their significant impact on drizzle formation. Two additional drizzle parameters, the eddy persistence time and the variance of fluctuations in in-cloud droplet growth rate were also estimated from this data set. These results will help to constrain parameterizations of underlying turbulent microphysical processes of clouds and thereby advance the future development of warm cloud and precipitation models for climate simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy management system, method of controlling one or more energy storage devices and control unit for one or more power storage units

Systems, methods and apparatuses are provided for reducing peak energy demand and to smooth intermittent energy profiles from onsite variable energy sources and loads. Some embodiments use system level and device level analysis and optimization to adaptively adjust the operation of a behind the meter energy storage (BMES) to smooth out energy generation variabilities and follow a reference load signal, including at short time resolutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Variability in NGC 3201 Giant Stars and Its Impact on Their Spectroscopic [Fe/H] Determination

We present the analysis of 34 light curves in V and I of 17 giant stars in the globular cluster NGC 3201 to check if such stars are variable and if their variability has some kind of impact on the iron abundance as obtained from spectroscopic measurements. First, we computed the generalized Lomb–Scargle and phase dispersion minimization periodograms of the sample to check if the stars were variables. In this way, seven stars of the sample were found to be nonvariable, two stars are considered as possible variables, and eight stars were found to be variable, with periods ranging from 0.0881 ± 0.0001 to 0.5418 ± 0.0027 days. According to the literature, the variables have distinct values of [Fe I/H]: the three most metal-rich stars are in the red giant branch (RGB) stage, one has [Fe I/H] = −1.37 dex, while the other two have [Fe I/H] = −1.31 dex. The two most metal-poor variables have [Fe I/H] = −1.61 dex and [Fe I/H] = −1.62 dex, and are AGB stars; the remaining variables have [Fe I/H] = −1.44, −1.48, and −1.50 dex, the first two being RGB stars while the last is an AGB star. On the other hand, stars that appear to be nonvariable have −1.56 ≤ [Fe I/H] ≤ −1.40. We conclude that variability somehow affects the spectroscopic determination of the iron content of giant stars in NGC 3201, increasing the iron spread of the cluster. If variability is not taken into account, this spread could be incorrectly interpreted as due to an intrinsic iron spread affecting the stars of the cluster.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A priori error analysis of high-order LL* (FOSLL*) finite element methods

A number of non-standard finite element methods have been proposed in recent years, each of which derives from a specific class of PDE-constrained norm minimization problems. The most notable examples are LL* methods. In this work, we argue that all high-order methods in this class should be expected to deliver substandard uniform h-refinement convergence rates. In fact, one may not even see rates proportional to the polynomial order p > 1 when the exact solution is a constant function. Here, we show that the convergence rate is limited by the regularity of an extraneous Lagrange multiplier variable which naturally appears via a saddle-point analysis. In turn, limited convergence rates appear because the regularity of this Lagrange multiplier is determined, in part, by the geometry of the domain. Numerical experiments support our conclusions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Nature of an Unusual Post-starburst Quasar with Exceptionally Strong Ne v Emission

We present a z = 0.94 quasar, SDSS J004846.45-004611.9, discovered in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) BOSS survey. A visual analysis of this spectrum reveals highly broadened and blueshifted narrow emission lines, in particular, [Ne v] λ3426 and [O III ] λ5007, with outflow velocities of 4000 km s -1 , along with unusually large [Ne v] λ3426/[Ne III ] λ3869 ratios. The gas shows higher ionization at higher outflow velocities, indicating a connection between the powerful outflow and the unusual strength of the high ionization lines. The spectral energy distribution and the i – W3 color of the source reveal that it is likely a core extremely red quasar (ERQ); a candidate population of young active galactic nuclei (AGN) that are violently blowing out gas and dust from their centers. The dominance of host galaxy light in its spectrum and its fortuitous position in the SDSS S82 region allows us to measure its star formation history and investigate variability for the first time in an ERQ. Our analysis indicates that SDSS J004846.45-004611.9 underwent a short-lived starburst phase 400 Myr ago and was subsequently quenched, possibly indicating a time lag between star formation quenching and the onset of AGN activity. We also find that the strong extinction can be uniquely attributed to the AGN and does not persist in the host galaxy, contradicting a scenario where the source has recently transitioned from being a dusty submillimeter galaxy. In our relatively shallow photometric data, the source does not appear to be variable at 0.24–2.4 μm in the rest frame, most likely due to the dominant contribution of host galaxy starlight at these wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking CO₂ storage simulations: Results from the 11 th Society of Petroleum Engineers Comparative Solution Project

The 11 th Society of Petroleum Engineers Comparative Solution Project (shortened SPE11 herein) benchmarked simulation tools for geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage. A total of 45 groups from leading research institutions and industry across the globe signed up to participate, with 18 ultimately contributing valid results that were included in the comparative study reported here. This paper summarizes the SPE11 results. A comprehensive introduction and qualitative discussion of the submitted data are provided, together with an overview of online resources for accessing the full depth of data. A global metric for analyzing the relative distance between submissions is proposed and used to conduct a quantitative analysis of the submissions. This analysis attempts to statistically resolve the key aspects influencing the variability between submissions. The study shows that the major qualitative variation between the submitted results is related to thermal effects, dissolution-driven convective mixing, and resolution of facies discontinuities. Moreover, a strong dependence on grid resolution is observed across all three versions of the SPE11. However, our quantitative analysis suggests that the observed variations are predominantly influenced by factors not documented in the technical responses provided by the participants. We therefore identify that unreported variations due to human choices within the process of setting up, conducting, and reporting on the simulations underlying each SPE11 submission are at least as impactful as the computational choices reported.

Nordbotten, Jan M. [Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Norw↗

DOE OSTI2026

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating Social Vulnerability Variables in Measures to Quantify Access to Opportunities

Herein this study quantifies access to travel opportunities to understand what societal factors are linked with local access and to identify communities with reduced access. We introduce a method to compare accessibility across all census tracts in the United States that can be used across geographically diverse communities ranging from sparsely to densely populated areas. This study considers six key opportunities which we consider essential for all communities (grocery stores, public schools, daycares, primary care doctors, pharmacies, and parks), and six additional destinations which can be viewed as a social safety net (homeless shelters, women’s shelters, food pantries, libraries, vocational schools, and banks). We quantify accessibility to these opportunities within a 15 min walk, transit trip, bicycle ride, and automobile drive for every census tract in the United States, and observe a decrease in vehicle miles traveled and vehicle ownership in tracts with increased walkability. Through analysis at the census tract level, this study incorporates variables of social vulnerability with these cumulative opportunity metrics to better understand diminished accessibility as attributed to social and racial inequities. As example findings, we find decreased access to financial services in communities with high minority and limited English speaking populations, no apparent change in access for childcare in communities with high percentages of single-parent families, and potentially increased or decreased access to women’s healthcare resources for Black women depending on the travel mode.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗