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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3: Flight Dynamics

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m2 solar sail in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar sail↗
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
NASA NTRS1974

The tropospheric calibration model for Mariner Mars 1971

The effects of the troposphere on arrival time, range, and range rate measurement of radio signals propagating from spacecraft are examined. A tropospheric calibration model which takes into account seasonal variations, various elevations, and apparent location changes was developed. A comparison was made of the effects before and after calibration. Without calibration, a 16-m change in the distance off the spin axis, is induced for a 10-deg minimum elevation symmetrical pass. Even after calibration with the old model, the error in spin axis is still greater than 1 m. Calibration results and estimated uncertainties of the model are given in tabular form. Test results also show that the model met the required accuracy for the Mariner Mars 1971 mission.

C. C. Chao↗
NASA NTRS1984

The energy spectrum of electrons and cosmic-ray confinement A new measurement and its interpretation

Measurements of the cosmic ray flux and electron energy spectrum from 5 GeV to 300 GeV, with an absolute uncertainty in the flux level of + or - 10 percent at low energies and + or - 30 percent at 100 GeV, are described. The measured spectrum appears to represent the competing processes of radiative energy loss in the interstellar medium and leakage out of the Galaxy. In the framework of the leaky box model and diffusion models, the result is most consistent with the picture of cosmic ray electrons spending an average of 10 million years in the Galaxy independent of electron energy, probably propagating in a halo as well as in the galactic disk.

Tang, K.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Contingency Planning for Planetary Rovers

There has been considerable work in AI on planning under uncertainty. But this work generally assumes an extremely simple model of action that does not consider continuous time and resources. These assumptions are not reasonable for a Mars rover, which must cope with uncertainty about the duration of tasks, the power required, the data storage necessary, along with its position and orientation. In this paper, we outline an approach to generating contingency plans when the sources of uncertainty involve continuous quantities such as time and resources. The approach involves first constructing a "seed" plan, and then incrementally adding contingent branches to this plan in order to improve utility. The challenge is to figure out the best places to insert contingency branches. This requires an estimate of how much utility could be gained by building a contingent branch at any given place in the seed plan. Computing this utility exactly is intractable, but we outline an approximation method that back propagates utility distributions through a graph structure similar to that of a plan graph.

Dearden, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2003

Incremental Contingency Planning

There has been considerable work in AI on planning under uncertainty. However, this work generally assumes an extremely simple model of action that does not consider continuous time and resources. These assumptions are not reasonable for a Mars rover, which must cope with uncertainty about the duration of tasks, the energy required, the data storage necessary, and its current position and orientation. In this paper, we outline an approach to generating contingency plans when the sources of uncertainty involve continuous quantities such as time and resources. The approach involves first constructing a "seed" plan, and then incrementally adding contingent branches to this plan in order to improve utility. The challenge is to figure out the best places to insert contingency branches. This requires an estimate of how much utility could be gained by building a contingent branch at any given place in the seed plan. Computing this utility exactly is intractable, but we outline an approximation method that back propagates utility distributions through a graph structure similar to that of a plan graph.

Dearden, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Alternative Trait-Scaling Hypotheses for the Maximum Photosynthetic Carboxylation Rate (V (sub cmax)) on Global Gross Primary Production

The maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (V (sub cmax)) is an influential plant trait that has multiple scaling hypotheses, which is a source of uncertainty in predictive understanding of global gross primary production (GPP). Four trait-scaling hypotheses (plant functional type, nutrient limitation, environmental filtering, and plant plasticity) with nine specific implementations were used to predict global V(sub cmax) distributions and their impact on global GPP in the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM). Global GPP varied from 108.1 to 128.2 petagrams of Carbon (PgC) per year, 65 percent of the range of a recent model intercomparison of global GPP. The variation in GPP propagated through to a 27percent coefficient of variation in net biome productivity (NBP). All hypotheses produced global GPP that was highly correlated (r equals 0.85-0.91) with three proxies of global GPP. Plant functional type-based nutrient limitation, underpinned by a core SDGVM hypothesis that plant nitrogen (N) status is inversely related to increasing costs of N acquisition with increasing soil carbon, adequately reproduced global GPP distributions. Further improvement could be achieved with accurate representation of water sensitivity and agriculture in SDGVM. Mismatch between environmental filtering (the most data-driven hypothesis) and GPP suggested that greater effort is needed understand V(sub cmax) variation in the field, particularly in northern latitudes.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
NASA NTRS2008

Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

Sasamoto, Washito↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cone Model for Halo CMEs: Application to Space Weather Forecasting

In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

Xie, Hong↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Example Crossover Experiment for Testing New Vicarious Calibration Techniques for Satellite Ocean Color Radiometry

Vicarious calibration of ocean color satellites involves the use of accurate surface measurements of water-leaving radiance to update and improve the system calibration of ocean color satellite sensors. An experiment was performed to compare a free-fall technique with the established MOBY measurement. We found in the laboratory that the radiance and irradiance instruments compared well within their estimated uncertainties for various spectral sources. The spectrally averaged differences between the NIST values for the sources and the instruments were less than 2.5% for the radiance sensors and less than 1.5% for the irradiance sensors. In the field, the sensors measuring the above-surface downwelling irradiance performed nearly as well as they had in the laboratory, with an average difference of less than 2%. While the water-leaving radiance, L(sub w) calculated from each instrument agreed in almost all cases within the combined instrument uncertainties (approximately 7%), there was a relative bias between the two instrument classes/techniques that varied spectrally. The spectrally averaged (400 nm to 600 nm) difference between the two instrument classes/techniques was 3.1 %. However the spectral variation resulted in the free fall instruments being 0.2% lower at 450 nm and 5.9% higher at 550 nm. Based on the analysis of one matchup, the bias in the L(sub w), was similar to that observed for L(sub u)(1 m) with both systems, indicating the difference did not come from propagating L(sub u)(1 m) to L(sub w).

Voss, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

Millwater, H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Computational Modeling of Meteor-Generated Ground Pressure Signatures

We present a thorough validation of a computational approach to predict infrasonic signatures of centimeter-sized meteoroids. We assume that the energy deposition along the meteor trail is dominated by atmospheric drag and simulate the steady, inviscid flow of air in thermochemical equilibrium to compute the meteoroid's near-body pressure signature. This signature is then propagated through a stratified and windy atmosphere to the ground using a methodology adapted from aircraft sonic-boom analysis. An assessment of the numerical accuracy of the near field and the far field solver is presented. The results show that when the source of the signature is the cylindrical Mach-cone, the simulations closely match the observations. The prediction of the shock rise-time, the zero-peak amplitude of the waveform, and the duration of the positive pressure phase are consistently within 10% of the measurements. Uncertainty in the shape of the meteoroid results in a poorer prediction of the trailing part of the waveform. Overall, our results independently verify energy deposition estimates deduced from optical observations.

Computational↗
NASA NTRS2021

Intercomparison of Middle Atmospheric Meteorological Analyses for the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010

Detailed meteorological analyses based on observations extending through the middle atmosphere (~15 to 100 km altitude) can provide key information to whole atmosphere modelling systems regarding the physical mechanisms linking day-to-day changes in ionospheric electron density to meteorological variability near the Earth’s surface. However, the extent to which independent middle atmosphere analyses differ in their representation of wave-induced coupling to the ionosphere is unclear. To begin to address this issue, we present the first intercomparison among four such analyses, JAGUAR-DAS, MERRA-2, NAVGEM-HA, and WACCMX+DART, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 2009-2010 winter, which includes a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This intercomparison examines the altitude, latitude, and time dependences of zonal mean zonal winds and temperatures among these four analyses over the 1 December 2009 – 31 March 2010 period, as well as latitude and altitude dependences of monthly mean amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal migrating solar tides, the eastward propagating diurnal zonal wave number 3 nonmigrating tide, and traveling planetary waves associated with the quasi-5-day and quasi-2-day Rossby modes. Our results show generally good agreement among the four analyses up to the stratopause (~50 km altitude). Large discrepancies begin to emerge in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere owing to (1) differences in the types of satellite data assimilated by each system and (2) differences in the details of the global atmospheric models used by each analysis system. The results of this intercomparison provide initial estimates of uncertainty in analyses commonly used to constrain middle atmospheric meteorological variability in whole atmosphere model simulations.

John P Mccormack↗
NASA NTRS1989

Preliminary analyses of space radiation protection for lunar base surface systems

Radiation shielding analyses are performed for candidate lunar base habitation modules. The study primarily addresses potential hazards due to contributions from the galactic cosmic rays. The NASA Langley Research Center's high energy nucleon and heavy ion transport codes are used to compute propagation of radiation through conventional and regolith shield materials. Computed values of linear energy transfer are converted to biological dose-equivalent using quality factors established by the International Commision of Radiological Protection. Special fluxes of heavy charged particles and corresponding dosimetric quantities are computed for a series of thicknesses in various shield media and are used as an input data base for algorithms pertaining to specific shielded geometries. Dosimetric results are presented as isodose contour maps of shielded configuration interiors. The dose predictions indicate that shielding requirements are substantial, and an abbreviated uncertainty analysis shows that better definition of the space radiation environment as well as improvement in nuclear interaction cross-section data can greatly increase the accuracy of shield requirement predictions.

Nealy, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Optical PAyload for Lasercomm Science (OPALS) link validation

Recently several day and nighttime links under diverse atmospheric conditions were completed using the Optical Payload for Lasercomm Science (OPALS) flight system on-board the International Space Station (ISS). In this paper we compare measured optical power and its variance at either end of the link with predictions that include atmospheric propagation models. For the 976 nm laser beacon mean power transmitted from the ground to the ISS the predicted mean irradiance of 10's of microwatts per square meter close to zenith and its decrease with range and increased air mass shows good agreement with predictions. The irradiance fluctuations sampled at 100 Hz also follow the expected increase in scintillation with air mass representative of atmospheric coherence lengths at zenith at 500 nm in the 3-8 cm range. The downlink predicted power of 100's of nanowatts was also reconciled within the uncertainty of the atmospheric losses. Expected link performance with uncoded bit-error rates less than 1E-4 required for the Reed-Solomon code to correct errors for video, text and file transmission was verified. The results of predicted and measured powers and fluctuations suggest the need for further study and refinement.

ISS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Relativity time-delay experiments utilizing 'Mariner' spacecraft

Relativity predicts that the transit time of a signal propagated from the earth to a spacecraft and retransmitted back to earth ought to exhibit an additional, variable time delay. The present work describes some of the analytical techniques employed in experiments using Mariner spacecraft designed to test the accuracy of this prediction. Two types of data are analyzed in these relativity experiments; these include phase-coherent, two-way Doppler shift and round-trip, transit-time measurements. Results of Mariner 6 and 7 relativistic time-delay experiments are in agreement with Einstein's theory of general relativity with an uncertainty of 3%.

Esposito, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Are cosmic rays effective for ionization of protoplanetary disks?

The principal uncertainty in studying the magnetic properties of protoplanetary disks concerns the ionization levels of the disk's gas. The low gas temperature precludes thermal ionization, leaving cosmic rays as the dominant source of ionization. It has been shown that the resulting electrical conductivity is just high enough for a MHD dynamo to produce contemporaneously a magnetic field in most of the extended parts of a turbulent protoplanetary disk. Here we argue that the effectiveness of cosmic rays to ionize the bulk of the gas is impaired by the influence of the generated magnetic field on the propagation of cosmic rays within a disk. Cosmic rays scatter on magnetic inhomogeneities, and, as a result, their penetration depth decreases to only a fraction of the disk half-thickness, resulting in a severe depletion of free charge from the midplane regions of a disk. That, in turn, undercuts the dynamo mechanism, so extended parts of the disk are free from a dynamically significant magnetic field. We also point out that any additional, even small, in situ source of ionization, such as radioactive Al-26, may again make a dynamo a viable regeneration process capable of producing a dynamically important magnetic field.

Dolginov, Arkady Z.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Toward estimation of H(sub 0) from VLBI observations of the gravitational lens system 0957+561

We have analyzed two epochs of 6 cm very long base interferometry (VLBI) observations of the two brightest images, A and B, of the gravitationally lensed quasar 0957+561 in a search for correlated structural evolution from which to estimate delta tau(sub BA), the difference in propagation time for light traveling between the quasar and Earth along the paths corresponding to these two images. However, we detected only marginal increases in the separation between the core and the innermost jet component in each image over the 2 year interval 1987-1989. Because monitoring image brightness variations has since led to apparently reliable estimates of delta tau(sub BA), we intend to use spatial variations in the relative magnification field across the extent of the images to constrain further the mass distribution of the lens, which is now the principal contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of H(sub 0) from this lens system.

Campbell, R. M.↗