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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Spatial Heterogeneity in Surface Turbulent Heat Flux in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Advances in numerical modeling of cloud dynamics are driving a need for improved land model prediction at convective storm scales. Here, satellite and ground-based vegetation remote sensing data were combined with land model experiments to more accurately characterize land surface spatial heterogeneity in the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). The new subgrid classification of plant functional types (PFT) and leaf area index (LAI) enables consistent comparison between models and ground-based flux measurements in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Errors in vegetation data sets (inferred from comparison between 250 m satellite and ground-based LAI), while large, had less impact on the simulated characteristics of spatial heterogeneity compared to errors in model representation of surface energy partitioning (between latent and sensible heat flux) and its relationship to LAI. Predicted spatial heterogeneity in surface energy partitioning was enhanced after replacing soil and stomatal resistance parameters with a new set that better predicts the observed relationship to LAI. These modifications increase the number of smaller (mesoscale) dry land patches having higher sensible heat flux. The parameter experiments suggest that vegetation state and processes (transpiration) act to broaden the size spectrum of surface heat flux heterogeneity, which can influence clouds and convective initiation. Moreover, improvements in vegetation input data and model parameters had partially compensating effects on surface flux heterogeneity, indicating the importance of evaluating input data and parameterizations together to improve prediction at higher spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Terrain as a Turbulence Generation Method

When driving microscale large-eddy simulations with mesoscale model solutions, turbulence will take space to develop, known as fetch, on the microscale domain. To reduce fetch, it is common to add perturbations near the boundaries to speed up turbulence development. However, when simulating domains over complex terrain, it is possible that the terrain itself can quickly generate turbulence within the boundary layer. It is shown here that rugged terrain is able to generate turbulence without the assistance of a perturbation strategy; however, the levels of turbulence generated are improved when adding perturbations at the inlet. Flow over smoothed, but not flat, terrain fails to generate adequate turbulence throughout the boundary layer in all tests conducted herein. Sensitivities to the strength of the mean wind speed and boundary layer height are investigated and show that higher wind speeds produce turbulence over terrain features that slower wind speeds do not. Further, by increasing the height of the capping inversion, the effectiveness of topography alone to generate turbulence throughout the depth of the boundary is diminished. In all cases, the inclusion of a perturbation strategy improved simulation performance with respect to turbulence development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy transport analysis of NSTX plasmas with the TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models

This work presents a study of plasma transport at low aspect ratio on the National Spherical Torus Experiment tokamak, where the turbulent and neoclassical energy fluxes calculated by the quasilinear Trapped Gyro Landau Fluid (TGLF) model and the multi species drift-kinetic Neoclassical solver (NEO) are validated against experimental data. The turbulent energy transport of two plasma discharges, one in the L-mode confinement regime and another in the H-mode regime, is dominated by electrostatic drift-wave instabilities, while the ion heat transport has a significant neoclassical contribution. The data analysis workflow is described in detail to understand how the variations of mapping and fitting of experimental data affect the power balance solution and subsequent flux-matching plasma profile predictions with the TGYRO solver. On average, the predicted plasma profiles are consistent with experimental data. However, the solutions are sensitive to various input parameters, including boundary conditions, and the electron-ion coupling. Linear gyrokinetic stability analysis demonstrates close agreement of the real frequencies of unstable modes between TGLF and CGYRO gyrokinetic simulations, but higher growth rates are predicted by TGLF, especially for the H-mode case. Estimates of the low-k modes' contributions to the total flux are consistent with linear stability analysis and the E × B suppression of turbulence in TGLF simulations with the SAT1 saturation model, while the SAT2 saturation model over-predicts the low-k modes' contribution in the H-mode case. Moreover, the results with SAT1 model are consistent with power balance analysis, which indicates only neoclassical ion energy fluxes inside ρ < 0.4 in the L-mode case and $\rho \unicode{x2A7D} 0.7$ in the H-mode case. The presence of multi-scale turbulence and ion-scale driven zonal flow mixing effects are also observed in TGLF scans of the electron turbulent heat flux over a range of temperature gradients and the electron-ion temperature ratio, which could explain the strong model sensitivity to variations of input parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

CFD Evaluation of Pressure Change Along Coolant Passages in Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor with Nek5000

To support the design efforts of advanced sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), a series of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are performed to investigate the pressure change along various flow passages in the proposed SFR system. The simulations are carried out with the state-of-the-art spectral element flow solver, Nek5000. Two specific case studies are presented in this paper: the flow exiting the axial neutron reflector channels and the flow entering the fuel pin bundle. Due to the high Reynolds numbers expected, a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach is necessary to model the turbulence. A newly developed regularized k-omega RANS model is adopted in the related CFD calculations. The first case study explores the effect of Reynolds number on the pressure change when flow exits the reflector channels. The pressure change in this case has two major contributors: the change due to wall friction and the Bernoulli effect. It is noted that the nondimensional pressure loss follows a log-linear trend up to Re = 10 5 , and then the trend is flattened. In the second case study, the advanced NekNek coupling capability is tested where an integral domain can be divided into multiple subdomains with coupling interfaces, which would greatly ease the meshing process of complex engineering geometries and potentially save computational resources. The preliminary results obtained so far confirm the consistency between the NekNek results and those produced by regular Nek5000 simulation. The presented work demonstrates the readiness and flexibility of the related CFD techniques, which is part of the broader effort to leverage cutting-edge CFD to inform the advanced nuclear reactor designs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Energy Forecasting with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Siemens Energy, Inc. (Siemens) to develop a wind resource forecasting tool. LLNL was to develop an independent high-resolution mesoscale modeling capability forecasting tool that could be implemented in conjunction with existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide forecasting of wind resources using local observations of winds and temperature. Research with LLNL’s state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation meteorological prediction model, based on the community WRF model and innovative turbulence parameterizations, would improve that model’s applicability to large wind farms offshore and in complex terrain. The modeling capability would include uncertainty quantification. Finally, the application of the modeling tool and existing global climate change predictions would enable the delineation of the likely effects of climate change on wind resources. Siemens was to provide high time resolution hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams, including temperature profiles from wind farms, for LLNL to incorporate into the modeling system, to validate and tune this forecasting model for their locations of interest. These data streams would also be used for longer-term studies of correlations of wind resources to climate oscillations to indicate how long-term climate change trends may affect the available wind resource. Siemens would also provide information and observations of turbine wakes for incorporation into the modeling tool. By implementing state-of-the-art turbulence parameterizations into a simulation model and/or ensembles of simulation models, and by integrating real-time hub height wind speed and other meteorological datastreams from wind farms into that model or ensemble of models, LLNL would develop a forecasting tool that could be implemented by Siemens as an add-on to existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide owners with useful resource forecasting. The desired outcome was that the accuracy level of the output would be sufficient to substantiate power output commitments. The final deliverable for this work would consist of a document outlining the algorithms and software tools that could be integrated into Siemens Wind Park Supervisor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced-model scrape-off layer turbulence (nSOLT) simulations comparing three fueling scenarios

The 2D scrape-off-layer turbulence code (nSOLT) includes 1D Boltzmann neutral–plasma interactions, a model of divertor recycling (introduced here), and a fixed source of plasma concentrated at the core-side boundary. Three fueling methods are considered herein: (1) neutral injection in the far-SOL is accomplished by specifying the density of Franck–Condon distributed neutrals streaming in from the boundary. (2) Divertor recycling is modeled by injecting a fraction of the particle parallel flux in the scrape-off layer (SOL) back into the edge region as a source of plasma. (3) A constant source fuels the edge plasma from the core-side boundary to model pellet injection. For machine parameters (B, R m , and L // ) illustrative of the MAST-U device, and for a deuterium plasma, turbulent equilibria are obtained that share the same plasma fueling rate for each of the three fueling methods, with only one of the sources on in each case. In the presence of self-consistent turbulence, quasi-steady plasma and neutral (deuterium) profiles, fueling efficiencies, SOL transparencies, and heat flux widths are compared. Characteristics of the turbulent fluctuations, including skewness, cross-phases, and power spectra, are described. The calculated fueling efficiencies, SOL transparencies to neutral penetration, and many of the turbulent properties are remarkably similar for all three fueling methods despite significant differences in the plasma profiles. The nonlinear states of the three cases are dominated by separatrix-spanning vortex cells that control particle and heat losses into the SOL.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A subgrid model for electron-scale turbulent transport in global ion-scale gyrokinetic simulations of tokamak plasmas

A subgrid electron–temperature–gradient (ETG) model is demonstrated here which averages local electron-scale turbulence over intermediate scales in space and time to include in global ion–temperature–gradient (ITG) simulations. This approach results in ion-scale equations, which incorporate the electron heat transport from ETG turbulence and the effects of electron-scale turbulence on the ion scale. Flux-tube ETG Cyclone Base Case simulations are performed at different radial locations and a kinetic form of the flux is added to global ion-scale (IS) simulations as a source term. Analytic radial profiles of ETG heat flux are constructed and compared to flux-tube results at multiple radial locations. Different ratios of ITG to ETG heat flux levels are considered and the results of capturing ETG heat transport in global ion-scale simulations are discussed. The potential coupling of the ETG streamer potential and intermediate-scale zonal flows to the ion scale is further addressed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Global Spray Combustion Characteristics and Local Shot-to-Shot Variations in a Reacting n -Heptane Spray

In support of efforts to develop improved models of turbulent spray behavior and combustion in diesel engines, experimental data and analysis must be obtained for guidance and validation. For Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS)-based Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approaches, representative ensemble average experimental results are important. For high-fidelity models such as large eddy simulations (LES)-based CFD, precise individual experimental results are desirable. However, making comparisons between a given experiment and LES is a challenge since local parameters cannot be directly compared. In this work, an optically accessible constant pressure flow rig (CPFR) is utilized to acquire diesel-like fuel injection and reaction behavior simultaneously with three optical diagnostic techniques: rainbow Schlieren deflectometry (RSD), OH* chemiluminescence (OH*), and two-color pyrometry (2CP). The CPFR allows a large number of repeated injection experiments to be performed for statistical analysis and convergence using ensemble-averaging techniques, while maintaining highly repeatable test conditions. Even for stable test conditions, variations in local turbulent fuel–air mixing introduce variability, which manifests as significant differences in OH* and 2CP results. Experimental measurements of characteristic parameters including liquid and vapor jet penetration, liftoff length, soot temperature and concentration, and turbulent flame speed, along with the shot-to-shot variability of each dataset, are presented and discussed. Finally, a statistical method is utilized to analyze the extent of this variability, and to identify superlative injections within the dataset for discussion and analysis of shot-to-shot variations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of the cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment tool

This work presents the development of a cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment (CIERA) tool that links multiphase flow simulation predictions with the progress towards material erosion. To develop a robust erosion modeling tool, the cavitation and erosion predictions for pressurized diesel fuel flow within a channel geometry were validated over a range of Reynolds and cavitation number conditions in two different aluminum channel geometries, one featuring a rounded inlet corner and the other with a sharp inlet corner. The multiphase flow development within the channel was modeled using a compressible mixture model, where phase change was represented with the homogeneous relaxation model and the turbulent flow evolution was modeled using a dynamic structure approach for Large Eddy Simulations. To improve representation of the incubation period before material rupture over existing approaches, a physics-based metric was derived based on the cumulative energy absorbed by the solid material from repeated hydrodynamic impacts. When the average peak pressure was related to the incubation period, the incubation period and its sensitivity to changes in flow conditions were found to be overpredicted. In contrast, predictions from CIERA provided a more accurate means to qualitatively and quantitatively predict the influence of flow conditions on the incubation period before material erosion. When the predicted stored energy was related to the solid material properties to estimate the incubation period, multiphase flow simulations demonstrated accurate representation of the sensitivity of erosion severity to changes in flow conditions. The use of CIERA led to quantitative agreement of the predicted incubation period within 5% of the experimentally measured incubation period.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Eddy Simulation of Gasoline Sprays in a Lagrangian–Eulerian Framework Using the High-Order Spectral Element Method

Predicting the spray evolution using simulations requires accurate modeling of the turbulent gas-phase flow field. Here, in this study, the high-order spectral-element method (SEM), implemented in the code Nek5000, was used to provide highly resolved solutions to the turbulent flow field. Spray modeling capabilities were implemented into the Nek5000 code. The spray is modeled in a Lagrangian–Eulerian (LE) framework, where the liquid is represented by discrete parcels of droplets. The method for coupling liquid and gas in the context of SEM is described, which allows for very fine meshes to be used without affecting the stability of the solution. Large-eddy simulations (LES) of the eight-hole ECN Spray G gasoline injector were conducted. Numerical results are compared against experimental data for liquid penetration, droplet size and gas velocity. The morphology of the multiplume spray is compared against experimental data. The effect of different spray injection inputs is analyzed. It was found that using a plume direction of 33 deg and an injection cone angle of 30 deg produced the best results overall. This work shows the applicability of SEM for spray modeling applications, where use of a high-order flow solver can help us understand the multiplume spray aerodynamics and how it leads to plume collapse under certain conditions. Results also highlight the need for tuning spray input parameters in the LE framework, even when high-fidelity gas flow solutions are possible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lake

In recent decades, several lake models of varying complexity have been developed and incorporated in numerical weather prediction systems and climate models. To foster enhanced forecasting ability and verification, improvement of these lake models remains essential. This especially applies to the limited simulation capabilities of biogeochemical processes in lakes and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Here we present multi-model simulations of physical variables and dissolved gas dynamics in a temperate lake (Harp Lake, Canada). The five models (ALBM, FLake, LAKE, LAKEoneD, MTCR-1) considered within this most recent round of the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP) all captured the seasonal temperature variability well. In contrast, none of the models is able to reproduce the exact dates of ice-cover and ice-off, leading to considerable errors in the simulation of eddy diffusivity around those dates.We then conducted an additional modeling experiment with a diffusing passive tracer to isolate the effect of the eddy diffusivity on gas concentration. Remarkably, sophisticated k -" models do not demonstrate a significant difference in the vertical diffusion of a passive tracer compared to models with much simpler turbulence closures. All models simulate less intensive spring overturn compared to autumn. Reduced mixing in the models consequently leads to the accumulation of the passive tracer distribution in the water column. The lake models with a comprehensive biogeochemical module, such as ALBM and LAKE, predict dissolved oxygen dynamics adequate to the observed data. However, for the surface carbon dioxide concentration the correlation between modeled (ALBM, LAKE) and observed data is weak (~0.3). Overall our results indicate the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models, thereby contributing to enhanced weather prediction and climate projection capabilities.

Guseva, Sofya↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-Driven Convolutional Autoencoder Approach for CFD Data Compressions: Preprint

With the growing size and complexity of turbulent flow models, data compression approaches are of the utmost importance to analyze, visualize, or restart the simulations. Recently, in-situ autoencoder-based compression approaches have been proposed and shown to be effective at producing reduced representations of turbulent flow data. However, these approaches focus solely on training the model using point-wise sample reconstruction losses that do not take advantage of the physical properties of turbulent flows. In this paper, we show that training autoencoders with additional physics-informed regularizations, e.g., enforcing incompressibility and preserving enstrophy, improves the compression model in three ways: (i) the compressed data better conform to known physics for homogeneous isotropic turbulence without negatively impacting point-wise reconstruction quality, (ii) inspection of the gradients of the trained model uncovers changes to the learned compression mapping that can facilitate the use of explainability techniques, and (iii) as a performance byproduct, training losses are shown to converge up to 12x faster than the baseline model.

auto-encoders↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accuracy Enhancement of Nuclear Power Plant Simulators Utilizing High Accuracy Simulation Predictions

More recently, reactor core simulators for core designs associated with commercial nuclear power plants that utilize what is believed to be higher fidelity models have been developed. Features such as neutronics models that utilize transport equation solvers with fine spatial meshes and many energy-groups, thermal-hydraulic models that utilize sub-channel solvers with fine spatial mesh and capable of treating a wide range of fluid conditions, and fuel-coolant chemistry interaction models capable of treating CRUD deposition are to be found in these higher fidelity core simulators. These reactor core simulators require access to higher performance computers, characterized by many processors, cores and large memory. So associated with utilization of these simulators is access to high performance computers and ability to accommodate in one’s workflow longer execution times. By contrast, currently used core simulators by the nuclear industry can execute on engineering workstations and have execution times of seconds to minutes. The desirability for having short execution times is not only desired for support of time critical tasks but supports the mental process of decision making by engineers. The goal of the work reported upon here has the objective of retaining the fidelity of higher fidelity models while retaining the ability to utilize engineering workstations. Beyond the core simulator goal, additional goals of this work include incorporating the just described core simulator capability into a Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) simulator, and to incorporate the resulting capability into an environment supportive of design and operational decision making associated with nuclear power stations. The model selected for the core neutronics model is the NESTLE code, for the core thermal-hydraulic model is the CTF code utilizing coarse mesh, and for the NSSS model is the RELAP5-3D code. WSC’s proprietary 3KEYMASTERTM platform is being used to provide software coupling, user interface, visualization, and reporting. The NESTLE core neutronics simulator was first integrated with the CTF core thermal-hydraulic simulator using CTF developed communication commands which are also used for CTF to communicate with RELAP5-3D under WSC’s proprietary 3KEYMASTERTM platform. To assure NESTLE prediction consistency with higher fidelity core neutronic simulators, buffer codes have been created to automatically generate from output files written by the VERA core simulator the NESTLE nodal neutronic parameter’ library, geometry, and pin-power reconstruction input files, thereby avoiding a number of challenges associated with utilizing lattice physics codes and providing consistency with VERA predictions. To treat absorber rod effects a multi-set library is utilized, where a set refers to a specific absorber rod fully inserted pattern. A coarse spatial mesh CTF model was developed with features added that support using CTF as envisioned in the engineering quality simulator. A hybrid meshing approach was implemented to allow for automated construction of models with mixed levels of refinement. Specifically, a core model could resolve some assemblies at a nodal level (4 subchannels per assembly) and others at a pin-resolution (one subchannel per coolant subchannel in the assembly). The intention is that this will allow for better resolution of limiting conditions such as DNBR and PCT, which are based on local rod and subchannel conditions. Further development was done of features that enhance the capabilities for the envisioned engineering quality simulator that has been developed, but now for RELAP-3D. The RELAP5-3D code development includes ability to model more than 999 components and the addition of the cross-channels turbulence mixing model and the void drift model that are implemented in CTF, aiming to achieve closer prediction agreement of the two codes for transient simulations, specifically, more accurate matches of the overall mass, momentum, and energy exchanges of both the liquid and gas phases between the neighboring core assemblies. Graphics were also developed for the Instructor Station for this project under WSC’s proprietary 3KEYMASTERTM platform to facilitate design and operational decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural operator transformers capture bifurcating drift-wave turbulence in fusion plasma simulations

Self-consistent modeling of turbulence-driven transport is critical for optimizing confinement in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as tokamaks and stellarators. In particular, capturing the long-term co-evolution of turbulence, flow, and background plasma profiles remains computationally challenging. Direct numerical simulation of these multiscale, highly nonlinear processes is often demanding and impractical for real-time control or design optimization. To address this bottleneck, we investigate transformer-based neural operator partial differential equation surrogates for emulating the dynamics of drift-wave turbulence bifurcation mediated by zonal flows, using the modified Hasegawa–Wakatani (MHW) model as a prototypical system. We find that the finetuned neural operator model has excellent performance in capturing the multi-spatiotemporal-scales of MHW turbulence bifurcation and is robust to testing on rare and out-of-distribution dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that a single unified model accurately predicts both quasi-steady-state turbulence and a wide range of dynamical transition processes, such as nonlinear saturation, spontaneous suppression of turbulence, and the emergence of macroscopic zonal flows, over time horizons vastly exceeding the local turbulence correlation time. This computationally efficient approach establishes a strong foundation for fast, AI-based modeling of complex, multiscale phenomena in magnetized fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental inference of neutral and impurity transport in Alcator C-Mod using high-resolution x-ray and ultra-violet spectra

We present experimental inferences of cross-field impurity transport coefficients for AlcatorC-Mod plasmas without edge-localized modes, leveraging a novel forward model for the entire Ca Kα spectrum, including satellite lines within the spectral range, to compare to high-resolution x-ray imaging crystal spectroscopy (XICS). These measurements are complemented by extreme ultra-violet (EUV) spectroscopy that constrains transport closer to the edge. Using new atomic data sets for both XICS and EUV analysis has enabled consideration of line ratios across both spectral ranges and has increased the accuracy of inferred transport coefficients. Inclusion of charge exchange between edge thermal neutrals and impurities is shown to be extremely important in C-Mod pedestals. Atomic D neutral densities from experimental D Lyα measurements at the midplane are compared to SOLPS-ITER simulations, finding good agreement. Bayesian inferences of impurity transport coefficients are presented for L-, EDA H-, and I-mode discharges, making use of the Aurora package for forward modeling and combining our spectroscopic constraints. Experimentally inferred diffusion profiles are found to match turbulent transport models at midradius within uncertainties, using both quasilinear gyro-fluid TGLF SAT-1 and nonlinear ion-scale gyrokinetic CGYRO simulations. Furthermore, significant discrepancies in convection are observed in some cases, suggesting difficulties in predictions of flat or hollow impurity profiles.

neutrals↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗